The Abbott Government

[drsmith]

I never thought the day would come but today I find myself agreeing with a comment from David Marr. On the ABC's Insiders program today he commented that the base of the GST should be broadened.

I also remain of the view that negative gearing, super tax concessions and capital gains tax should be reformed and it's disappointing that the current government seems to be crab walking from this ahead of its tax white paper.

What worries me with Labor though when it talks about any of the above is that it looks at it in the sense of increasing the tax base rather than broader tax reform.

 

[sydboy007]

I never thought the day would come but today I find myself agreeing with a comment from David Marr. On the ABC's Insiders program today he commented that the base of the GST should be broadened.

I also remain of the view that negative gearing, super tax concessions and capital gains tax should be reformed and it's disappointing that the current government seems to be crab walking from this ahead of its tax white paper.

What worries me with Labor though when it talks about any of the above is that it looks at it in the sense of increasing the tax base rather than broader tax reform.

Problem is they're boxed into their respective corners. Abbot has moved from everything on the table to focusing on politics when saying no to changes with super and NG.

Both parties are too scared to actually proffer some meaningful reforms. Labor wont support the Govts reasonable changes to the pension by getting rid of the reduce taper rates from Howard. The Liberals wont support Labors reasonable reform to tax free super pensions that will help a bit with the massive drain on the budget. They cut off their noses to spite their faces. Abbott probablly regreat blocking some of Labors revenue raising proposals when in opposition. Shorten needs to think that some of the revenue measures from Abbott will come in handy for when Labor is voted back in. 3 months seems to be long term thinking these days.

There is no leadership, and I don't believe anyone in either the Govt or Opposition has the ability to sell major reforms to voters. We definitely need it, because without major structural reforms the only way we regain our competitiveness within the tradeables sector is via a long stagnation in incomes. That is not the smart way forward, but seems the most likely outcome.

 

[drsmith]

Problem is they're boxed into their respective corners. Abbot has moved from everything on the table to focusing on politics when saying no to changes with super and NG.

Both parties are too scared to actually proffer some meaningful reforms. Labor wont support the Govts reasonable changes to the pension by getting rid of the reduce taper rates from Howard. The Liberals wont support Labors reasonable reform to tax free super pensions that will help a bit with the massive drain on the budget. They cut off their noses to spite their faces. Abbott probablly regreat blocking some of Labors revenue raising proposals when in opposition. Shorten needs to think that some of the revenue measures from Abbott will come in handy for when Labor is voted back in. 3 months seems to be long term thinking these days.

There is no leadership, and I don't believe anyone in either the Govt or Opposition has the ability to sell major reforms to voters. We definitely need it, because without major structural reforms the only way we regain our competitiveness within the tradeables sector is via a long stagnation in incomes. That is not the smart way forward, but seems the most likely outcome.

I agree in general with the politics of the above but in relation to the highlighted point above, it's not only about the revenue.

For example, a broadening of the GST base should go towards eliminating nuisance taxes. Changes to negative gearing, the CGT discount and super concessions should go towards reducing marginal tax rates and providing capital gains protection for the CPI component of growth and eliminating property transaction taxes such as stamp duty.

Where's Bill Shorten an Labor on that ?

Unfortunately, neither side of politics presently has the balls or political capital to tackle genuine tax/transfer reform.

 

[sydboy007]

I agree in general with the politics of the above but in relation to the highlighted point above, it's not only about the revenue.

For example, a broadening of the GST base should go towards eliminating nuisance taxes. Changes to negative gearing, the CGT discount and super concessions should go towards reducing marginal tax rates and providing capital gains protection for the CPI component of growth and eliminating property transaction taxes such as stamp duty.

Where's Bill Shorten an Labor on that ?

Unfortunately, neither side of politics presently has the balls or political capital to tackle genuine tax/transfer reform.

NG is up for discussion at the next Labor conference. That's a long way further to reform than Abbott's NO. I fear Abbott is transitioning back to an opposition mentality.

Super taxes are at least being looked at by Labor. Abbott has boxed himself into no reform ever. Only way for that to change is to remove him from the Liberal leadership.

As to broadening the GST. I'd prefer other reform long before it. I don't trust the Govt and community to ensure the regressiveness is not borne by the poor over the long term. Better to bring in a broadly based land tax to help fund the states. They can do it themselves. No need to wait for Canberra to get its act together.

CGT and NG reform would be preferable too. Change super tax from flat rate to a % reduction in marginal rates. Ross Garnaut has proposed a 15% reduction, meaning those on lower incomes would pay minimal to no super taxes, a far cry from pay more or around their current marginal rates.

Does the Govt really need to be wasting it's time on trying to strip citizenship from people when we have the very grim prospect of recession in 12-18 months?

 

[noco]

Problem is they're boxed into their respective corners. Abbot has moved from everything on the table to focusing on politics when saying no to changes with super and NG.

Both parties are too scared to actually proffer some meaningful reforms. Labor wont support the Govts reasonable changes to the pension by getting rid of the reduce taper rates from Howard. The Liberals wont support Labors reasonable reform to tax free super pensions that will help a bit with the massive drain on the budget. They cut off their noses to spite their faces. Abbott probablly regreat blocking some of Labors revenue raising proposals when in opposition. Shorten needs to think that some of the revenue measures from Abbott will come in handy for when Labor is voted back in. 3 months seems to be long term thinking these days.

There is no leadership, and I don't believe anyone in either the Govt or Opposition has the ability to sell major reforms to voters. We definitely need it, because without major structural reforms the only way we regain our competitiveness within the tradeables sector is via a long stagnation in incomes. That is not the smart way forward, but seems the most likely outcome.

From what I decipher of Abbott when in opposition, he tried to curtail the Green/Labor socialist party from over spending whereas Shorten has gone out of his way to stop Abbott saving.....Shorten does not want Abbott to succeed in getting the budget back into surplus.....Shorten is pure and simply political and it is starting to back fire on him.

Watch the coming polls.

 

[noco]

NG is up for discussion at the next Labor conference. That's a long way further to reform than Abbott's NO. I fear Abbott is transitioning back to an opposition mentality.

Super taxes are at least being looked at by Labor. Abbott has boxed himself into no reform ever. Only way for that to change is to remove him from the Liberal leadership.

As to broadening the GST. I'd prefer other reform long before it. I don't trust the Govt and community to ensure the regressiveness is not borne by the poor over the long term. Better to bring in a broadly based land tax to help fund the states. They can do it themselves. No need to wait for Canberra to get its act together.

CGT and NG reform would be preferable too. Change super tax from flat rate to a % reduction in marginal rates. Ross Garnaut has proposed a 15% reduction, meaning those on lower incomes would pay minimal to no super taxes, a far cry from pay more or around their current marginal rates.

Does the Govt really need to be wasting it's time on trying to strip citizenship from people when we have the very grim prospect of recession in 12-18 months?

Abbott should bring back the CARBON DIOXIDE tax , the mining tax, open the borders so we have more people on the social security and more houses to build for the immigrants, higher land tax, death duties, hit the rich who have big superannuation, cut out negative gearing, increase the GST to 15% on everything. ...What did I miss that Labor would do?

Problem solved and with full support from the Green/Labor socialist party and the crazy senate and then everybody is happy....I don't think so.....What about the less well off?

Politics has gone crazy......It is about time both sides got together with bi-partition support in the national interest and stop these childish games that are going on in the name of popularity.

What do you think Sydboy?

 

[SirRumpole]

As to broadening the GST. I'd prefer other reform long before it. I don't trust the Govt and community to ensure the regressiveness is not borne by the poor over the long term. Better to bring in a broadly based land tax to help fund the states. They can do it themselves. No need to wait for Canberra to get its act together.

I don't know about land tax, but they should definitely fix up corporate tax avoidance, negative gearing and super tax concessions for the rich before introducing or widening any tax that hits lower income earners who don't have the means to avoid tax that the better off have.

It's been pointed out before that super tax concessions cost more than the pension. Tax super contributions at 80% of the taxpayers highest marginal rate. That still provides an incentive to invest in super, but increases government revenue and reduces the deficit.

 

[sydboy007]

One has to wonder what Hockey was up to when framing the budget forecasts on CAPEX by business

Here's his forecast from a 2 week old budget



Note that total business investment is projected to fall -7% over 2015/16 and -3.5% over 2016/17.

A week after the budget is released we get the ABS CAPEX outlook which has CAPEX in at -18% for the optimists or -24% for the realists (depending upon what realisation ratio you choose) for 2015/16 alone. 2016/17 starts to look dire, especially when you factor in the Govt is forecasting further CAPEX growth when the car industry is closing down, likely taking most of the component manufacturers with them.

There's a $30B gap between the budget and ABS forecast. Is there no communication within the Government and departments? Did Hockey choose to ignore what business were telling the ABS?

Hockey was very critical of Labor's forecasting, but so far his efforts have been as bad, and starting to look downright dart thrown at a number on the wall.

 

[Tisme]

One has to wonder what Hockey was up to when framing the budget forecasts on CAPEX by business

Here's his forecast from a 2 week old budget

View attachment 62814

Note that total business investment is projected to fall -7% over 2015/16 and -3.5% over 2016/17.

A week after the budget is released we get the ABS CAPEX outlook which has CAPEX in at -18% for the optimists or -24% for the realists (depending upon what realisation ratio you choose) for 2015/16 alone. 2016/17 starts to look dire, especially when you factor in the Govt is forecasting further CAPEX growth when the car industry is closing down, likely taking most of the component manufacturers with them.

There's a $30B gap between the budget and ABS forecast. Is there no communication within the Government and departments? Did Hockey choose to ignore what business were telling the ABS?

Hockey was very critical of Labor's forecasting, but so far his efforts have been as bad, and starting to look downright dart thrown at a number on the wall.

I think that table is optimistic.

 

[sptrawler]

One has to wonder what Hockey was up to when framing the budget forecasts on CAPEX by business

Here's his forecast from a 2 week old budget

View attachment 62814

Note that total business investment is projected to fall -7% over 2015/16 and -3.5% over 2016/17.

A week after the budget is released we get the ABS CAPEX outlook which has CAPEX in at -18% for the optimists or -24% for the realists (depending upon what realisation ratio you choose) for 2015/16 alone. 2016/17 starts to look dire, especially when you factor in the Govt is forecasting further CAPEX growth when the car industry is closing down, likely taking most of the component manufacturers with them.

There's a $30B gap between the budget and ABS forecast. Is there no communication within the Government and departments? Did Hockey choose to ignore what business were telling the ABS?

Hockey was very critical of Labor's forecasting, but so far his efforts have been as bad, and starting to look downright dart thrown at a number on the wall.

Syd can you tell me what the resource revenue was when Labor were in, as opposed to what it is now.

From memory, a lot of your excuses for Labors dismal performance, was plunging revenue.

Love to know how they would be going now.

 

[banco]

Julie Bishop's still leaking like a sieve to Fairfax.

 

[sptrawler]

Julie Bishop's still leaking like a sieve to Fairfax.

IMO Fairfax have nothing good to say about the economy, or Australia in general, it is just make up your own news journalism.

 

[banco]

IMO Fairfax have nothing good to say about the economy, or Australia in general, it is just make up your own news journalism.

They get the cabinet leaks and the RBA leaks ahead of time.

 

[sptrawler]

They get the cabinet leaks and the RBA leaks ahead of time.

The biggest issue IMO, is China picking up our mining companies for a song, when they have sent them broke.

Why isn't the media all over that? Why should China, who dictate the price of iron ore, be able to buy our miners?

What happens when they own enough of our mines, that they basically give it to themselves for free.

We get nothing.lol

Maybe Shorten, Fairfax and the ABC can get onto that, rather than marriage issues.

http://www.smh.com.au/business/mini...ling-australian-iron-ore-20150601-ghe50r.html

 

[sydboy007]

Syd can you tell me what the resource revenue was when Labor were in, as opposed to what it is now.

From memory, a lot of your excuses for Labors dismal performance, was plunging revenue.

Love to know how they would be going now.

You missed the point I was making SP.

The fact that 1 week after the budget is realesed the ABS shows CAPEX intentions by business is up to $30B lower than budget forecasts, and that's only for the 2015/16 budget year. The blowout a year later is heading to double that. If Swan has released similarly dodgy figures what would your reaction be?

Did Hockey massage the budget figures, or is he so isolated he had no idea of what the ABS was being told? All the assumptions on the budget are now toast. Lower CAPEX means higher unemployment, lower corporate and income taxes. The states will see lower GST income. Hockey was scathing of Labor's forecasting ability, but he's beat them by having his figures shown to be wrong within 1 week of release.

The budget is fanciful, and stops the Govt from being forced to start dealing with the issues fast approaching.

The falling ToT and cut to Govt revenue never seemed to be relevant on this forum when Labor was in office, so why is it relevant now?

Maybe Bubbles Abbott and Hockey are right. Housing price growth will save us.

A trip back down memory lane for some Tony Bubbles quotes:

“What’s it called? Mortgage stress? The advent of the Rudd Government has caused serious mortgage stress for a section of the Australian community, i.e. former Howard government ministers!” he said at the time.

“You don’t just lose power … you certainly lose income as well, and if you are reliant on your parliamentary salary for your daily living, obviously it makes a big difference.”

When Kevin Rudd announced a salary freeze for all politicians in early 2008 – a decision greeted with bipartisan loathing around the corridors – Mr Abbott remarked that it was “all very well for politicians who have other sources of income or who have very high income from their spouses”.

Could explain his grim determination to hold onto the PM salary for as long as he can.

 

[noco]

You missed the point I was making SP.

The fact that 1 week after the budget is realesed the ABS shows CAPEX intentions by business is up to $30B lower than budget forecasts, and that's only for the 2015/16 budget year. The blowout a year later is heading to double that. If Swan has released similarly dodgy figures what would your reaction be?

Did Hockey massage the budget figures, or is he so isolated he had no idea of what the ABS was being told? All the assumptions on the budget are now toast. Lower CAPEX means higher unemployment, lower corporate and income taxes. The states will see lower GST income. Hockey was scathing of Labor's forecasting ability, but he's beat them by having his figures shown to be wrong within 1 week of release.

The budget is fanciful, and stops the Govt from being forced to start dealing with the issues fast approaching.

The falling ToT and cut to Govt revenue never seemed to be relevant on this forum when Labor was in office, so why is it relevant now?

Maybe Bubbles Abbott and Hockey are right. Housing price growth will save us.

A trip back down memory lane for some Tony Bubbles quotes:







Could explain his grim determination to hold onto the PM salary for as long as he can.

Abbott must be doing something right having overhauled Bill Shorten as preferred Prime Minister and a substantial gain in the primary vote.

The Greens must be Labor's biggest worry these days, but there again Labor cannot do without their comrades preferences.....What do you think Sydboy?


http://www.theaustralian.com.au/opi...-almost-repaired/story-fnmnl1y0-1227378811657

 

[sydboy007]

Abbott must be doing something right having overhauled Bill Shorten as preferred Prime Minister and a substantial gain in the primary vote.

The Greens must be Labor's biggest worry these days, but there again Labor cannot do without their comrades preferences.....What do you think Sydboy?


http://www.theaustralian.com.au/opi...-almost-repaired/story-fnmnl1y0-1227378811657

You've highlighted the problem Noco. Abbott is too much worried about the polls, because his party is too worried about the polls, so they're incapable of making any decent policy because they fear what it will do to the polls.

A tax whitepaper with everything on the table, but then announcement after announcement about what is now off the table. Abbott is showing weather vane politics. Sinodinous has even admitted that Abbott made a captains call based purely on politics for his never ever changes to super.

Why are poor people targeted for major cuts to income, when NG and CGT is left on the table? over 70% of CGT concessions go to the top 10%. Explain to me how that is fair. Combined with the near limitless ability to use IP losses to reduces income tax the over investment in unproductive housing is plain to see. Over 90% of investors buy an existing property. So how can the Govt argue it's helping to keep rents lower? It doesn't increase the available housing stock by much.

I think this will be the year when voters get sick of hearing the Abbot Govt saying it's Labor's fault. They need to start owning the effects of their policy decisions.

 

[noco]

You've highlighted the problem Noco. Abbott is too much worried about the polls, because his party is too worried about the polls, so they're incapable of making any decent policy because they fear what it will do to the polls.

A tax whitepaper with everything on the table, but then announcement after announcement about what is now off the table. Abbott is showing weather vane politics. Sinodinous has even admitted that Abbott made a captains call based purely on politics for his never ever changes to super.

Why are poor people targeted for major cuts to income, when NG and CGT is left on the table? over 70% of CGT concessions go to the top 10%. Explain to me how that is fair. Combined with the near limitless ability to use IP losses to reduces income tax the over investment in unproductive housing is plain to see. Over 90% of investors buy an existing property. So how can the Govt argue it's helping to keep rents lower? It doesn't increase the available housing stock by much.

I think this will be the year when voters get sick of hearing the Abbot Govt saying it's Labor's fault. They need to start owning the effects of their policy decisions.

And of course Bill Shorten does not look for the populous vote....No no,no he would not dream of it.

The blame will be on Labor for a decade with the debt and deficit they left behind after 2013....But obviously, you expect the Liberals to clean up Labor's mess in 18 months.

Anyway I thought this year was Labor's year of new ideas as to how they would fix the mess they left behind.

Been very quiet so far except hit the super to raise about $1.5 billion over 4 years...A mere drop in the bucket

Where are their ideas for the sake of the national interest....All Labor has done so far is obstruct and repair the Liberals put forward even some $6 billion of their own savings which they have rejected in the senate.

What do you say about sydboy?

 

[sydboy007]

And of course Bill Shorten does not look for the populous vote....No no,no he would not dream of it.

The blame will be on Labor for a decade with the debt and deficit they left behind after 2013....But obviously, you expect the Liberals to clean up Labor's mess in 18 months.

Anyway I thought this year was Labor's year of new ideas as to how they would fix the mess they left behind.

Been very quiet so far except hit the super to raise about $1.5 billion over 4 years...A mere drop in the bucket

Where are their ideas for the sake of the national interest....All Labor has done so far is obstruct and repair the Liberals put forward even some $6 billion of their own savings which they have rejected in the senate.

What do you say about sydboy?

They're going to discuss NG at the Labor conference in July. That's a far site better than what Abbott is proposing. Still over a year till the election for Labor to release some decent policy. Hopefully they do because we've got nothing of substance comming from Abbott. It's all about the status quo really. Any time something that could spook the older boomer and grey vote is proposed, Abbott is first out to say no.

So what do you think of Hockey's inability to forecast CAPEX. 1 week after he releases his budget forecasts the ABS blows them out of the water. How does a treasurer get his forecast up to $30B wrong in just 1 week? Does he sit in his office making up the figures? Does he talk to the ABS to get an idea of what business are saying they're investment plans are? Seems like the former rather than later.

When the budget is closer to $50B than the fanciful $35B forecast, how will that affect you perception of the Liberals economic credentials, or will you still find yet another way to lay the blame on labor?

 

[sydboy007]

The Abbott Govt has a strange take on democracy

Don't we have a right to know what our political leaders are signing us up for???

http://www.theguardian.com/business...ade-deal-text-on-condition-of-confidentiality

MPs and senators were briefed on the deal Monday night by the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade assistant secretary Elizabeth Ward and other officials.

The MPs were told that, despite the negotiations being “in the final stages” and “at the end game”, key provisions had not been agreed – including intellectual property clauses of deep concern to the Australian government and controversial legal avenues for corporations to take action against governments – so-called investor state dispute settlements (ISDS). They were also told the ISDS process itself was still being negotiated, including provisions on transparency.

They were told they could view the current TPP negotiating text on Tuesday “subject to certain confidentiality requirements” and were shown a document they would be required to sign before any viewing…

Confidentially document can be seen here - http://static.guim.co.uk/ni/1433217576506/Trans-Pacific-Partnership-a.pdf

4 year gag order. Very patriotic of the Govt.