The future of Australian property prices

[Buckfont]

and the best of luck to you Tysonboss1 in all your future endeavours.

I have enjoyed all your posts. Bf

 

[robots]

hello,

see ya bro, thanks for sharing and helping out everyone here at ASF

and not once have any of us prophets asked for money

thankyou
professor robots

 

[robots]

hello,

yeah, top effort man

people please go to the members area and research this guys posts, superb

thankyou
professor robots

 

[FxTrader]

1, By not over paying in the first place

That's not a form of insurance, and if you can't understand this that then it's you with the learning disability. Once again you try and avoid the substance of the issue, you can't insure property against capital loss.

... now have a figure of the likly weekly rent, lets say $425 / week. So times that by 52, because there are 52 weeks per year. this gives you a gross rental yield of $22,100

More financial illiteracy, your 22k is your gross rental return not yield.

Rental yield = (weekly rent * 52) / purchase price x 100, expressed as a percentage. Rental yield clearly has a price component, understand, get your terminology in order.

we then mulltiply the net rent by 22.5 to give you a figure of $397,800, this is then the IV of this property. You will notice at no time did I use the purchase price or asking price in my calculation

Your figure of $397,800 is what you're willing to pay based on what you consider to be an acceptable rental yield, that is not a VALUATION or IV calculation. You are clearly confused about the meaning of certain financial terms and their application here. Yours is not a valuation calculation, rather it's an acceptable yield calculation used to derive a purchase price.

 

[robots]

hello,

have we had the crash yet FX Trader? what great minds are now predicting it?

oh well, Keen wrong & gone, Schiffer wrong and gone, havent heard from that Minnick bloke, Grantham and Maldoff took over for a while, gone

louis christopher and jenman still carrying on with usual spam, oh well

thankyou
professor robots

 

[trainspotter]

Any way, Thanks to all ASF members for the lively conversation over the years, It's been entertaining. I am off to focus on other things for a while.

Cheers, I wish everyone the best of luck.

Cheers Tysonboss1. Your posts have been succint, factual, thought provoking and very enlightening. I am sure you will succeed in whatever you decide to focus on in the future.

I find it hilarious that the people in here who have a difference of opinion to yours on property do not own property nor have they had much in the way of life experience or ever held a green title in their hands. Yet they have so much to say on the subject matter at hand.

Apparently a balanced portfolio cannot include property that delivers capital growth and or a rental return nor even a tax deduction. What about PPOR and nil capital gain upon selling? Roof over your head that is actually yours and not Mummy and Daddys or the Landlords? NOPE.

Don't buy property cause it is gonna crash and shares will outperform whatever property is capable of. I am still waiting for the crash so I can go and buy more property.

Keep on rolling they way you roll Tysonboss1. RESPECT !

 

[Joe Blow]

Any way, Thanks to all ASF members for the lively conversation over the years, It's been entertaining. I am off to focus on other things for a while.

Cheers, I wish everyone the best of luck.

Always sad to see a long time ASF member leave the site.

Thanks for all your contributions and best of luck for the future.

You're always welcome back if you ever decide to return.

 

[sinner]

Just remember, we have been discussing the following topic at ASF for at least 2 weeks now:

Property sales reach 10-year low
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2011/03/09/3159177.htm

New research shows property sales across the country have slumped to their lowest level in 10 years.

The fresh figures from RP Data show sales of houses and units dipped 20 per cent in 2010 on the back of a number of interest rate rises.
....

Home loans drop

Meanwhile, the number of owner-occupier home loans taken out has fallen more sharply than expected in January.

Figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics show home loans fell 4.5 per cent from December to January.

On average economists were expecting home loans to fall just 1 per cent in the month.

The value of loans for investment housing slumped 6.8 per cent in January.

Click the link to read on the usual HIA spiel about housing shortage.

To check, you can see it here

http://www.myrp.com.au/melbourne_house_prices.do (just replace melbourne in the URL with the capital city of your choice)

 

[matty77]

Does anyone actually believe a thing RP Data put out nowdays? Seems like all fluff and clouds to me lately.

 

[againsthegrain]

Soaring house prices may spark mortgage crisis - economist Brian Haratsis

Read more: http://www.news.com.au/money/property/soaring-house-prices-may-spark-mortgage-crisis-economist-brian-haratsis/story-e6frfmd0-1226018966994#ixzz1GA6AkZVK

So what does it mean when now the media is no longer painting a colorful picture? I know news.com.au is a joke and not to be treated seriously however a large portion of the population believe anything that is printed.

I think this is the next step down on that graph....

Developers offering larger incentives
Media no longer printing positive outlooks .....

 

[trainspotter]

Homes in capital cities rose in value at the end of last year, up 0.7 per cent for the quarter, defying economists' expectations of a fall.

Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) figures show prices for established houses rose by 5.8 per cent for the year.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2011/02/01/3127128.htm

AHA ! NOW SOME TRUTH COMES OUT AT LAST !!!!!!!!!

The ABS outcome is different to a private property survey out yesterday that showed a rise of just 0.4 per cent for the quarter in home values, but that survey included regional areas.

Capital cities are still dragging regional areas along of which some HAVE suffered significant declines in value. Mandurah, parts of the Gold Coast, Ipswich and North Beach spring to mind.

 

[So_Cynical]

AHA ! NOW SOME TRUTH COMES OUT AT LAST !!!!!!!!!

Yet more truth according to a piece i read in the AFR the other day

"Gold Coast property faces 7-year glut"

"KordaMentha partner Mark Korda told the conference more than 2,000 apartments worth around $2 billion were up for sale, with few buyers meaning just 300 apartments were selling on average each year."

http://www.businessspectator.com.au...ces-7-year-glut-pd20110309-ERQFT?OpenDocument

I wonder what the supply and demand brigade will make of that? sunshine and lollipops anyone?

 

[trainspotter]

Yet more truth according to a piece i read in the AFR the other day

"Gold Coast property faces 7-year glut"

"KordaMentha partner Mark Korda told the conference more than 2,000 apartments worth around $2 billion were up for sale, with few buyers meaning just 300 apartments were selling on average each year."

http://www.businessspectator.com.au...ces-7-year-glut-pd20110309-ERQFT?OpenDocument

I wonder what the supply and demand brigade will make of that? sunshine and lollipops anyone?

Which is probably why I wrote this in the previous post ........ "Capital cities are still dragging regional areas along of which some HAVE suffered significant declines in value. Mandurah, parts of the Gold Coast, Ipswich and North Beach spring to mind.

Wake me up when you have finished darling. My head hurts.

 

[satanoperca]

Homes in capital cities rose in value at the end of last year, up 0.7 per cent for the quarter, defying economists' expectations of a fall.

Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) figures show prices for established houses rose by 5.8 per cent for the year.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2011/02/01/3127128.htm

AHA ! NOW SOME TRUTH COMES OUT AT LAST !!!!!!!!!

The ABS outcome is different to a private property survey out yesterday that showed a rise of just 0.4 per cent for the quarter in home values, but that survey included regional areas.

Capital cities are still dragging regional areas along of which some HAVE suffered significant declines in value. Mandurah, parts of the Gold Coast, Ipswich and North Beach spring to mind.

Looks like a decline in growth based on the above figures.

0.7% for last quarter leaves us with 2.8%p.a or inline with inflation. Growth trend is down.

Cheers

 

[So_Cynical]

Which is probably why I wrote this in the previous post ........ "Capital cities are still dragging regional areas along of which some HAVE suffered significant declines in value. Mandurah, parts of the Gold Coast, Ipswich and North Beach spring to mind.

Which parts of the gold coast you talkin about Tranny? the parts that have units for sale?

 

[trainspotter]

Which parts of the gold coast you talkin about Tranny? the parts that have units for sale?

LOL So_Cyclical. The Gold Coast is a very large strip of coastal land. My recollection is from Coomera to Banora Point would encompass the total land mass. Me personally I like the area around Tallebudgera Creek. One of my favourite family holiday destinations. And it is always good to catch up with family.

I also recall Sir Bruce Small as a business associate of my father who was a valuer at the time.

Yes yes yes the greedy naughty property developers have inundated the area with "apartments". Yes yes yes they all thought it is sunshine and lollipops. Mandurah is the same. North Beach has dropped 20% ??? Ipswich was a massive mortgage belt hit with evictions. Derrrrrrrrrrrrrrr

What is your point here??? I have repeatedly siad over the last 6 months or more that CERTAIN areas will be tanking for 40% a la' Steve Keen etc. I have also stated that the "national" house prices according to the ABS that only include the 8 capital cities is "skewed" and does not include the "outlier" of regional property.

Oh well ......... back to sleep for me.

 

[So_Cynical]

LOL So_Cyclical. The Gold Coast is a very large strip of coastal land. My recollection is from Coomera to Banora Point would encompass the total land mass. Me personally I like the area around Tallebudgera Creek. One of my favourite family holiday destinations. And it is always good to catch up with family.

I also recall Sir Bruce Small as a business associate of my father who was a valuer at the time.

Yes yes yes the greedy naughty property developers have inundated the area with "apartments". Yes yes yes they all thought it is sunshine and lollipops. Mandurah is the same. North Beach has dropped 20% ??? Ipswich was a massive mortgage belt hit with evictions. Derrrrrrrrrrrrrrr

What is your point here???

My point was pretty obvious i thought...i would think that where ever your unit is on the GC its going to be hard to move with only 300 units selling last year...that's an amazingly negative figure.

-----------------

I lived on the GC for 5 years in the late 80's Tweed heads and on 5 acres in Piggabeen (out the back of Tugan) had a great time, Slightly off topic but my Grand mother actually had the opportunity to buy the land that ended up being Burleigh heads, the town centre right on the beach, back in the late 20's when there was nothing there.

In her usual style she decided that even though they have travelled regularly to the area from Melbourne, driving over many days to reach there...that nothing would ever come of the place and who would ever want to live there anyway.

 

[Agentm]

as usual the real figures for last weekends melbourne auction results were vastly overstated

the complete farce of 66% was overstated by 10% and not including withdrawn auctions and auction not even taken into the real count, the best they could muster with all their fudging was 60.6%

the age today reports 851 auctions last week (868 actual) and a clearance rate of 67% !!

all the happy buyers will be basking in the sun today and enjoying the lollipops..

the bubble in melbourne remains and i bet the auctions manage to beat the medians again like they have been week in week out

plenty of window sill painting going on out there...

 

[trainspotter]

My point was pretty obvious i thought...i would think that where ever your unit is on the GC its going to be hard to move with only 300 units selling last year...that's an amazingly negative figure.

Well I would be suggesting that if the unit/apartment is part of a multi storey complex I would expect that they would be hard to sell especially as the sale prices vary from 2 million down to $245,000 depending on size and location ?? As most of these developments on the GC are of this nature it is not surprising that things are not selling as quickly as they were in 2007/2008.

According to the REIQ September quarter report, the median house price on the Gold Coast decreased 3 per cent to $480,000 in the quarter, however the change in the year to date has been more positive than negative, up 8.5 per cent since this time in 2009.

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/new...-apartment-sales/story-e6frg9zo-1225856479340

Matusik looked at 350 resales across 17 ocean-front apartment buildings in Surfers Paradise. He excluded sales between family members because of hardship such as divorce.

The analysis found an average capital gain of 9.9 per cent per year and an average actual gain of just under $225,000 between sales, equating to an annual gain of more than $40,000.

As there are approximately 800 apartements for sale ATM I am not concerned at the take up rate. All that glitters is not gold sometimes.

 

[medicowallet]

"As is normally the case on a long weekend there has been a lower number of auctions.

There were a total of 214 auctions held of which a total 146 sold resulting in a clearance rate of 68 per cent.

There were 68 homes passed in of which 44 were on a vendors bid.

Next weekend volumes return to a high number with around 950 auctions expected followed by 940 the weekend after."

I am posting some figures I somehow found on the internet.

They confuse me, so I cannot reliably give any analysis of them, but I thought I would put them up for the wise people to peruse.

medicowallet

Fairies, rainbows, marshmallows, wizz fizz and a lolly pop.