The future of Australian property prices

[robots]

hello,

just letting everyone who has PM'd me in regards to the property mentoring i will be out of action for a few days (fri-mon) as going to support friend at world solo 24hr mtb race in canberra

still around tonite for any live action though

thankyou
associate professor robots

 

[todster]

hello,

just letting everyone who has PM'd me in regards to the property mentoring i will be out of action for a few days (fri-mon) as going to support friend at world solo 24hr mtb race in canberra

still around tonite for any live action though

thankyou
associate professor robots

Sure Robots really your a bogan and going to bathurst for the weekend

 

[wayneL]

Meanwhile, back in The Old Dart:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/...e-prices-fall-by-record-3.6pc-in-a-month.html

UK house prices fall by record 3.6pc in a month
The UK housing market has suffered a shock as figures from the Halifax revealed the average price of a property dropped more than £6,000 in September.

A surge in the supply of properties for sale contributed to a record monthly drop in prices, Halifax said.
The group said an increase in the number of properties on the market, combined with a drop in demand fuelled by uncertainty over the economy, forced prices down 3.6pc - the biggest monthly fall since figures were first compiled in 1983.
The price of an average home in the UK dropped from £168,124 in August to £162,096, Halifax figures showed.

 

[UBIQUITOUS]

Meanwhile, back in The Old Dart:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/...e-prices-fall-by-record-3.6pc-in-a-month.html

I came on here to post that!
That is what you call a crash. Enough to make potential buyers think twice? I think so!

 

[-Bevo-]

Meanwhile, back in The Old Dart:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/...e-prices-fall-by-record-3.6pc-in-a-month.html

Those poor poms should have put there money in Australian Property

 

[singlefished]

Those poor poms should have put there money in Australian Property

Also consider how the GBP has nosedived over recent years and is now bouncing off 25 year lows....

9 October 2008 : 1 GBP = 2.66 AUD
7 October 2010 : 1 GBP = 1.61 AUD

July 2008 UK Average All Dwellings : 214,867 GBP = 571,546 AUD
July 2010 UK Average All Dwellings : 212,878 GBP = 342,733 AUD
(the latest 2 years available for comparison published 14/09/10)

From Bondi to Blacktown in 2 years!!!

 

[c-unit]

A Current Affair had a puff piece tonight on how we should all look to invest in property because it always goes up, and with 10-20% gains per annum with no chances of losses, it is the perfect investment.

Probably as good a sign as any that property prices have peaked

 

[UBIQUITOUS]

A Current Affair had a puff piece tonight on how we should all look to invest in property because it always goes up, and with 10-20% gains per annum with no chances of losses, it is the perfect investment.

Probably as good a sign as any that property prices have peaked

Naahh, the biggest indicator is that I haven't seen Robots around the traps recently. Isn't spring the season where buyers are rampant? Well it looks as though the sellers are coming out in mass

http://reiv.com.au/home/inside.asp?ID=162&nav1=1226&nav2=162

The REIV expects around 1900 auctions over the next fortnight including 1170 in a fortnight, a number sure to test the level of underlying demand.

Spruik imminent:

The REIV will release the September quarter median prices next weekend, providing buyers and sellers with important intelligence on the current state of the market at a suburb level.

 

[danwalker86]

hi, new member here so please go easy.

i have just sold my investment property and made a gain of 25% in 18 months.

i simply think the aussie resi. market is not sustainable, and figured i was better to get out with a large gain than face negative equity within 12-24 months.

i have around $50k i can now use to start building my share portfolio. what would be the advice of anyone here? i was thinking of a term deposit for 6 months whilst i research (yes, im spending 2-3 hours a day on this forum in the beginners section)

do you think this would be a good idea so i do not enter the market hastily and make mistakes?

in advance, all your advice is much appreciated.

 

[KurwaJegoMac]

hi, new member here so please go easy.

i have just sold my investment property and made a gain of 25% in 18 months.

i simply think the aussie resi. market is not sustainable, and figured i was better to get out with a large gain than face negative equity within 12-24 months.

i have around $50k i can now use to start building my share portfolio. what would be the advice of anyone here? i was thinking of a term deposit for 6 months whilst i research (yes, im spending 2-3 hours a day on this forum in the beginners section)

do you think this would be a good idea so i do not enter the market hastily and make mistakes?

in advance, all your advice is much appreciated.

Hi Danwalker86 and welcome to the forum

Congratulations on your success with your property. That being said we cannot offer advice as to what you should do with your money - you need to consult with a licensed financial advisor if you would like that sort of information.

 

[c-unit]

The government has invested in $11.3 billion worth of low-risk mortgage securities and been a cornerstone investor in several major transactions in a bid to boost investor confidence after the securitisation market stalled in 2008.

Mr Dalton has called on the AOFM to also broaden its scope to invest in the so-called ''B-class notes'', or subordinated debt, which forms part of a securitisation issue. This will avoid crowding out the senior debt, where demand is becoming more robust.

http://www.theage.com.au/business/small-lenders-securitisation-bid-20101010-16e1s.html

Does this concern anybody else? B-class notes, the Australian equivalent of sub prime debt? I was aware we had a small RMBS market here in Australia but the thought of our government buying them to prop up the market worries me...

 

[sinner]

Housing Collapse Cascade Pattern (updated):

 

[moXJO]

Housing costs in my area have gone crazy with 20% plus rises in a matter of months. They are also selling in a matter of 1-2 weeks in the better areas (lower end of town not moving very fast). The locals are getting priced out by the Sydney investors. I hope it is a bubble because the cost of living is getting stupidly high with rents.

 

[trainspotter]

The biggest news of the week was the decision by the Reserve Bank Board to keep official interest rates on hold at 4.5%. Following a number of speeches during the last month by senior bank officials who highlighted that interest rates would most likely need to increase, most commentators had been predicting a 25 basis points increase however, this did not come to fruition. Looking back at the data releases over the last month, property value growth was weak as was housing finance, building approvals and growth in retail trade was sluggish. The next key piece of data that will provide some guidance on where interest rates are going will be the release of CPI Data on 27 October. This information will factor most heavily in the RBA’s next interest rate decision on Melbourne Cup Day.

Data released by the ABS late last week detailing building approvals for August 2010 showed continuing weakness, in particular for new private sector house approvals. Over the month, total approvals fell by -4.7% with private sector house approvals down -4.3% whilst private sector unit approvals increased by 1.4%. Overall, approvals are once again beginning to trend lower which is a worrying sign for a recovery in the home building sector, particularly if interest rates start increasing again.

The RP Data Quarterly Rental Review was released this week and the results showed that rental rates were flat over the quarter both nationally and across the capital city markets. With rental markets tightening, the prospect of higher interest rates and fewer first home buyers, RP Data anticipates that landlords will be looking to increase rents upon lease renewal.

SYDNEY (Dow Jones)--Australian house prices will rise for the next three years on the back of the country's robust economy, an industry report commissioned by a large Australian mortgage insurer said Tuesday.

The report, commissioned by QBE and written by BIS Shrapnel, forecast median house price growth of 20% in Perth, Sydney and Adelaide over the next three years with prices in every major city in Australia rising by 9% or more.

http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20101011-710974.html

Things are definitely cooling off in a downward trend. Classic perfect storm if interest rates increase and landlords try to gain higher returns by squeezing the tenants for more money. Aussie dollar is punching big holes in the budget means company profits to be down thusly affecting tax income for the Govt.

Interesting times ahead !!

 

[explod]

Things are definitely cooling off in a downward trend. Classic perfect storm if interest rates increase and landlords try to gain higher returns by squeezing the tenants for more money. Aussie dollar is punching big holes in the budget means company profits to be down thusly affecting tax income for the Govt.

Interesting times ahead !!

Now I know we get howled down for making unwanted comments on this thread but surely more would be seeing the light in that in Australia we are not an island to the rest of the world. Sure it should not become as(and god forbid we do not want it) bad as in The States and the UK.

But money, its value and availabilty is becoming a world wide problem, the banks (big four too) are being sqeezed in the difficulties of working with offshore funding (up to half I understand).

From virtually zero rates in the US and Japan there is only one way from here, they may continue to hold it back for awhile but when they do break upwards things in my view will become more difficult.

And if you think that the banks will care two hoots about housing problems when the bottom line looks bad then you would have to be dreaming. And also if you think Governments have any control over the situation either and interest rates in particular. Remember the old song "sailing down the swaarrrnnneeeiiii" sounds just like the effect of our good treasurer.

And of course you have the old problem of sentiment, banks are not lending and many businesses are not looking to borrow either.

Interesting times indeed.

 

[StentorMedia]

I recently came across your post or comments and have been reading along. I thought I would leave my first comment. I don't know what to say except that it caught my interest and you've provided informative points. I will visit this forum often and I'm looking forward to know you better.. all of you..

 

[satanoperca]

RP Data anticipates that landlords will be looking to increase rents upon lease renewal.

This made me laugh, when dont landlords try to increase rents, nothing new here, it is all a case of supply and demand. Rents are determined by what people can pay not what people can borrow.

Thanks for the facts Trains, keep them coming.

Cheers

 

[kincella]

caught up with a friend, they bought their suburban Melb prop about 5 years ago for under 300k's.....they started nesting, now about to sell to upgrade to a bigger place, they are expecting to get over 600 k's for it....
they did minimal reno's in that time.....
they used to be renters with the inner city crowd, with no chance of buying at the inner city prices.....they took my advice and went outside....
never in their wildest dreams would they have ever saved or made that amount of money.....
they have big dreams for the next house......and they intend to stay in the outer leafy suburbs.......
they are very happy former FHB's....now they are called upgraders...

 

[Uncle Festivus]

http://www.theage.com.au/business/small-lenders-securitisation-bid-20101010-16e1s.html

Does this concern anybody else? B-class notes, the Australian equivalent of sub prime debt? I was aware we had a small RMBS market here in Australia but the thought of our government buying them to prop up the market worries me...

And the property permabull spuikers reckon our property market bares no resemblance to the US? Looks suspiciously like a carbon copy of US government sponsored enterprises going by the name of Freddie Mac & Fanny Mae? And we all know how well they are going! So about $20BILLION in subsidies so far and wanting more to prop the market up, and that's after the all the grants and other artificial stimulis.

Talk about going down the same path to ruin. With further calls to increase funding into more dodgy types of securitised packaged loans, bundle them up & sell em to dopey Ma & Pa Public looking for yield?

So we have the 4 pillars overexposed on their domestic residential mortgages and then have the government propping up the rest of the market that the big boys don't want?

With the currency wars just heating up, you want to hope China doesn't blink first?

Even the RBA thinks it's a bubble -

Asked if the lower yields meant a limit to the rate of price appreciation, Dr Ellis said: "The short and simple answer is - yes".

Story here
​

 

[trainspotter]

Canada is rising by 3.8% http://www.thestarphoenix.com/House+prices+rise+city/3669876/story.html

Ho ho ho ...... what have we here? 15% in 3 years??? http://www.couriermail.com.au/prope...g-outlook-report/story-e6frequ6-1225937845321

But wait ........ property is failing??????????

http://www.smh.com.au/business/property/house-prices-up-20-20101012-16hr6.html

20 % .......... unheard of stuff??? Over three years ......... you dont say???

http://www.smh.com.au/business/prop...ld-jump-20-forecasts-show-20101012-16h40.html

And here as well ??????? My goodness. I might have to get the green titles out of the safe to see if the bank manager would want to borrow me some more money !!!!!!!!!!!!!!

http://www.watoday.com.au/business/property/house-prices-up-20-20101012-16hr6.html?from=smh_ft

C'mon naysayers ......... Go and buy some property.

AHhahahahhahahahhahah *gasp* ahahshahsahhahahahhahahhah