The financial year is over! How did you do?

[tech/a]

CB

We--Our?

20 systems average $15K over Average 15 positions
$4.5 Million to run.
You have a group funding these?
Or are they Paper traded?
Do you lease them?

If $15K is an issue getting in and out of a trade does liquidity play a part in the system filters at all?
If not do things NOT improve with one (I'm sure you've tested this).

Terrific results by the way---even the worst results!

 

[captain black]

We--Our?

I have a trading partner with a background in sysadmin/server management who has helped automate all the systems. We trade our combined capital as well as our own separate accounts.

20 systems average $15K over Average 15 positions
$4.5 Million to run.

Most of the 20 are day traded futures systems so don't require the same capital as share trading. It's more than $1 million overall but not $4.5.

Do you lease them?

No, all our own systems. After 20 years I've built up quite a collection and my partner has a few of his own as well.

If $15K is an issue getting in and out of a trade does liquidity play a part in the system filters at all?

Definitely. We don't restrict ourselves to the ASX200 or the All Ords so we pick up quite a few small caps. When they have momentum behind them getting in and out isn't an issue but momentum can dry up very quickly so we tend to take profits in our momentum systems when volume is still high.

This has been an exceptional year with quite low drawdowns. I mentioned in my futures thread about a drawdown of 35% in one of my momentum systems back in 2011. That was at the same time as I got caught up in the MF Global bankruptcy. I nearly gave it all away, thankfully I didn't.

 

[tech/a]

No, all our own systems. After 20 years I've built up quite a collection and my partner has a few of his own as well.

Thanks CB

What I meant was do you lease them to others like they do on these types of Platforms

https://www.optimizedtrading.com/leasing.html

This is simply an example. I know nothing about them.

 

[captain black]

What I meant was do you lease them to others like they do on these types of Platforms

https://www.optimizedtrading.com/leasing.html

This is simply an example. I know nothing about them.

Ah, sorry tech, misunderstood, thought you were asking if we lease in other's systems.

I wouldn't ever lease the share trading systems to someone else because of the liquidity issues. I don't want to be competing in the open and close auctions in small cap stocks with someone else trading the same systems.

The futures systems dont have the same issues with liquidity but leasing them out isn't really something I've thought about.

 

[IFocus]

Stunning numbers Captain and congratulations to everyone else.

Your story Peter is interesting but I note your conscious observance of the issues very professional and sets you well apart from a punter.

I was looking to start trading again last year after a long lay off and run a whimsical thread on my return but ongoing health issues have kept me out.

Ironically a detached retina got me into the market 5 weeks ago

Up a couple of percent trading and about 12% for the super. Caught the run up in gold for Super and missed most of the big breakouts in trading.

I am still at punter level and will need to get up to speed quickly as this current trend will end soon.

 

[Zaxon]

We trade over 20 systems across a variety of markets but the focus here is on ASX returns so I'll post our best and worst system returns on the ASX.

Excellent performance! And a good amount of detail you've given. You sound like you're doing a lot of A/B testing of portfolios against each other. Are you finding consistent winners, or does it end up being more that, say, IBIS outperforms in this market, and Rakali outperforms in another?

 

[Zaxon]

Caught the run up in gold for Super and missed most of the big breakouts in trading.

Gold ETFs or gold miners?

 

[IFocus]

Gold ETFs or gold miners?

You always pretty much always gain a higher return (about x2 plus) from owning gold miners rather than an ETF I was a little conservative and bought SAR and NCM.

 

[sptrawler]

Well I'm still self funded, so that is good, still have the same capital I started with so I'm happy.

 

[Zaxon]

Well I'm still self funded, so that is good, still have the same capital I started with so I'm happy.

Yup. If your investment returns can cover all your costs, there's not much more you want out of life. Did you add a little bit extra for inflation?

 

[sptrawler]

Yup. If your investment returns can cover all your costs, there's not much more you want out of life. Did you add a little bit extra for inflation?

No just removed less than I made.
Which will become more difficult as I age and drawdown requirements increase.
But thats how it is meant to work

 

[leyy]

I had a very good year.

What was your return?

Average Net P&L for all portfolio's is 52% (Trading profits and loss, including realized and unrealized profit and loss, less brokerage and including dividends) No leverage.

Break down of the above P&L

SMSF Net P&L is 20% Gain (More risk adverse, Chasing higher dividend yields and only ASX 300)
Personal #1 Net P&L is 98% Gain (Medium-Long Term, Small-Mid cap equities, Chasing Capital Growth, Trend following)
Personal #2 Net P&L is 84% Gain (Medium-Long Term, Small-Mid cap equities, Chasing Capital Growth, Trend following)

Average Days Held: 382 days

Biggest winners are: APX, JIN, WTC, APT

Did you try something new this year? Yes, I started to take more profits on the big winners and reinvesting them in new opportunities.

What mistakes did you make? BAL, BKL, BIN, PPS, KGN were my big losers. I cut them off a bit later than I would have liked (lesson learnt). I entered in these stocks when they retraced rather then breakouts and signals were not strong enough confirming a change in trends.


Are you changing how you invest/trade for the next year? Seems to be relatively successful so will keep at it and continue to fine tune.

 

[So_Cynical]

I ran a report last night, FY up about 15% with dividends - all closed trades, 14% open trade profit, biggest mistake was breaking my own rules and being a little emotional, took an average down that i just should not have taken, i just should of waited and i would of made a better decision the stock has no pretty much gone to zero, the other mistake was selling APT to early, i could of made 70K on that stock but only ended up with a bit over half that.

Looking back over the last 10 years its the 4 stocks that have gone to zero on me that (surprise surprise) have really hurt returns wise, i average about low teens but with those zero stocks taken out i would be well into the 20's.

 

[Zaxon]

Average Net P&L for all portfolio's is 52%

An amazing result. Well done!

SMSF Net P&L is 20% Gain (More risk adverse, Chasing higher dividend yields and only ASX 300)
Personal #1 Net P&L is 98% Gain (Medium-Long Term, Small-Mid cap equities, Chasing Capital Growth, Trend following)
Personal #2 Net P&L is 84% Gain (Medium-Long Term, Small-Mid cap equities, Chasing Capital Growth, Trend following)

Very interesting break down here. Would you ever consider bringing your trend following into your SMSF? Or do you feel you need a dividend approach to compensate for years where your personal portfolios won't do so well?

Did you try something new this year? Yes, I started to take more profits on the big winners and reinvesting them in new opportunities.

What mistakes did you make? BAL, BKL, BIN, PPS, KGN were my big losers. I cut them off a bit later than I would have liked (lesson learnt).

Thanks for the excellent level of detail. It gives us a really good insight into your year.

 

[investtrader]

Weekly system 20 positions. Account size > $1mill (which is only relevant as it is easier when trading smaller)

 

[captain black]

Excellent performance! And a good amount of detail you've given. You sound like you're doing a lot of A/B testing of portfolios against each other. Are you finding consistent winners, or does it end up being more that, say, IBIS outperforms in this market, and Rakali outperforms in another?

Sorry @Zaxon I missed this earlier.

We have systems that outperform other systems over the long run and in a perfect world we'd be trading my Ibis system with a lot more capital but because of liquidity issues with small cap stocks we're limited to only $150K for that system so we trade other lower performing systems rather than having cash sitting idle.

Liquidity on the ASX is the one of reasons we trade overseas stock markets as well as futures.

 

[Zaxon]

Weekly system 20 positions. Account size > $1mill (which is only relevant as it is easier when trading smaller)

Good result. I think 20 positions captures the sweet spot between being concentrated for performance, and not being reckless, so it's good to see that carried through to larger accounts.

I'm going to assume you're an investor based on what you've shown. What style do you do? So far in this thread we've seen momentum, trend, long term hold and some traders. I'm thinking the value investors are hiding at the moment, as far as people who've given actual results.

 

[leyy]

An amazing result. Well done!

Very interesting break down here. Would you ever consider bringing your trend following into your SMSF? Or do you feel you need a dividend approach to compensate for years where your personal portfolios won't do so well?

Thanks for the excellent level of detail. It gives us a really good insight into your year.

Yes definitely given it is more profitable. However, I need to take a more conservative approach as I manage the superfund for several family members so my risk tolerance is much lower compared to my own personal accounts where it is just my money on the table.

 

[Newt]

Weekly trend trading about 15 positions ASX:

Up 11% on closed positions this FY (41% Wins, 59% Loss)

Don't like to celebrate open profits in a sluggish weekly system too loudly, but for Closed+Open profits accross the FY: Up 31%

The DD at the end of last calendar was not fun, but the climb up to new equity highs this year made up for things. Hope Captain doesn't jinx us too soon mentioning small cap returns are well above norm currently

 

[willoneau]

EFY ,
weekly system=22%
recent daily system=-9%