Syrian Civil War

[qldfrog]

And based on the Figaro, Turkey had been in talk with Iran and Russia to ensure no intervention from either, the attack planned more than a year ago:
In French :"

La Turquie dit avoir convaincu la Russie et l’Iran de ne pas intervenir pendant l’offensive des rebelles​

La Turquie a convaincu la Russie et l’Iran de ne pas intervenir en Syrie pendant l’offensive des rebelles qui a conduit à la chute de Bachar al-Assad, a affirmé vendredi le ministre turc des Affaires étrangères.


«La chose la plus importante à faire était de parler aux Russes et aux Iraniens et d’être sûr qu’ils n’entreraient pas militairement dans l’équation. Nous avons parlé avec les Russes et les Iraniens, ils ont compris», a déclaré Hakan Fidan lors d’un entretien diffusé en direct sur la chaîne privée turque NTV. «Afin qu’il y ait un minimum de pertes en vies humaines ici, nous nous sommes efforcés d’y parvenir sans effusion de sang en poursuivant des négociations ciblées avec deux acteurs importants capables d’utiliser la force», a-t-il poursuivi.

Pour le chef de la diplomatie turque, si Bachar al-Assad avait reçu le soutien de la Russie et de l’Iran, il y avait un risque que «la victoire de l’opposition (...) prenne beaucoup de temps et cela aurait été sanglant». «Mais les Russes et les Iraniens ont vu que ça n’avait plus aucun sens. L’homme dans lequel ils ont investi n’est pas un homme à investir. De plus, les conditions dans la région, ainsi que les conditions mondiales ne sont pas les mêmes», a-t-il précisé.
"
Will try to find an english link
If true, what did Turkey give in the deal?

 

[qldfrog]

Here it is

Turkey Tells Russia, Iran Not to Intervene In Syria Rebel Push

"The most important thing was to talk to the Russians and Iranians to ensure that they didn't enter the equation militarily.

www.ndtv.com

 

[Dona Ferentes]

Assad didn't even tell his chief of staff he was on a plane and outa there.

The Russians are pulling equipment, passing through rebel lines to Latakia airbase, then flying it out lest Ukraine hit their ships after they traverse the Bosporus.

 

[Dona Ferentes]

And based on the Figaro, Turkey had been in talk with Iran and Russia to ensure no intervention from either, the attack planned more than a year ago:

La Turquie dit avoir convaincu la Russie et l’Iran de ne pas intervenir pendant l’offensive des rebelles​

La Turquie a convaincu la Russie et l’Iran de ne pas intervenir en Syrie pendant l’offensive des rebelles qui a conduit à la chute de Bachar al-Assad, a affirmé vendredi le ministre turc des Affaires étrangères.


«La chose la plus importante à faire était de parler aux Russes et aux Iraniens et d’être sûr qu’ils n’entreraient pas militairement dans l’équation. Nous avons parlé avec les Russes et les Iraniens, ils ont compris», a déclaré Hakan Fidan lors d’un entretien diffusé en direct sur la chaîne privée turque NTV. «Afin qu’il y ait un minimum de pertes en vies humaines ici, nous nous sommes efforcés d’y parvenir sans effusion de sang en poursuivant des négociations ciblées avec deux acteurs importants capables d’utiliser la force», a-t-il poursuivi.

Pour le chef de la diplomatie turque, si Bachar al-Assad avait reçu le soutien de la Russie et de l’Iran, il y avait un risque que «la victoire de l’opposition (...) prenne beaucoup de temps et cela aurait été sanglant». «Mais les Russes et les Iraniens ont vu que ça n’avait plus aucun sens. L’homme dans lequel ils ont investi n’est pas un homme à investir. De plus, les conditions dans la région, ainsi que les conditions mondiales ne sont pas les mêmes», a-t-il précisé.
"
Will try to find an english link
If true, what did Turkey give in the deal?

no guarantees ... everyone surprised how quickly things changed.

and no Hezbollah complication.... was that foreseen a year prior? Non

 

[Dona Ferentes]

.
Batista in Cuba fell in 5 days
Thieu left Sth Vietnam for Taiwan 9 days after a decisive battle
Taliban took Kabul after 11 days of battles.
.
...
beyond these general dynamics of government collapse, something else was happening: a military version of what political scientists call a “preference cascade”.

As Timur Kuran, originator of the concept, points out, under repressive regimes (or ostensibly democratic ones that censor dissent) the gap between public pronouncements and private opinions increases over time, until many individuals dissent from the approved narrative and lose faith in institutions that promote it but remain reluctant to reveal their real views. This “preference falsification” creates a deceptive impression of consensus. It can make regimes believe they have more support than they really do, while convincing dissidents they are all alone so there is no point expressing a contrary opinion.

But when an unexpected shock reduces the regime’s power to suppress dissent, people suddenly feel empowered to express their real opinions. They realise these opinions are widely shared and the false consensus evaporates. This can trigger a “preference cascade”, where individuals or institutions suddenly change sides and support for the government collapses overnight.

In particular, the moment when security forces, particularly police, refuse to fire on protesters is often decisive, as seen in the fall of the Suharto government in 1998, the overthrow of Hosni Mubarak in 2011 or the collapse of the East German regime in 1989.

https://www.theaustralian.com.au/inquirer/aleppo-shock-to-hama-huge-leap-forward-triggers-in-syrias-11day-blitz-that-unravelled-assad/news-story/fa2825e1224ef68715722fb62aba96aa

 

[qldfrog]

.
Batista in Cuba fell in 5 days
Thieu left Sth Vietnam for Taiwan 9 days after a decisive battle
Taliban took Kabul after 11 days of battles.
.
...
beyond these general dynamics of government collapse, something else was happening: a military version of what political scientists call a “preference cascade”.

As Timur Kuran, originator of the concept, points out, under repressive regimes (or ostensibly democratic ones that censor dissent) the gap between public pronouncements and private opinions increases over time, until many individuals dissent from the approved narrative and lose faith in institutions that promote it but remain reluctant to reveal their real views. This “preference falsification” creates a deceptive impression of consensus. It can make regimes believe they have more support than they really do, while convincing dissidents they are all alone so there is no point expressing a contrary opinion.

But when an unexpected shock reduces the regime’s power to suppress dissent, people suddenly feel empowered to express their real opinions. They realise these opinions are widely shared and the false consensus evaporates. This can trigger a “preference cascade”, where individuals or institutions suddenly change sides and support for the government collapses overnight.

In particular, the moment when security forces, particularly police, refuse to fire on protesters is often decisive, as seen in the fall of the Suharto government in 1998, the overthrow of Hosni Mubarak in 2011 or the collapse of the East German regime in 1989.

https://www.theaustralian.com.au/inquirer/aleppo-shock-to-hama-huge-leap-forward-triggers-in-syrias-11day-blitz-that-unravelled-assad/news-story/fa2825e1224ef68715722fb62aba96aa

Indeed but was Turkey discussing with Russia /Iran a month ago? Let alone a year ago?
If they did, there was a deal and what was it?

 

[qldfrog]

Before that thread closes and we move to kurd genocide, an OK article from their ABC

Why did Russia let Syria fall? Experts say it was a calculated risk

Vladimir Putin has lost his key anchor of influence in the Middle East with the fall of Bashar al-Assad's regime, but he seemingly knew it was coming and was chatting with new players in the region ahead of his downfall.

www.abc.net.au

Obviously it would be too hard for them to be fully objective and from that article:

I am going to help them:
The unidentified opposition group are the US/Israel supported groups
Then strangely the US base in syria is not there: hint look at the circle protected by the " unidentified" rebels near the iraki/Jordanian border.
For details

https://www.crisisgroup.org/trigger-list/iran-usisrael-trigger-list/flashpoints/al-tanf-syria

Just want to put things straight , and as the rest of the article has some substance, why should their ABC who is able to jump to Hamas defence like a Trotskyist on meth not mention the US presence,? Weird? Maybe because Trump is not yet in,?
That base is getting a bit of action btw, not a sleepy town...

Lets see how this unfold but when power is taken by people proudly showing off their gopro footage of amputees in hospital beds , interrogated and then gunned down with machine guns, not sure there is much good to expect...
Probably last input here for a while.

 

[Knobby22]

Before that thread closes and we move to kurd genocide, an OK article from their ABC

Why did Russia let Syria fall? Experts say it was a calculated risk

Vladimir Putin has lost his key anchor of influence in the Middle East with the fall of Bashar al-Assad's regime, but he seemingly knew it was coming and was chatting with new players in the region ahead of his downfall.

www.abc.net.au

Obviously it would be too hard for them to be fully objective and from that article:
View attachment 189524
I am going to help them:
The unidentified opposition group are the US/Israel supported groups
Then strangely the US base in syria is not there: hint look at the circle protected by the " unidentified" rebels near the iraki/Jordanian border.
For details

https://www.crisisgroup.org/trigger-list/iran-usisrael-trigger-list/flashpoints/al-tanf-syria

Just want to put things straight , and as the rest of the article has some substance, why should their ABC who is able to jump to Hamas defence like a Trotskyist on meth not mention the US presence,? Weird? Maybe because Trump is not yet in,?
That base is getting a bit of action btw, not a sleepy town...

Lets see how this unfold but when power is taken by people proudly showing off their gopro footage of amputees in hospital beds , interrogated and then gunned down with machine guns, not sure there is much good to expect...
Probably last input here for a while.

The ABC do mention it. 900 USA troops. I heard them have a detailed discussion on it . Also read this.

Syria map shows which rebel groups control what now Assad is gone

The collapse of the Assad regime has fragmented Syria's territory, with several armed groups now jostling for control and international players anxious to preserve their regional interests.

www.abc.net.au

 

[qldfrog]

The ABC do mention it. 900 USA troops. I heard them have a detailed discussion on it . Also read this.

Syria map shows which rebel groups control what now Assad is gone

The collapse of the Assad regime has fragmented Syria's territory, with several armed groups now jostling for control and international players anxious to preserve their regional interests.

www.abc.net.au

Hum, they still do not show the US base on the map and as explained, their proxies are the green "unidentified" rebels.
The US are and were deeply involved, and i would actually prefer it that way now that the last secular multi religion regime is gone, even a US puppet is better than a djiadist or a Turkey proxy whose sole purpose is to finish the genocide on kurds and Armenians.

 

[moXJO]

Hum, they still do not show the US base on the map and as explained, their proxies are the green "unidentified" rebels.
The US are and were deeply involved, and i would actually prefer it that way now that the last secular multi religion regime is gone, even a US puppet is better than a djiadist or a Turkey proxy whose sole purpose is to finish the genocide on kurds and Armenians.

I'd argue Israel is the architect US is just the junkyard dog. They are shoring up against all threats. At some point Iran gets special treatment as well.

 

[Knobby22]

Hum, they still do not show the US base on the map and as explained, their proxies are the green "unidentified" rebels.
The US are and were deeply involved, and i would actually prefer it that way now that the last secular multi religion regime is gone, even a US puppet is better than a djiadist or a Turkey proxy whose sole purpose is to finish the genocide on kurds and Armenians.

Unfortunately, the US will probably leave when Trump gets in. The Kurds will be toast.

 

[qldfrog]

Unfortunately, the US will probably leave when Trump gets in. The Kurds will be toast.

They already are sadly:
as not convenient for the west, we do not hear much about it but they are fighting right now in the north of Syria to try to save their autonomous region.
During that time "Biden" sends a billion every second day to Ukraine
Kurds are toast indeed but please do not blame it on Trump....
Better a retreating US than one actively working with, and for the green plague as in Lybia, Syria, Kosovo, Azerbaijan, etc etc

 

[Dona Ferentes]

and yet