TGA - Thorn Group

[RottenValue]

My view on why we have such divergent views on this business is that the majority of commentators have no understanding of Thorn Groups customer base. Anyone who is comfortably off can't comprehend why you would enter into a lease deal for things such as TV, furniture or whitegoods. I heard this stock being discussed on YMYC and the analyst making the point that the business model was dead as the cost of goods was now so cheap anyone would just buy them.

If we are are talking about a BMW then I'm sure the Macquarie analyst would understand the difference between the various purchasing models available!

The beauty of the poverty stocks is that they just continue to work away below the radar and accumulate earnings over a long period of time, providing a service to the part of the economy that the majority of the Melbourne and Sydney well to-do have no connection to.

Hopefully Rodger the Dodger does his thing at some stage and the price starts to look after Pioupiou's retirement.

Disclosure: I hold a small amount of TGA (20,000 shares) but accumulating

 

[craft]

I sent a copy of my 20-page Magnus Opus to Roger Montgomery, and in his recent blog entry he mentioned that he would provide a link to that report.

I'm curious as to why you would provide content for his marketing machine, allow him to summarise it, and dictate timing of release. He likes to promote his blog as some sort of benevolent site for value investors to share, but what it is really about is generating free content to support the marketing of his products or positions.

 

[tech/a]

My view on why we have such divergent views on this business is that the majority of commentators have no understanding of Thorn Groups customer base. Anyone who is comfortably off can't comprehend why you would enter into a lease deal for things such as TV, furniture or whitegoods. I heard this stock being discussed on YMYC and the analyst making the point that the business model was dead as the cost of goods was now so cheap anyone would just buy them.

If we are are talking about a BMW then I'm sure the Macquarie analyst would understand the difference between the various purchasing models available!

The beauty of the poverty stocks is that they just continue to work away below the radar and accumulate earnings over a long period of time, providing a service to the part of the economy that the majority of the Melbourne and Sydney well to-do have no connection to.

Hopefully Rodger the Dodger does his thing at some stage and the price starts to look after Pioupiou's retirement.

Disclosure: I hold a small amount of TGA (20,000 shares) but accumulating

(1) And this has no merit?
(2) How can you use this analogy?

Its dead.
Better invest elsewhere.

Where?
Short indexes.

 

[tech/a]

I'm curious as to why you would provide content for his marketing machine, allow him to summarise it, and dictate timing of release. He likes to promote his blog as some sort of benevolent site for value investors to share, but what it is really about is generating free content to support the marketing of his products.

Its a feel good thing.
You know involved in a "known"
blog. The need to be taken
seriously. Confirmation of view.
Validation in your own mind.

 

[Pioupiou]

I'm curious as to why you would provide content for his marketing machine, allow him to summarise it, and dictate timing of release. He likes to promote his blog as some sort of benevolent site for value investors to share, but what it is really about is generating free content to support the marketing of his products or positions.

I routinely visit this forum, Hotcopper, Topstocks and Roger's blog, and I contribute to all four when the spirit moves me. I would be delighted to communicate with Lucifer himself, the bearer of light, if he were prepared to elucidate the unknowns that pertain to TGA for me, so sending an email to Roger hardly troubled me. If Roger provides a link to that report, as he wrote that he would, a wider readership might at least generate constructive debate.

As RottenValue wrote, TGA's business is remarkably poorly understood - not that ignorance stints some folk expressing negative opinions about the business on television shows like YMYC.

 

[Boggo]

There may be a few trading squid in this 'amazing investment stock' for the nimble footed

(click to expand)

 

[Boggo]

This seems to be travelling ok at the moment.
There may be a bit of resistance around 1.51 but expecting that it won't be an issue.

(click to expand)

 

[Klogg]

This seems to be travelling ok at the moment.
There may be a bit of resistance around 1.51 but expecting that it won't be an issue.

(click to expand)

Nice work Boggo - you were spot on with that trade.

 

[RottenValue]

Its dead.
Better invest elsewhere.

Where?
Short indexes.

Wheres Tech/A when we need him?

I cant believe his chart wizardry could miss a 10% increase in a week

 

[Klogg]

Wheres Tech/A when we need him?

I cant believe his chart wizardry could miss a 10% increase in a week

Let's be fair - he did say he's setting a tight stop-loss and was very strict in his approach and did only say "Its dead" in respect to his trade. You can't a crack at him because one trade didn't work.

As for the SP movements of TGA, I find it quite odd that the SP has started moving so long after the release of their annual results...

 

[Kulio]

Wheres Tech/A when we need him?

I cant believe his chart wizardry could miss a 10% increase in a week

People like to talk about their winners and say nothing when it comes to when they are wrong. Perhaps he thought TGA would continue on a "down trend" and felt the need to say it's a dead investment? Who knows what these techys think? Afterall they seem to be "experts" in something that is fuelled by emotions most of the time. ie price

 

[Boggo]

As for the SP movements of TGA, I find it quite odd that the SP has started moving so long after the release of their annual results...

We are back to the old chestnut aren't we, buy on behaviour or annual results.

Overall sentiment, predictable behaviour, predictable patterns, price action and volume behaviour etc are much more consistent, reliable and stronger force than any results.
Most annual reports etc are already accounted for by the money that has influence.

The average punter trying to get ahead of or even stay with the game by depending on reports etc is just picking up the crumbs if they are lucky. They can piggyback the big money and collect dividends along the way but in most cases the big money has been and gone and is on their next exploit while the punter is left holding the remnants.

Fund managers etc do ride out the declines but always with their clients money while they 'earn' a steady annual income in fees and convince their clients that all is well because the dividend yield is approaching double digits while avoiding explaining why.

If you want to find out what the weather is going to do tomorrow then look at the weather map, don't ask the guy who sells umbrellas.

My

 

[Boggo]

Who knows what these techys think? Afterall they seem to be "experts" in something that is fuelled by emotions most of the time. ie price

That's reality isn't it

 

[Kulio]

That's reality isn't it

It is reality but predicting something as random as emotions is something I never understood.

Take my wife for example. Her emotional state is quite stable the last few weeks and it seems she is getting happier each day. So just when I think the trend is going to continue, she turns into a downright bitch all of a sudden. Never saw it coming.

 

[robusta]

It is reality but predicting something as random as emotions is something I never understood.

Take my wife for example. Her emotional state is quite stable the last few weeks and it seems she is getting happier each day. So just when I think the trend is going to continue, she turns into a downright bitch all of a sudden. Never saw it coming.

Same thing happens in our house, probably about a dozen times a year I still can't figure out any pattern. Surprises me every time.

 

[tech/a]

People like to talk about their winners and say nothing when it comes to when they are wrong. Perhaps he thought TGA would continue on a "down trend" and felt the need to say it's a dead investment? Who knows what these techys think? Afterall they seem to be "experts" in something that is fuelled by emotions most of the time. ie price

What the????

Since april 2011 its dropped around 40%
Its risen 10% which is a drop in the ocean
Currently its clearly ranging between $1.55 and 1.40ish.
hardly mind boggling.

When it does something of note like clears $1.60 on
a clear gap or solid volume impulse bar Ill agree.
but until then its dead.--In my not so humble opinion.

Oh and when is price fuelled by fundamental valuation?
Wait I know.
When its not fuelled by emotion!

Price is fuelled by Supply---as simple as that---thats right SUPPLY!
Not demand!

 

[tech/a]

a dozen times a year

So youd say periodically

 

[CanOz]

So youd say periodically

ROFL!!

I see a pattern here

 

[Boggo]

If TGA can break up through the 1.56 area convincingly then the next target should be mid to high 1.60's.

(click to expand)

 

[Klogg]

A question for you Boggo - Given that the $1.58 was a point of support for a while, would this not be the point of resistance that needs to be breached?

And thanks for the chart.