The Abbott Government

[noco]

Yes I agree Doc, particularly if Hockey can show some spectacular results in the balance of this term.

I believe a lot will depend on overseas trade, an increase in commodity prices, control of the unions, the lifting of confidence in the business world and the creation of more jobs.

http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com...dline|story|Broken promises a disaster for PM


WITH so many broken election promises in the pipeline, and a prime minister never much loved in the electorate, you might think the Abbott government is in a spot of political bother.

It depends what one means by “bother”. They have a secure majority on the floor of the House and there is no poll due for two-and-a-half years.

There will be two more budgets and squillalitres of water under the bridge before the next election. And, in the end, politically, that election result will be all that matters, all that’s remembered.

A line from an Australian article on Thursday illustrates perfectly why the government has little to fear in 2016. It encapsulates the chief reason the ALP went out on its ear last year and, despite current opinion polls and general sentiment, is likely to stay there way beyond the next election.
Read More

 

[SirRumpole]

WITH so many broken election promises in the pipeline, and a prime minister never much loved in the electorate, you might think the Abbott government is in a spot of political bother.

It depends what one means by “bother”. They have a secure majority on the floor of the House and there is no poll due for two-and-a-half years.

There will be two more budgets and squillalitres of water under the bridge before the next election. And, in the end, politically, that election result will be all that matters, all that’s remembered.

A line from an Australian article on Thursday illustrates perfectly why the government has little to fear in 2016. It encapsulates the chief reason the ALP went out on its ear last year and, despite current opinion polls and general sentiment, is likely to stay there way beyond the next election.
Read More

I think you are dismissing Clive Palmer and what he may do too easily.

He has a grudge against the Liberal party , and he doesn't bear grudges lightly.

He could throw many spokes in the Lib's wheel over the next two years, if the Parliament lasts that long.

I also think you are underestimating the ability of Labor to bounce back. The main causes of Labor's defeat, Gillard and Rudd are gone. Shorten is making a valiant effort to re democratise Labor and give the members more say in policy and candidate selection. This will in turn give them more appeal to the electorate.

 

[noco]

I think you are dismissing Clive Palmer and what he may do too easily.

He has a grudge against the Liberal party , and he doesn't bear grudges lightly.

He could throw many spokes in the Lib's wheel over the next two years, if the Parliament lasts that long.

I also think you are underestimating the ability of Labor to bounce back. The main causes of Labor's defeat, Gillard and Rudd are gone. Shorten is making a valiant effort to re democratise Labor and give the members more say in policy and candidate selection. This will in turn give them more appeal to the electorate.

As far as Clive Palmer is concerned, he is well know as a "NUT CASE" at The Yaublu Nickel refinery.....Nobody knows what he stands for......He is losing a million dollars a day and wants to run the economy of Australia....He is a bag of wind is as big as himself.....IMHO voters are using him to ruffle the feathers of both the major parties.

Bills nick name as presented by Darren Finch on AM Agenda is "Bull Sh!ten"

He will also have to find his way through the mine field in the Royal Commission into the union corruption.


http://www.theaustralian.com.au/nat...about-slush-fund/story-fn59noo3-1226902660735

 

[sydboy007]

Yes I agree Doc, particularly if Hockey can show some spectacular results in the balance of this term.

I believe a lot will depend on overseas trade, an increase in commodity prices, control of the unions, the lifting of confidence in the business world and the creation of more jobs.

It will be a miracle if he can do it. As for increasing commodity prices, tell him he's dreaming. Practicially everything we produce is already in oversupply, and that situation is only going to get worse as more and more supply comes online.

Not sure how well Govt revenue will hold up when the ToT really takes a dive over the next year, combined with an AUD that's going to head towards the 70c level. Inflation takes off, petrol heads towards $2, RBA has to decide if it fights inflation or targets jobs growth, though the money markets may force them to raise rates. I doubt Keatings famous J curve for growth when the AUD falls can happen as easily this time around. What internationally competitive tradable sectors will we have left in 2015+? We might have to hope for a student and tourism boom.

http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2014/05/terms-of-trade-shock-round-two-begins/

Remember that the first [ToT hit], which began in late 2011, smashed nominal growth, added 1% to unemployment, blew up the Budget, initiated a miner equity bear market, and triggered 2.25% in rate cuts even though the mining investment boom was powering.

Basically Abbott and Hockey are going to have their equivalent of the GFC, only it will unfold at a slower rate but probably have far more damaging effects on confidence. Lets see them levy their way to a surplus eh.

We also have the commical Abbott with his weird numbers, or is that vodoo economics:

http://www.businessspectator.com.au/article/2014/5/2/climate/tony-abbott-comedian-extraordinaire

According to this government’s own budget numbers (on page 22 of the Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook), its abolition of the economic wrecking ball -- the great big carbon tax -- will leave taxpayers (both individuals and business) with an extra $7.4 billion in their pockets over the forward estimates, or $1.85bn per annum.

Estimates by tax experts cited by The Australian Financial Review speculate that the mooted deficit levy or hike in income tax rates the government is considering would impose an extra $10bn burden on taxpayers over four years, or $2.5 billion a year.

Somehow the $1.85bn carbon price is supposed to destroy the economy, although it actually came coupled with considerable compensating income tax cuts. Yet an income tax hike of $2.5bn will be good for the economy because it helps reduce the deficit. And of course, the carbon tax revenue somehow doesn’t help address the deficit, does it?

Now we have Hockey saying “So please this idea, somehow, that everything we have ever said is going to be held against what has moved on us because the previous Government basically misled the Australian people about the state of the budget, is kind of ridiculous.”

But my understanding is with the charter of budget honesty, and the PEFO released by Treasury, there can be no more hiding of the unvarnished truth regarding the budget. If Hockey can show the Australia public were mislead prior to the election, then he should be sacking those in Treasury responsible, and I'd like to hear what changes he proposes to make to ensure it doesn't occur at the next election.

 

[sptrawler]

It will be a miracle if he can do it. As for increasing commodity prices, tell him he's dreaming. Practicially everything we produce is already in oversupply, and that situation is only going to get worse as more and more supply comes online.

Not sure how well Govt revenue will hold up when the ToT really takes a dive over the next year, combined with an AUD that's going to head towards the 70c level. Inflation takes off, petrol heads towards $2, RBA has to decide if it fights inflation or targets jobs growth, though the money markets may force them to raise rates. I doubt Keatings famous J curve for growth when the AUD falls can happen as easily this time around. What internationally competitive tradable sectors will we have left in 2015+? We might have to hope for a student and tourism boom.

http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2014/05/terms-of-trade-shock-round-two-begins/

Remember that the first [ToT hit], which began in late 2011, smashed nominal growth, added 1% to unemployment, blew up the Budget, initiated a miner equity bear market, and triggered 2.25% in rate cuts even though the mining investment boom was powering.

Basically Abbott and Hockey are going to have their equivalent of the GFC, only it will unfold at a slower rate but probably have far more damaging effects on confidence. Lets see them levy their way to a surplus eh.

We also have the commical Abbott with his weird numbers, or is that vodoo economics:

http://www.businessspectator.com.au/article/2014/5/2/climate/tony-abbott-comedian-extraordinaire

According to this government’s own budget numbers (on page 22 of the Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook), its abolition of the economic wrecking ball -- the great big carbon tax -- will leave taxpayers (both individuals and business) with an extra $7.4 billion in their pockets over the forward estimates, or $1.85bn per annum.

Estimates by tax experts cited by The Australian Financial Review speculate that the mooted deficit levy or hike in income tax rates the government is considering would impose an extra $10bn burden on taxpayers over four years, or $2.5 billion a year.

Somehow the $1.85bn carbon price is supposed to destroy the economy, although it actually came coupled with considerable compensating income tax cuts. Yet an income tax hike of $2.5bn will be good for the economy because it helps reduce the deficit. And of course, the carbon tax revenue somehow doesn’t help address the deficit, does it?

Now we have Hockey saying “So please this idea, somehow, that everything we have ever said is going to be held against what has moved on us because the previous Government basically misled the Australian people about the state of the budget, is kind of ridiculous.”

But my understanding is with the charter of budget honesty, and the PEFO released by Treasury, there can be no more hiding of the unvarnished truth regarding the budget. If Hockey can show the Australia public were mislead prior to the election, then he should be sacking those in Treasury responsible, and I'd like to hear what changes he proposes to make to ensure it doesn't occur at the next election.

It sounds as if Tony and Joe are going to need a course in advanced policy development. Maybe they could do one of Labors policy development and napkin folding courses.lol

 

[SirRumpole]

As far as Clive Palmer is concerned, he is well know as a "NUT CASE" at The Yaublu Nickel refinery.....Nobody knows what he stands for......He is losing a million dollars a day and wants to run the economy of Australia....He is a bag of wind is as big as himself.....IMHO voters are using him to ruffle the feathers of both the major parties.

Yes, but he's in Parliament and he votes

Bills nick name as presented by Darren Finch on AM Agenda is "Bull Sh!ten"

Who the hell is Darren Finch, and why should we care what he thinks ?

 

[sptrawler]

I also think you are underestimating the ability of Labor to bounce back. The main causes of Labor's defeat, Gillard and Rudd are gone. .

That is a pretty damning statement, Rumpole, those two led your beloved Labor Party and the Country for the last six years.
Doesn't say much for your confidence, in the party, or its legacy after two terms in office.

 

[sydboy007]

It sounds as if Tony and Joe are going to need a course in advanced policy development. Maybe they could do one of Labors policy development and napkin folding courses.lol

Somehow the last few days makes me suspect we could only be so lucky that Tony was using a napkin. Glad to see at least you're happy with his performance and the economic direction he's taken.

Shame you're ignoring the cold hard truth just as much as any of our political leaders. The free ride of the noughties is over. The world is no longer going to continue to pay ever increasing amounts for our exports. We've got monumental LNG plants at near the top of the cost curve, which will be hard pressed to break even once USA and Canadian LNG hits the market in roughly 3 to 5 years, yet we'll still be stuck paying 3 times the current cost for natural gas in this country. Every last molecule of gas frozen and shipped fresh to Asia with nary a thought on the massive job losses that will cause.

All those tens of billions in tax cuts we had bribed to us, fuelling speculative house prices and consumer goods. Now what do we have to show for it? Crap infrastructure that was barely coping in 2000, now buckling under an extra few million people because our politicians keep funnelling in more consumers for the business lobby with no long term plan on how to build the country to support them, hoping the extra bodies keep the housing ponzi merry go round spinning just a bit longer. We're practically the highest direct taxing nation, relying far too much on costly business and income taxes, too afraid to have an adult conversation on how to change the tax structure so we can raise more money and achieve the magic pudding of lower overall taxation which can be done relatively simply, just with some political pain.

I've seen nothing from Labor while they were in Government that they were up to leading us on the difficult challenges that are now coming home to roost. Currently Abbott is doing as poor a job on the issues too. The guy can't even admit his PPL is a dog of a policy. That kind of pig headedness is not what you expect from a leader. It might work wonders in opposition when it's all care no responsibility, but when you're actually in charge it's just ludicrous.

The 50 odd years of demographic tail winds have turned against us since 2010. Raising the pension age isn't going to do much when it excludes all the boomers heading for retirement, and ignoring the $120 odd billion in tax expenditures isn't going to make getting a budget surplus any easier too. Being so beholden to the FIRE sector that this Government is doesn't bode well for us as consumers, nor will it help slash the costs of our pension system that costs twice the OECD average to run on top of costing a similar amount to the aged pension. Super is costing roughly $60B a year between tax expenditures and fees and it's not even on the agenda. Can you think of any Government program that has costs escalating at 12% a year? That's super tax expenditures. How does a grown up leadership ignore something like that? They've spent more effort on trying to make changes to the anti discrimination act and bring back all the bigotry that occurred before, so it's only fitting Abbott also wants to bring back a by gone era of knights and dames as well.

 

[sptrawler]

Somehow the last few days makes me suspect we could only be so lucky that Tony was using a napkin. Glad to see at least you're happy with his performance and the economic direction he's taken.

Shame you're ignoring the cold hard truth just as much as any of our political leaders. The free ride of the noughties is over. The world is no longer going to continue to pay ever increasing amounts for our exports. We've got monumental LNG plants at near the top of the cost curve, which will be hard pressed to break even once USA and Canadian LNG hits the market in roughly 3 to 5 years, yet we'll still be stuck paying 3 times the current cost for natural gas in this country. Every last molecule of gas frozen and shipped fresh to Asia with nary a thought on the massive job losses that will cause.

All those tens of billions in tax cuts we had bribed to us, fuelling speculative house prices and consumer goods. Now what do we have to show for it? Crap infrastructure that was barely coping in 2000, now buckling under an extra few million people because our politicians keep funnelling in more consumers for the business lobby with no long term plan on how to build the country to support them, hoping the extra bodies keep the housing ponzi merry go round spinning just a bit longer. We're practically the highest direct taxing nation, relying far too much on costly business and income taxes, too afraid to have an adult conversation on how to change the tax structure so we can raise more money and achieve the magic pudding of lower overall taxation which can be done relatively simply, just with some political pain.

I've seen nothing from Labor while they were in Government that they were up to leading us on the difficult challenges that are now coming home to roost. Currently Abbott is doing as poor a job on the issues too. The guy can't even admit his PPL is a dog of a policy. That kind of pig headedness is not what you expect from a leader. It might work wonders in opposition when it's all care no responsibility, but when you're actually in charge it's just ludicrous.

The 50 odd years of demographic tail winds have turned against us since 2010. Raising the pension age isn't going to do much when it excludes all the boomers heading for retirement, and ignoring the $120 odd billion in tax expenditures isn't going to make getting a budget surplus any easier too. Being so beholden to the FIRE sector that this Government is doesn't bode well for us as consumers, nor will it help slash the costs of our pension system that costs twice the OECD average to run on top of costing a similar amount to the aged pension. Super is costing roughly $60B a year between tax expenditures and fees and it's not even on the agenda. Can you think of any Government program that has costs escalating at 12% a year? That's super tax expenditures. How does a grown up leadership ignore something like that? They've spent more effort on trying to make changes to the anti discrimination act and bring back all the bigotry that occurred before, so it's only fitting Abbott also wants to bring back a by gone era of knights and dames as well.

Absolutely no one can turn the economy on a sixpence, nor would people expect it.
It is hard enough getting any changes to be enacted, wait and see how much gets through parliament.
Lets not forget it was only 12 months ago Swany was telling us everything was apples.
I'm hoping there is something to address negative gearing. As for all the jumping up and down about raising the pension ago, it is garbage.
If people wish to retire before pension age, save up for it, same as others have. Most people at my age have to wait untill 67 anyway, I'm not saying it is right or wrong, just the way it is.
Here is a link to what I think you are refering to regards super.

http://www.taxpayer.com.au/News/281...x_breaks_to_be_abolished_in_lead-up_to_Budget

The problem with that is that, it will end up just like our last self funded pension system.
The government will incorporate it all into consolidated revenue, then it will be means tested and around we go again.
Everyone gets a pension what a laugh, how long would that last.lol

 

[Julia]

[
WITH so many broken election promises in the pipeline, and a prime minister never much loved in the electorate, you might think the Abbott government is in a spot of political bother.

It depends what one means by “bother”. They have a secure majority on the floor of the House and there is no poll due for two-and-a-half years.

There will be two more budgets and squillalitres of water under the bridge before the next election. And, in the end, politically, that election result will be all that matters, all that’s remembered.

A line from an Australian article on Thursday illustrates perfectly why the government has little to fear in 2016. It encapsulates the chief reason the ALP went out on its ear last year and, despite current opinion polls and general sentiment, is likely to stay there way beyond the next election.
Read More

I wouldn't be nearly as confident about the government being returned for a second term on the basis of their performance so far. Yes, a big plus for stopping the boats, but let's remember that in the minds of some of the electorate this has come at an unacceptable humanitarian cost.

Briefly watching Chris Bowen with Tony Jones on Lateline last night, I couldn't help thinking that if he were leading the Opposition right now, rather than the banal, ineffectual Bill Shorten with his silly whining about everything, Labor would have more than a decent chance of getting back into government unless Abbott et al can learn how to communicate properly with the electorate.

Let's see if the presumably anodyne nature of the upcoming budget allays some of the fear and loathing in the electorate.

 

[CanOz]

It's amazing to me to see the bearishness on Australia in this and other threads....

One simple fact remains, Australia is at or near the top of the list for most desirable places to live in Asia pacific and the world...this fact has not been lost on us as we have travelled through out Sydney and Brisbane in search or property the past couple of weeks...indeed it's still the Lucky country, breathtakingly so in fact.

Roll on bull market, roll on.

Governments really have no lasting economic impact, one party reverses the last parties bungles...the business cycles roll on...

 

[sptrawler]

It's amazing to me to see the bearishness on Australia in this and other threads....

One simple fact remains, Australia is at or near the top of the list for most desirable places to live in Asia pacific and the world...this fact has not been lost on us as we have travelled through out Sydney and Brisbane in search or property the past couple of weeks...indeed it's still the Lucky country, breathtakingly so in fact.

Roll on bull market, roll on.

Governments really have no lasting economic impact, one party reverses the last parties bungles...the business cycles roll on...

Spot on CanOz, people need to just suck it up and get on with it, way too many princesses in Aus.

On a brighter note, Andrew Forrest has bought out 'Harvey Beef', at last an Aussie buying Australian. The Chinese were running their rule over it.

https://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/latest/a/23153028/forrest-buys-harvey-beef-for-40m/

Oh he was another one Labor loved to bash.

 

[SirRumpole]

That is a pretty damning statement, Rumpole, those two led your beloved Labor Party and the Country for the last six years.
Doesn't say much for your confidence, in the party, or its legacy after two terms in office.

I'm not a member of any political party, I vote for whoever I think will do a good job for the future of the country.

I may well have voted for Howard in 2007 if he had showed some commitment to building productive infrastructure and had some plans for the future instead of just buying votes at election time with tax cuts.

Howard never had any interest in education or setting up high tech industries, he just wanted a bunch of bogan slaves for the mining industry. Unfortunately Abbott looks as if he is cast in the same mould (spelling intended).

Rudd and Gillard both had some good policies, but their egos got the better of them, and most of their plans were cruelled by the GFC. Hopefully Labor keeps their good ideas, and the new crop implements them better.

 

[Julia]

Rudd and Gillard both had some good policies, but their egos got the better of them, and most of their plans were cruelled by the GFC. Hopefully Labor keeps their good ideas, and the new crop implements them better.

You might add "and figures out how to pay for them".

 

[SirRumpole]

You might add "and figures out how to pay for them".

Well, it won't be by throwing away revenue like the carbon and mining taxes and introducing expensive middle class welfare 'entitlements' like the Coalition's PPL.

 

[sptrawler]

Howard never had any interest in education or setting up high tech industries, he just wanted a bunch of bogan slaves for the mining industry. Unfortunately Abbott looks as if he is cast in the same mould (spelling intended)..

I think you will find the critical shortage of labour for the mining industry was during the Rudd/Gillard term, that was the major reason they gave Rhinehart permission to stock Roy Hill with 457's

Rudd and Gillard both had some good policies, but their egos got the better of them, and most of their plans were cruelled by the GFC. Hopefully Labor keeps their good ideas, and the new crop implements them better.

Again selective memory seems to be creeping in, post the carbon tax, many high tech companies heve gone offshore. The solar panel company that was established here 30years ago, for example. You are starting to sound like showbag Bill, amnesia setting in.

 

[Calliope]

You might add "and figures out how to pay for them".

Rumpole is obviously a Greenie. How you pay for anything never figures in their "policies".

 

[noco]

Rumpole is obviously a Greenie. How you pay for anything never figures in their "policies".

Just pile it up on the credit card and let the next Government work out how to pay for it all.......Comrades of the Greenies don't know any other way.

 

[sydboy007]

Absolutely no one can turn the economy on a sixpence, nor would people expect it.
It is hard enough getting any changes to be enacted, wait and see how much gets through parliament.
Lets not forget it was only 12 months ago Swany was telling us everything was apples.
I'm hoping there is something to address negative gearing. As for all the jumping up and down about raising the pension ago, it is garbage.
If people wish to retire before pension age, save up for it, same as others have. Most people at my age have to wait untill 67 anyway, I'm not saying it is right or wrong, just the way it is.
Here is a link to what I think you are refering to regards super.

http://www.taxpayer.com.au/News/281...x_breaks_to_be_abolished_in_lead-up_to_Budget

The problem with that is that, it will end up just like our last self funded pension system.
The government will incorporate it all into consolidated revenue, then it will be means tested and around we go again.
Everyone gets a pension what a laugh, how long would that last.lol

I don't expect things to be fixed in a day, but I do expect to have a feel for a coherent strategy by now, and there doesn't seem to be one.

lets look at the CoA. Loaded with economic dries and ignores the politics of the changes that need to be made. Little in the it that can help the Government educate (for want of a better word) the public on why the changes are desirable.

Worse, the Government set the terms of the CoA so narrowly and explicitly ignored:

* The GST
* $120B+ of tax expenditures.

If I'm going to pay for an audit that I plan to use to help get my finances in shape, I'm not going to hobble the audit by setting up major areas of my finances as off limits. That's what this Government has done. It's not economically rational.

As for super, we can no longer afford the current system. Something fairer where everyone gets the same tax expenditures each year is probably the best way forward. At least that would be a progressive system rather than the massively regressive system we currently have, but the Abbott Govt has already sided with the 16000 super fund members earning over 100K tax free each year over the couple of million members who were to benefit from the LISC. The Abbott Government purposefully told the CoA to ignore this issue. To me if a system is costing around $60B a year then it's ripe for some massive savings.

Throw in an ex banker heading the financial services review I don't expect any changes, especially when you read about the scandals now coming out regarding financial planers at the CBA under his time as CEO. Funny how that kind of corruption is ignored, but the merest whiff of union corruption gets anyone on the right into a near rabid frenzy. Damning that ASIC ignored it, damning that Labor allowed them to as well.

 

[sptrawler]

I don't expect things to be fixed in a day, but I do expect to have a feel for a coherent strategy by now, and there doesn't seem to be one.

lets look at the CoA. Loaded with economic dries and ignores the politics of the changes that need to be made. Little in the it that can help the Government educate (for want of a better word) the public on why the changes are desirable.

Worse, the Government set the terms of the CoA so narrowly and explicitly ignored:

* The GST
* $120B+ of tax expenditures.

If I'm going to pay for an audit that I plan to use to help get my finances in shape, I'm not going to hobble the audit by setting up major areas of my finances as off limits. That's what this Government has done. It's not economically rational.

As for super, we can no longer afford the current system. Something fairer where everyone gets the same tax expenditures each year is probably the best way forward. At least that would be a progressive system rather than the massively regressive system we currently have, but the Abbott Govt has already sided with the 16000 super fund members earning over 100K tax free each year over the couple of million members who were to benefit from the LISC. The Abbott Government purposefully told the CoA to ignore this issue. To me if a system is costing around $60B a year then it's ripe for some massive savings.

Throw in an ex banker heading the financial services review I don't expect any changes, especially when you read about the scandals now coming out regarding financial planers at the CBA under his time as CEO. Funny how that kind of corruption is ignored, but the merest whiff of union corruption gets anyone on the right into a near rabid frenzy. Damning that ASIC ignored it, damning that Labor allowed them to as well.

Talk about a near rabid frenzy, I would say that pretty well covers the chorus against the governments every idea and that's before a budget is put in place.
Well at least the frenzy over 'they will never be able to stop the boats' seems to have abated.
Now all we have to do is wait and see what happens fiscally, maybe then all the screamers and lefties will be proven wrong yet again.
It is really hillarious watching Shorten on t.v, trying to pretend they had nothing to do with the fiscal situation, he is a real goose. I must say though, he has all the makings of a Labor treasurer, thick skin, look straight in the camera while bulls###ing.lol