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The RBA I imagine will be happy with some cooling. For now at least, they are still on the tightrope.
The future of Australian property prices
- Thread starter Joe Blow
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That depends - are you going to live in the stock?
That depends - are you going to live in the stock?
That depends if the New York Stock Exchange traded PLA will let me
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Gee Brisbane is looking a bit quite at the moment with a clearance rate of just 6%.
Timmy
white swans need love too
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Gee Brisbane is looking a bit quite at the moment with a clearance rate of just 6%.
And here's the collapse in prices all the bears have been waiting on for about a million years ... median price is $0!
http://www.homepriceguide.com.au/saturday_auction_results/brisbane.pdf
wayneL
VIVA LA LIBERTAD, CARAJO!
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classic
Timmy
white swans need love too
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I'm holding out for further falls.
I have my loan application in.
$0 should be within my credit limit.
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THE INTERNATIONAL FORECASTER WEDNESDAY, AUGUST 4, 2010
THE INTERNATIONAL FORECASTER
WEDNESDAY, AUGUST 4, 2010
New home sales fell for a second straight month in June to a 17-month low, as
rising interest rates continued to erode demand.
The Housing Industry Association's home sales index dropped 5.1 per cent in
June, following a 6.4 per cent drop in May, as the lingering effects of pricier loans
acted as a deterrent to new buyers entering the market.
Victoria fared the worst, with house sales sliding 10 per cent, while New South
Wales posted a 2.2 per cent fall. Sales of houses dropped 5.2 per cent in Western
Australia and 5.1 per cent in Queensland, HIA said. In South Australia new home sales
went backwards by 4.2 per cent.
HIA chief economist Harley Dale said the drop in sales highlighted the
problems facing the housing construction sector.
''Australia's dwelling shortage will continue to increase, pushing up existing
house prices and disadvantaging households seeking to purchase or rent a dwelling,''
Mr. Dale said.
"Lack of readily available land and hefty infrastructure charges have combined
with a chronic lack of development finance to put the brakes on sales and
development activity," he said.
The nation faces a 200,000 home shortfall according to federal government
estimates.
The figures come as national home prices, measured by RPData-Rismark
dropped in June, marked the first decline in 18 months. The median national home
price declined by 0.8 per cent in June, in original terms, from a 0.6 per cent increase in
May, according to RP Data-Rismark.Nationwide, private house sales also dropped to a
17-month low, falling 6.6 per cent in June to 6,847. Meanwhile, purchases of multi-unit
dwellings increased by 10.3 per cent, HIA said.How Australia's banks could trigger a
property crash:http://www.smh.com.au/business/property/how-australias-banks-could-trigger-a- property-crash-20100802-1125e.html
Building approvals have fallen for the third consecutive month, dropping
3.3 per cent in June. That follows on from a revised 6.4 per cent fall in May.
Approvals fell 3.3 per cent to 13,267 units in June, seasonally adjusted, from
an upwardly revised 13,721 units in May, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said.
In the year to June, building approvals were up 13.2 per cent, following an upwardly
revised 29.7 per cent gain in May. The median market forecast was for building
approvals to have risen 2 per cent in the month.
"This will raise concerns about supply demand imbalances leading to higher
prices, but in the meantime (it) is presenting a picture of weaker housing
construction/activity in coming months," said 4Cast Ltd chief economist Ray Attrill.
Private sector house approvals dropped 2.5 per cent in June, seasonally
adjusted, while multi-unit dwellings approvals increased 2.7 per cent, the ABS said.
"There is little in today’s report to alter the perception that the housing market is
feeling the pinch following the one-two punch of fiscal and monetary stimulus
withdrawal, namely the expiration of the expanded FHBs’ (First Home Buyers’) grant
and the return of borrowing rates to long-run average levels," said JP Morgan
economist Ben Jarman.
In New South Wales approvals dropped 6.2 per cent but in Victoria they rose
1.4 per cent in the month. In Queensland they dropped 8.1 per cent but in Western
Australia they increased 1.4 per cent.
In the month, total dwellings in South Australia went backwards by 25.4 per
cent, while in Tasmania they rose 21.3 per cent, according to the ABS.
The release came before the Reserve Bank revealed the outcome of its board
meeting on monetary policy this afternoon, keeping interest rates on hold at 4.5 percent for the third consecutive month.
The Australian dollar fell about 0.2 of a US cent, and bonds rose slightly, after
the report and another that showed retail trade was also lower than expected.
Higher interest rates and global economic uncertainty slowed but did not
stop Australians from shopping more in June.
Retail sales rose 0.2 per cent in June, seasonally adjusted, following a 0.2 per
cent increase in May, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics. In dollar terms,
that was $20.184 billion, compared with a downwardly revised $20.146 the previous
month.
The read on consumer activity, itself a barometer of the Australian economy,
rose for the fourth consecutive month. Analysts had tipped a 0.4 per cent increase for
June.
“The underlying picture is of fairly decent momentum in retail sales,” said ICAP
economist Adam Carr.
In the three months to June, retail sales minus inflation expanded 0.8 per cent
from 0.1 per cent in the March quarter, the ABS said – slightly more than the 0.7 per
cent expected.
THE INTERNATIONAL FORECASTER
WEDNESDAY, AUGUST 4, 2010
New home sales fell for a second straight month in June to a 17-month low, as
rising interest rates continued to erode demand.
The Housing Industry Association's home sales index dropped 5.1 per cent in
June, following a 6.4 per cent drop in May, as the lingering effects of pricier loans
acted as a deterrent to new buyers entering the market.
Victoria fared the worst, with house sales sliding 10 per cent, while New South
Wales posted a 2.2 per cent fall. Sales of houses dropped 5.2 per cent in Western
Australia and 5.1 per cent in Queensland, HIA said. In South Australia new home sales
went backwards by 4.2 per cent.
HIA chief economist Harley Dale said the drop in sales highlighted the
problems facing the housing construction sector.
''Australia's dwelling shortage will continue to increase, pushing up existing
house prices and disadvantaging households seeking to purchase or rent a dwelling,''
Mr. Dale said.
"Lack of readily available land and hefty infrastructure charges have combined
with a chronic lack of development finance to put the brakes on sales and
development activity," he said.
The nation faces a 200,000 home shortfall according to federal government
estimates.
The figures come as national home prices, measured by RPData-Rismark
dropped in June, marked the first decline in 18 months. The median national home
price declined by 0.8 per cent in June, in original terms, from a 0.6 per cent increase in
May, according to RP Data-Rismark.Nationwide, private house sales also dropped to a
17-month low, falling 6.6 per cent in June to 6,847. Meanwhile, purchases of multi-unit
dwellings increased by 10.3 per cent, HIA said.How Australia's banks could trigger a
property crash:http://www.smh.com.au/business/property/how-australias-banks-could-trigger-a- property-crash-20100802-1125e.html
Building approvals have fallen for the third consecutive month, dropping
3.3 per cent in June. That follows on from a revised 6.4 per cent fall in May.
Approvals fell 3.3 per cent to 13,267 units in June, seasonally adjusted, from
an upwardly revised 13,721 units in May, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said.
In the year to June, building approvals were up 13.2 per cent, following an upwardly
revised 29.7 per cent gain in May. The median market forecast was for building
approvals to have risen 2 per cent in the month.
"This will raise concerns about supply demand imbalances leading to higher
prices, but in the meantime (it) is presenting a picture of weaker housing
construction/activity in coming months," said 4Cast Ltd chief economist Ray Attrill.
Private sector house approvals dropped 2.5 per cent in June, seasonally
adjusted, while multi-unit dwellings approvals increased 2.7 per cent, the ABS said.
"There is little in today’s report to alter the perception that the housing market is
feeling the pinch following the one-two punch of fiscal and monetary stimulus
withdrawal, namely the expiration of the expanded FHBs’ (First Home Buyers’) grant
and the return of borrowing rates to long-run average levels," said JP Morgan
economist Ben Jarman.
In New South Wales approvals dropped 6.2 per cent but in Victoria they rose
1.4 per cent in the month. In Queensland they dropped 8.1 per cent but in Western
Australia they increased 1.4 per cent.
In the month, total dwellings in South Australia went backwards by 25.4 per
cent, while in Tasmania they rose 21.3 per cent, according to the ABS.
The release came before the Reserve Bank revealed the outcome of its board
meeting on monetary policy this afternoon, keeping interest rates on hold at 4.5 percent for the third consecutive month.
The Australian dollar fell about 0.2 of a US cent, and bonds rose slightly, after
the report and another that showed retail trade was also lower than expected.
Higher interest rates and global economic uncertainty slowed but did not
stop Australians from shopping more in June.
Retail sales rose 0.2 per cent in June, seasonally adjusted, following a 0.2 per
cent increase in May, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics. In dollar terms,
that was $20.184 billion, compared with a downwardly revised $20.146 the previous
month.
The read on consumer activity, itself a barometer of the Australian economy,
rose for the fourth consecutive month. Analysts had tipped a 0.4 per cent increase for
June.
“The underlying picture is of fairly decent momentum in retail sales,” said ICAP
economist Adam Carr.
In the three months to June, retail sales minus inflation expanded 0.8 per cent
from 0.1 per cent in the March quarter, the ABS said – slightly more than the 0.7 per
cent expected.
melb grew 24% last year syd 21%
hmmm.....makes my modest budget growth estimate of 10% year in year out, look very very modest....
in the case of the Melb median....its added almost another $100,000 to the price......in just one year....
no wonder some of us are happy with this asset class...
plus you have a life...just set and forget for most of the time...
ps....no changes to the current situation....neither political party is interested in helping out home buyers....
all the above growth after 6 consecutive interest rate rises....
http://theage.domain.com.au/real-estate-news/one-year-adds-98000-to-house-20100804-11fn7.html
hmmm.....makes my modest budget growth estimate of 10% year in year out, look very very modest....
in the case of the Melb median....its added almost another $100,000 to the price......in just one year....
no wonder some of us are happy with this asset class...
plus you have a life...just set and forget for most of the time...
ps....no changes to the current situation....neither political party is interested in helping out home buyers....
all the above growth after 6 consecutive interest rate rises....
http://theage.domain.com.au/real-estate-news/one-year-adds-98000-to-house-20100804-11fn7.html
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Indeed,
Interesting article in today’s fin talking about an unusually high increase in winter listings in addition to increased stock, reading between the lines it sounds like many are heading for the exits before the spring rush.
hello,
gidday Kincella, good to hear from you
i probably wont get the auction clearance rate in to everyone tonite until around 9pm,
one of my favourite movies is on at 6.30pm ch 7 Grease, due to finish at 8.50pm so will get em on after that, great dancing
thanks for understanding
thankyou
associate professor robots
gidday Kincella, good to hear from you
i probably wont get the auction clearance rate in to everyone tonite until around 9pm,
one of my favourite movies is on at 6.30pm ch 7 Grease, due to finish at 8.50pm so will get em on after that, great dancing
thanks for understanding
thankyou
associate professor robots
Hi Robots,
agree about Grease, John Travolta is a top actor, dancer and a good guy
saw him in another dance movie recently...
see this post I copied from the other forum......
You obviously don't keep a very close eye on the market. The values in my street and 2 neighbouring, have increased from $725k to $1,002 in just over 12 months with 6 sales in that time (each sale increasing by $50k-80k increments approx). They are all single storey bungalows ex housing commission style. In Sydney especially there is no stock in the mid-range price pockets.
Not sustainable but reality.
.......
this group studied super returns....its not a superfund industry figure...interesting........
retirement savings going backwards.....superfunds returning only 3%
funny.....housing returns about 10% capital growth....plus about 3-4 % annual income
I know which I would rather have.....plus I manage it all myself....no fees for some shonk to stuff it up for me either....
commercial property has been the outperformer in my portfolio....
http://au.biz.yahoo.com/100804/31/2etb1.html
hmmm.....am craving for that top cake...tiramisu at the ''special recipe'' cafe in chapel st...will have to pop down there tomorrow...
its interesting living in 2 parts of the country at the moment....and a bit exhausting....not sure if I can give up melb
cheers
agree about Grease, John Travolta is a top actor, dancer and a good guy
saw him in another dance movie recently...
see this post I copied from the other forum......
You obviously don't keep a very close eye on the market. The values in my street and 2 neighbouring, have increased from $725k to $1,002 in just over 12 months with 6 sales in that time (each sale increasing by $50k-80k increments approx). They are all single storey bungalows ex housing commission style. In Sydney especially there is no stock in the mid-range price pockets.
Not sustainable but reality.
.......
this group studied super returns....its not a superfund industry figure...interesting........
retirement savings going backwards.....superfunds returning only 3%
funny.....housing returns about 10% capital growth....plus about 3-4 % annual income
I know which I would rather have.....plus I manage it all myself....no fees for some shonk to stuff it up for me either....
commercial property has been the outperformer in my portfolio....
http://au.biz.yahoo.com/100804/31/2etb1.html
hmmm.....am craving for that top cake...tiramisu at the ''special recipe'' cafe in chapel st...will have to pop down there tomorrow...
its interesting living in 2 parts of the country at the moment....and a bit exhausting....not sure if I can give up melb
cheers
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So what,
Any figure can be baked up,
The 3% report covers the period from the tech wreck to the bottom of the recent crisis compared to a bull run in housing.
When the bubble pops we can bring up another set of numbers.
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Some pullback in prices in real terms appears inevitable in this cycle. I don't think we'll see the mass panic some of the bears are predicting but this could well be the top until we are well underway in the next RBA cutting cycle. A few abnormal market indicators starting to tick.
The number of home loans in Australia has fallen for the tenth time in the past year as the overall housing market softens.
Total loans for owner-occupied homes dropped 3.9 per cent in June, following a 1.9 per cent increase in May, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics.
Analysts had expected a 2 per cent drop in the month.
http://www.smh.com.au/business/property/home-loans-fall-as-market-softens-20100809-11s22.html
http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/5609.0?OpenDocument
Total loans for owner-occupied homes dropped 3.9 per cent in June, following a 1.9 per cent increase in May, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics.
Analysts had expected a 2 per cent drop in the month.
http://www.smh.com.au/business/property/home-loans-fall-as-market-softens-20100809-11s22.html
http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/5609.0?OpenDocument
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Yes Ginar. It's all part of the deleveraging process, as explained by Robot's mentor last week.
http://www.finnewsnetwork.com.au/ar...85b81-FNN_Investor05_08_2010&utm_medium=email
