Tech/A - I have asked you this before and you never answered. But do you live in a tax-free haven where there are no transactional costs or something?
TGA - Thorn Group
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Tech/A - I have asked you this before and you never answered. But do you live in a tax-free haven where there are no transactional costs or something?
tech/a
No Ordinary Duck
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There are 8 transactions say $20ea
Each trade is a separate trade the profit is still running your only closing trades at their buy price.
Off you go then same result different capital base.
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Agreed - and this is something that I believe most would have taken into account (or at least I know I have)
That being said, there is the transition from operational to finance leases that the company is undergoing. Given a larger number of their products are now on finance leases (i.e. furniture, whitegoods), their profits from these products are spread over a number of years (as opposed to other leases) - and Hughes does a good job of explaining this during the recent presentation the management team gave.
Personally, I fail to see how the companies profits will shrink, and at this price, it's all that really matters. I don't know by how much they'll grow, but at a P/E of 7.5, the real question is how can you go wrong?
Had they been trading at P/E ratios similar to MND or CPB, the questions would be completely different.
OK - I follow now. The last 3 of the 5 trades were closed out at break-even less transactional costs. Perhaps you may consider that a long-term value investor may not have bought at $2.00 and $2.20 in the first place because market price did not give an entry point in respect of calculated valuation.
Who averages up? Your assumptions set up straw men that don't exist.
Perhaps it would be possible to determine how many new rental assets they need to purchase just to maintain current NPAT or revenue (and call this capex) and the balance will be included as new investment? Any thoughts? I feel that interpretation of this facet of their business is essential in arriving at a valuation.
So_Cynical
The Contrarian Averager
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Hello...Trend followers average up, its called pyramiding.
http://www.investopedia.com/articles/trading/09/pyramid-trading.asp#axzz1vwTyIbQp
Julia
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tech/a
No Ordinary Duck
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Better to remain silent and thought a fool
Than to open ones mouth and remove all doubt.
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"No comment is a comment" Mossad
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Pyramiding is more for a trader, rather than a value investor.
If I buy TGA @ 1.50 and think its worth 2.00, if it gets to 1.90, I'm not going to buy more unless the companies fundamentals change and give me a valuation far above the previous $2.00 mark.
So Nutmeg's response to averaging up was probably correct for value investors.
If I buy TGA @ 1.50 and think its worth 2.00, if it gets to 1.90, I'm not going to buy more unless the companies fundamentals change and give me a valuation far above the previous $2.00 mark.
So Nutmeg's response to averaging up was probably correct for value investors.
tech/a
No Ordinary Duck
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Whether up or down, if you're following it because of some "perceived" trend, i.e. because everyone else is doing it, what is that if not the surrendering of your capacity for any independent decision making. Talk about the herd instinct!
You lot are the kind who, when your mother asked whether you'd jump off the bridge because all your friends were, would answer yes - and blink!
You lot are the kind who, when your mother asked whether you'd jump off the bridge because all your friends were, would answer yes - and blink!
It's a better company for the same (even less) price. I'm buying more.
The maths
I can’t do an exponential MA on lows so will have to settle for the MA on closes.
I get 14 trades which is pretty good – not many whipsaws (see for example last 18 months CBA for whipsaws that can occur with a MA system) So the parameters suit well how TGA has trended strongly so far.
Tech’s 180 day EMA system:
Starting 100K
Interest while not in market @ 5%pa = $18,817
Grossed up Dividends = $25039
Net Realised Gains = $122,447 (commissions 0.12%)
Tax on Capital gains @ 15% -$18,367; @ 30% $36,734
Buy and Hold:
Grossed Up dividends = $ 68,992
Unrealised Capital Gains. $ $109,607
According to the maths Buy and Hold comes out in front. The facts don’t match your assertion.
Another assertion you always make is that we don't control our risk. Not true - we control it by the analysing the performance of the business. Now some might not act on their business based exits, but is that anymore reason to dismiss fundametal analysis then it is to dismiss TA because some don't abide by their risk management exits?
The next assertion you always seem to make is that Fundamental Investors buy the Highs - well that's just getting plain tiring. Was there the interest in TGA when it was at $2+ that there is now at sub$1.50? Buying low, below what I conservatively value the cash flows at, is all that I'm interested in - If the price goes above a level that won't make my required return I'm not interested.
And the assumptions you make when you lump TGA with companies like PEN or RED are not warrented either. The visabilty of TGA's cash flows compared to gold explorers is chalck and cheese.
The 30% NPAT is just a meaningless headline number.
One important point should be considered when making the comparison you raise. A little while ago JBH was on something like a PE of 20 which means a lot of growth was priced in.
TGA is currently on a PE of less then 8 which means very little if any growth is priced in.
Despite the multiples assigned by the market, in my view TGA always had and still has better long term growth prospects than JBH.
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You make it sound surprising.
What a tiring thread, if only people would stick to what they know.
tech/a
No Ordinary Duck
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Craft
Your like a polititian
Designing arguments to suit your view.
If your never going to sell your holding you won't ever be taxed.
Add a tax component as your valuing the holdings TODAY.
You won't avoid tax.
Craft.
How on earth does any holder of any stock make a profit WITHOUT A TREND?---up.
Carry on
Your like a polititian
Designing arguments to suit your view.
If your never going to sell your holding you won't ever be taxed.
Add a tax component as your valuing the holdings TODAY.
You won't avoid tax.
Craft.
How on earth does any holder of any stock make a profit WITHOUT A TREND?---up.
Carry on
