The Elliott Wave debate

[mazzatelli]

LOL nun
We all know your endless requests for live entries/exits by other members is so you can piggyback those trades :

NO free lunch for you!! jk

 

[nunthewiser]

LOL nun
We all know your endless requests for live entries/exits by other members is so you can piggyback those trades :

NO free lunch for you!! jk

LOL bollox

i can make enough mistakes without anybody elses help

 

[nunthewiser]

hang on .............

thinking a bit deeper now as to what you said mazzatelli

would it be a bad thing for them anyways to be honest?

it is not my style to follow anyone in a trade without it being MY trade but if they was "piggybacked " after there posted entrys it would not be detrimental anyways in fact may be found to be advantageous to them seeing as they already on

also first to exit and posted if any silly buggar was following there trades word for word

 

[tech/a]

T/H what exactly do you want to see?
Do you want to see a string of trades with the entry and exits based purely on the wave counts.
Youd have to include fib as they determine likely target areas.

Set the parameters.

T/H you want to do this?
Let me know.

Or is it Oz that you want to see in action? (application of analysis)
Frankly I wouldnt mind seeing how someone else trades Elliott.

 

[Trembling Hand]

Ah, so it's not about whether EW is valid as a principle TH? Hmmm, the impression I have from you and many others in various threads is that it isn't valid.

No No. I have no doubt that most can get a static chart from the past and make it conform to a set of many different principles. Just like someone overlaying an indicator and getting it 100% correct. It happens often here.

So the real question your asking is if it's a valid trading tool? It seems that you haven't looked hard enough, as there's plenty of evidence that it is.

Oh but I have. And that's where my doubts come from. This thread started from wavepicker having to cyberjerk his own "analysis". I cannot see why someone who has the market confirming their greatness with real $$$$'s would need to delude themselves like that

And further,

A look at you last year of being wrong about the XAO with what seems to be endlessly complex yet completely wrong calls is further hints that EWs may be more of a hobby than a real trading tool.

Then I get post from Boggo directing me to blogs that DO NOT show all calls in real time. Only after they have played out. Thats a JOKE.

Now I know Nick (thechartist) uses EW. And actually trades his calls. And I know that Tech incorporates or uses it to guide his real trades but seemingly has better tools for most trades. When EW "works" its because the user happens to have much experience in being a good trader. That is its the traders experience that uses a tool to frame R:R. Not the BS endlessly complex game of EW to try and figure out the market. Like I have been saying for some time TA doesn't work it just confirms biases. And therefore complex analysis is wasted, maybe even counter productive.

Do you find that the more work on figuring out the market with EW helps your trading? Do you trade?

 

[nulla nulla]

Sounds like a "hindsight" theory to me. If it is so reliable, why didn't it predict the comming of the global crisis? If it is so reliable how does hedge fund shorting of "over leveraged" stocks during the sell down slip under their radar?
The reality is, if enough people believe in it, there will be buys or sells at the appropriate point by the believers making it a self fulfilling prophesy. The believers must have become disbelievers, eh!

 

[tech/a]

Sounds like a "hindsight" theory to me. If it is so reliable, why didn't it predict the comming of the global crisis? If it is so reliable how does hedge fund shorting of "over leveraged" stocks during the sell down slip under their radar?
!

It did and its all posted on ASF.

It didn't predict the GFC it just showed that the XJO chart was at a very important high which indicated a strong corrective move.

The reality is, if enough people believe in it, there will be buys or sells at the appropriate point by the believers making it a self fulfilling prophesy. The believers must have become disbelievers, eh

Belief.
Its got nothing to do with belief and everything to do with application.
Few actually understand the method and even those that do many have no idea how to apply it to profitable trading (Which is what T/H is on about).

To many its "Seeming" complexity and ambiguity lures those with a propensity for the complex.
I have witnessed many who simply analyse for the sake of analysis. Attempting to perfect imperfection---which is the beauty and advantage of dynamic analysis.
They would never risk a cent trading. Because it would be exactly that a RISK.

Those that can trade Elliott or any other form of analysis dont RISK a cent.

 

[Bobby]

For those who think EW or Gann will give them an edge ' try it !
Both are a crock of sh*t , just ask any two EW Guru's to come up with the same count

As for Tech supporting it , the guy has depth as a trader anyway , maybe skewing it somehow with his real skills ?

 

[Boggo]

For those who think EW or Gann will give them an edge ' try it !
Both are a crock of sh*t , just ask any two EW Guru's to come up with the same count

As for Tech supporting it , the guy has depth as a trader anyway , maybe skewing it somehow with his real skills ?

Obviously its taken nearly four years to work out that it doesn't work on speccies Bobby, you are correct

This is from Dec 2005 !

Just read the book & it sure has the stimulus factor!

I'll read it again as there is much to take in, the books integrity shines through
as Nick talks you through some of his own trades ( most refreshing to see ).

One question: How will this technique go with spec stocks?

A most interesting read, Well done.

Has your view of Nick's book also changed or have you got one these thingy's that TH has got or is looking for

 

[Kryzz]

Isn't EW just another reason to enter the market? what you do after is what counts, ie trade management, i've seen quite a few trades on the chartist setups based on EW, the ones that do run far outweigh the losers, the residual being profit obviously

 

[Boggo]

Isn't EW just another reason to enter the market? what you do after is what counts, ie trade management, i've seen quite a few trades on the chartist setups based on EW, the ones that do run far outweigh the losers, the residual being profit obviously

That's it in a nutshell shaun, nothing mystical or requiring voodoo dolls or headless chickens.

The thing that takes the time is the ability to glance at a chart and discard it, monitor it or trade it.

In most cases the stop points are easier to see, the entry is usually obvious and if it fails then use the stop, if it runs up above the 100% risk consider creeping the stop up with the aim of getting it to breakeven, from there on you have a free trade (see BHP example below, my stop is now above breakeven ).

Its no different to flags, pennants etc etc except that in most cases is does follow a pattern where a target point is predicted based on a set of rules combined with past pattern and crowd behaviour.

This is from Robert Miner's "Dynamic Trading" ch3-53...

The beauty and significance of R. N. Elliott's work is that he recognized that markets are composed of groups of people that respond as crowd behavior in the same way that other social groups respond to a cycle of events. There is a process that evolves in almost every cycle of crowd behavior that runs its course. This process results in a fairly predictable pattern of behavior of cycles of optimism and pessimism. This process and pattern of behavior is represented on price charts of financial markets, as the price charts are simply reflections of the state of the psychology of the group participating in the market.

(click to expand)

 

[nunthewiser]

another great example of using EW as a trading tool in hindsight ......

 

[nunthewiser]

anyways all biitchin aside


how about some LIVE trades posted using your methods of EW in a live trading situation .NOT after and telling us you did it . i mean as you take the trade or asap after and showing your thoughts on the count ,stops, exits etcetcetce

if its too much work thats fine........i dont post charts as i find it too much hassle so do understand .happy to provide entrys and exits as they happen as usual tho

any of you EW traders up for it ?

im not here to PERSONALLY give you a hard time , i am merely intrested to see its validity as a LIVE trading tool instead of a hindsight trading tool as is all i see here

also i couldnt give a flyin floozie if the calls right or wrong . i KNOW myself no one is accurate 100% of the time . im wrong as much as im right , there will be NO heckling regarding the direction of your calls .

merely intrested to see it live NOT after as usual

 

[Bobby]

Obviously its taken nearly four years to work out that it doesn't work on speccies Bobby, you are correct




Has your view of Nick's book also changed or have you got one these thingy's that TH has got or is looking for

Well Boggo you must be a fan would you like my autograph ? if not can I have yours

As for Nicks book , well now with hind- site its ok just skip the EW .

As for the thingy's , yep I'm now into that , lets call it the Mood Analise's , the sheep will guide you when to enter

Kind wishes .

 

[Boggo]

any of you EW traders up for it ?

Not sure about others but I am not the least bit interested nun I did the books and online courses for me (selfish aren't I).
The charts I post are to display the process to those who might be interested in doing the hard yards, not to tease you.

A few suggestions though, join the chartist and you can actually participate in actual real trades, learn EW and do it yourself or get yourself one these thingamebobs and watch the mula roll in

 

[nunthewiser]

but hindsight trading ideas are ok ...... i understand

ok no worries m8

cheers

 

[Nick Radge]

A lot of irony in this post.

any of you EW traders up for it ?

Firstly, I started a practical Elliott Wave trading thread to do exactly as TH has asked. I was happy to sit there and post the trades ahead of time for as long as it took to prove its validity as a trading tool. However it was shot down in flames before the first setup was even triggered. So I'm kind of wondering why it is you guys want it so badly on the one hand yet won't allow it to occur on the other.

Secondly, TH, I have no idea what started this so called debate and what WP said to get up your goat. However, I will say that Elliott Wave is a set of patterns, some complex, some not, from which to base trades and analysis. Yet it is also you that preaches Dilernia's stuff as useful, yet the irony is that its exactly the same; a set of complex patterns from which to source some reliability and make trades. They are one and the same whether you like it or not so apart from your own bias I'm unsure why you're happy to kicking one on the floor and riding the other? Unfortunately an argument for complexities of one being less than the other doesn't cut it - there is independent proof out there on that so it can be fully qualified.

I agree that EW is nothing more than a crutch from which to base trades and yes, I agree that one needn't go into that kind of depth to qualify a trade. However, its also proven that people do want that kind of analysis (regardless of its usefulness) because those that supply it wouldn't have a business otherwise. I have said this before. If everyone thought EW was a load a crap then they wouldn't have a business, yes EWI is by far one of the largest newsletters in the planet and I know for a fact that they do not recycle new users each and every year like a ponzi scheme. They have tens of thousands who sign up year after year. For these people to sign up they must be getting something - whether they actually need it or not is agreeably debatable.

I have no interest in selling Elliott Wave. Only a small part of The Chartist is Elliott Wave. I post my positions each and every day - currently all 70 of them - from three portfolios none of which are based on EW.

 

[Frank D]

Yet it is also you that preaches Dilernia's stuff as useful, yet
the irony is that its exactly the same; a set of complex patterns from
which to source some reliability and make trades. They are one and the
same whether you like it or not

They are nothing like each other.

Reliable patterns have to be set in stone, so that the levels are
hardcoded, which in turn makes them reliable.

That's the only way you'll test the validity of the pattern, method or system.

A reliable pattern could be anything, as long as it’s hardcoded whether
using a number of indicators to build a systematic system or a
discretionary method.

A reliable pattern then becomes a 'set-up', which then is trade
managed thereafter, and more robust when optimized to a reliable Trend.

Reliable patterns in turn will produce reliable results (probability).

I’m yet to see a reliable patterns in EW, other than subjective patterns
base on a number curve fitted wave counts.

Only god knows how you test the validity of EW.

They have tens of thousands who sign up year after year. For these people to sign up they must be getting something

I hope so, but marketing is a wonderful tool

 

[tech/a]

Only god knows how you test the validity of EW.

The same way you check yours!

 

[Trembling Hand]

TH, I have no idea what started this so called debate and what WP said to get up your goat.

Well the so called debate actually didn't start with me. I was just the sucker that happened to be on top of the list of post pulled out from the XAO thread into this one when we were all laughing our ar$es off at WavePicker finally getting booted out for creating about 8 different personalities praising his own work.

However, I will say that Elliott Wave is a set of patterns, some complex, some not, from which to base trades and analysis. Yet it is also you that preaches Dilernia's stuff as useful, yet the irony is that its exactly the same; a set of complex patterns from which to source some reliability and make trades. They are one and the same whether you like it or not so apart from your own bias I'm unsure why you're happy to kicking one on the floor and riding the other? Unfortunately an argument for complexities of one being less than the other doesn't cut it - there is independent proof out there on that so it can be fully qualified.

Not true. I happily preach Franks work and yours because they seem to have the basis of good trading in them. Frame works for right- keep riding, wrong - get out and try again. With Franks stuff I like it because its unique and I find work thats grow from current observations valid. His work also has some of the same observation that I have come to see independently before I even knew his methods(which by the way I actually don't know much of), the stuff about S/R moving forward as time does, rotation back from 5 day moves and the complete lack of Overbought/Oversold crap etc.

I have no interest in selling Elliott Wave. Only a small part of The Chartist is Elliott Wave. I post my positions each and every day - currently all 70 of them - from three portfolios none of which are based on EW.

See that's the interesting bit for me and really the crux of my point (if I have one). That's where my curiosity/scepticism comes from about EW being the ducks guts. And there are many that think it is here. I reckon I could trade for a while based on just a bar chart with signals only from a RSI. But I don't. Because its too restrictive. When you are restricted to the rules you are forced to use them.