The Abbott Government

[sydboy007]

Well as I've said for a long time, Barnett has been saying, what Syd is saying.

The resources belong to us and we own them, it is just unfortunate Barnett is LNP.

This automatically causes a spray from loonie left and Fairfax.

From the Westralian

The State Government says it has started the formal process of acquiring land for the Anketell Port project in the Pilbara despite the depressed iron ore market.

Premier and State Development Minister Colin Barnett and Lands Minister Terry Redman said the land acquisition was vital to the development of the port about 30 kilometres east of Karratha, which they said was potentially the last major port to be built in the Pilbara.

“Last year, the Government signed a $20 million native title agreement with the Ngarluma people over 4300 hectares of land covering the planned Anketell site,” Mr Barnett said.

So on the one hand BHP and RIO are naughty for flooding the market with high quality cheap to produce I/O.

On the other hand Barnett is off spending tax payer money to help increase the supply of low quality high cost I/O onto the market.

What is the logic of spending scarce $$$ on infrastructure that's not required, at least for a few decades?

Obviously the $500M GST refund from the Feds has gave Barnett a bit of cash to flash.

 

[Macquack]

You really sometimes, need to sit back and take a breath, try to be objective.

So much ability, wasted on so focused a hate, distorts reality. IMO

I hate to say this, but, sptrawler you are a pretty clued up guy with many good ideas.

Having said that, take a look in the mirror and give Sdyboy a break.

 

[Tisme]

If anyone is using Port Hedland an it's environs as a litmus test of what's to come, as of last week about 17 substantial companies had gone to the wall, the previously wealthy are the new poor, abandoned buildings stand half finished, people are migrating to Karratha and the only thing missing is spinifex balls sweeping through the streets.

Many long standing agreements for supply have been torn up by the majors and new ones being negotiated that are not favourable to maintaining the infrastructure and labour resources previously req'd.

Of course companies like Qantas who make lotsa money from the fly in fly outs are in for some turbulence as a consequence.

Things are going gangbusters with some parts of the economy under Abbott's watch.

 

[sptrawler]

From the Westralian



So on the one hand BHP and RIO are naughty for flooding the market with high quality cheap to produce I/O.

On the other hand Barnett is off spending tax payer money to help increase the supply of low quality high cost I/O onto the market.

What is the logic of spending scarce $$$ on infrastructure that's not required, at least for a few decades?

Obviously the $500M GST refund from the Feds has gave Barnett a bit of cash to flash.

You know and I know, it takes years to install infrastructure, like the Port you mention.

Yet the price of iron ore can swing within months, to stop and start infrastructure being installed , because of price swings can't be done. Well that is unless you are Victorian.

The fact the World will need more of the ore is fact, the requirement for another port isn't diminishing, the price will recover as is always the case for a finite resource.

Barnett was blasted, by the media for threatening BHP and Rio, it has become obvious that it makes no difference to peoples perception of him.

Obviously people can't rise above party bias, when formulating opinions.

On an Abbott Government note, I read Hockey claims living away from home, while living in a house his wife owns.

Now that, IMO, is a rort.

 

[SirRumpole]

On an Abbott Government note, I read Hockey claims living away from home, while living in a house his wife owns.

Now that, IMO, is a rort.

Absolutely correct, it is a rort.

I'm sure he's not the only one, but such allowances should be a recoup of actual expenses (capped), paid to people who are in the business of supplying accommodation where the applicant incurs those expenses performing official duties.

And Hockey has the gall to talk about "entitlement".

 

[trainspotter]

Ironic that small businesses are now putting on a solar panel system under 20k and claiming the tax break in the Fed Govt budget.

 

[trainspotter]

If anyone is using Port Hedland an it's environs as a litmus test of what's to come, as of last week about 17 substantial companies had gone to the wall, the previously wealthy are the new poor, abandoned buildings stand half finished, people are migrating to Karratha and the only thing missing is spinifex balls sweeping through the streets.

Many long standing agreements for supply have been torn up by the majors and new ones being negotiated that are not favourable to maintaining the infrastructure and labour resources previously req'd.

Of course companies like Qantas who make lotsa money from the fly in fly outs are in for some turbulence as a consequence.

Things are going gangbusters with some parts of the economy under Abbott's watch.

Port Hedland and Karratha are bloated cess pits of cronyism, graft and corruption. Port Hedland is a dump. They had to put the sh1te from Noahs Ark somewhere and Karratha is not much better.

Addressing the media, Mr McGowan attacked the government for buying 50 units in the 174-apartment Pelago East tower for $30 million in 2012 ”” and now not being able to sell many of them.

The government has struggled to sell 28 of the units since putting them on the market 10 months ago, and is now offering them under shared equity, a scheme usually aimed at struggling first-home buyers.

http://www.perthnow.com.au/news/wes...-property-market/story-fnhocxo3-1227060534295

Barnett government and NOT Abbott government. Libs yes but not of the same genetic pool.

I spent many a month in BOTH towns and nothing would surprise me as to what goes on. Rampant waste under the guise of "safety" and "mining". 10 people to do a 2 man job cause the union dictates it.

$1600 per hour to hire crane and dogger. Minimum 10 hours plus "mobilisation" fees for a 1 hour job to lift a beam. Not part of reality in any way shape or form. Stop work to have a "stop work" meeting right at the crucial time that the crane turns up, then it's off to lunch and then to a safety meeting then its "See you tomorrow"

Yeah ... love Port Hedland and Karratha.

 

[sydboy007]

You know and I know, it takes years to install infrastructure, like the Port you mention.

Yet the price of iron ore can swing within months, to stop and start infrastructure being installed , because of price swings can't be done. Well that is unless you are Victorian.

The fact the World will need more of the ore is fact, the requirement for another port isn't diminishing, the price will recover as is always the case for a finite resource.

Barnett was blasted, by the media for threatening BHP and Rio, it has become obvious that it makes no difference to peoples perception of him.

Obviously people can't rise above party bias, when formulating opinions.

On an Abbott Government note, I read Hockey claims living away from home, while living in a house his wife owns.

Now that, IMO, is a rort.

China’s scrap ratio is currently only around 10%, compared with around 60% in the rest of the world. However, the availability of scrap in China is increasing rapidly, as the material used during the rapid growth in consumption of machinery, autos and appliances in early 2000s, is converted to scrap. Moreover, the government is encouraging setting up of collection centers, and though the government cancelled tax exemption for steel scrap recycling in 2011, we expect supportive policies in the future.

The Citi outlook is bearish enough but take a moment to consider if the forecasts of Professor Ross Garnaut and Chinese steel researchers are met. They see 700mt tonnes in total steel production output by 2030. If 300mt tonnes of that comes from scrap and China preserves 200mt of iron ore mining capacity (equal to 130mt of steel) then total import demand for iron ore will be…wait for it…around 270mt. That is, roughly 28% of last year.

So as i said before, the new port is unlikely to be required fro decades. India has plenty of its on I/O and there's no other markets capable of absorbing the excess production.

So no, I'm not bashing Barnett because he's Liberal, I'm bashing him because he's wasting scarce $$ that could be devoted to building infrastructure that improves the productivity of WA over the long term, infrastructure that self liquidates so it doesn't end up being a long term burden to the economy and tax payers.

 

[sptrawler]

View attachment 62735



The Citi outlook is bearish enough but take a moment to consider if the forecasts of Professor Ross Garnaut and Chinese steel researchers are met. They see 700mt tonnes in total steel production output by 2030. If 300mt tonnes of that comes from scrap and China preserves 200mt of iron ore mining capacity (equal to 130mt of steel) then total import demand for iron ore will be…wait for it…around 270mt. That is, roughly 28% of last year.

So as i said before, the new port is unlikely to be required fro decades. India has plenty of its on I/O and there's no other markets capable of absorbing the excess production.

So no, I'm not bashing Barnett because he's Liberal, I'm bashing him because he's wasting scarce $$ that could be devoted to building infrastructure that improves the productivity of WA over the long term, infrastructure that self liquidates so it doesn't end up being a long term burden to the economy and tax payers.

As per usual good points Syd, also well researched.

I tend to think as per usual, self interest by some of these so called forecaster, tend to paint the picture that suits their agenda.
With Asia becoming an industrialised Continent, the long term consumption of raw materials will be much greater than we have currently seen.IMO
There are billions of people up there that want to live like us, and they are taking our tertiary manufacturing base to support it.
The real issue for us is being able to supply that demand

The port facility at Port Headland is a hopeless bottleneck, and will need to be rationalised anyway, irrespective of existing capacity.
Also there is an obvious push, to develop a de-centralised population hub in the N.W of W.A, be this for minerals, future agriculture or a combination of both.
There is one thing for sure, it is better to build infrastructure to support industry, than to stall infrastructure to increase welfare due to unemployment. Just my opinion.

 

[sptrawler]

I hate to say this, but, sptrawler you are a pretty clued up guy with many good ideas.

Having said that, take a look in the mirror and give Sdyboy a break.

Funny you should say that, Syd is one of the main reasons I am active on this forum.

It is smart young blokes like him, that are our future.
I debate him, on the off chance, my age and experiences can shine a different light on his perspective.

I was a young headstrong idealist in my 20's and 30's, age and experience has shown me, nothing is black and white. Especially regarding politics.

It is young blokes like Syd, that give me hope that Australia, has a bright future.

Anyway enough of the waxing on, back to bashing you loonie leftie's.lol

 

[sydboy007]

As per usual good points Syd, also well researched.

I tend to think as per usual, self interest by some of these so called forecaster, tend to paint the picture that suits their agenda.
With Asia becoming an industrialised Continent, the long term consumption of raw materials will be much greater than we have currently seen.IMO
There are billions of people up there that want to live like us, and they are taking our tertiary manufacturing base to support it.
The real issue for us is being able to supply that demand

The port facility at Port Headland is a hopeless bottleneck, and will need to be rationalised anyway, irrespective of existing capacity.
Also there is an obvious push, to develop a de-centralised population hub in the N.W of W.A, be this for minerals, future agriculture or a combination of both.
There is one thing for sure, it is better to build infrastructure to support industry, than to stall infrastructure to increase welfare due to unemployment. Just my opinion.

You are confusing seperate markets for I/O

Much of Asia has adequate domestic supplies. Certainly India has, plenty of which is yet to be developed. Outside of India the populations of the rest of Asia are relatively insignificant when compared to the massive demand China introduced. The growth just isn't there.

Supply growth is another matter. With the Chinese getting Chummy with Vale, it's quite likely the S11D expansion will hit the market in 2018. They have a vested interest in taking a fair amount of tonnage from them, now that Vale is selling their valemax ships to Chinese shipping firms. The valemax ships have pretty much reduced the competitive advantage Australia had from being closer to China. Vale I/O is also a few % higher grade than from Australia, another competitive advantage for them. Factor in the AUD taking off against the BRL and well the future of seaborne I/O shipped from Australia aint so crash hot, even with a decent devaluation over the next 12 months.



I'm glad you're confident that I/O shipments will continue to increase from WA, but I don't see it being a long term thing. I'm also pretty confident that Barnett could be spending the infrastructure $$$ on other projects that would have a greater economic return for Westralians.

 

[sptrawler]

View attachment 62735

.

If you look at the graph, historical growth in scap usage is fairly linear, for the purpose of the argument the future growth is exponential.

If this was to be believed, you would be loading up on Sims shares, they would be a gold mine.

So if you think the accuracy of the article is sound, are you piling into Sims Metal?

 

[orr]

Ye olde adage that Australia is 15 t0 20yrs behind the US rings so true the ...gobsmacking ineptitude of Abbott is a resounding echo of G WBush.
This may seem like code to many hear. My youngest is in the later years of primary school, I work with him with an open source programmable platform know as 'Arduino' . To listen to the cretinous dolt we have as a PM flounder around what is being taught and its importance to the future of this country is indicative of the shallowness of this tragic figure.
As we speak the world is being shaped by those that code.

http://www.canberratimes.com.au/nat...y-in-school-coding-gaffe-20150528-ghbdal.html

SGM have a habit of 20%+ drops for what seem mercurial reasons, I'd look closer again at around $9.

 

[sydboy007]

If you look at the graph, historical growth in scap usage is fairly linear, for the purpose of the argument the future growth is exponential.

If this was to be believed, you would be loading up on Sims shares, they would be a gold mine.

So if you think the accuracy of the article is sound, are you piling into Sims Metal?

When a country goes from a low 10% scrap usage to a world average of 60% you tend to have exponential growth during that catch up phase.

I doubt sims metals is in China in a big way, but possibly investing in the Chinese equivalents could be a good ground floor opportunity.

 

[sptrawler]

When a country goes from a low 10% scrap usage to a world average of 60% you tend to have exponential growth during that catch up phase.

I doubt sims metals is in China in a big way, but possibly investing in the Chinese equivalents could be a good ground floor opportunity.

We are getting off topic however, I'm just trying to show, that because analysts forecast something doesn't in itself make a fact.

From SIMS homepage:

Sims Metal Management is the world’s largest listed metals and electronics recycler. We are global leaders in the secure and sustainable management of resources for industry, organisations and the public-at-large. Today, Sims Metal Management has over 250 locations on five continents, and more than 6,000 employees. In addition to its industry-leading metal recycling business, Sims Metal Management also operates the world’s largest electrical and electronics recovery and recycling business, Sims Recycling Solutions, as well as Sims Municipal Recycling, which handles curbside materials. - See more at: http://www.simsmm.com/#sthash.xjwsYlq2.dpuf

Therefore if Citi believed what they projected, they would be bullish on SIMS. They are the same price they were ten years ago.

That is why I struggle to give a lot of credibility to analysts, telling me what is going to happen.

If they knew what was going to happen, they would already be retired, rich on the profits from their analysis.

 

[Tisme]

. To listen to the cretinous dolt we have as a PM flounder around what is being taught and its importance to the future of this country is indicative of the shallowness of this tragic figure.
As we speak the world is being shaped by those that code.


http://www.canberratimes.com.au/nat...y-in-school-coding-gaffe-20150528-ghbdal.html

.

Yes. One of my own was teaching visual basic to year 8s, robotics to year 10's, etc as well as E Commerce to year 10's onwards, six years ago. The Newman Govt put the kybosh on that nonsense, because it was obviously Labor mismanagement.

My guess is that there some who are intimidated by stuff they refuse to embrace. It beggars belief that he (Abbott) still doesn't understand the internet after quarter of a century and the importance of NBN as it was conceived. Perhaps he is concerned coding in primary school will lead to tech savvy children and parents who will start asking why we have been denied fibre to premises and potentially denied world class education because of unaffordable university fees.

 

[sydboy007]

the future ain't looking pretty

Outlook: 15/16 downgraded from already bleak to now recessionary -18% y/y

But, this data is so bad it would worry the RBA, and now raises the risk they cut rates again ahead (but probably not until after Q2 CPI). Indeed, a recessionary capex outlook is a downside risk to our already well below consensus GDP forecast of 2.2% y/y in in 2015 and 2.8% in 2016.

Understatement of the year - Hockey said the data was "disappointing"

Somehow Hockey thinks the $20K small business instant asset write off is going to keep us afloat. How long before they're forced to redo the budget forecasts to something resembling reality? No way non mining investment is going to grow at 4.5% and 7% over the next 2 fiscal years.

MYEFO - $45B deficit. Final result closer to $50B and AAA rating looking vulnerable as bank bad debts start to rise from WA property losses slowly marching eastward and south from QLD. Pretending things are on the up and up just makes solving the problems we're facing that much harder.

If you're still in TDs time to move your money to decent quality corporate bonds before the next round of rates cuts kicks in.

 

[trainspotter]

Who's debt is it?

When Labor's Paul Keating lost the federal election to the Liberal Party's John Howard in 1996, about $110 billion of Commonwealth debt had been issued as part of the Labor government's policy program to lift the country out of recession.

At that time, Commonwealth securities represented nearly 21 per cent of the country's gross domestic product. In the 2013 financial year it was 17 per cent.

By the time Mr Howard was voted out of office more than a decade later, the Coalition had returned the budget to surplus and lowered the ratio of CGS to GDP to 5.4 per cent.

"As a result of 10 years of strong economic management, net debt was eliminated in April 2006," the Coalition said in its 2006-07 budget.

Even during periods of surplus, the AOFM will issue securities in order to maintain liquidity in the bond market, meaning gross debt is never entirely eliminated.

Running a budget in surplus means the government can pay interest on its CGS liabilities from its surplus. When the budget is in deficit, interest is paid from government borrowings.

When Labor's Kevin Rudd took over as prime minister in 2007, there was $59 billion in Commonwealth securities on issue. Under Mr Rudd, the ratio to GDP continued to fall for another three years, hitting the lowest point of the past 30 years.

The amount of Commonwealth securities on issue almost doubled in the year to June 2009. It has continued to rise as successive deficits have been recorded.

When the Abbott Government came to power in September 2013, there was $270 billion in Commonwealth securities on issue.

The growth in public debt reflected the impact of the sharp slowdown in the economy at that time - which hit the tax take hard - and the economic stimulus policies the Labor government said were implemented to counteract the global financial crisis.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-06-12/joe-hockey-one-billion-a-month-interest-fact-check/5478480



And now you have the Libs falling into the same trap ... HARUMPH !

 

[IFocus]

I will sleep well at night knowing Immigration Minister Peter Dutton (has to be the biggest dick head in politics going) is looking at getting further extraordinary big brother powers (to protect my freedom no doubt).

What is it with this government and the continued need for total authoritarian powers and erosion of basic freedoms?


http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-05-30/support-for-proposal-to-revoke-terrorists-citizenship/6508944

 

[luutzu]

I will sleep well at night knowing Immigration Minister Peter Dutton (has to be the biggest dick head in politics going) is looking at getting further extraordinary big brother powers (to protect my freedom no doubt).

What is it with this government and the continued need for total authoritarian powers and erosion of basic freedoms?


http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-05-30/support-for-proposal-to-revoke-terrorists-citizenship/6508944

It's good for blackmail and interrogation.

Don't worry, they might move to curb it a bit once a few of them get caught calling escorts or visit certain sites one too many and have their career handed to them.

Maybe then "our" freedom and privacy will become important again.

Until then, if they can't snoop and track all law-abiding citizens electronic trails, the terrorists (and the Russians, and soon the Chinese) will win.