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noco said:
Unemployment down...........121,000 jobs created.

More jobs are being created since removing the Carbon Dioxide tax, the Mining tax, green and red tape resulting in increased business confidence = more jobs.......Governments don't create jobs but they create an environment for private enterprise to make it worth while......I must confess though it takes a lot of savvy to understand all that......I hope you have it.
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When that jobs figure was announced, there was considerable surprise expressed all round. 121,000? Really?

Now today, the following is an extract from an article by Terry McCrann:
As for that jobs number, it was obviously completely wrong. It'd be the equivalent of nearly two million jobs being created in the US in a single month - trust me, they'd think they were in a boom if they got 500,000.

There's a much more general message out of it, which the various economists and commentators will almost certainly not learn.
This is that even 'normal' monthly jobs numbers are meaningless. A figure of 121,000 looks wrong, so most commentators treated it with caution. Exactly the same applies to a figure of 21,000.

But instead, commentators will authoritatively opine that such a figure shows the economy is picking up pace, or the opposite, depending whether it's a plus or minus.
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It's a bit like commentators, when the market rises or falls, attributing it to X. Y, or Z. Mostly they have no idea but like to sound wise. Ditto all the economists who apparently feel obliged to suggest prior to the Reserve Bank's regular meeting each month that the Reserve will probably do this or that because of A, B or C.
All just unnecessary and often wrong.

So just on the jobs figure, just as with much else in life, if it looks too good to be true, then that is probably because it is.
 
Julia said:
When that jobs figure was announced, there was considerable surprise expressed all round. 121,000? Really?

Now today, the following is an extract from an article by Terry McCrann:


It's a bit like commentators, when the market rises or falls, attributing it to X. Y, or Z. Mostly they have no idea but like to sound wise. Ditto all the economists who apparently feel obliged to suggest prior to the Reserve Bank's regular meeting each month that the Reserve will probably do this or that because of A, B or C.
All just unnecessary and often wrong.

So just on the jobs figure, just as with much else in life, if it looks too good to be true, then that is probably because it is.
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Terry McCrann is a pretty reliable reporter on this subject and maybe he is fairly accurate.

It always had me a bit baffled how the ABS come up with these figures and even the link below is a little confusing.....Unfortunately the 1 hour per week is often taken into account which in my mind should be disregarded.......I tried to research where these 121,000 were employed in various industries for others on the ASF but without success.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-09-11/abs-labour-force-employment-jobs-data/5736566

http://www.afr.com/p/national/economy/jobless_rate_falls_to_pc_new_jobs_FzWevd3RjupeAvq2TPUcbM
 
noco said:
Unemployment down...........121,000 jobs created.

More jobs are being created since removing the Carbon Dioxide tax, the Mining tax, green and red tape resulting in increased business confidence = more jobs.......Governments don't create jobs but they create an environment for private enterprise to make it worth while......I must confess though it takes a lot of savvy to understand all that......I hope you have it.
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You are the first who's saying we should believe those job figures. Did you cotton on to the fact that the total hours worked didn't change much (seasonally adjusted aggregate monthly hours worked increased 0.1 million hours to 1 ,609.5 million hours.). Somehow I doubt you'd have been so confident of the figures if there's been a - in front of them.

Part of the problem is the $50M ripped out of the ABS in the budget, forcing over 100 staff to be sacked recently.

We're going through one of the greatest economic inflection points in probably the last 100 years, and we're cutting back on the ABS who's data is relied on by the Govt and RBA to set policy. We're one of the very few developed countries that doesn't have a monthly CPI figure, and we get our first read on GDP over a month later than the USA.

It feels like we're choosing to go in blindfolded with one arm tied behind our backs. Policy is made on data 2 or 3 months behind the curve, which makes mistakes much more likely.

http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/6202.0
AUGUST KEY POINTS

TREND ESTIMATES (MONTHLY CHANGE)
Employment increased to 11,638,400.
Unemployment increased to 764,100.
Unemployment rate increased 0.1 pts to 6.2%.
Participation rate increased 0.1 pts to 65.0%.
Aggregate monthly hours worked increased 3.2 million hours (0.2%) to 1,613.6 million hours.
 
chiff said:
Regards fruit picking-from my knowledge in southern Australia most of the fruit picking is done by contractors hiring pickers.Of course there are exceptions ,but the game has changed in recent years,and it is not as easy for locals to seek this employment.In fact impossible in a lot of areas.
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Exactly. And here in Tas at least, some of those contractors are also in the business of providing hostel accommodation. No prizes for guessing why, and who they prefer to employ.

Pay minimum wage to some backpacker, get half of it straight back in accommodation fees. A profitable business model yes, but not one that allows anyone already living in the area to obtain such work unless they're single and don't own their home or have an ongoing lease. That's not most people.:2twocents
 
I think we've been through this all before but most fruit picking jobs are seasonal, they are short term jobs with no guarantees. To expect someone to relocate for short term work for pretty average wages is quite unreasonable, all though in saying that if I hit rock bottom and couldn't find work then I'd probably have to consider it.

A hypothetical though, if those jobless were willing to relocate and meet all these fruit picking jobs would we actually be better off as a country? So backpackers on working visas are no longer able to find work as the jobs have now been filled by locals, the word gets out that there is no point backpacking Australia on a working visa as you can't find work. Subsequently the tourism takes a hit, don't those on working visa's pay a higher tax rate too? Would we be better off or worse off in that situation?
 
overhang said:
I think we've been through this all before but most fruit picking jobs are seasonal, they are short term jobs with no guarantees. To expect someone to relocate for short term work for pretty average wages is quite unreasonable, all though in saying that if I hit rock bottom and couldn't find work then I'd probably have to consider it.

A hypothetical though, if those jobless were willing to relocate and meet all these fruit picking jobs would we actually be better off as a country? So backpackers on working visas are no longer able to find work as the jobs have now been filled by locals, the word gets out that there is no point backpacking Australia on a working visa as you can't find work. Subsequently the tourism takes a hit, don't those on working visa's pay a higher tax rate too? Would we be better off or worse off in that situation?
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There are some local orchards in my area and during picking season the land is filled with caravans and tents, so obviously they aren't locals who have homes to go to. May I suggest that some of the grey nomads who travel the country might decide to pick up some extra cash by picking fruit. I think that happens quite a lot.
 
SirRumpole said:
There are some local orchards in my area and during picking season the land is filled with caravans and tents, so obviously they aren't locals who have homes to go to. May I suggest that some of the grey nomads who travel the country might decide to pick up some extra cash by picking fruit. I think that happens quite a lot.
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Did you get a look at the demographic? I've heard of semi retirees doing that while traveling Australia, seems like a good idea imo and a good way to breakup a long adventure such as traveling our great country. Doesn't seem the sort of thing a young family could do who have a low socioeconomic status though.
 
overhang said:
Did you get a look at the demographic? I've heard of semi retirees doing that while traveling Australia, seems like a good idea imo and a good way to breakup a long adventure such as traveling our great country. Doesn't seem the sort of thing a young family could do who have a low socioeconomic status though.
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I didn't see the demographic. They may be professional fruit pickers who travel around, but i doubt they are locals. So maybe there is a picker/grower network where the growers know they will get experienced people with high productivity, rather than locals who they have to train.
 
overhang said:
I think we've been through this all before but most fruit picking jobs are seasonal, they are short term jobs with no guarantees. To expect someone to relocate for short term work for pretty average wages is quite unreasonable, all though in saying that if I hit rock bottom and couldn't find work then I'd probably have to consider it.

A hypothetical though, if those jobless were willing to relocate and meet all these fruit picking jobs would we actually be better off as a country? So backpackers on working visas are no longer able to find work as the jobs have now been filled by locals, the word gets out that there is no point backpacking Australia on a working visa as you can't find work. Subsequently the tourism takes a hit, don't those on working visa's pay a higher tax rate too? Would we be better off or worse off in that situation?
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More what happens once you're in the industry. You've got qualifications for other types of work but not had any luck with the lack of employment opportunities as people stay in their jobs and companies are not replacing any workers that do leave.

So you're picking the fruit or veggies every day. how do you have the time to look for a job more suitable to your skills? How do you get to job interviews? Because you're in a more remote area it's going to be difficult. You might get an employer who's understanding, but then you take the day off without pay to attend an interview tha might get you into another interview only to not get he job. Do that a few times and then you've probably not got the financial resources to continue.

What if the Govt subsidises your costs to move to do crop picking, then by some stroke of luck you get a job more suited to your skills? Are you forced to repay that money to the Govt?

I can't find the article I was reading recently, but it seems some members of the Govt are agitating the work for the dole to be extended from non profits to small businesses. I'm sure that will do wonders for the unemployed.
 
Retired Japanese submarine commander says buying Japanese subs "not in Australia's interests"



Soryu submarine deal: Japanese insiders warn sub program will cost more, hurt Australian jobs
By North Asia Correspondent Matthew Carney


Former senior Japanese military personnel have spoken out for the first time against the submarine deal the Abbott Government hopes to conclude with Japan.

Australia is considering buying 10 state of the art Soryu class submarines from Japan, at a reported price of more than $20 billion.

But Japanese military insiders have warned that it will cost much more.

They told the ABC there was great reluctance within the Japanese military to share their expertise, and said it would take Australia decades to perfect the submarines' top secret technology.

The Federal Government wants to replace its Collins class submarines with Soryus by 2030.

The technology around the Soryu has been classified as top secret, but insiders have described them as the world's best non-nuclear powered submarine, with the capacity to stay submerged for weeks.

"It's an issue of hull strength. Japan has secret technology, like special steel and noise reduction. So the issue is how can we share it," Kazuhisa Ogawa, a former government defence adviser and one of Japan's top military analysts, said.
Video: Watch Matthew Carney's report (7pm TV News NSW)

He said submarine warfare was decided by how quiet and deep the vessels could go.

Former Japanese submarine commander Toshihide Yamauchi was at sea for nearly 30 years.

He said it took Japan 60 years to develop and master the Soryu technology, and he believed they would not just give it all away.

Mr Yamauchi said Japan may provide just some of its knowledge to Australia.

"This is not just about building a hull, it's the most advanced submarine in the world and unless Australia studies it intensely and Japan helps, it will take decades," he said.

"Australia could have many technical and implementation problems."
What do you think about a potential deal for Soryu submarines between Japan and Australia? Have your say.

Mr Yamauchi and Mr Ogawa both told the ABC that an Australian budget of $20 billion would mean that all the construction would have to happen in Japan.

And they said any attempts to do any of the work in Adelaide would double the price.
Cheaper foreign subs a tough sell

The price tag for a totally Australian-built sub is unlikely to float - and it looks like the Abbott Government is trying to break the news gently to shipbuilders in South Australia, writes Michael Brissenden.

Mr Ogawa said if construction happened in Japan it would be bad for Australian jobs, but good for the Japanese economy.

"If the issue of military secrets can be resolved then Japanese business will be happy it will bring jobs and growth," he said.

Last week, Opposition Leader Bill Shorten demanded the Coalition Government stand by a pre-election commitment to build Australia's next fleet of submarines in South Australia.

Mr Shorten addressed a rally of workers from the Australian Submarine Corporation in Adelaide and told workers the nation's defence capabilities relied upon skilled workers as well as soldiers.

"Australia's security relies on four uniforms: Army, Navy, Air Force and Defence contractor, which is you," Mr Shorten said.

"If we fight we will win, and when we get rid of the rotten Abbott Government we will build our submarines in Australia, where it should be."

more at

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-09-15/japanese-concerns-over-submarine-deal/5743022
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"Many Australians die each year from car accidents, alcohol, falling from ladders, and other everyday causes.

Why must our Prime Minister focus the nation on the small chance that a lunatic may make a bomb and kill some of us. He admits to the lack of a clear threat, other than the existence of said lunatics. Let us concentrate instead on doing what we know works, such as better immunistion processes, looking after vulnerable members of our community etc. But maybe there are no votes in that."

by Evert de Graauw, todays Age.

In fact the entire front page of todays paper was a photo of Mr Rabbit and a jet plane taking off.

Our world is becoming a very sad joke.
 
sydboy007 said:
More what happens once you're in the industry. You've got qualifications for other types of work but not had any luck with the lack of employment opportunities as people stay in their jobs and companies are not replacing any workers that do leave.

So you're picking the fruit or veggies every day. how do you have the time to look for a job more suitable to your skills? How do you get to job interviews? Because you're in a more remote area it's going to be difficult. You might get an employer who's understanding, but then you take the day off without pay to attend an interview tha might get you into another interview only to not get he job. Do that a few times and then you've probably not got the financial resources to continue.

What if the Govt subsidises your costs to move to do crop picking, then by some stroke of luck you get a job more suited to your skills? Are you forced to repay that money to the Govt?

I can't find the article I was reading recently, but it seems some members of the Govt are agitating the work for the dole to be extended from non profits to small businesses. I'm sure that will do wonders for the unemployed.
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Yes very valid points Syd. On a side note regarding the mining and the relocating, I have some family that works in remote WA mining. One of them is a recruiter for mining companies, in the past they have had trouble employing those who apply from afar as they are given the job but then never actually make the move which results in lost time and productivity to the mine. So given they basically won't employ those that haven't made the move it puts prospective employees in a tough predicament, do you make the move before gaining employment but risk the chance you may actually never gain employment? If you're unskilled it's actually difficult to gain employment in the mines without knowing someone to get you in there.
 
explod said:
"Many Australians die each year from car accidents, alcohol, falling from ladders, and other everyday causes.

These are self inflicted incidents which in many cases could be avoided with some extra care.

Why must our Prime Minister focus the nation on the small chance that a lunatic may make a bomb and kill some of us. He admits to the lack of a clear threat, other than the existence of said lunatics. Let us concentrate instead on doing what we know works, such as better immunistion processes, looking after vulnerable members of our community etc. But maybe there are no votes in that."

Would be happy if some radical lunatic sent a rocket into a foot ball stadium killing one or some of your family, close friend, or comrade Bourke, Bowen or Shorten...... It has been revealed these radicals have hidden 5 rocket launchers in the bush west of Sydney

by Evert de Graauw, todays Age.

In fact the entire front page of todays paper was a photo of Mr Rabbit and a jet plane taking off.

So what did you expect him to do? Ride his push bike to the NT.

Our world is becoming a very sad joke.
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It is not the world that is becoming a sad joke but the people living in this world.
 
explod said:
"Many Australians die each year from car accidents, alcohol, falling from ladders, and other everyday causes.

Why must our Prime Minister focus the nation on the small chance that a lunatic may make a bomb and kill some of us. He admits to the lack of a clear threat, other than the existence of said lunatics. Let us concentrate instead on doing what we know works, such as better immunistion processes, looking after vulnerable members of our community etc. But maybe there are no votes in that."

by Evert de Graauw, todays Age.

In fact the entire front page of todays paper was a photo of Mr Rabbit and a jet plane taking off.

Our world is becoming a very sad joke.
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Flawed logic in that piece by Evert. I also read somewhere that we are actually living an unprecedented period of relative peace, which means I would not be going backwards in my time machine when it arrives in the future.
 
sydboy007 said:
More what happens once you're in the industry. You've got qualifications for other types of work but not had any luck with the lack of employment opportunities as people stay in their jobs and companies are not replacing any workers that do leave.
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What is Labor's plan to fix unemployment, syd?
 
Smurf1976 said:
Exactly. And here in Tas at least, some of those contractors are also in the business of providing hostel accommodation. No prizes for guessing why, and who they prefer to employ.

Pay minimum wage to some backpacker, get half of it straight back in accommodation fees. A profitable business model yes, but not one that allows anyone already living in the area to obtain such work unless they're single and don't own their home or have an ongoing lease. That's not most people.:2twocents
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I think you are wrong with your statement of paying minimum wages.

All the fruit picking jobs I have known are paid piece meal....that is you get paid for the amount of fruit you pick....so much per kilogram or bag full......you can make money from fruit picking if you are prepared to put your back to it.

If you are a hard worker you will most likely be paid double that of the slow worker who has only picked half of the amount of fruit.....the fruit grower is pretty smart.......he knows how to sort out the sheep from the goats.

Do you get the picture?
 
Yes there is a difference between what they call piece work( or sometimes contract) and being paid on wages.
From my experience most backpackers perform poorly on piece work...once again there are exceptions.Some employers pay wages -not on a piece work basis.It depends on the circumstances.
There were some superior piece workers who were competitive and took the job seriously...nearly always Australian and New Zealanders.
And yes some contractors pay under any award....one Cambodian I came in contact with paid new employees eight dollars an hour,and more experienced workers could earn up to fifteen dollars an hour.This was five years ago.His employees went on strike but did not get a much better deal.
 
And you have to factor in what the farmer has done to produce suitable product. For example some products need to be the right size, no insect bites etc. Quality can be extremely variable.
 
FORMER prime minister John Howard is uneasy about the *Abbott government’s decision to hold royal commissions into the former Labor government.


I’m uneasy about the idea of having royal commissions or inquiries into essentially a political decision on which the public has already delivered a verdict,’’ Mr Howard said. “I don’t think you should ever begin to go down the American path of using the law for narrow targeted political purposes. I think the special prosecutions in the US are appalling.”

Mr Howard also commented on the government’s Royal Commission into the Home Insulation Program, a scheme that saw four installers die after it was hurriedly rolled out as part of the *response to the global financial crisis.

“I am uneasy about those *approaches. I have to say I’m not happy about that but that’s a decision the government makes and, after all, the former government was tipped out on the strength of among other things the failure of the home insulation scheme,’’ Mr Howard said. “There has been coronial investigations.
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http://www.theaustralian.com.au/nat...o-labor-policies/story-fn59niix-1227058304540
 
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