TGA - Thorn Group

[tech/a]

Hindsight trading now is it? I mentioned a possible V-bottom at $1.34 (last I checked still in play) well before the techies arrived in the thread (and was subsequently told a four-year old could see that the trend was going down).

You freely give advice to others, whether they want it or not, I'm giving you some of your own to think about. I remember saying on the day that your entry looked arbitrary at best. Go check out the post.

In this case you changed your analysis after the fact and were a bit rash - it's an error of judgment that I am pointing out not a personal attack. I'm certainly not questioning your trading prowess.

OF course it's an error in judgement.
The analysis was proven wrong that's why stops are placed.
Thats what I like about. T/A you can be wrong more often than your right and still be profitable.
Short term analysis is a bar by bar process.

Longterm analysis for TGA is a prolonged down trend.

For the pleasure of Duck hunters
I get it wrong --- often
Aim however profitable --- often.
I minimize loss and where I can maximize gain.

It's called trading.

 

[ROE]

The eternal fight of TA vs FA
I think you guys wasting times trying to prove each other wrong.
Just stick to the stuff you do best and stick to the topic of the individual stock

every thread on this stockforum some how end up with TA vs FA.

TA can put up their charts and FA can put up figures and please stay on track

 

[Boggo]

Yeah but you're talking about speculative stocks that are, quite bluntly, crap fundamentally with no history of solid earnings or confidence of solid earning going forward. Those types of stocks are a gamble and you would want a stop loss on them. Better to avoid that problem by not investing in crap companies fundamentally wise.

Its quite interesting then how most who hold for the long term and ride their potential profit downwards seem to quote prices that they originally bought them at when the stocks were speccys.

Those three stocks you mention are absolutely horrible fundamentally wise and anyone who bought and held those stocks deserve to have lost their money for investing in such crap companies.

They are horrible now but they were fine on the way up and half way down as well and this is the issue worth noting (see example below)

Just like those people who went on another speculation adventure in trees just a few years back.

I had a great run years ago with TIM but was on the sidelines when the fundamental reality was realised, unfortunately for those waiting for belated guidance it had dropped from over $4 to below $2 by the time the fundamentals were available to the masses. (chart below).

TGA should not even be in the same category.

So you are saying that it is ok to ride TGA down to a bottom that you know exists, but you just don't know where.

This is an extract from an article by Radge...
Consider, though, the average fund manager lost between 40 to 50 per cent during 2008. A 50 per cent decline in capital requires a 100 per cent gain just to recover.
Over the (very) long term the stock market has an annual return of about 8.5 per cent which means it will take 3100 days, or over eight years, to get back to where you started.

Back to the topic of TGA, I like the look of it at the moment but it needs to break through the 1.58 to 1.60 area and find support at or above 1.60 before we have a possible trend reversal.

(chart of TIM - click to expand)

 

[Boggo]

Practical application of the "put up or shut up" theory.
Would have preferred to have waited until later in the day to enter but not possible.

Expecting an initial run up to around 1.76 with a typical target of 1.835.

Entry and calcs based on that, $675 at risk (exc brokerage), R/R is 2.2 @ 1.76 and 3.2 @ 1.835.

(click to expand)

 

[tech/a]

Ive joined in as well.
$1.59 stop $1.49
Lot to like about the current chart.

 

[Mammom]

Ive joined in as well.
$1.59 stop $1.49
Lot to like about the current chart.

I don't choose to buy stocks on the basis of a technical analysis but I will sometimes choose to buy into a stock on that basis. What is TGA's recent price movement telling you tech guys? I'd be interested to hear.

Cheers,

Mammom

 

[Pioupiou]

TGA seems to have an upward-edging floor whereat shares get sucked up by buyers. In loose terms, from when the SP closed at $1.39 on 10/05/2012, this floor has been $1.40, $1.45. $1.50, $1.55 and now $1.60. If one adjusted for the recent dividend of 5.5c with the ex-dividend date of 17/06/2012, one could render this as starting at $1.35 (roughly). The way things look, the new floor will soon be $1.65.

There always seem to be a bunch of convent girls selling pathetic quantities at the bottom of the ladder. At about 3:00PM today (Friday 03/08/2012) the gaggle was 11 sellers offering 2,045 shares at $1.605, which averages 186 shares each. If they drop a cent it would only cost them the price of a few lollies. As for Bots, this is what the last few trades then were:

2:47:48 PM - $1.600 - 60 - $96.000
2:47:45 PM - $1.600 - 19 - $30.400
2:45:31 PM - $1.600 - 60 - $96.000
2:43:31 PM - $1.600 - 19 - $30.400
2:43:31 PM - $1.600 - 60 - $96.000

I suspect the SP will end up today at its opening price of $1.610 – perhaps a cent more. Anyhow, I think there are a good few more 5-cent ascending steps ahead.

 

[Pioupiou]

The latest Clime valuation of TGA is $2.21 - see http://au.pfinance.yahoo.com/our-ex...50/undervalued-stock-of-the-week-thorn-group/

A year or two back Clime had higher TGA valuations that never eventuated, so as always, take these guesstimates with a pinch of salt. However, one can with reasonable confidence believe that there is more upside than downside probability at TGA's current SP (closed $1.62 today, 8/8/2012).

 

[tinhat]

The latest Clime valuation of TGA is $2.21 - see http://au.pfinance.yahoo.com/our-ex...50/undervalued-stock-of-the-week-thorn-group/

A year or two back Clime had higher TGA valuations that never eventuated, so as always, take these guesstimates with a pinch of salt. However, one can with reasonable confidence believe that there is more upside than downside probability at TGA's current SP (closed $1.62 today, 8/8/2012).

I hold TGA, but if my portfolio achieved market consensus values from about twelve months go it would be at least 30% higher than it is now. Make that a large pinch of salt.

 

[Pioupiou]

TGA seems to have an upward-edging floor whereat shares get sucked up by buyers. In loose terms, from when the SP closed at $1.39 on 10/05/2012, this floor has been $1.40, $1.45. $1.50, $1.55 and now $1.60. If one adjusted for the recent dividend of 5.5c with the ex-dividend date of 17/06/2012, one could render this as starting at $1.35 (roughly). The way things look, the new floor will soon be $1.65.

. . . I think there are a good few more 5-cent ascending steps ahead.

One can reasonably hold that TGA's SP has made it to the $1.65 step - i.e., there are now buyers to suck up whatever is offered at about $1.65. The next short-term target is $1.70, and then another three 5-cent steps to $1.85, the price of the capital raising in June 2011. I'll opine on the long term trajectory when we get to $1.85, although I expect the SP to continue upward in the same direction as the EPS and dividend per share. My average purchase price is $1.2155 including brokerage, so I am ahead, and I do not expect to see my paper profit whittled back - but black swan events do happen.

 

[Klogg]

Changing the topic slightly from the Share Price...

I don't know if it's just me, but I've noticed a lot more Cash First ads on T.V. recently. I don't usually watch much, but some of the Foxtel channels I've been on recently seem to have them all the time, from around 9-12pm.

Were they always advertising so much?

 

[Pioupiou]

Changing the topic slightly from the Share Price...

I don't know if it's just me, but I've noticed a lot more Cash First ads on T.V. recently. I don't usually watch much, but some of the Foxtel channels I've been on recently seem to have them all the time, from around 9-12pm.

Were they always advertising so much?

I rarely watch TV, so I have never seen a Cashfirst advertisement, but I presume Thorn has increased its advertising to achieve its goal of ramping up Cashfirst as the kernal of its planned Financial Services Division. Also, Thorn rolled out the Cashfirst in measured steps, starting in Tasmania, then South Australia, so if you live in a geographic area only now added to the equation, then any advertising would be new to that area.

I make four points below that relate to this matter of expanding this new division - mainly:

* Thorn had a results-based advertising deal, so it can increase advertising, provided the advertising service supplier is willing. If the tempo has increased you can be sure that the net effect is a positive for TGA and the advertising service supplier. Thorn was not keen to blab about this deal.

* One of the statements made recently was that Cashfirst would leverage off the Thorn outlet network, whereas when I spoke to two outlets months ago, the people there were hardly aware of Cashfirst, because Thorn was then not pushing Cashfirst across its network. It is probably doing so now.

* I recall that I read, or heard, that the target book value for Cashfirst for YE 30/03/2013 is $25M. The value was $17.3 for YE 30/03/2012, so we are looking at a 33.3% expansion. I could not find the source of this information, so my memory may be incorrect.

* Thorn intended to convert Cashfirst into a financial services division under a general manager, and graft additional financial products thereon. This plan may have progressed since it was stated in the May presentation. The logical first step of the new division is to run very hard with the proven Cashfirst initiative, which includes exploiting the performance-based advertising deal, where Thorn has nothing to lose by increasing advertising.

The SP did not take long to move from $1.65 to $1.70 - it did that in one day (today). The next stop is $1.75.

 

[Klogg]

* Thorn had a results-based advertising deal, so it can increase advertising, provided the advertising service supplier is willing. If the tempo has increased you can be sure that the net effect is a positive for TGA and the advertising service supplier. Thorn was not keen to blab about this deal.

PP, may I ask where you found this info?

 

[Pioupiou]

PP, may I ask where you found this info?

Access http://www.brrmedia.com/event/89694...arshall-general-manager-radio-rentals--rentlo and click on slide 18, then listen. John Hughes overtly states that the advertising arrangement is something that TGA does not publicise.

 

[Klogg]

Access http://www.brrmedia.com/event/89694...arshall-general-manager-radio-rentals--rentlo and click on slide 18, then listen. John Hughes overtly states that the advertising arrangement is something that TGA does not publicise.

Ah yeah, I remember listening to that...

Thanks!

 

[RottenValue]

(1) And this has no merit?
(2) How can you use this analogy?

Its dead.
Better invest elsewhere.

Where?
Short indexes.

Maybe not quite dead yet as it hit $1.80 today

But I assume the short indexes are going well so we are all winners

 

[McCoy Pauley]

Share price taken off like a rocket this morning. Up 4%.

 

[craft]

Share price taken off like a rocket this morning. Up 4%.

That’s just the momentum players getting onboard. One well followed service here at ASF had a entry issued for this morning’s open.

 

[Pioupiou]

TGA seems to have an upward-edging floor whereat shares get sucked up by buyers. In loose terms, from when the SP closed at $1.39 on 10/05/2012, this floor has been $1.40, $1.45. $1.50, $1.55 and now $1.60. If one adjusted for the recent dividend of 5.5c with the ex-dividend date of 17/06/2012, one could render this as starting at $1.35 (roughly). The way things look, the new floor will soon be $1.65.

. . . Anyhow, I think there are a good few more 5-cent ascending steps ahead.

Well the Hoover Point moved to $1.65, then $1.70 and I suggest that it has now at $1.75, which means I think it will soon get to $1.80. The Hoover Point is a neologism I have just invented - a share price at which all shares offered are immediately sucked up by a large vacuum cleaner. These prices do not surprise me - the surprise is that the SP ever dropped below $2.00, thus seducing me to buy many more TGA shares, even though I had earlier decided I had too many of them.

The downside of all this joy is that I will one day be shifted from the current no-brainer setting to one where I need to think - plan for a partial exit strategy. At what price do I sell? When the SP was edging above $2.25 just over a year ago, I was too slow to offer some of the shares for sale, and missed out selling any.

One the matter of TA, some chartists suggested earlier that the SP had to break $1.50 to indicate a trend reversal, then $1.60 was mooted as the number. Tech/A jumped in at $1.59, or there about. What is the TA perspective now? As an FA-inclined investor, anything below $2.00 looks worth buying to me if I were looking to invet in TGA, which I am not (no cash slopping about looking for a home).

 

[tech/a]

Ive joined in as well.
$1.59 stop $1.49
Lot to like about the current chart.

Maybe not quite dead yet as it hit $1.80 today

But I assume the short indexes are going well so we are all winners

Selective quoting---had a wife like that once!

Holding above $1.80 is critical.