My point was not so much as whether TA works for traders (or for investors in conjunction with FA), but rather does it work well for a small cap like TGA. TA is in essence applied statistics, and statistical inferences require a reasonable sample to be reliable. If sustained selling by two instos, Perpetual and IOOF, is forcing down the TGA SP, exacerbated by trend-is-my-friend selling, then I am unsure if we can predict at what price they would stop selling.
The problem with the activity of one or two instos, is that it may not even reflect a rational analysis of the stock – selling could simply be policy driven (rebalancing, exiting sectors, raising cash, whatever). TGA would represent a tiny percentage their holdings, so they would not lose much sleep if they dropped a few hundred thousand dollars getting rid of a few million TGAs, which they may have bought for 50 cents. If you have ever had money invested in these instos, you will know how poorly they perform, so one should not presume that savy stock-market gurus have seen something in the annual reports, or patterns in the heavenly bodies, that we poor laymen have missed.
As a non-TA aside, if TGA never grew again, it would then need to hold back less of the EPS to fund growth, and hence by diverting retained earnings to buybacks it could continue to grow its EPS, which should be about 20 cents for YE 31/03/2012. This should allow one to establish a basis for calculating a near-worst-case SP. If you locate the Morning Star metrics for the USA-based Rent-A-Center, you will see that growing EPS via buybacks is what Rent-A-Center has been doing for a few years, and it enjoys a PER of 13. There is no reason to believe that TGA is suddenly going to stop growing after about 75 years of existence – it has such a few items in its range, that it can easily expand by adding a mere handful of new items each year, and dropping less profitable items. Rent-A-Center's main rival in the USA, Aaron's, is still growing, and it enjoys a PER of 18 (relative to YE 31/12/2011). US share prices are over priced generally, so I am not suggesting that TGA should enjoy a similar PER.