Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

The financial year is over! How did you do?

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Interesting post GB
This year has strangely been a good year thanks to my pessimist side, my Bboz losses where more than offset by the gold and usd, bond positions...at last some smile at tge end of the year
And got the time to follow Skate then worked on starting my own system..liked it the design phase, the scare and thrill of starting
One regret i started late and missed the January jump...
Still managed to do many beginner errors buying Sea on a feeling and selling after losing 2.5k

Where was my analysis, my stop loss etc etc.. i should know better by now ...
Will do better next year, have to as my miss and i entered retirement and are probably 15y away from pension access...
A good year
 
qldfrog said:
Interesting post GB
This year has strangely been a good year thanks to my pessimist side, my Bboz losses where more than offset by the gold and usd, bond positions
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Interesting. So it was straight out negative expectation for the market as opposed to using BBOZ for hedging?
qldfrog said:
One regret i started late and missed the January jump...
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Yes, Jan was very significant, in fact, this whole calendar year has seen massive growth. Not much good if you're holding BBOZ though :)
qldfrog said:
Still managed to do many beginner errors buying Sea on a feeling and selling after losing 2.5k
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Not a good second half to SEA. To some extent, it tracked similarly to BBOZ.

upload_2019-6-29_19-19-16.png
 
Zaxon said:
Interesting. So it was straight out negative expectation for the market as opposed to using BBOZ for hedging?

Yes, Jan was very significant, in fact, this whole calendar year has seen massive growth. Not much good if you're holding BBOZ though :)

Not a good second half to SEA. To some extent, it tracked similarly to BBOZ.

View attachment 95809
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As most, i have a lot of my wealth in RE, land and house on it, an investment property: residential on the coast and a small warehouse,
Also some super plus my portfolio so i find it wise to insure/edge that australian exposure with some bboz
A RE crash will in my opinion be matched by an asx crash if only with the weight of banks
I also edge with gold and usd exposure.
Let's be honest, when the aud goes from 1 usd to 69c, i lose 30pc of my wealth
So if the asx or my portfolio goes up 10pc, lower after paying tax,i im a looser anyway in usd not even considering inflation
My view....
 
Zaxon said:
Are you taking the "I'm about to retire, so I had better put everything into safe, interest bearing assets" route, or the "I could live for another 30 years, so I need to be invested in high growth assets" approach?
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30/70 or there about - will soon be about 30% safe and 70% at risk, with just maybe half of that risk at the higher end, one has to stay the growth road but well one has to put some out of harms way.

----------------

Interesting look back - 2009 FLOORED The Complete Documentary Film.

 
Klogg said:
ANO and DDR my 2 largest holdings - collectively now make about 70% of holdings. Explains the gains
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It does indeed! I made 56.3% this financial year. I also own ANO, although for me, it's 14% of my holdings. I also owned DDR, but don't now.

Do you consider yourself a momentum investor, or more long term where you would hold ANO and DDR even if they trended sideways for a long time?
 
Zaxon said:
It does indeed! I made 56.3% this financial year. I also own ANO, although for me, it's 14% of my holdings. I also owned DDR, but don't now.

Do you consider yourself a momentum investor, or more long term where you would hold ANO and DDR even if they trended sideways for a long time?
Click to expand...

Interesting thread and worth exploring.
When you talk of making "56%" in the financial year Zaxon is that realised gain or improvement in share values or other stock ?
 
Zaxon said:
It does indeed! I made 56.3% this financial year. I also own ANO, although for me, it's 14% of my holdings. I also owned DDR, but don't now.

Do you consider yourself a momentum investor, or more long term where you would hold ANO and DDR even if they trended sideways for a long time?
Click to expand...

Definitely long term. Held DDR for 4 years so far, ANO about 14 months.

Momentum does not come into my thought process for making an investment. It's purely a function of expected cash flows vs the price paid.
 
basilio said:
Interesting thread and worth exploring.
When you talk of making "56%" in the financial year Zaxon is that realised gain or improvement in share values or other stock ?
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Think of it like a mutual fund. I'm measuring total funds under management. Stocks sold are immediately reinvested. The 56% is from 1-Jul-2018.

With the mini crash in the market late last year, I started graphing my results from Oct 12, to make sure I was doing my job. At the end of each weak, I plot the current portfolio value against the US and ASX indices. Hopefully, I outperform them :)

upload_2019-6-30_16-9-8.png

This year I went "professional", as in earned an equivalent to a full time wage from my investing. Zaxon's past performance is no guarantee of future results, but we can always hope :)
 
I hope I don't shock too many of you by stating that I've had one of my worst FY performances. This applies only to the part of my SMSF that trades in ASX stocks. I fell victim to my own mind.

Let me outline what I mean. My portfolios got off to a blistering start gaining 10% in the first two months (July, Aug18). In Sep18 the markets started to decline. I wasn't concerned about the underlying eco fundamentals and bought a position in the market ETF GEAR. The plan was to hold GEAR through the dip and add every time the XAO fell another 10%. I anticipated that the market wouldn't fall by more than 20%. (It didn't, falling -15%). However the GEAR ETF is geared (x 2.4) and this caused my portfolios to suffer draw downs greater than my self imposed -10% limit. My worst portfolio hit -13% and this concerned me greatly. This was a classic example of not being prepared for this outcome. **

** XAO fell 15% meaning GEAR should fall ~36%, in fact GEAR fell 33%. So, with a position size of 30% I should have anticipated a portfolio DD of 33% of 30% or -10% plus a few extra % for losses realised from stock trades when the market fell. I should have expected to have a DD between 10-15% and stuck to the plan to buy more when the rally started.

The rally started Jan19 and I did not add to the position because I was overly concerned about the larger than allowable DDs. The rally continued higher and I soon realised that I'd missed the opportunity to add to the GEAR position. The R:R was not acceptable in Feb/Mar19. My mind was in the Twilight Zone not the Trading Zone.

Having totally messed up my attempt to be a longer term "investor" with a good portion of my portfolio, can you imagine my trading mindset at the time? It wasn't in a good place. One thing I've never done is to chase price. If I can't or don't buy it at the correct time and price I'll let it go. I let a lot of great trends go higher without me.

Currently my portfolios are a few % below equity highs instead of at new highs. I'm greatly disappointed by my failure to stick to a plan and to be so negatively influenced by known psychological biases.

If this can happen to me then it can happen to anyone. It may also be a good example why many people prefer mechanical/automated trading methods.
 
peter2 said:
I hope I don't shock too many of you by stating that I've had one of my worst FY performances.
If this can happen to me then it can happen to anyone. It may also be a good example why many people prefer mechanical/automated trading methods.
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What a very instructional story. We need to be sharing both our good and bad stories, and often as a community we learn far more from when something didn't go right, so thanks for sharing this.

Are you going to continue to hold a portion of your assets using a longer term strategy, or has that scared you off for now?
 
PZ99 said:
Mine will be hard to work out. I think it's around +44% all up ~ around 30% on paper and the rest in trading gains.
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Very impressive. You don't keep a tally as you go? I guess as a trader, you're really only tracking the closed trades.
 
We trade over 20 systems across a variety of markets but the focus here is on ASX returns so I'll post our best and worst system returns on the ASX. We haven't been able to get a Mean Reversion type system to work on the ASX so the results are from our Momentum and Trend Following systems.

The momentum systems are traded with 10 positions each with a position size of 15K. Returns aren't compounded as we've found it too difficult to move in and out of small cap stocks with greater than 15K.

The trend following systems are traded with 20 positions each with a position size of 15K. Once again, returns aren't compounded for same reason.

Momentum.

Best:

IBIS system (with machine learning based filters)

Return: 99%

Winners : 57%
Losers : 43%

Avg Win : 12%
Avg Loss : 7%

Worst:

Rakali System

Return : 45%

Winners: 42%
Losers : 58%

Avg Win : 10%
Avg Loss : 5%


Trend Following.

Best:

Hawk System

Return: 41%

Winners : 39%
Losers : 61%

Avg Win : 33%
Avg Loss: 10%

Worst:

BlueWren System

Return: 14%

Winners : 31%
Losers : 69%

Avg Win : 34%
Avg Loss : 10%
 

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