TD1 - TALI Digital

[Nathan74]

Re: AVX - Avexa Limited

now a trading halt, pending anouncement about another capital raising.

good bye profits : (


j c

Hey JC, I agree we'll probably see a short term drop in price. But AVX is not far away from an announcement on phase III results. As I'm sure you know, this announcement will either see the share price soar or drop drastically. For those feeling confident that the results will be positive, then this capital raising could be a good opportunity to pick up more shares at a discounted price?

Actually, I was a bit suprised they are having another capital raising. My understanding was that their cash burn reduced considerably once the ATC trials concluded. I'm interested to hear what AVX has to say in their announcement.

 

[jonnycage]

Re: AVX - Avexa Limited

im suprised to that its another raising, but as you said maybe
a positive at a discounted price, time will tell. im just a little
tired of feeding them more cash ...

j c

 

[Purple XS2]

Re: AVX - Avexa Limited

now a trading halt, pending anouncement about another capital raising.

Hooray, I thought, a trading halt! - until .... a minute passed ... and then! Suddenly! a capital raising ..! Hmmmm, very interesting.

One may suspect this has something to do with an institutional buy-in, although as I understand it, Avexa's board has the capacity to issue 15% new shares to any instutional buy-in. (That figure has been valid in the past, but I can't claim any certainty that it's valid at this moment).

But if it were so ... then either this is not an instutional buy-in, and is just raising capital for stuff - which wouldn't be a major surprise - after the Progen merger collapse earlier this year, Avexa had to scramble to get $ from their long-suffering shareholders just to kepp the major project - ATC - alive. I would imagine that their other projects, to wit; Intergrase and the hep-c development, have been starved of funds and attention for yonks.
Got to water the plants sometime, so maybe this is the time.

Or, on the other hand, it could be a big capital raising via an institutional buy-in, greater than 15%.

good bye profits : (


j c

Ahh, look on the bright side j c: Avexa is so entertaining. I can say that now I've at least filled in the hole in my finances after the last 'renouncable rights issue'. From what few words have issued from Avexa today, it's a pretty good bet that this is not another 'renouncable rights issue'.

My guess is a big buy-in.

Or, it could be a case of the ship is about to sink, and this is the last chance of the board to grab cash. Now, I don't believe that to be the case at all - I declare confidence in Avexa's management, at least, more confidence than to suspect them of such perfidy, but it's worth remembering that there's all sorts in this world.

Devil's in the detail, monday it is, I suppose.

Nice weekend, all, especially you, j c :

Regards,
P

 

[jonnycage]

Re: AVX - Avexa Limited

Hooray, I thought, a trading halt! - until .... a minute passed ... and then! Suddenly! a capital raising ..! Hmmmm, very interesting.

One may suspect this has something to do with an institutional buy-in, although as I understand it, Avexa's board has the capacity to issue 15% new shares to any instutional buy-in. (That figure has been valid in the past, but I can't claim any certainty that it's valid at this moment).

But if it were so ... then either this is not an instutional buy-in, and is just raising capital for stuff - which wouldn't be a major surprise - after the Progen merger collapse earlier this year, Avexa had to scramble to get $ from their long-suffering shareholders just to kepp the major project - ATC - alive. I would imagine that their other projects, to wit; Intergrase and the hep-c development, have been starved of funds and attention for yonks.
Got to water the plants sometime, so maybe this is the time.

Or, on the other hand, it could be a big capital raising via an institutional buy-in, greater than 15%.



Ahh, look on the bright side j c: Avexa is so entertaining. I can say that now I've at least filled in the hole in my finances after the last 'renouncable rights issue'. From what few words have issued from Avexa today, it's a pretty good bet that this is not another 'renouncable rights issue'.

My guess is a big buy-in.

Or, it could be a case of the ship is about to sink, and this is the last chance of the board to grab cash. Now, I don't believe that to be the case at all - I declare confidence in Avexa's management, at least, more confidence than to suspect them of such perfidy, but it's worth remembering that there's all sorts in this world.

Devil's in the detail, monday it is, I suppose.

Nice weekend, all, especially you, j c :

Regards,
P

good post! yes time will tell, hopefully for the better! think you covered
the options well

jc

 

[gilbo]

Re: AVX - Avexa Limited

Under the ASX Listing Rules, a listed entity must not issue equity securities that total more than 15% of its fully paid ordinary shares in a 12 month period without the approval of shareholders (7.1).

At Avexa's AGM last week share share issues that happened in the prior 12 months (May 2009 - Rights issue and US Institutional placement) were put to shareholders and approved at the meeting. This means that Avexa may now issue equity securities (up to 15% of the number of securities on issue currently) without prior shareholder approval.

Has there been an announcement that the latest trading halt is a capital raising?

 

[Purple XS2]

Re: AVX - Avexa Limited

Under the ASX Listing Rules, a listed entity must not issue equity securities that total more than 15% of its fully paid ordinary shares in a 12 month period without the approval of shareholders (7.1).

At Avexa's AGM last week share share issues that happened in the prior 12 months (May 2009 - Rights issue and US Institutional placement) were put to shareholders and approved at the meeting. This means that Avexa may now issue equity securities (up to 15% of the number of securities on issue currently) without prior shareholder approval.

Thanks for that detail. Makes the current announcement the more interesting, in that we may assume this is something other than a 15% issue?

Has there been an announcement that the latest trading halt is a capital raising?

Check. From the announcement on the ASX company information page:
"the trading halt is necessary as Avexa expects to make an announcement to the market in relation to a capital raising".

No further detail. Very short and (hopefully) sweet.

Regards,
P.

 

[Purple XS2]

Re: AVX - Avexa Limited

Hey JC, I agree we'll probably see a short term drop in price.

Not wrong there - taken a 3.5 cent drop to 17 cents.

But AVX is not far away from an announcement on phase III results. As I'm sure you know, this announcement will either see the share price soar or drop drastically. For those feeling confident that the results will be positive, then this capital raising could be a good opportunity to pick up more shares at a discounted price?

The optimist in me has decided this is a good thing, keeps the projects other than ATC fed.

Actually, I was a bit surprised they are having another capital raising. My understanding was that their cash burn reduced considerably once the ATC trials concluded. I'm interested to hear what AVX has to say in their announcement.

Today's announcement says very little - Avexa apparently has already raised 8 million through 'institutional and sophisticated investors', and the rest of us monkey's can squabble over another 3 million.

Hey, I'm not sophisticated? Sheesh ...

Anyway, another 60-90 sleeps till the clouds in the crystal ball disperse and we see what we've got here ...

 

[Sdajii]

Re: AVX - Avexa Limited

I agree, the term 'sophisticated investor' is a very condescending term when it is used to refer to one group and exclude another. In many cases it is probably also very inaccurate (though at times spot on).

I made some excellent profits with AVX earlier this year, with many short term trades over about a six month period during their jump from about 6c to about 13c. Then when they jumped up to 14.5c after sitting around at 10-12c for a couple of months I excitedly sold... then watched them quickly climb to the low 20s and felt ill! Oh well, I suppose that's what you get for not sticking in for the long term, and I still made good profits all along the way.

I'm not sure if I will buy back in now. The jump up to around 20c was based on hot air and I suspect they may fall back down to where they were. It seems like strange timing for a SPP since if they waited a while longer they would be able to get more money. 14c is a fairly discounted price from 21c or so, and if they didn't expect it to fall back to 12c or so why raise funds at 14c now? If I could buy back in at 14c I probably would, but only a bad trial result will make that happen, and then you wouldn't want them. I'm not sure if a good announcement would make their price soar now, at one stage they actually dropped significantly after a positive announcement and since they are currently sitting high after a rise of around 80% based on nothing, I can see that happening again.

The drug looks okay, but as we have all been seeing all along, the company is struggling to deal with getting it developed and to market.

 

[Purple XS2]

Re: AVX - Avexa Limited

Disregarding for the moment rumours and theories about who the sophisticated and institutional investors may be (entertaining though those speculations may be), there's a very good reason why the Avexa board would raise the cash they have, at this exact time.

Optimistic as we may be about Atricitibane Phase III results, and subsequent commercialisation, (I admit to a tingle just thinking about it ... must ... stop ... that ...), we all know it's a risk - ATC may sink beneath the waves, and AVX goes to back to the bottom drawer (if we hold on to any shares at all).

Life for the company however must go on - there are of course other products in the pipeline which may yet have a glorious future of their own.

So as a matter of sound business strategy, now - well ahead of the Phase III outcome - is the best time to hedge against a worst case scenario - the worst case being that ATC fails and the company goes belly-up, because money couldn't be raised to keep the pipeline in progress in the event of an ATC failure.

Sure, if ATC goes well, the company will be flush to do anything it wants, but why bet the company's survival on ATC when there's an another way to bet?

This way, Avexa is at least capable of making progress in the second-worst case scenario - that ATC fails but Avexa lives to fight another day.

I'm sure 2nd worse sounds a lot better than worst to the management.

I'm happy with the timing of this capital raising - some people in some forums say all sorts of uncharitable things about the business acumen of this or that board of directors, but on this score I reckon the BOD have shown some nous.

Regards,
P.

 

[Sdajii]

Re: AVX - Avexa Limited

Not a bad point, although it's scarey to think that they are making plans with ATC failure in mind. If ATC fails, even best case scenario isn't looking too pretty compared to even the most modest of hopes in an ATC success scenario, which is what the vast majority of the current SP represents. Interesting times! I am sure I will continue my internal debate as to whether or not to jump back in!

Good luck to all holders

 

[Gurgler]

Re: AVX - Avexa Limited

Hey, I'm not sophisticated? Sheesh ...

Neither am I, but yesterday I received offer docs. Did this happen to anyone else? Perhaps the definition has been expanded!

Offer price 0.14 cents in lots valued from $1000, $3000, $5000 $10000 or $15000. This must be the sophisticated way to buy!

Having participated in the last spo at 7 cents, not sure how I feel about paying double that. Any further thoughts Purple?

 

[Nathan74]

Re: AVX - Avexa Limited

Neither am I, but yesterday I received offer docs. Did this happen to anyone else? Perhaps the definition has been expanded!

Hi Gurgler, AVX are raising 3M in addition to the raising from sophisticated investors. They sent out this offer to all investors on Friday last week.

I don't think anyone could tell you if 14c is a good price (except a few on the inside at AVX). If ATC passes the current phase of trials, then 14c is a very good price IMO. If the news that will be released early in 2010 is bad, then it's possible the price will drop back to where it was earlier this year. ie. There is no doubting it, this offer is HIGH RISK and very speculative.

 

[Sdajii]

Re: AVX - Avexa Limited

Neither am I, but yesterday I received offer docs. Did this happen to anyone else? Perhaps the definition has been expanded!

Offer price 0.14 cents in lots valued from $1000, $3000, $5000 $10000 or $15000. This must be the sophisticated way to buy!

Having participated in the last spo at 7 cents, not sure how I feel about paying double that. Any further thoughts Purple?

Why wouldn't you buy them? Unless ATC fails before you get the chance (possible I suppose) you will probably be able to make at least 10-15% on your money if you just sell them as soon as you're able to. Is it the fear of the share price tumbling down before you get the chance to sell? I sold out when they hit 14.5c and wish I'd hung on until they went up to 18-22c but I certainly wouldn't buy back in at that price just yet. Nothing substantial happened to take them from 12c to 22c so I suppose it's possible at any time we could see them drop down to the 10-12c territory they were at until recently. With a company like this it is obviously very speculative and it's possible we could see them down to 1c by February (eg SPP heavily undersubscribed then ATC knocked back), but I would probably take the punt and buy back in at 14c given the chance.

 

[gilbo]

Re: AVX - Avexa Limited

I would like to point out that the term "Sophisticated investor" is defined in the Corporations Act (s 708(8)). The aim of this section is to allow companies to raise capital without going to the expense of issuing a disclosure document by offering securities to investors who, amongst other requirements, have a minimum net worth and who must purchase at least $500,000 of the offered securities.

The term "sophisticated investor" is thus not a subjective term used to rate an investors performance!

 

[suhm]

Re: AVX - Avexa Limited

Why wouldn't you buy them? Unless ATC fails before you get the chance (possible I suppose) you will probably be able to make at least 10-15% on your money if you just sell them as soon as you're able to. Is it the fear of the share price tumbling down before you get the chance to sell? I sold out when they hit 14.5c and wish I'd hung on until they went up to 18-22c but I certainly wouldn't buy back in at that price just yet. Nothing substantial happened to take them from 12c to 22c so I suppose it's possible at any time we could see them drop down to the 10-12c territory they were at until recently. With a company like this it is obviously very speculative and it's possible we could see them down to 1c by February (eg SPP heavily undersubscribed then ATC knocked back), but I would probably take the punt and buy back in at 14c given the chance.

I bought in when they closed the trials because drug trials are typically only cancelled if the safety committee determine the drug is extremely bad or good, i.e. it would be unethical to continue. At the interim dosing they chose the lower ATC dose which means they weren't as concerned about the effectiveness of the drug with an adequate effect using the lower dosing level. It also means they need to spend less money so should have been able to conserve cash.

I for one have been completely surprised by the cap raising, I thought they would be able to reach the release of phase 3 results without having to raise anymore money. I generally only buy biotech shares if cap raisings are no longer an issue as they love to pass the hat around diluting you into oblivion.

Management may not want to throw the dice on ATC as the sp will tank if ATC fails and dilution would be infinitely larger if they tried to raise money to develop their pipeline. It however decreases my confidence in the commercilisation of ATC as it seems like unnecessary dilution if ATC is such a good product.

It might also make sense if they are rewarding themselves with some cheap stock, I understand greed as a motivation, but i haven't seen any change in director's interest notices.

I want to subscribe and average up but if they only raise 3m i'll probably get a meaningless amount of stock and tie up my cash but if they don't scale back the sp will be hammered.

 

[Nathan74]

Re: AVX - Avexa Limited

I want to subscribe and average up but if they only raise 3m i'll probably get a meaningless amount of stock and tie up my cash but if they don't scale back the sp will be hammered.

Isn't the AVX sp already being hammered? Down around 40% in one month and in a nasty down trend. Based on the current trend, the 14c capital raising offer is starting to look pretty average for those looking for a quick profit.

 

[Sdajii]

Re: AVX - Avexa Limited

Isn't the AVX sp already being hammered? Down around 40% in one month and in a nasty down trend. Based on the current trend, the 14c capital raising offer is starting to look pretty average for those looking for a quick profit.

The capital raising was always going to do that. A large number of people bought into AVX at well under 10c and if they can sell for anything over 15c and use that money to buy back in at 14c, they are very likely to do so if they don't personally have the capital to substantially increase their holdings - a nice, quick, safe way to make some xmas spending money Last time they had a SPP the price dropped too, down to about 8.5c if I remember correctly, and that was only a few months ago.

Good post, suhm. You raise some interesting points. I think what it all boils down to is that if you purchase/hold AVX at the moment you are betting on ATC. Let's face it, if ATC fails, AVX will fall severely. If ATC is a winner, AVX is going to jump higher than the stars once ATC is available at the pharmacy. I don't think you could summarise it more concisely than that, would you agree?

 

[jonnycage]

Re: AVX - Avexa Limited

positive movements today, back over the 17 cent mark, start of another run,
thoughts ? maybe 20 cents next mark

j c

 

[Sdajii]

Re: AVX - Avexa Limited

I wasn't sure how far it would drop in response to fund raising, but when I had the chance to buy at 15.5c I jumped back in. Today was very exciting, close of 17.5c. I don't expect them to drop much in the near future in the absence of any bad news. I could see them jumping into the 20s next week, or sitting around 17c for weeks. All speculation though, and of course, anything could happen.

Early this week I had a fresh look at Avexa's programs other than ATC, and was actually quite surprised that I had dismissed it all as being so insignificant. Some looks very promising, but being so far away from market, it's not likely to do much in the short term.

ATC really does seem like a winner. With so much positive and absolutely no negatives (so far) it seems unlikely the trials were stopped early for bad reasons. If no one else comes up with a drug which makes ATC redundant, the only thing I can see going wrong (other than the results having been severely fudged!) is one of the monster drug companies putting in a bid the shareholder's can't say no to, leaving us diluted to nothing. However, to do that they're going to have to put in a big bid, so worst case scenario is still excellent.



I hold, I am just some anonymous guy on the internets, do your own research, etc

 

[fairshare]

Re: AVX - Avexa Limited

Hi folks. I am new to the world of stock forums and must at the outset disclose I hold a reasonable chunk of Avexa shares (doesn't everyone post cap raising?).

I joined this forum as most brokers whose publications I have access to got a little scared last year and stopped following/commenting on Avexa, and I am keen to continue considering thoughts beyond my own on the stock.

I was recently reading in another forum some posts stating that there have been ‘plenty of HIV antiretroviral drugs that have reached phase 3 trials but not been commercialised’.

Does anyone have any concrete evidence of this?

I cannot find any evidence that it is true.

In the past, Avexa's own literature highlighted that there has not been a case of a drug similar to ATC reaching phase 3 and not proceeding to market. I am guessing both ASIC and APRA would have had cause to clobber Avexa if they had issued misleading information.

I also understand from reading some posts on HotCopper that Baker Young Stockbrokers were recommending Avexa as a good buy in the Adelaide press back in December on the basis that the latest cap raising has bought them sufficient breathing space to negotiate with another potential partner thereby putting much more pressure on Tibotec (J&J) to come to the table with a respectable offer. I did not see this article.

Obviously I hope Baker Youngs thoughts pan out to be true.

Does anyone have any other thoughts or more insight into what baker Young had to say?

Cheers
JR