The future of Australian property prices

[tech/a]

"Melbourne is a candidate to record price falls in the September or December quarters this year," Mr Christopher said.

These, however, were only likely to be between 1 per cent and 1.5 per cent each quarter.

PANIC!!!

Gee those 40-50% gains will be eroded a few %.

Look on the bright side

OPPORTUNITY!

 

[trainspotter]

Yes.
PPOR.
No. but by renting I am helping the landlord make his repayments.
No.
No.
No.
No. not including PPOR.

Does this help?
What about you?

Yes I have a PPOR. Three residential investment properties, 2 units, 3 commercial properties, 4 vacant blocks of residential land and 1 x 15,000sqm residential development site. Also have a 10 unit development under construction of which 6 have sold off the plan.

I am all for RE in any shape or form. Holding costs is the killer when property is not rented or delays in development are caused by bureacracy. Total LVR less than 50% so equity is not an issue.

Sunshine and lollipops all the way for me

 

[Timmy]

Here is Rory Robertson (you may remember him as the scourge of Steve "We'll all be rooned" Keen, loser of the bet) in Saturday's copy of The Australian.

Extreme predictions on house prices will continue to be wrong
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/bus...inue-to-be-wrong/story-e6frg9if-1225892981265

My strongest view on house prices is that the extremists -- in both directions -- will continue to be wrong.
...
Most observers can see positives -- including a growing economy and limited new housing supply despite rapid population growth -- and negatives, including higher mortgage rates recently alongside funding stresses and deleveraging in local and global financial systems.

I don't know what The Australian and Robertson are playing at with this article. Reasonable & rational doesn't sell newspapers!

 

[robots]

hello,

fantastic effort Trainspotter, superb

thankyou
associate professor robots

 

[trainspotter]

hello,

fantastic effort Trainspotter, superb

thankyou
associate professor robots

Thanks robots ......... I try to keep it real. There is still good coin to be made in safe RE investments. Look around. It is not all doom and gloom. Profit is not a dirty word.

 

[MR.]

I don't know what The Australian and Robertson are playing at with this article. Reasonable & rational doesn't sell newspapers!

MACQUARIE Bank again?
Last week Macquarie and the Australian reported this lack of housing:
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/bus...unlikely-to-dive/story-e6frg9gx-1225889995260

It said while 150,000 houses had been built each year since 2005, the population had grown by more than 350,000 a year.

150,000 houses built x 2.5 people per household = housing for 375,000 people! What's their point exactly, we have too many houses?

Now they report:

Then there's the collision of Australia's record immigration -- near 300,000 a year recently, about three times the usual -- with our tendency to build only about 150,000 new homes a year.

Near 300,000 a year recently, from immigration only?

http://www.citizenship.gov.au/learn/facts-and-stats/

In 2008-09, 118 196 people were approved to become Australian citizens

Ok, so 300,000 a year recently means "just this year". Ok.. Hope their facts work better for them this week.

How's this quote from the same recent article:

The good news is that -- contrary to some claims -- not everyone is overgeared. Some 60 per cent of younger households -- many with steady jobs and good incomes -- do not have a mortgage at all.

That's good news? Nah.... That's great news.
They have all paid their homes off? Some 60% of younger households? That's great, good on them.......

Sorry what's that? ... They don't have a home! Oh.....

However "Good news is not everyone is overgeared" the article said.
So is everyone "else" overgeared then?

I'm gettin a little confused here. I thought these articles from Macquarie's PR department with no vested interests were proving how rock solid and safe the property market was/is.

Need some sleep perhaps......
and good on ya, trains, Bots, Kincella

 

[sinner]

Ok, so 300,000 a year recently means "just this year". Ok.. Hope their facts work better for them this week.

Think you are a little mixed up here, MR. Citizenship will only be a portion of total permanent immigration. To that must be added permanent residency visas and citizens from the UK and NZ.

However, there is an article from the ABS in May regarding projected immigration rates:
http://au.ibtimes.com/articles/2502...grants-long-term-migrants-immigration-pol.htm

Citing changes in federal government policies and uncertain economic conditions, figures furnished by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) on Wednesday showed that net overseas migration (NOM) to the country reached 305,900 in the past 12 months leading to end of March 2009, and should slide down by end of the year.
Immigration Minister Chris Evans affirmed that the number of people migrating to Australia, which comprised both permanent migrants and long-term temporary migrants, would drop further by 20 percent by the end FY2010 and thanks to government reforms in immigration policies and shifting economic conditions.
He revealed that the immigration department is anticipating that up to 56,000 would drop out from visa applications to enter Australia and basing on the latest available data, "by the end of 2009-2010, we expect the NOM to have fallen to between 230,000 and 250,000."

 

[CamKawa]

Some interesting reading.

Thousands of first home cheats

MORE than 3000 NSW residents have been caught rorting first-homebuyer concessions, leading to a record haul last year of $7.5 million in swindled stamp duty alone and some of the rorters even being jailed.

 

[MR.]

Citizenship will only be a portion of total permanent immigration. To that must be added permanent residency visas and citizens from the UK and NZ.

Fair enough...... thanks

This 250k should keep some pressure on demand.

 

[skcots]

I wonder how many people are migrating out of Australia?
Looking for sunshine and lollipops abroad. Or uzis in the US as Robots puts it.

I am sure its far less then the intake but still relevant when talking about supply of dwellings.

I know migrants who came here as international students and are intending to return to their home countries when they pay off their student loans. I am pretty sure they are on permanent resident visas.

 

[Timmy]

I wonder how many people are migrating out of Australia?
...
relevant when talking about supply of dwellings.

Good question. I don't think it would be too hard to find out,
but I have taken the lazy way out:
What is the net effect of migration (to and from Australia)?

Answer is at the Australian Bureau of Statistics Population clock webpage
http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@...1647509ef7e25faaca2568a900154b63?OpenDocument (my bolding of the net migration number)

On 20 July 2010 at 11:09:20 AM (Canberra time), the resident population of Australia is projected to be:

22,393,075

This projection is based on the estimated resident population at 31 December 2009 and assumes growth since then of:

* one births every 1 minute and 47 seconds,
* one death every 3 minutes and 44 seconds,
* a net gain of one international migration every 1 minute and 54 seconds, leading to
* an overall total population increase of one person every 1 minute and 13 seconds.

All the assumptions behind these figures are on the page, for those with questions.

(ps. The grammar on this ABS page seems pretty poor ... but who am I to throw stones? )

 

[robots]

hello,

good evening everybody, hope you have had a good day

will get the REIV results as soon as I can brothers, its been a great week

i think Ubiquitous must be on holidays, oh well

thankyou
associate professor robots

 

[kincella]

just heard a sneak preview for tomorrows herald sun....vic will announce a new AFL ground at a regional city in victoria......I bet its Bendigo...thats where Brumby has a house....
so that should spark an interest in houses...at whatever regional city....
another boom or opportunity for those interested...it will be good for tourism and accommodation providors too

and the train service to Maryborough commenced again.....more good news for those living out in the sweet country air....can travel to the city
again ....good news to invigorate regional towns.....at 2.5 hours it s not for the workers.....but just having access to the city is a great plus

they said Mildura is still waiting for their rail service to resume after a decade....brumby said they were still looking into it....hahahahaha

 

[robots]

hello,

http://www.reiv.com.au/home/inside.asp?ID=162&nav1=1226&nav2=162

oh yeah, 67% clearance, top effort

great data which the RBA will like

i reckon Ubiquitous might of just got back from holidays, oh well

thankyou
associate professor robots

 

[robots]

just heard a sneak preview for tomorrows herald sun....vic will announce a new AFL ground at a regional city in victoria......I bet its Bendigo...thats where Brumby has a house....
so that should spark an interest in houses...at whatever regional city....
another boom or opportunity for those interested...it will be good for tourism and accommodation providors too

and the train service to Maryborough commenced again.....more good news for those living out in the sweet country air....can travel to the city
again ....good news to invigorate regional towns.....at 2.5 hours it s not for the workers.....but just having access to the city is a great plus

they said Mildura is still waiting for their rail service to resume after a decade....brumby said they were still looking into it....hahahahaha

hello,

well done Kincella,

Ballarat scored again, well done Robots top effort man

little bit more boost for the town, state government doing a great job

thankyou
associate professor robots

 

[MACCA350]

Buyers continue to have the upper hand; homes selling at auction are not exceeding vendors’ reserves in the same way that they were before Anzac Day.

Cheers

 

[robots]

hello,

good afternoon,

didnt know where to post this so placed here:

http://www.theage.com.au/business/modest-cpi-is-gillards-gain-20100728-10v92.html?autostart=1

well done Kincella, picked it again, what a great day

thankyou
associate professor robots

 

[Mofra]

just heard a sneak preview for tomorrows herald sun....vic will announce a new AFL ground at a regional city in victoria......I bet its Bendigo...thats where Brumby has a house....
so that should spark an interest in houses...at whatever regional city....
another boom or opportunity for those interested...it will be good for tourism and accommodation providors too

Have been looking at Bendigo myself actually - the % of renters is higher than elsewhere in Victoria, not too much smaller than Ballarat and it's a half-hour down the road to Heathcote for some of the most consistently high quality shiraz of an region in Australia.

 

[tehnoob]

House prices are down in June, everywhere but Adelaide. With interest rates seemingly on hold can we expect this to stabilise over the coming months?

The data represents "a striking deceleration" in the quarterly rate of increase in home values, said Christopher Joye, managing director at Rismark.

Courtesy of today's Australian:

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/bus...-adelaide-survey/story-e6frg926-1225898958839

 

[robots]

hello,

oh well, who knows tehnoob what will happen

just plod along, i dont know, so many different opinions out there but thanks for the data

i post the weekly auction clearance rates for this thread, normally around 7.30pm saturday, just helping out like BigDog,

what it all means wouldnt have a clue

thankyou
associate professor robots