The financial year is over! How did you do?

[Zaxon]

Up 11% on closed positions this FY (41% Wins, 59% Loss)
Don't like to celebrate open profits in a sluggish weekly system too loudly, but for Closed+Open profits accross the FY: Up 31%

That's a good result. I've noticed the trend traders/investors have done well this year, based on those posting in this thread.

Hope Captain doesn't jinx us too soon mentioning small cap returns are well above norm currently

Over the last 12 months, small caps have underperformed large caps. However, some individual small caps have done very well, so it all comes down to stock picking.

 

[Zaxon]

EFY ,
weekly system=22%
recent daily system=-9%

Good return on your weekly. Were the systems you used different, or just the timescales?

 

[willoneau]

the daily was made up of different strategy as posted , but then reverted to same as weekly for entry signal but different money management was introduced. Still a work in progress though.
I am impulsive and can over trade so realize i need to follow a mechanical system and not a discretionary system as i tried following tech/a .

 

[Value Hunter]

The past financial year my gross share portfolio performance was a gain of around around 63% unrealized gains on total assets. (On equity capital it is higher due to leverage being used). There were no realized gains or losses). In addition I did receive some net dividend income.

It is based on a concentrated portfolio and a long-term value investing approach with very little turnover in holdings.

 

[Zaxon]

The past financial year my gross share portfolio performance was a gain of around around 63% unrealized gains on total assets. (On equity capital it is higher due to leverage being used).

Impressive. And good to hear from a value investor. It seems they've been hiding. How much leverage do you use?

 

[Value Hunter]

Zaxon for me leverage varies and is not a static amount. In my share portfolio I am currently around 40 - 45% gearing.

 

[kahuna1]

Hi ho ...

Well ... if one makes 30% a year, 21% after tax consistently from 100k in 10 years your 650k.
Even taking out inflation, and say an after tax 18% consistent return, your at over 500k year 10.

Year 20 ... in very real inflation adjusted terms your 2.5 million.
Year 30 ... around 13 million.

Whilst having a well diversified and lower risk portfolio is not sexy on these sites, a few, choice picks and held for some time say like CSL or MFG up 50 fold in 10 years spans ... CSL did its run earlier ... and then picking the eyes out of rallies and reducing and conversely buying onto panic like late 2018 ...

It is possible. Of course I have been mean with the 30% tax rate, but company tax rate, verses say holding a stock once its 5 times up, capital gains ... makes it unwise and not advisable to play too much into rallies and cycles until if you decide to take the money off the table as it gets quite idiotic.

Anyhow, just food for thought, each to their own.

Hasten slowly.

 

[Zaxon]

Well ... if one makes 30% a year, 21% after tax consistently from 100k in 10 years your 650k.
Year 20 ... in very real inflation adjusted terms your 2.5 million.
Year 30 ... around 13 million.

13 million is about what I deserve. Off to make 30% a year, with no negative returns ever...

Whilst having a well diversified and lower risk portfolio is not sexy on these sites, a few, choice picks and held for some time say like CSL or MFG up 50 fold in 10 years spans ... CSL did its run earlier ... and then picking the eyes out of rallies and reducing and conversely buying onto panic like late 2018 ...

Yes, a few choice shares like CSL and MFG held for decades could set you up for life. Although that sounds more like an argument for a concentrated portfolio in "choice" shares, rather than for a diversified one.

It is possible. Of course I have been mean with the 30% tax rate, but company tax rate, verses say holding a stock once its 5 times up, capital gains ... makes it unwise and not advisable to play too much into rallies and cycles until if you decide to take the money off the table as it gets quite idiotic.

Yup. In the perfect, low-taxed portfolio, you would be paid no dividends, hold everything for > 12 months, and never sell a single share until you needed the money. Perhaps some people do that.

 

[HelloU]

confused here,
kahuna,
i thought u said in the other thread that you were slowly selling shares cos you thought the market was too hot? Did i misread that when i thought you were moving into cash due to your world concerns?

(or maybe i misread this? i thought here you were advocating holding thru thick and thin ..... did i get that interpretation wrong here? ... i do find it difficult to work out what you are saying in most of your posts but that is not said to be a criticism)

 

[kahuna1]

Although that sounds more like an argument for a concentrated portfolio in "choice" shares, rather than for a diversified one.

Well, as someone who for 25 plus years has shared ideas and portfolios .... ONE ... let alone two monsters even at 3% initial investment for something that goes nuts, can and will take over the portfolio. NOT decades ... but around 5-10 years the lions share is made.

ONE flea, split in half, then split again and went from well 20 cent entry and then free shares so 5 cents to up near $10- and essentially one doesn't need much to take over the portfolio when its risen 200 times.

CSL is up there, MFG and NO its not PDN or even FMG ,,, which my love hate affair with some stocks and FMG at over $10- pre GFC replaced with a love under $2- ...

Now, well ... at all time highs and scant prospects out there for the next big thing, I have no brilliant ideas as were around say in the 1995 -2000 period and even 2006-10 rise and GFC fallout.

One I am sure will come along, and a mere 3% goes nutty as it does sometimes and even a big portfolio ends up being 50% one stock. Of course, being prudent, I reduce and at times confound followers of some stocks such as the rise and fall of SLX which had a massive breakthrough and went 10 fold in short order and I exited, due to the fact that even if things went right, which they DID not, despite world beating technology, it was reflecting a price 15 years into the future.

Such is life.

 

[Zaxon]

confused here,
i do find it difficult to work out what you are saying in most of your posts

Yes, it can be tricky. I feel like it's gone through Google Translate a few times.

 

[Zaxon]

Well, as someone who for 25 plus years has shared ideas and portfolios .... ONE ... let alone two monsters even at 3% initial investment for something that goes nuts, can and will take over the portfolio. NOT decades ... but around 5-10 years the lions share is made.

For those investors who like to "rebalance" outperforming shares, because they judge them as to risky - let's call them "reversion to the meaners", they probably wouldn't benefit from long term, high growth stocks. But if you're prepared to hold on to your winners, it's definitely a good strategy.

 

[kahuna1]

confused here,
kahuna,
i thought u said in the other thread that you were slowly selling shares cos you thought the market was too hot? Did i misread that when i thought you were moving into cash due to your world concerns?

YEs I am ... and whist I just posted ... there are few if any stocks that amuse me right now. MFG at $55- verses $1- ignoring tax implications ... is basically a leveraged punt on the AUD going down and the USA stocks going up.

Of the rest, I was not in love with banks, but twice was compelled to add pre Royal commission results when yields implied had them at 7% plus ... then they bounced 15% .... only to be spanked again as the market tanked late 2018 .... and visited similar levels ...

Different styles and objectives.
Is there a CSL ... or MFG or say shiny spec or mining stock I like or love here ? Well NO and most I look at or that are suggested are trading as though perfect conditions will apply and more than likely contain absurd profit assumptions unlikely to be met.

When a tech stock with 177 mio sales is trading at 10 billion market cap, much like in the 1999-2000 period, I know either I have lost my mind or they have.

History tells me, even if my exit and removal of large swathes of stocks up here at all time highs for the USA is wrong, I will ... guaranteed during the next correction get to enter likely 10/% lower even in a mild market correction of say 8%. Individual stocks even the biggest winners, such as say CSL or even JBH Jb Hi Fi during a 10% correction they quite often get slammed 20% if not 30% year over time, they are the very best long term performers.

Confusing ... and little to do with charts ... more a fundamental Macro style outlook married with valuation on a fundamental basis. YEs ... sure ... the chart helps but not to see some imagined trend ... but to measure how stupid the correction gets and whilst people run for the exit, in the midst of end of the world, you buy stocks.

Any stock that is worthless and a lot are, if one just looked at a chart, even for say One Tel which went bust many moons ago, i am sure it was worthless for at least 5 years porior to bust, yet the chart would be telling the devoted followers it was a buy at $3= or $10- when ... it was worth ZERO all along.

Uranium bull market pre GFC ... so much hot air, so many things going on ... a short term under-supply was seen as the end of the world, a mine flooding and such absurd bullish comments, yet economics of a nuclear reactor in 2006 cost DOUBLE per KW h unless built in China with ultra cheap labour and then one got to permits and public outcry .... let alone the fact that at $120- lb, there is enough Uranium to supply the world needs for 100 years. One mine alone, BHP Olympic dam ... had 20 years worth, not aoffical at the time, but decent research and WMC who was taken over by BHP had drilled and confirmed the size fairly reliably ....

Anyhow .... worthless trash, rose from 1 cent to $10- in some cases, few were in at 1 cent, everyone was an expert at $10- .... now the stock ... 35 cents ? So so many of these abound.

So nope, not holding my breath here on tech side, or some medical stock that may or may not discover something, or well a miner which without Xray vision or a very good idea from old drills what lies below a waste of time.

CDU ... whatever they are called now, copper deposit near Cloncurry, now company broke ... went up and since I knew the area, and ground, and watched amazed, not owning, I noted RIO had drilled the site and dismissed it. Eventually after much hot air, years of it, ASX and ASIC involved ... I wince at the amounts lost ...

Then again, chart wise, buying a frog that's worthless is irrelevant and eventually, one day, out of the blue ... ooohh ... they are in receivership ... your shares are worth zero.

Of course, in a bull market with lots of suckers out there, less likely as the scam can be passed on .. and on and ON .... one stock I love to hate has drilled 1,000 odd holes and charged 1.5 million management fees for each year, never found a thing, but every 12-18 months a media blitz and hopes are ignited, new suckers abound ... new share issue ... and it was that good they got another company with the same model and same fees ... neither ... has ever mined anything other than suckers wallets and are unlikely ever to make a profit.

Then again, miracles occur, but rarely ... and if I were asking to get the 30 million its been sucked dry for over the past decade back, ....

I have digressed ... bottom line at all time highs in what is a very strange and risk loaded global market let alone violent ... to have it ignored and at all time valuation highs verses GDP in the USA is a good place to hide and see what occurs.

Take care .

 

[kahuna1]

For those investors who like to "rebalance" outperforming shares, because they judge them as to risky - let's call them "reversion to the meaners", they probably wouldn't benefit from long term, high growth stocks. But if you're prepared to hold on to your winners, it's definitely a good strategy

Nothing like misquoting me !!
When a stock, a 3% hold rises 10 fold and becomes 30% of a portfolio and then doubles, which does occur but rarely, calling it a reversion to mean is ... silly.

Go look at MFF holdings and records of their holdings and how long the top two have been held, Visa and MasterCard.

P.S he, the fund manager is in the top 100 of all value fund managers in the world. Co founder of MFG ... and well ... its not a great analogy, but as the index has risen, a 3% hold has gone to a 12% hold as the stock has risen at 3 times even the index gains.

I would read his comments on the 30th June 2019 and his views, somewhat similar to my own. I have the flexibility to be more proactive than he does with a fund and exit and enter .... but when a person who rode the GFC and well outperformed the overall market as the fund manger of both MFG and MFF at the time, well ... I think he may know his stuff. Outperforming the stellar returns of the index and even after fee's 90% of fund managers fail on 3,5, and 10 year time frames. TO beat it, by 2% .... 96% fail on and as I said ... top 100 out of 10,000 is ... well 99% ... astounding. Buffett post 2000 not even close.

Each to their own.

 

[HelloU]

YEs I am ... and whist I just posted ... there are few if any stocks that amuse me right now. MFG at $55- verses $1- ignoring tax implications ... is basically a leveraged punt on the AUD going down and the USA stocks going up.

Of the rest, I was not in love with banks, but twice was compelled to add pre Royal commission results when yields implied had them at 7% plus ... then they bounced 15% .... only to be spanked again as the market tanked late 2018 .... and visited similar levels ...

Different styles and objectives.
Is there a CSL ... or MFG or say shiny spec or mining stock I like or love here ? Well NO and most I look at or that are suggested are trading as though perfect conditions will apply and more than likely contain absurd profit assumptions unlikely to be met.

When a tech stock with 177 mio sales is trading at 10 billion market cap, much like in the 1999-2000 period, I know either I have lost my mind or they have.

History tells me, even if my exit and removal of large swathes of stocks up here at all time highs for the USA is wrong, I will ... guaranteed during the next correction get to enter likely 10/% lower even in a mild market correction of say 8%. Individual stocks even the biggest winners, such as say CSL or even JBH Jb Hi Fi during a 10% correction they quite often get slammed 20% if not 30% year over time, they are the very best long term performers.

Confusing ... and little to do with charts ... more a fundamental Macro style outlook married with valuation on a fundamental basis. YEs ... sure ... the chart helps but not to see some imagined trend ... but to measure how stupid the correction gets and whilst people run for the exit, in the midst of end of the world, you buy stocks.

Any stock that is worthless and a lot are, if one just looked at a chart, even for say One Tel which went bust many moons ago, i am sure it was worthless for at least 5 years porior to bust, yet the chart would be telling the devoted followers it was a buy at $3= or $10- when ... it was worth ZERO all along.

Uranium bull market pre GFC ... so much hot air, so many things going on ... a short term under-supply was seen as the end of the world, a mine flooding and such absurd bullish comments, yet economics of a nuclear reactor in 2006 cost DOUBLE per KW h unless built in China with ultra cheap labour and then one got to permits and public outcry .... let alone the fact that at $120- lb, there is enough Uranium to supply the world needs for 100 years. One mine alone, BHP Olympic dam ... had 20 years worth, not aoffical at the time, but decent research and WMC who was taken over by BHP had drilled and confirmed the size fairly reliably ....

Anyhow .... worthless trash, rose from 1 cent to $10- in some cases, few were in at 1 cent, everyone was an expert at $10- .... now the stock ... 35 cents ? So so many of these abound.

So nope, not holding my breath here on tech side, or some medical stock that may or may not discover something, or well a miner which without Xray vision or a very good idea from old drills what lies below a waste of time.

CDU ... whatever they are called now, copper deposit near Cloncurry, now company broke ... went up and since I knew the area, and ground, and watched amazed, not owning, I noted RIO had drilled the site and dismissed it. Eventually after much hot air, years of it, ASX and ASIC involved ... I wince at the amounts lost ...

Then again, chart wise, buying a frog that's worthless is irrelevant and eventually, one day, out of the blue ... ooohh ... they are in receivership ... your shares are worth zero.

Of course, in a bull market with lots of suckers out there, less likely as the scam can be passed on .. and on and ON .... one stock I love to hate has drilled 1,000 odd holes and charged 1.5 million management fees for each year, never found a thing, but every 12-18 months a media blitz and hopes are ignited, new suckers abound ... new share issue ... and it was that good they got another company with the same model and same fees ... neither ... has ever mined anything other than suckers wallets and are unlikely ever to make a profit.

Then again, miracles occur, but rarely ... and if I were asking to get the 30 million its been sucked dry for over the past decade back, ....

I have digressed ... bottom line at all time highs in what is a very strange and risk loaded global market let alone violent ... to have it ignored and at all time valuation highs verses GDP in the USA is a good place to hide and see what occurs.

Take care .

thanks mate, that one i could work my way thru ok and no more to clear up, cheers.

 

[Knobby22]

Worked it out.

I made 22% for the year and cashed 17% which was used to pay off some of my share loan and house loan as well as pay for my wife's significant birthday party.

Returns exclude dividends which were used to help pay share loan interest. Share loan is down from $143,000 to $132,000

I think it was a combination of the rising ASX, stock picking and trend trading.
Easiest year in a while. Avoiding banks has been a good tactic.

 

[12Percent]

What was your return?

17.5%

Did you try something new this year?

Model based value strategy.

Did it work.

Yes, almost hit the back tested averages for the strategy, only my second year of active investing so happy with the percentage above the index.

What mistakes did you make?

Had a side gamble on a spec stock based on possibilities rather than probabilities, lesson learned, never again.

Are you changing how you invest/trade for the next year?

Hopefully not.

 

[Zaxon]

What was your return?
17.5%

Excellent. You outperformed the index. Well done!

Did you try something new this year?
Model based value strategy.

Did it work.
Yes, almost hit the back tested averages for the strategy, only my second year of active investing so happy with the percentage above the index.

It's always interesting to see how backtested methods go when they're released to the wild. So far so good.

 

[statmech71]

Hi Zaxon — loving the thread and a big thanks to all the contributors willing to share.

My return was close to 100% for the year starting from a small account. I use a momentum based system inspired partly by Tech/a 's approach — so many thanks to Tech for so generously sharing his insights on his threads.

Ive now dedicated more funds following the initial success and have in the meantime developed my own code to backtest it more formally and have confirmed the positive expectancy of the system in diverse market conditions.

Next phase for me is system optimisation and development of more systems. This forum is a fantastic source of information and Im brimming with ideas. Looking forward to the journey.

All the best with your trading ASFers.

Paul

 

[Zaxon]

Hi Zaxon — loving the thread and a big thanks to all the contributors willing to share.

Agreed.

My return was close to 100% for the year starting from a small account. I use a momentum based system inspired partly by Tech/a 's approach — so many thanks to Tech for so generously sharing his insights on his threads.

Very impressive! That settles it. I'll just give you all my money next year

Ive now dedicated more funds following the initial success and have in the meantime developed my own code to backtest it more formally and have confirmed the positive expectancy of the system in diverse market conditions.

How long is your average holding period of a position?