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Wasn't that long ago a "few" were talking about the "volatility" of certain markets. 
The future of Australian property prices
- Thread starter Joe Blow
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nukz
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I watched a segment of your money your call on sky business yesterday, they had there ushual panel of REIV reps..
A guy called in who purchased a property in Tarneit in Melbourne who had been trying to rent it out for 2-3 months now with not a single inspection... The REIV reps suggested he get another agent which he told them he already had with no inspections...
It was funny watching the REIV reps then change the subject to how strong the housing market in Melbourne was and how there is a under-supply blah blah lol
A guy called in who purchased a property in Tarneit in Melbourne who had been trying to rent it out for 2-3 months now with not a single inspection... The REIV reps suggested he get another agent which he told them he already had with no inspections...
It was funny watching the REIV reps then change the subject to how strong the housing market in Melbourne was and how there is a under-supply blah blah lol
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Wasn't that long ago a "few" were talking about the "volatility" of certain markets.
That is true, yet some were making assumptions which could not be backed up.
At the moment, the "volatility" may be increased in property due to pressure on funding, coming from the horrible disaster in Japan.
Let's just see what happens here, with Japan in trouble, and China battling inflation.
I don't think it will be all sunshine and happy days forever, yet some naive people do.
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I live about ten minutes from Tarneit and driving past that area from Deer Park to Hoppers Crossing is just full of new estates - aimed at first home buyers.
Driving past that area and you'll see why I say that there never was an under supply of houses just an oversupply of speculators. That area was the basis for my comment
There is a house near me that has been on the market since the start of the year. In the papers they say it takes about 50-60 days for an average home to be on the market before it sells. When it sell i'll let you know....maybe IF it sells...
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Indeed there was never a real shortage anywhere it was all speculative. Demand was artificially generated or brought forward by easy credit and mad speculation. While the bubble expanded, more and more homes were allocated to speculation instead of shelter giving the illusion of a shortage. See here for details:
Blog about housing shortage myth
Demand exceeded that necessary for shelter because of speculative hoarding and almost 10% of dwellings were held empty. This enormous supply of empty homes will flood the market when delusional owners wake up and realise the party's over!
Garpal Gumnut
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I live in a fairly upmarket area, possibly the 90th centile in NQ, and the sellers are hanging in, prices have dropped, but there are very few sales.
I am no expert on property.
gg
I am no expert on property.
gg
Maybe if they hold on too long the prices will fall even further and they will have to drop there price even lower to make ends meet.
Its expensive holding onto a house that isn't being rented out, I'm sure alot of those people selling haven't got tenants in there house so aren't making much cash from there investment properties.
Interesting times..
Its expensive holding onto a house that isn't being rented out, I'm sure alot of those people selling haven't got tenants in there house so aren't making much cash from there investment properties.
Interesting times..
Garpal Gumnut
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Yes but if you can pay the utilities and eat, and have a few kopeks coming in, why sell ?
gg
nukz
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I used to live in the CBD and sold up because the place is getting developed into high rises all over the joint. Theres a place on corner of Lonsdale/Spencer st that will have the same amount of dwellings as East Melbourne.. in a single block.
I'm currently in South Yarra and its no better corner chapel/toorak there is 2 huge developments going on 42 level and 27 level... and developments as far as the eye can see.
The interesting thing is if you have a drive around to outer suburbs its the same developemtns story... huge places being built but will they be filled?
I'm currently in South Yarra and its no better corner chapel/toorak there is 2 huge developments going on 42 level and 27 level... and developments as far as the eye can see.
The interesting thing is if you have a drive around to outer suburbs its the same developemtns story... huge places being built but will they be filled?
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MORE properties sold for record prices in Sydney's west than in any other region over the past year.
Sales across the city fell by just over 11 per cent last year, but this failed to halt the march of prices in the western suburbs - where most people can afford to buy.
According to figures compiled by Residex, 40 suburbs across the west and inner west have recorded a top sale price for a house, unit or block of land since January 1 last year, as have almost a dozen southwestern suburbs stretching towards Campbelltown.
"Affordability means we're moving further out, but we're pushing up costs and creating record prices as we move out," Residex managing director John Edwards said
http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/property/property-hits-new-records/story-e6freztr-1226020406230
When OH when will this Ponzi scheme come crashing down?
Sales across the city fell by just over 11 per cent last year, but this failed to halt the march of prices in the western suburbs - where most people can afford to buy.
According to figures compiled by Residex, 40 suburbs across the west and inner west have recorded a top sale price for a house, unit or block of land since January 1 last year, as have almost a dozen southwestern suburbs stretching towards Campbelltown.
"Affordability means we're moving further out, but we're pushing up costs and creating record prices as we move out," Residex managing director John Edwards said
http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/property/property-hits-new-records/story-e6freztr-1226020406230
When OH when will this Ponzi scheme come crashing down?
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now the future fund is talking up the volatility
huge warnings from david murray
http://www.theage.com.au/business/high-house-prices-make-economy-vulnerable-20110316-1bx43.html
Australian house prices are high by world standards and have made the economy vulnerable to overseas events that may cause a sudden decline in their value, the head of the Future Fund says.
Future Fund chairman David Murray said younger Australians in particular had been prepared to devote a large portion of their incomes to loan repayments, even at a cost to their living circumstances, and that had helped propel house prices higher.
‘‘The relationship between house prices and incomes is uncomfortably high,’’ Mr Murray said in a televised panel discussion, hosted by The Australian newspaper and Sky News.
The comments by Mr Murray, a former chief executive of Commonwealth Bank, came as a major ratings agency said that more Australians were falling behind with their mortgage repayments and the situation could worsen with interest rate rises.
bt also backs up in the article, they talk about mortgages in arrears, and all sorts of outcomes possibly in the horizon..
lets hope it all gets forgotten by friday night and the upcoming 2700 auctions all get well above median prices and massive bogus clearance rates
imho articles like these are very much going to support the bubble story and be a thorn in the side of the real estate industry, so i expect some upbeat PR to be released.. perhaps some gloating 4 page spreads in the papers on how good your median price is in your postcode,, it may settle the nerves.. cheer up the masses.. we need more sunshine and lollipops!!!
long live the bubble.. and lets work harder in here to dispel the likes of keen and all the others whom are calling the bubble for what it is,,,
come on robots, we need guidance and inspiration now.. more than ever..
huge warnings from david murray
http://www.theage.com.au/business/high-house-prices-make-economy-vulnerable-20110316-1bx43.html
Australian house prices are high by world standards and have made the economy vulnerable to overseas events that may cause a sudden decline in their value, the head of the Future Fund says.
Future Fund chairman David Murray said younger Australians in particular had been prepared to devote a large portion of their incomes to loan repayments, even at a cost to their living circumstances, and that had helped propel house prices higher.
‘‘The relationship between house prices and incomes is uncomfortably high,’’ Mr Murray said in a televised panel discussion, hosted by The Australian newspaper and Sky News.
The comments by Mr Murray, a former chief executive of Commonwealth Bank, came as a major ratings agency said that more Australians were falling behind with their mortgage repayments and the situation could worsen with interest rate rises.
bt also backs up in the article, they talk about mortgages in arrears, and all sorts of outcomes possibly in the horizon..
lets hope it all gets forgotten by friday night and the upcoming 2700 auctions all get well above median prices and massive bogus clearance rates
imho articles like these are very much going to support the bubble story and be a thorn in the side of the real estate industry, so i expect some upbeat PR to be released.. perhaps some gloating 4 page spreads in the papers on how good your median price is in your postcode,, it may settle the nerves.. cheer up the masses.. we need more sunshine and lollipops!!!
long live the bubble.. and lets work harder in here to dispel the likes of keen and all the others whom are calling the bubble for what it is,,,
come on robots, we need guidance and inspiration now.. more than ever..
The backbone of OZ (aka keeping the rest of the nation out of recession) WA is down the $hitter in Real Estate.
In the midst of the GFC, 1 in every 2 homes was being bought by / on a FHOG. It's now down to 1 in 4. Places here aren't selling and haven't been selling for a good 9 months+.
It was noted in the news last night that the Real Estate shonks are urging First Home owners to get in before their $21K reduces down to $7K. Or did I mishear this?
I have no doubt the No Idea Govt will just end increasing the grant again, trying to lead even more desperate working families to the guillotine, like lambs to the slaughter.
When are the revised weekend auction results being released again? You know the one, the one that doesn't get released to media but ends up being 5 - 10% less.
In the midst of the GFC, 1 in every 2 homes was being bought by / on a FHOG. It's now down to 1 in 4. Places here aren't selling and haven't been selling for a good 9 months+.
It was noted in the news last night that the Real Estate shonks are urging First Home owners to get in before their $21K reduces down to $7K. Or did I mishear this?
I have no doubt the No Idea Govt will just end increasing the grant again, trying to lead even more desperate working families to the guillotine, like lambs to the slaughter.
When are the revised weekend auction results being released again? You know the one, the one that doesn't get released to media but ends up being 5 - 10% less.
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"From a city wide perspective the Melbourne residential auction market is very consistent right now with each weekend looking like the last.
This weekend the clearance rate is 67 per cent and over the last 4 weekends it has been between 63 and 67 per cent.
There was a total of 816 auctions reported of which 546 sold, 270 were passed in, 170 of those on a vendors bid.
On this weekend last year there were 889 auctions and a clearance rate of 87 per cent"
67% vs 87% last year.
All lollipops, sunshine, rainbows, fluffy toys and bubbles.
This weekend the clearance rate is 67 per cent and over the last 4 weekends it has been between 63 and 67 per cent.
There was a total of 816 auctions reported of which 546 sold, 270 were passed in, 170 of those on a vendors bid.
On this weekend last year there were 889 auctions and a clearance rate of 87 per cent"
67% vs 87% last year.
All lollipops, sunshine, rainbows, fluffy toys and bubbles.
Pretty clear situation with sellers unwilling to sell without the capital gains they where expecting. Rental yields are so low that you need to make 10% a year at least to make it worth the investment.
But many buyers are not seeing much value in the market and are unwilling to go that extra 10% that sellers want. However there are still some crazies out there that will bid up a 3br 600sqm hovel in mitcham to 900k probably because they have been told that real estate "always goes up". Some prices on pretty non prestige homes in non prestige areas really boggles my mind.
To use a share market analogy, we are in a "trading range" at the moment with both sides looking for a "break out"
But many buyers are not seeing much value in the market and are unwilling to go that extra 10% that sellers want. However there are still some crazies out there that will bid up a 3br 600sqm hovel in mitcham to 900k probably because they have been told that real estate "always goes up". Some prices on pretty non prestige homes in non prestige areas really boggles my mind.
To use a share market analogy, we are in a "trading range" at the moment with both sides looking for a "break out"
Garpal Gumnut
Ross Island Hotel
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Agree with all above.
There are many "Auction" sales in Townsville, I've been to a few and they mostly never reach the reserve and an interested party disappears in to a huddle with a RE Agent who was flipping burgers the week before.
It's sad really.
gg
There are many "Auction" sales in Townsville, I've been to a few and they mostly never reach the reserve and an interested party disappears in to a huddle with a RE Agent who was flipping burgers the week before.
It's sad really.
gg
Or perhaps they will want to 'take delivery' of that capital, i.e. 'want to live here now my japanese house is broken'.
LOL. Where is this place, I want to live there
.Anyway, is this going to end in a crash, or just a stagnating slow bear market in property?
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Or perhaps they will want to 'take delivery' of that capital, i.e. 'want to live here now my japanese house is broken'.
LOL. Where is this place, I want to live there
Anyway, is this going to end in a crash, or just a stagnating slow bear market in property?
I have made my predictions quite clear.
Most likely stagnation, possibly 20% correction is my guess.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2011/03/16/3165231.htm
"Unexpected" jump in mortgage arrears. Unexpected to the mainstream economists I guess, who keep parroting how strong the economy is. The more enlightened of us can see that households are on the brink and the economy is terribly fragile.
I also note that the banks have lowered their credit standards even more in an attempt to gain a greater share of a declining home buyer pool. They are bumping up max LVR's to th 95-97% range again.
"Unexpected" jump in mortgage arrears. Unexpected to the mainstream economists I guess, who keep parroting how strong the economy is. The more enlightened of us can see that households are on the brink and the economy is terribly fragile.
I also note that the banks have lowered their credit standards even more in an attempt to gain a greater share of a declining home buyer pool. They are bumping up max LVR's to th 95-97% range again.
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hocus-pocus
of course we were told to expect 950 auctions this weekend and 940 next weekend.
the 816 reported auctions dont include the 128 that they did not report.. ie no bid
so magic.. there are now 816 reported,
hocus-pocus ala jazzamm
67% clearance rate
lol
way better than the actual 57% clearance rate..
quite a few auctions had pretty heated bidders.. with one advertised at 1.3 - 1.4 mill and going on market at 1.75 mill.. full 25% above the advertised price
so the result of this type of garbage smoke and mirror tactics.. property prices in melbourne are in full steam ahead bubble mode with prices still rising in february 2011
fantastic news for all
lets celebrate.. waaahhooooo!!!!!!!!!
