The future of Australian property prices

[Slipperz]

hello,

oh come on Slipperzz, the banks offer a product and everyone has the right to take it or leave it

they take deposits and loan it out like they have done for millions of years, no big deal, i find most people who dislike the banks are jealous yet they would trade places in a heart beat with R.Norris

oh well, bank bashers

yeah well done Nun, gee Explod i never got any congratulations like that from you, i dont know man

thankyou
professor robots

I am far from jealous of the banks. Not a basher either. I just don't like the way they operate and prefer to give them as little money as possible.

I intend to buy my house outright without paying a bank the value of the property again through interest.

So far it's all going according to plan. The traditional 30 year mortgage scam model doesn't necessarily apply to everyone.

As the old saying goes there's more than one way to skin a cat.

 

[robots]

I am far from jealous of the banks. Not a basher either. I just don't like the way they operate and prefer to give them as little money as possible.

I intend to buy my house outright without paying a bank the value of the property again through interest.

So far it's all going according to plan. The traditional 30 year mortgage scam model doesn't necessarily apply to everyone.

As the old saying goes there's more than one way to skin a cat.

hello,

yeah thats right, most mortgage's are paid out earlier, heaps earlier

they operate fairly and yes you give them as little as possible, same here

thankyou
professor robots

 

[explod]

hello,

, gee Explod i never got any congratulations like that from you, i dont know man

thankyou
professor robots

Oh shucks there Confessor, please do not feel out of it.

BUT YOUR BODGEY, AND (in emphasis) FAULSE PROFESSORSHIP makes you a mockery. Either come down to earth with us mere mortals or go away

Had a few wines tonight, but on my re-reading, think I am fair enough.

Your name on here is "robots" and mine is "explod" so just live with it Pal and perhaps you may one day deserve a pat on the back.

Property is stagnant to going down this week IMVHO.

 

[robots]

Oh shucks there Confessor, please do not feel out of it.

BUT YOUR BODGEY, AND (in emphasis) FAULSE PROFESSORSHIP makes you a mockery. Either come down to earth with us mere mortals or go away

Had a few wines tonight, but on my re-reading, think I am fair enough.

Your name on here is "robots" and mine is "explod" so just live with it Pal and perhaps you may one day deserve a pat on the back.

Property is stagnant to going down this week IMVHO.

hello,

hehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehe, no worries but i aint going down the track of the many many many bearheads who disappeared

the list so far:

chops a must
mr burns
pepperoni
kimosabi
Tom R
numbercruncher
knocker
knocker1
s.keen
mr fujitsu consulting
crikey.net.org.au
singlefished
mrZ

thankyou
professor robots

 

[Slipperz]

hello,

yeah thats right, most mortgage's are paid out earlier, heaps earlier

they operate fairly and yes you give them as little as possible, same here

thankyou
professor robots

Operate fairly don't make me laugh.

They gouge whatever they can hope to get away with and then some.

Fees for this and fees for that. They even charge a fee to walk in the door and give them money across the counter. What a great business model that is.

The best part of the whole banking industry is that absolutely none of them not one single Australian banker had anything to do with the whole sub prime mess.

They are all completely absolved from the whole greedy mess and happy to blame the Americans.

Funny how none of their overpaid analysts managed to sound an alarm bell or two about how their "globalised industry" had a rat in the ranks when they were all making shedloads of money onselling thin air to local councils and the like.

They just leave the little people to foot the bill and let the taxpayer guarantee their business model when their greed overran their sense..



But it wasn't the banks fault.



Honest.

 

[Aussiejeff]

hello,

hehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehe, no worries but i aint going down the track of the many many many bearheads who disappeared

the list so far:

chops a must
mr burns
pepperoni
kimosabi
Tom R
numbercruncher
knocker
knocker1
s.keen
mr fujitsu consulting
crikey.net.org.au
singlefished
mrZ

thankyou
professor robots

Glad to see you didn't add me to your bagged bear heads trophy list.

You'll never take me alive, you creaking tinman!

MWA-HA-HAAA-HAAAA!!

Yours, forever lurking....

aj

PS: grrroooooowwwwwlllllll!

 

[Mofra]

Exactly. I am not attempting to argue this point. All I am trying to highlight in this case is that in any sort of liquidity crisis, Australian banks are going to be locked out of the debt markets macro style. How can momentum continue up in housing without this lending?

It can't!

Never said it was entirely foreign credit. But at $13 trillion we can definitely assume the majority of demand is coming from bigger markets than our own!

Assuming the figures are correct, perhaps. Do you have a source?

Um what? What I was asking, specifically, was if lending standards are so damn good, do we even need a guarantee for protection? Protection from what? According to you we need no protection!

I don't agree with the policy, so why are you asking me to justify it?

Make no mistake, I am not pointing to a crash (except in the possibility of an inflationary crash). I have said over and over again that the end game (regardless of path taken) is a reduced standard of living across the board for Australians. This could be in either an environment of high property prices, or low property prices. Doesn't make a difference. We as a nation will pay the future price for present follies of those we apathetically left in charge.

SOL has been on a steady upwards trend since the middle ages, that is one helluva macro trend break that would need to be broken.

In an environment of increasing wages and stagnating house prices (which is my expectation) I also see the chances of a crash reducing, not increasing.

 

[nukz]

Are there any realestate index's in Australia? atleast then i can add something to my shorts if its available.

It's already starting to crumble if you don't see it you have a large vested intrest in property or are a property developer. Woudn't be supprised if Robots was one of those.

 

[medicowallet]

hello,

hehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehe, no worries but i aint going down the track of the many many many bearheads who disappeared

the list so far:

chops a must
mr burns
pepperoni
kimosabi
Tom R
numbercruncher
knocker
knocker1
s.keen
mr fujitsu consulting
crikey.net.org.au
singlefished
mrZ

thankyou
professor robots

I feel insulted and overlooked!

Oh, by the way, what was the auction clearance rate for last week?

You must have forgotten to post it.

I am sure it is continuing at 80%+

and what are your predictions for the weekend?

 

[awg]

hello,

hehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehe, no worries but i aint going down the track of the many many many bearheads who disappeared

the list so far:


professor robots

Christ mate,

reminds me of that film where the dude they bullied at school has the " to be murdered" list on his bedroom wall :

 

[cutz]

Are there any realestate index's in Australia? atleast then i can add something to my shorts if its available.

If you are serious there is a sector that can act as a proxy, you may need to figure it out for yourself.

 

[Dowdy]

If you are serious there is a sector that can act as a proxy, you may need to figure it out for yourself.

THere are ETFs listed on the ASX.

Code: SLF, VAP

 

[nukz]

THere are ETFs listed on the ASX.

Code: SLF, VAP

Awsome, thanks for the help : ) But can you short ETF's in Aus?

 

[Tysonboss1]

will be looking for a cheap quality property myself down the track.

I am in the same boat, my powder in nice and try waiting for some good buys to arise.

I have found that a good sign is when gross yields are at or over 6% it generally is a good time to buy

 

[So_Cynical]

THere are ETFs listed on the ASX.

Code: SLF, VAP

I would be really surprised if SLF and VAP fell significantly, the valuations that property stocks have to do are cycling up, the commercial property bottom coincided with the GFC...i mean commercial property values fell maybe 10 > 15% during the GFC when residential lost only 5% or so.

I would think that if residential property falls 20% then commercial would probably only fall a little if at all....anyway im still of the view that the residential bubble will end in more of a sideways trend than falling of a cliff.

 

[TheAbyss]

Question - Is it possible to borrow overseas to purchase Australian property at their lower interest rates?

I imagine not but was wondering.
cheers

 

[prawn_86]

Question - Is it possible to borrow overseas to purchase Australian property at their lower interest rates?

I imagine not but was wondering.
cheers

This is essentially a carry trade and leaves you exposed to currency fluctuations.

In theory (not reality) the interest rate differential is priced into the 2 currencies so there is no real benefit of doing it.

 

[nukz]

Question - Is it possible to borrow overseas to purchase Australian property at their lower interest rates?

I imagine not but was wondering.
cheers

Great question, i did look into this quite a few years ago and did find Lloyds Singspore did offer loans at Japanese intrest rates for property in Australia(because japan rates where very very low even then).

The only catch was the intrest would need to be payed in Yen and principle in Dollars(Depends on your loan product P&I / I only)

 

[sinner]

Interesting view presented here by Nori Lietz

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/bus...into-real-estate/story-e6frg9gx-1225941389367

Not sure I can agree with some of the premises, but interesting nonetheless. She views almost $200bn in capital waiting on the sidelines to invest in something.

I don't believe in sideline cash.

 

[TheAbyss]

This is essentially a carry trade and leaves you exposed to currency fluctuations.

In theory (not reality) the interest rate differential is priced into the 2 currencies so there is no real benefit of doing it.

Great question, i did look into this quite a few years ago and did find Lloyds Singspore did offer loans at Japanese intrest rates for property in Australia(because japan rates where very very low even then).

The only catch was the intrest would need to be payed in Yen and principle in Dollars(Depends on your loan product P&I / I only)

Thanks guys. So basically all things being equal, i am chasing a piece of shiny tin foil which wont change much and expose further risk (currency fluctuations).

If it was a winner we would have an influx of advertisers via the web etc and our local bnaks wouldnt be raking in the billions that they are.

Cheers