The future of Australian property prices

[Whiskers]

14 x 2 storey townhouses currently in at council waiting for building licences.

Is there a delay or problem (in the council) with getting the go ahead?

On the affordability issue... what return are you budgeting for, sale or rental?

BUt most of this discussion seems to be metro based and I am in a regional centre (Albury/Wodonga). Do the warnings equally apply to region centres?

Thanks

lindsayf , I'm in regional Qld and am personally out of the IP market atm, but getting close to getting back in, in special circumstances. Other family members are still getting a reasonable return from residential houses (mostly in regional areas) bought over some years, but their capital gain has evaporated in a couple of cases.

There are a lot of specific factors that can affect regional areas in isolation, but as a general rule I'm thinking another interest rate cut and waiting for the right cheaper lots to come along is the key.

There are still a few 'getting desperate' sellers who bought vacant land in particular before the GFC, expecting prices to keep rising with spruiking from some agents and newspaper writers among others trying to beat up business. I'm seeing considerable asking price discounts, 30 to 40% not uncommon in my wider region, trying to get a sale before the bank steps in.

 

[trainspotter]

Is there a delay or problem (in the council) with getting the go ahead?

On the affordability issue... what return are you budgeting for, sale or rent.

Like I said ... pm me for details and I will send you a raft of data and spreadsheets and funky pie graphs.

lindsayf: Same rules apply ... area specific analysis available but not info to be discussed on the boards matey boy/girl/investor in real estate.

 

[lindsayf]

Thks Whiskers

lindsayf: Same rules apply ... area specific analysis available but not info to be discussed on the boards matey boy/girl/investor in real estate.

TS
Not clear what you mean here.
Obviously area specific analysis is required..but what else are you saying here re other 'info'?

thks

 

[trainspotter]

Thks Whiskers



TS
Not clear what you mean here.
Obviously area specific analysis is required..but what else are you saying here re other 'info'?

thks

I meant I will not and cannot give this kind of analytical advice on a discussion thread. Please private message me for clarity of your situatiion.

 

[Macquack]

14 x 2 storey townhouses currently in at council waiting for building licences.

Who is the builder for this project?

 

[trainspotter]

Who is the builder for this project?

hahahaha ... good one Macquack

 

[sydboy007]

I just keep asking myself where does the money come from?

I can sort of understand if there's an external injection of funds via Chinese investors that the local economic situation becomes less relevant, but surely they can't swamp what is a $5T market?

Besides being a developer, and from so many articles it sounds like getting a development proposal across the line is a real nightmare (except for Treasurer Ponzinomics who nominates it as one thing helping to prop up Aussie property prices) how do you make money buy buying at current prices? Is it an intergenerational thing where the wealth built up by the boomers is now being depleted to help their children into the market?

I must admit I'm surprised at how things have panned out. I've looked at the fundamentals too much when I suppose it's a classic follow the trend and hope you can get out before the final popping of the bubble occurs.

I suppose high immigration has a second effect on the housing market in that road and public transport congestion is bad, and continuing to get worse. This seems to be pushing up the middle ring suburb prices as people move to where they have the best transport links to their work.

I still can't see resi property as a good investment on a net yield basis, but capital growth is still there for those with the good sense to buy in the right location.

 

[MrBurns]

I just keep asking myself where does the money come from?

I can sort of understand if there's an external injection of funds via Chinese investors that the local economic situation becomes less relevant, but surely they can't swamp what is a $5T market?

Besides being a developer, and from so many articles it sounds like getting a development proposal across the line is a real nightmare (except for Treasurer Ponzinomics who nominates it as one thing helping to prop up Aussie property prices) how do you make money buy buying at current prices? Is it an intergenerational thing where the wealth built up by the boomers is now being depleted to help their children into the market?

I must admit I'm surprised at how things have panned out. I've looked at the fundamentals too much when I suppose it's a classic follow the trend and hope you can get out before the final popping of the bubble occurs.

I suppose high immigration has a second effect on the housing market in that road and public transport congestion is bad, and continuing to get worse. This seems to be pushing up the middle ring suburb prices as people move to where they have the best transport links to their work.

I still can't see resi property as a good investment on a net yield basis, but capital growth is still there for those with the good sense to buy in the right location.

It's the same conundrum, is this the end of a cycle or the start of an upward leg ?

The Chinese are certainly back in the market and people are taking huge mortgages because of low rates, when rates do rise the fallout will be substantial, they're gambling, gambling that the market will inflate them out of trouble, sometimes it does sometimes it goes the other way.............roll the dice.

 

[Whiskers]

Like I said ... pm me for details and I will send you a raft of data and spreadsheets and funky pie graphs.

lindsayf: Same rules apply ... area specific analysis available but not info to be discussed on the boards matey boy/girl/investor in real estate.

Hey, what is this... a sales pitch... trying to sell off the plan? :

What is to stop anyone you PM the info to from posting it up somewhere anyway!

Not interested in buying a unit or searching through truck loads of info, just curious what returns you expect to get.

 

[MrBurns]

Anyone know anything about land in Clyde Victoria being sold by NRG Concepts for Super Funds ???

Sounds a bit risky to me.

 

[trainspotter]

Hey, what is this... a sales pitch... trying to sell off the plan? :

What is to stop anyone you PM the info to from posting it up somewhere anyway!

Not interested in buying a unit or searching through truck loads of info, just curious what returns you expect to get.

Basic parameters ... 600k to buy said parcel of land ... 3.8 million to construct thereon ... sale price of each unit = $385,000 ... you do the maths.

And before everyone gets on about overheads/risk/profit/costs/interest component/stamp duty/contingency etc ... that is already factored into the construction costs.

 

[sptrawler]

It's the same conundrum, is this the end of a cycle or the start of an upward leg ?

The Chinese are certainly back in the market and people are taking huge mortgages because of low rates, when rates do rise the fallout will be substantial, they're gambling, gambling that the market will inflate them out of trouble, sometimes it does sometimes it goes the other way.............roll the dice.

Perfectly put, Mr Burns.

A lot depends on the outcome, the powers that be want.

 

[sydboy007]

Perfectly put, Mr Burns.

A lot depends on the outcome, the powers that be want.

we're pretty much stuffed whatever happens

House prices fall significantly then the Govt is on the hook to keep the gang of 4 building societies from falling over. Govt debt starts to look like Ireland or Greece then.

If house prices keep rising, then the economy will just get progressively less competitive as all kinds of rents are higher, wages have to be higher to compensate for the over inflated property prices.

The major political parties don't see a problem, and the vested interests in the property sector are way too powerful to take on, and the legions of NG property owners will vote out any Govt that tries to sort the system out.

So we're left with an economy built on houses and holes with a bit of LNG thrown in.

 

[MrBurns]

we're pretty much stuffed whatever happens

House prices fall significantly then the Govt is on the hook to keep the gang of 4 building societies from falling over. Govt debt starts to look like Ireland or Greece then.

If house prices keep rising, then the economy will just get progressively less competitive as all kinds of rents are higher, wages have to be higher to compensate for the over inflated property prices.

The major political parties don't see a problem, and the vested interests in the property sector are way too powerful to take on, and the legions of NG property owners will vote out any Govt that tries to sort the system out.

So we're left with an economy built on houses and holes with a bit of LNG thrown in.

If the banks get into trouble we're all stuffed , they have to be saved but doesn't mean they wont take a hit.

They've been factoring in a housing bust for a while now while simultaneously chasing mortgage business, that's the way it works.

 

[trainspotter]

*sniff sniff* ... what's this? A start of a "BOOM" again?

Best performing house suburbs around $500,000 - Victoria !

Suburb / Median Value Now / 12-month growth / 5-year growth

Heathmont / $539,291 / 13% / 40%

Lilydale / $469,380 / 12% / 22%

Wantirna / $438,084 / 10% / 31%

http://www.news.com.au/realestate/r...mer-this-weekend/story-fncq3era-1226747103023

BANKS ??? Are they in trouble??? HARDLY !!!

Australia's big four banks have been ranked the most profitable in the developed world for the third year running, reigniting criticism about their market dominance.

With big bank profits likely to exceed $26 billion this year, figures show the Commonwealth Bank, Westpac, ANZ and NAB made better returns last year than lenders in 10 major developed countries, including Canada, the US, Britain and Europe.


Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/banks-make-71-million-profit--a-day-20130623-2oqrw.html#ixzz2iyfmZ7dh

 

[trainspotter]

we're pretty much stuffed whatever happens

House prices fall significantly then the Govt is on the hook to keep the gang of 4 building societies from falling over. Govt debt starts to look like Ireland or Greece then.

If house prices keep rising, then the economy will just get progressively less competitive as all kinds of rents are higher, wages have to be higher to compensate for the over inflated property prices.

The major political parties don't see a problem, and the vested interests in the property sector are way too powerful to take on, and the legions of NG property owners will vote out any Govt that tries to sort the system out.

So we're left with an economy built on houses and holes with a bit of LNG thrown in.

*WOW* so our economy is built on houses? HUH ? Very small factor of the economy in general. We are nothing like Greece.

Government income is tied to the size and growth of the economy, usually expressed as gross domestic product. And when we convert the debt growth shown in the chart to GDP terms, the picture looks very different. The 2011-14 debt growth is as follows: Slovenia 23.9 per cent of GDP, Spain 26.4 per cent, the UK 12.6 per cent, Greece 10.3 per cent, total OECD 9.6 per cent and the United States 8.1 per cent. Australia's increase is 6.7 per cent.
By 2014, every other country on the chart has a debt-to-GDP ratio between 1.25 and 5.6 times as big as Australia's. The chart's ''best'' performers, Germany and Switzerland, are cutting debt but, relative to GDP, still owe significantly more than Australia does.

Commonwealth debt is equal to about 10 months' revenue - most mortgage holders can only dream of such a burden.


Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/comment/de...re-isnt-one-20130816-2s289.html#ixzz2iyulspJR


I think the mining companies contribute to our economy as well http://www.thisisourstory.com.au/our-contribution.aspx

 

[CanOz]

Everyone is so quick to call asset bubbles after the last big bust in 08-09. What most fail to consider is that asset bubbles are just a cycle. Sure, the cycle will will turn at some stage, until then the trend is up....

Housing prices can be a localized thing as well. Darwin still booming?

Someone tell me where the best deals are in Sydney or Queensland please....i wish this thing would pop too so we could buy at a discount...

 

[trainspotter]

Everyone is so quick to call asset bubbles after the last big bust in 08-09. What most fail to consider is that asset bubbles are just a cycle. Sure, the cycle will will turn at some stage, until then the trend is up....

Housing prices can be a localized thing as well. Darwin still booming?

Someone tell me where the best deals are in Sydney or Queensland please....i wish this thing would pop too so we could buy at a discount...

Exackery !! Picking the time to get in and get out without getting burned is the question.

Darwin is still going strong? Tenant Creek is not part of Darwin if that is what you are alluding to CanOz?

Quite broad parameters there CanOz for the Sydney and QLD request? Belmore average price $640,000 could be the next Marrickville IMO if you are looking for "close to city suburb" (15kms not that far really) depending on budget.

Aaaahhhh Where in QLD exactly do you want to live? Slacks Creek in Logan has always done it for me:

http://www.realestate.com.au/property-house-qld-slacks+creek-114934995

Shhhhhhh don't tell anyone.

 

[FxTrader]

*sniff sniff* ... what's this? A start of a "BOOM" again?

Best performing house suburbs around $500,000 - Victoria !

Suburb / Median Value Now / 12-month growth / 5-year growth

Heathmont / $539,291 / 13% / 40%

Heathmont is a good example of why a median price can be misleading. I live nearby and know Heathmont well, it's an established area with a diverse mix of 50+ year old dilapidated weatherboard shacks, old ugly BVs, renovated and new homes. $400 to $500k buys a shack or old BV or townhouse. If you want a well presented renovated home or something modern try $700k to 1 million.

A friend has a beautiful renovated home there that's probably worth $900k+. Next door is an awful unrenovated and poorly kept 50+ yo weatherboard. The location is great but it's a mix of the good, bad and just plain ugly all on the same street.

 

[CanOz]

Exackery !! Picking the time to get in and get out without getting burned is the question.

Darwin is still going strong? Tenant Creek is not part of Darwin if that is what you are alluding to CanOz?

Quite broad parameters there CanOz for the Sydney and QLD request? Belmore average price $640,000 could be the next Marrickville IMO if you are looking for "close to city suburb" (15kms not that far really) depending on budget.

Aaaahhhh Where in QLD exactly do you want to live? Slacks Creek in Logan has always done it for me:

http://www.realestate.com.au/property-house-qld-slacks+creek-114934995

Shhhhhhh don't tell anyone.

Thanks TS...fishing must good there too I'm guessing...