TGA - Thorn Group

[takeprofits]

Hey Techy, do me a favour and buy some more TGA in the $1.50's with a tight stop, and I'll buy them off you in the $1.40's when your tea leaves tell you to sell.

You T/A guys should clear off to your own thread, so we don't have to read your drivle!

 

[robusta]

Hey Techy, do me a favour and buy some more TGA in the $1.50's with a tight stop, and I'll buy them off you in the $1.40's when your tea leaves tell you to sell.

You T/A guys should clear off to your own thread, so we don't have to read your drivle!

I like hearing differing opinions, maybe I will learn something.

 

[tech/a]

Hey Techy, do me a favour and buy some more TGA in the $1.50's with a tight stop, and I'll buy them off you in the $1.40's when your tea leaves tell you to sell.

You T/A guys should clear off to your own thread, so we don't have to read your drivle!

And this was an exclusive thread
WHEN?

Introduce yourself to the IGNORE button.

 

[prawn_86]

Just to note that this thread is the TGA thread. Any forms of analysis can be discussed, as long as it is backed up with reasoning

 

[CanOz]

Hey Techy, do me a favour and buy some more TGA in the $1.50's with a tight stop, and I'll buy them off you in the $1.40's when your tea leaves tell you to sell.

You T/A guys should clear off to your own thread, so we don't have to read your drivle!

This thread is for discussion of TGA be it Technical or Fundamental. I would like to think that both schools can compliment each other...the institutions seem to think so

CanOz

Edit: thanks Prawn!! Too quick for me!

 

[tech/a]

Hey Techy, do me a favour and buy some more TGA in the $1.50's with a tight stop, and I'll buy them off you in the $1.40's when your tea leaves tell you to sell.

You T/A guys should clear off to your own thread, so we don't have to read your drivle!

And this was an exclusive thread
WHEN?

Introduce yourself to the IGNORE button.

 

[prawn_86]

Edit: thanks Prawn!! Too quick for me!

That's what my wife says!

 

[Klogg]

Wow... can we stop trying to shoot everyone else's method down?

Even though I'm not well-versed in T/A and don't use it, I do appreciate hearing/learning about it - especially when the trade is as accurate as Boggo's last.

 

[takeprofits]

I actually do appreciate the tecnical analysis gamblers out there. If it wasn't for them the fundamental analysis investors might not get the chance to increase their holdings in well run profitable businesses.

 

[CanOz]

I actually do appreciate the tecnical analysis gamblers out there. If it wasn't for them the fundamental analysis investors might not get the chance to increase their holdings in well run profitable businesses.

Technical traders aren't the only ones adding to the liquidity pool!

CanOz

 

[tech/a]

I actually do appreciate the tecnical analysis gamblers out there. If it wasn't for them the fundamental analysis investors might not get the chance to increase their holdings in well run profitable businesses.

Yeh I love the gamblers as well technical and funny mental.

 

[tech/a]

Like the look of this technically again.
Looking for a strong move from here.
Gap/wide range bar/ average volume
High volume would indicate supply.
And that would see my interest wane.

 

[Pioupiou]

Like the look of this technically again.
Looking for a strong move from here.
Gap/wide range bar/ average volume
High volume would indicate supply.
And that would see my interest wane.

I think you are right - supply is tight at the current circa $1.55 level, but buyers think they are going to pick TGA up cheap, so they are pitching their bids low, and hoping. I am interested to see if the SP dribbles up to $1.60 over the next week or so. Not that it will sway me to either buy or sell, because I have neither the funds to buy, nor the inclination to sell below $2.00.

 

[Pioupiou]

I think you are right - supply is tight at the current circa $1.55 level, but buyers think they are going to pick TGA up cheap, so they are pitching their bids low, and hoping. I am interested to see if the SP dribbles up to $1.60 over the next week or so. Not that it will sway me to either buy or sell, because I have neither the funds to buy, nor the inclination to sell below $2.00.

Supply between $1.55 and $1.60 is waxing, so TGA is not going to get to $1.60 in a hurry. Anyhow, tomorrow is dividend-receiving day, so that cheers me up a bit.

 

[Pioupiou]

Somebody bought 750,000 TGA at COB on Tuesday, 24/07/2012, for something like $1.51, and AMP Limited announced it increased its holding from 7,398,916 (5.05%) TGA shares to 8,879,406 (6.07%) as of that date. The latter is an increase of 1,480,490, so it is possible that AMP bought that parcel on Tuesday, but one cannot be sure. The new floor seems to be about $1.50 – at that SP the shares get vacuumed up as quickly as they are offered.

I have not read the annual report in detail, but the forward-looking comments were interesting. They seem to imply that Radio Rentals/Rentlo will dribble forward – Cashfirst and Thorn Equipment Finance (TEF) will be stunning – NCML will improve – costs will be incurred launching the used car rental initiative – some five new one-person branches (OPBs) are on the cards. Because Radio Rentals/Rentlo delivers 90% of the profits, one could read this to mean that relative to FY2012 the EPS could be down a smidgeon (as the Macqurie report suggests) or up a smidgeon (as I like to think).

According to John Hughes (May presentation), as a rule of thumb new initiatives follow the same path as opening new OPBs – that is, they lose money in Y1, break even in Y2 and make a profit in Y3. Consequently, earlier-opened OPBs, TEF and Cashfirst will add to profitability, whereas new stores and the car-rental initiative will detract from profitability.

The Annual Report suggests that the expansion of the outlet network is nearing completion – the exact words being “After some four years of upgrades and relocations the store network is in a position of optimising its service reach and accessibility to customers.” In a way this is good news, because pushing into increasingly less suitable outlets is a common way for outlet-dependant businesses fixated on increasing turnover expand into profit dilution. TGA would be better served using the outlet network to make profits from new rental products and new businesses like Cashfirst, and the planned variations to Cashfirst (a new division centered on Cashfirst is planned, and it will expand into additional demographics).

A point that I had not considered before is for OPBs to expand into Full Service Branches. The words in the report are: “One Person Branches are used to develop unserviced and underserviced regional areas that have the ability to become stand-alone Full Service Branches within two to three years. New outlets continued to perform strongly with the majority exceeding expectations. This provides strong impetus for up to another five to be opened in the 2012/13 year.”

About two months ago I completed a report on TGA that I wrote for myself, and which I shared with some four people, including one or two readers of this forum. I tired of the exercise, and did not edit it to publication quality, and neither did I include comparisons with other stocks, as I had originally intended. In that report I assumed EPS would grow 8% in FY2013, and then 10% and then 12%. There is a reasonable copy of that report at http://www.jochimaker.com/ Pasting into the blog as damaged the layout and interfered with the font slightly.

On the matter of new initiatives reducing short-term profitability, accounting can legitimately mask this by capitalising costs, and if you read MMS's reports, you can see that this is what it does, plus it borrows to fund its rental property (car fleets). TGA tends to be conservative, so it expenses development costs where it can, and it self funds its rental stock. What TGA will do in future in respect to funding stock handled by TEF and the rented cars remains to be seen. Personally, I think TGA can tolerate a little more debt with advantage. As an aside on masking or exaggerating profits, the value of Purchased Debt Ledgers is extremely subjective, so it is a soft target for accounting manipulation, with somebody suggesting that CCP may via this process be doing better than they publish, and one of its competitors (cannot recall the name) going in the opposite direction. Reported profits can be elastic.

 

[Kulio]

TGA

Still dead in the water technically.
Taking the small loss was wise in hindsite.

Lol could have had a small gain instead. Doubt you had a better opportunity cost elsewhere while recovering that loss. Small or big, a loss is never good.

 

[brty]

Kulio, that is not the way people should be using this forum.

Not that anyone needs to come to Tech/A's defence, but you need to be reminded that he has his system that has shown long term results, and he sticks to it. In this case it called for a long position with a stop of 4 cents. If his system shows a positive expectancy per x number of trades, this is just another trade in the sequence. You take all trades knowing that there will be losses.

How do you trade? Do you stay in until the price has gone horribly against you, because the story is good (fundamentals)?

 

[tech/a]

TGA

Still dead in the water technically.
Taking the small loss was wise in hindsite.

14th June
Our friend has selective "quote" syndrome.
Note the 17th July.

A $500 loss is 1 session on the FTSE. about 30 ticks. (Usually 1-2 hrs)
So hardly an issue.

 

[prawn_86]

Further posts talking about individual investors styles on this thread will be removed and infracted. Final warning.

Please stick to the discussion at hand, which is RED

 

[barney]

Further posts talking about individual investors styles on this thread will be removed and infracted. Final warning.

Please stick to the discussion at hand, which is RED

Gotta stop using those "Form" letters Prawn: