The future of Australian property prices

Starcraftmazter · 15 May 2012

moXJO said:
Does that include the spin off industries that are directly linked servicing the mining industry that wouldn't be there otherwise?

Not sure if that's a very valid point. The steel industry is suffering for instance because miners buy their steel from China.

Sure there is bound to be some domestic spending by the miners, but in my view it boils down to insignificance.

trainspotter said:
Post #8304 http://www.abc.net.au/pm/content/2012/s3502563.htm Monday May 14th and NOT ABS figures from last year !!!!!!!!

Where's the evidence of this 8% claim though? I still haven't seen any.

trainspotter said:
There has been a significant growth spurt in the mining sector of late.

Lol what, you think mining industry has grown from 2% to 8% employment in one year? Are you absolutely mad? Do you even realise that miners are shutting down mines and cancelling projects because the commodity bubble is bursting?

In other news, first home buyers desert the housing market:
http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2012/05/first-home-buyers-desert-housing-market/

im sparticus · 15 May 2012

At the moment in brisbane second hand appartment 2 bedroom 1 bath in six pack double brick block thats 5-10 km from the city seem to be going for 3-400k one particular one i know of sold for 350k any who out of interest founyd out it was origibally sold for 38k back in 1967 anyway thinking housed are in a b nowubble and over inflate i wanted to see just how much by so i punch those numbers into the rba inflation calculator and it tells me according to inflation the appartment should be worth $389K mr x is felling a hmm things arnt so bad after all. try it with the price of gold now and then you might get a rude shock

Starcraftmazter · 15 May 2012

im sparticus said:
At the moment in brisbane second hand appartment 2 bedroom 1 bath in six pack double brick block thats 5-10 km from the city seem to be going for 3-400k one particular one i know of sold for 350k any who out of interest founyd out it was origibally sold for 38k back in 1967 anyway thinking housed are in a b nowubble and over inflate i wanted to see just how much by so i punch those numbers into the rba inflation calculator and it tells me according to inflation the appartment should be worth $389K mr x is felling a hmm things arnt so bad after all. try it with the price of gold now and then you might get a rude shock

1967 is far too far away to measure, not to mention stagflation occurred in between then and now.

As for gold, the world came off the gold standard between then and now - and that is why gold has risen in price. To compare the cost of gold now versus 1967 considering inflation doesn't make any sense.

young-gun · 15 May 2012

im sparticus said:
At the moment in brisbane second hand appartment 2 bedroom 1 bath in six pack double brick block thats 5-10 km from the city seem to be going for 3-400k one particular one i know of sold for 350k any who out of interest founyd out it was origibally sold for 38k back in 1967 anyway thinking housed are in a b nowubble and over inflate i wanted to see just how much by so i punch those numbers into the rba inflation calculator and it tells me according to inflation the appartment should be worth $389K mr x is felling a hmm things arnt so bad after all. try it with the price of gold now and then you might get a rude shock

Lol. So first your saying that property is a great investment. Now you're telling us it doesn't even keep up with inflation? Top notch sparticus

im sparticus · 15 May 2012

This is Another reason why i think gold is in a huge speculative bubble and could trade much lower possibily even test its previous all time lows there are much better hedges for inflation and currency risk out there that actu
ally produce a positive return.

Just about everyone is on the gold bandwagon now i mean youngsters would rather have a few useless bars under there pillow thanhave a go at putting a roof over there heads. it is the original ponzi scheme. everyone is in all the gold bugs can do now is sell and the only place for prices is down.
You know what they say when the nobodys (dont want to offend butchers) are talking about xyz... well its time to sell xyz.

All this money with no where to go flodding into the stock and realestate markets. 1979 all over again.
Only this time im not in nappies. (wasnt born till the 80's so missed the turn but wont this time)

Another fun exersize was plugging the seventies highs into the inflation calculator and having it spit out $1950 odd, how interesting.

im sparticus · 15 May 2012

young-gun said:
Lol. So first your saying that property is a great investment. Now you're telling us it doesn't even keep up with inflation? Top notch sparticus

I know youve been toying with gold a little to long you may have forgotten other asset classes actually
have alot more going on than capital appreciation so i wont be rude but its time for you to shush now young-gun the adults are talking.

young-gun · 15 May 2012

im sparticus said:
I know youve been toying with gold a little to long you may have forgotten other asset classes actually
have alot more going on than capital appreciation so i wont be rude but its time for you to shush now young-gun the adults are talking.

dont kid yourself into thinking anyone at all wants to listen to the **** your spinning, young or old. i dont believe for one second the only thing a proeprty investor is interested in is rental return.

if you could make up your mind what argument you are trying to make, it would be great for the rest of us.

young-gun · 15 May 2012

im sparticus said:
This is Another reason why i think gold is in a huge speculative bubble and could trade much lower possibily even test its previous all time lows there are much better hedges for inflation and currency risk out there that actu
ally produce a positive return.

Just about everyone is on the gold bandwagon now i mean youngsters would rather have a few useless bars under there pillow thanhave a go at putting a roof over there heads. it is the original ponzi scheme. everyone is in all the gold bugs can do now is sell and the only place for prices is down.
You know what they say when the nobodys (dont want to offend butchers) are talking about xyz... well its time to sell xyz.

All this money with no where to go flodding into the stock and realestate markets. 1979 all over again.
Only this time im not in nappies. (wasnt born till the 80's so missed the turn but wont this time)

Another fun exersize was plugging the seventies highs into the inflation calculator and having it spit out $1950 odd, how interesting.

I think you need to do some serious research as to just how many people are actually in bullion. oh how misled you are.

Glen48 · 15 May 2012

JP Morgan's total derivatives exposure stands at $70.1 trillion, or roughly the same size as the entire world economy. Each of the $1 trillion towers in the image is double-stacked to a height of 930 feet (283 meters).

explod · 15 May 2012

im sparticus said:
I know youve been toying with gold a little to long you may have forgotten other asset classes actually
have alot more going on than capital appreciation so i wont be rude but its time for you to shush now young-gun the adults are talking.

A joke surely.

I have been invested in gold since 2004. Since 2002 it is up 599%

And if you do a bit of research on the real values of tangible goods unencumbered you will learn that gold and silver have only just begun.

In fact today there is less than .05% of money invested globally tied up in physical gold and silver.

Need to do a bit of research before you blow off the top on these forums ole pal.

numbercruncher · 15 May 2012

im sparticus said:
At the moment in brisbane second hand appartment 2 bedroom 1 bath in six pack double brick block thats 5-10 km from the city seem to be going for 3-400k one particular one i know of sold for 350k any who out of interest founyd out it was origibally sold for 38k back in 1967 anyway thinking housed are in a b nowubble and over inflate i wanted to see just how much by so i punch those numbers into the rba inflation calculator and it tells me according to inflation the appartment should be worth $389K mr x is felling a hmm things arnt so bad after all. try it with the price of gold now and then you might get a rude shock

Yet another terrible example -

In 1967 the average weekly wage for an employed male in QLD was $55 per week -

38000/55 = 690 weeks pay - obviously a fairly well to do area in the day ....

New price is 350000/1389 (average weekly pay 2012) = 252 weeks pay

Pretty bad investment back in 1967 and I imagine it will keep nose diving ....

Had that person invested in gold - 38000 AUD .....

Now in 1967 I believe gold was about $31 and ounce - so 38000/31 = 1225 ounces

1225 ounces at todays price of 1550 = 1,898,750

Moral of the story ?

Gold is and has always been a better investment that two bedroom units 5 to 10ks from Brisbane city

im sparticus · 15 May 2012

numbercruncher said:
Yet another terrible example -

In 1967 the average weekly wage for an employed male in QLD was $55 per week -

38000/55 = 690 weeks pay - obviously a fairly well to do area in the day ....

New price is 350000/1389 (average weekly pay 2012) = 252 weeks pay

Pretty bad investment back in 1967 and I imagine it will keep nose diving ....

Had that person invested in gold - 38000 AUD .....

Now in 1967 I believe gold was about $31 and ounce - so 38000/31 = 1225 ounces

1225 ounces at todays price of 1550 = 1,898,750

Moral of the story ?

Gold is and has always been a better investment that two bedroom units 5 to 10ks from Brisbane city

oh man that cant be your final conclusion i almost feel like im getting baited.i cant even be bothered just gonna type afew key words your the number cruncher.

initial outlay, yield, leverage, reinvestment, growth

hint: while the guy who borrowed from the bank to buy 38k gold died of starvation well before the 2011 peak or was smart and had to liquidate to eat and ran out well before the 2011 peak, the guy who baught his initial property continued to accumulated retired early and now has a passive income the gold bug now mows his grass on weekend to help pay the ever increasing rent and still goes hungry most days.

moral of the story there is more going on with property than just capital appreciation. where you take it is up to you.

599% nice job, imagine what you could have done with a little gearing into property over the same period.

im sparticus · 15 May 2012

name anyone on the brw rich list that got there through buy and hold gold. it hasnt made anyone rich realestate on the other hand.

robz7777 · 15 May 2012

Hahaha, perfect example of using figures to support an argument!!

Think if we look at any investment over a specific period of time you could make an argument that it is the best asset to hold..

numbercruncher · 15 May 2012

I could of used plenty of other investment examples but you were rabitting on Bout gold -

Still stands that unit was 690 weeks pay then and 252 weeks pay now and still falling ....

Awesome investment

im sparticus · 15 May 2012

numbercruncher said:
that unit was 690 weeks pay then and 252 weeks pay now

damn straight!

Starcraftmazter · 16 May 2012

im sparticus said:
This is Another reason why i think gold is in a huge speculative bubble and could trade much lower possibily even test its previous all time lows there are much better hedges for inflation and currency risk out there that actu
ally produce a positive return.

Just about everyone is on the gold bandwagon now i mean youngsters would rather have a few useless bars under there pillow thanhave a go at putting a roof over there heads. it is the original ponzi scheme. everyone is in all the gold bugs can do now is sell and the only place for prices is down.
You know what they say when the nobodys (dont want to offend butchers) are talking about xyz... well its time to sell xyz.

All this money with no where to go flodding into the stock and realestate markets. 1979 all over again.
Only this time im not in nappies. (wasnt born till the 80's so missed the turn but wont this time)

Another fun exersize was plugging the seventies highs into the inflation calculator and having it spit out $1950 odd, how interesting.

I don't even

Seriously, are you for real? I don't even know where to begin tearing up your "arguments".

im sparticus said:
name anyone on the brw rich list that got there through buy and hold gold. it hasnt made anyone rich realestate on the other hand.

What the hell does that have to do with anyone? Are you nuts?

numbercruncher · 16 May 2012

Seems Sparticus is obsessed with discrediting Gold alongside pushing his property agenda -

One would have to assume he is highly leveraged in property and owns not one grain of the shiny stuff -

im sparticus · 16 May 2012

Starcraftmazter said:
What the hell does that have to do with anyone? Are you nuts?

some of the best advice i was given was to learn from the people that have achieved success and discount those who havent. considering the most successful of us that are self made have not and probably would never consider building it through gold (while they may hold substancial amounts its not what got them there) stands to reason that there is a good chance its not possible. i know plenty of very well off bussiness owners, realestate investors, stock investors and to a lesser extent traders i dont know of any well of gold bugs. just my personal experiance.

McLovin · 16 May 2012

McLovin said:
On builders and developers, they all seem to be falling off their perch at the moment. Kell & Rigby, now Reed and I was told by someone this afternoon that another large builder is on teetering on the edge.

And here is the builder in question...The chat is this was almost an open secret.

The construction arm of Sydney property company St Hilliers has been placed in voluntary administration.

The move comes after weeks of speculation about the company’s health, in particular in relation to its troubled Ararat prison project in Victoria.

Trent Hancock and Michael Hird of Moore Stephens Sydney Corporate Recovery Group were appointed as voluntary administrators on Tuesday night.

http://www.afr.com/p/business/prope...luntary_administration_RVhBsSQQebaa0EzyYfIxyN

The future of Australian property prices

Starcraftmazter

im sparticus

Starcraftmazter

young-gun

im sparticus

im sparticus

young-gun

young-gun

Glen48

Money can't buy Poverty

explod

explod

numbercruncher

Beware of Dropbears

im sparticus

im sparticus

robz7777

numbercruncher

Beware of Dropbears

im sparticus

Starcraftmazter

numbercruncher

Beware of Dropbears

im sparticus

McLovin

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