The future of Australian property prices

[trainspotter]

But the reality is that is largely, if not completely driven by global conditions forcing the RBA cash rate lower and partial flow to home loan interest rates.

There is little or nothing on the domestic scene improving better housing affordability... especially when the RBA starts rising again.

I would qualify that by... maybe a bit of recession and then only for those with low debt levels and sound income.

Just frickin LOL at this one ... ummm didn't we just come through a GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS? and what happened to house prices? and what happened to our banks? and what happened to all the mortgagee in possession sales?

Chances of interest rates rising in the near to long term (due to global conditions) is less than a 5% chance and if so a very marginal lift would mean that inflation is increasing which means that house prices would be increasing at the same time. Not the first time in the rodeo for me.

 

[Whiskers]

Just frickin LOL at this one

... and back to you, like water off a ducks back, with interest! :

... ummm didn't we just come through a GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS? and what happened to house prices? and what happened to our banks? and what happened to all the mortgagee in possession sales?

Chances of interest rates rising in the near to long term (due to global conditions) is less than a 5% chance and if so a very marginal lift would mean that inflation is increasing which means that house prices would be increasing at the same time.

I suppose if you were dumb enough to think that the interaction between interest rates and inflation was going to be the same regardless of other macro and micro influences in every economic cycle...

Not the first time in the rodeo for me.

Been in a few myself dude!... and learnt a bit about how to pick, or rather be in the best position to get the best ride, along the way.

That's the trouble you get yourself into when you try to blast a specific comment with a very wide generalisation.

House price increase is not always a factor of inflation and certainly does not always equate to less affordable housing.

If you can't see windows of housing affordability opportunity where Aus inflation and interest rates differ from the US (as a general measure of outside influences), then I'll send you some glasses!... and back to school in property investing.

 

[trainspotter]

oh dear .. I can see why I have not been in here for so long .. bye bye

 

[Whiskers]

oh dear .. I can see why I have not been in here for so long .. bye bye

Whimp!

I've laid a smorgasbord of data on the table.

You have a short sharp tongue to defend and counter your scatter gun generalisation... but no fortitude for rational discussion!

PS: I'll help you out TS. Let's start with you show me a chart of direct and exact correlation between housing affordability and inflation in Aus.

 

[trainspotter]

Whimp!

I've laid a smorgasbord of data on the table.

You have a short sharp tongue to defend and counter your scatter gun generalisation... but no fortitude for rational discussion!

PS: I'll help you out TS. Let's start with you show me a chart of direct and exact correlation between housing affordability and inflation in Aus.

Just for comedy purposes only ... READ THE TITLE OF THE THREAD ... "The future of Australian property prices" ... nothing to do with "affordability" ... go do your own research.

Go and re read my posts over the past 4 years whereby I have already enucleated this information to the nth degree.

Next time drop the name calling. I believe it was you who started with the generalisations:

"But the reality is that is largely, if not completely driven by global conditions forcing the RBA cash rate lower and partial flow to home loan interest rates." This is YOUR opinion ... not a FACT

"There is little or nothing on the domestic scene improving better housing affordability... especially when the RBA starts rising again." Once again a generalisation and YOUR opinion.

"I would qualify that by... maybe a bit of recession and then only for those with low debt levels and sound income." I responded with WE HAVE JUST COME THROUGH A GFC !!!

EPIC FAIL Whiskers ... the more things change the more they stay the same ... and in your case this has never been more definitive.

Later cats

 

[Mr Z]

WE HAVE JUST COME THROUGH A GFC !!!

If only that where true, look a little closer... it is on going. Next big party should be before 2018 and it will dwarf 2008.

Keep your eye on Japan...

Oh yeah, global conditions drive our rates, that is pretty much a FACT!

 

[trainspotter]

If only that where true, look a little closer... it is on going. Next big party should be before 2018 and it will dwarf 2008.

Keep your eye on Japan...

Oh yeah, global conditions drive our rates, that is pretty much a FACT!

http://www.global-rates.com/interest-rates/central-banks/central-banks.aspx

Last time I looked the thread was still called "The future of Australian property prices"

EI: 'E was right. I was happier then and I had NOTHIN'. We used to live in this tiiiny old house, with greaaaaat big holes in the roof.

GC: House? You were lucky to have a HOUSE! We used to live in one room, all hundred and twenty-six of us, no furniture. Half the floor was missing; we were all huddled together in one corner for fear of FALLING!

TG: You were lucky to have a ROOM! *We* used to have to live in a corridor!

MP: Ohhhh we used to DREAM of livin' in a corridor! Woulda' been a palace to us. We used to live in an old water tank on a rubbish tip. We got woken up every morning by having a load of rotting fish dumped all over us! House!? Hmph.

EI: Well when I say "house" it was only a hole in the ground covered by a piece of tarpolin, but it was a house to US.

GC: We were evicted from *our* hole in the ground; we had to go and live in a lake!

TG: You were lucky to have a LAKE! There were a hundred and sixty of us living in a small shoebox in the middle of the road.

MP: Cardboard box?

TG: Aye.

MP: You were lucky. We lived for three months in a brown paper bag in a septic tank. We used to have to get up at six o'clock in the morning, clean the bag, eat a crust of stale bread, go to work down mill for fourteen hours a day week in-week out. When we got home, out Dad would thrash us to sleep with his belt!

My apologies to all the Monty's out there !

 

[Mr Z]

LOL...

Good Luck.

 

[againsthegrain]

lol @ trainspotter you might as well stick you your plan with stealing used light bulbs you won't make it in property

 

[sydboy007]

http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2013/10/60-say-property-vulnerable-to-significant-correction/

This is the first time this question has been included in the RP Data – Nine Rewards survey. The results show 60% of survey respondents believe the Australian housing market may be vulnerable to a significant correction in values. The survey didn’t probe further about what level of value decline would be considered ‘significant’, however, it is clear that there is a level of unease about the future of Australian dwelling values.

Seems like it's only investors who remain confident of the capital growth to make their extreme negative gearing pay off.

 

[trainspotter]

lol @ trainspotter you might as well stick you your plan with stealing used light bulbs you won't make it in property

You your yoyo ... get some grammar and a real job.

 

[Whiskers]

http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2013/10/60-say-property-vulnerable-to-significant-correction/

This is the first time this question has been included in the RP Data – Nine Rewards survey. The results show 60% of survey respondents believe the Australian housing market may be vulnerable to a significant correction in values. The survey didn’t probe further about what level of value decline would be considered ‘significant’, however, it is clear that there is a level of unease about the future of Australian dwelling values.

Seems like it's only investors who remain confident of the capital growth to make their extreme negative gearing pay off.

As they say, you can fool some of the people some of the time but you can't fool all the people all the time. There are still some fundamental issues that Aus has not addressed adequately to look after our best interests in a still vulnerable global economy.

My pet gripe is with the RBA policy guidelines and Terms of Reference that prevented us from receiving the benefit of lower interest rates sooner and for longer. They say they were always concerned with inflation running away, but for a large part that would have been because of external factors such as fuel prices... which would have been mitigated more with a more aggressive cash rate cut flowing through weaker upward pressure on the AUD... a more rounded less severe rise and fall.

Sure imported goods would not have been quite as cheap which would have slowed consumer spending a bit (not necessarily a bad thing) improving (pre)cautionary savings rates probably, but the AUD falls impacting on prices for imported goods like fuel would not have impacted so hard and knee jerking confidence so much.

The mining development boom as opposed to the export boom, might even have been extended a little, since a large cost to that is fuel costs and (lack of) confidence.

In a nutshell they are more concerned with the profitability of the big end of town than the wider best interest of Australia. They would have been less profitable if they cut more, sooner... but we would be in a stronger economic position as individuals and a country.

You your yoyo ... get some grammar and a real job.

Well TS, at least I understand what he means and don't hold an intellectual difficulty or typo against him.

You seem quite articulate, full of bravado, tried unsuccessfully too often to shoot down the messenger... but hardly uttered a meaningful 'message' yet!

You would be well advised to go get some manners before someone you come face to face with :hammer: you down to size... or do you just reserve this nonsense for forum trolling!

 

[trainspotter]

Well Whiskers I dips me lid to your omniscience. Tell me do you get a nose bleed from being up so high and looking down on us mere mortals? :

Try reading post #5484 for some enlightenment of how to make money in RE at the moment.

Are you threatening me Whiskers or just another internet hero banging his keyboard? me a river big boy.

It seems that there is no end to the logorrhea that extrudes it's way out of your cranium and roughly transcends onto a keyboard to be posted in here. Good Grief man you must be a HOOT at parties !

 

[Whiskers]

Try reading post #5484 for some enlightenment of how to make money in RE at the moment.

Soo, you were getting bored with general conversations about houses and prices in May 2011 and wanted to have a rant about yourself, some yield or capital gain from tin sheds.

A lot has changed since then and the discussion that you bought into with your nonsense, was about housing affordability now and in the near future... a bit of a variation from the thread title, like your tin shed.

We are happy to talk generally, in third person, about the affordability of houses, but if you prefer to tell us about yourself, your own experience with tin sheds or skyscrapers or whatever atm, that's fine... if that's what turns you on.

 

[trainspotter]

Soo, you were getting bored with general conversations about houses and prices in May 2011 and wanted to have a rant about yourself, some yield or capital gain from tin sheds.

A lot has changed since then and the discussion that you bought into with your nonsense, was about housing affordability now and in the near future... a bit of a variation from the thread title, like your tin shed.

We are happy to talk generally, in third person, about the affordability of houses, but if you prefer to tell us about yourself, your own experience with tin sheds or skyscrapers or whatever atm, that's fine... if that's what turns you on.

Oh quit your pontification and stylised point of views. You clearly are that myopic that you cannot see the wood from the trees old chum. Try posting something of relevance and stop surfing my wake, I am tired of doing all the heavy lifting for you.

In your own words "Some yield or capital gain from tin sheds" is exactly what this thread and topic is about and not some venemous spray from another internet hero pretending to be a guru. I note you used the word "WE" in regards to affordabilty .... it would seem that your grasp of english has suddenly evaporated as it was only you banging on about this subject.

I am quite happy to continue building "tin sheds or skyscrapers or whatever" for you see I am actually active in the marketplace and am actually contributing something to this thread other than fapping on about unrelated drivel. Your choice old bean to continue in this vein or you could post some ACTUAL figures correlating your vast experience in the real estate game.

And believe it or not "tin sheds or skyscrapers or whatever" are part of the future of Australian property prices.

 

[trainspotter]

Oh and another thing .... you might want to do some research on "imported fuel"

FACTS ABOUT PETROL PRICES AND THE AUSTRALIAN FUEL MARKET

International Prices

Crude oil, petrol and diesel are different products and are bought and sold in their own markets.

Each market is typically regionally-based and there are linkages and transactions between regional markets.

Prices in regional markets reflect the supply and demand balance in each market and the physical characteristics and quality of each commodity.

Prices in regional markets can be volatile and can move in different directions from each other.

This can be due to the impact of factors and events unique to one market - such as supply and demand pressures in a region, hurricanes, wars and civil unrest.
This is why focusing on relevant markets and longer term price trends is more important than daily or week-to-week price movements.

Australia’s regional market for petroleum products is the Asia-Pacific market.

Key crude oil pricing benchmarks for the Asia-Pacific market including Australia are Tapis, Dated Brent and Dubai – not West Texas Intermediate (the US crude benchmark) widely reported in the media.

The Singapore price of unleaded petrol (MOPS95 Petrol)) is the key petrol pricing benchmark for Australia.

To meet Australian fuel demand, around 15-20% of petrol is imported (mainly from Singapore).

Singapore is the regional refining and distribution centre and among the world’s largest.
If Australia’s petrol prices were below Singapore prices, Australian fuel suppliers would have no commercial incentive to import to Australia (because sales of that fuel would be at a loss here). In addition, Australian refiners would have an incentive to export production.

‘Refiner margins’ margins' are the differences between product prices and crude oil prices, both of which are set by the market, not by oil companies (eg. Singapore petrol ‘refiner margin’ = MOPS95 Petrol price minus the relevant crude oil).

http://www.aip.com.au/pricing/facts/Facts_about_Petrol_Prices_and_the_Australian_Fuel_Market.htm

Just gotta love the facts

 

[stevier95]

This forums becoming a joke with all this ****.

 

[trainspotter]

14 x 2 storey townhouses currently in at council waiting for building licences.

Sorry to the other ASFERS for being off topic for so long ... pm me for details if you want to know the specifics of this development.

 

[Joe Blow]

Folks, please keep it civil and stay on topic.

Let's not let this thread degenerate into personal attacks and pointless bickering, when we could have thoughtful, constructive discussion instead.

 

[lindsayf]

As a potential IP buyer in the next few years I'm interested in the discussions about NG IP's not necessarily being a good investment due to low rental returns and the prospect of limited capital gains in the medium/long? term.
BUt most of this discussion seems to be metro based and I am in a regional centre (Albury/Wodonga). Do the warnings equally apply to region centres?

Thanks