Dona Ferentes
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U beat me...My contra pick ( contra is such an apposite word here).
Usually there is a monthly uptick before an inevitable.
<Wot CVN doing?>
SYR - Syrah Resources
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<Wot CVN doing?>
Dona Ferentes
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Quarterly out... holders not impressed ... lowest for a while
Dona Ferentes
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I was waiting for a summary of this lot... don't hold and probably won't. Looks messy. I wonder how the ra-ra crowd at Aus Super are feeling?
"....the Chinese anode market continues to be impacted by high cell and anode inventories. This has kept graphite prices low and only a fraction above it costs of production.
"For the three months, Syrah reported a weighted average sales price of US$688 per tonne and a Balama C1 cost of US$565 per tonne for the month of April. Production was paused in May and June in response to the oversupply of graphite and weak prices.
"As expected, this meant that total production was just 15kt for the quarter, down from 41kt in the previous quarter.
"At the end of the quarter, Syrah had a cash balance of US$101 million, including restricted cash of US$55 million. It also has up to A$150 million (US$102 million) in new convertible notes with AustralianSuper.
"Unfortunately, it is uncertain when production will return to normal levels again. However, management has implemented a new operating mode that will be in action during the current quarter.
"It has identified a way to operate with the following Balama C1 costs:
- US$580 to US$620 per tonne at 10kt production per month.
- US$378 to US$426 per tonne at 20kt production per month.
- Shutdown periods costs of US$4 million per month
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I was a SYRAH speculator back in 2012 when it all took off. Also invested in CSE as a proxy holder.
I made a few bucks but ultimately exited when it became clear they were not able to effectively turn their multi billion dollar graphite reserves into mined product and real dollars. At one stage I believe there was a $6B takeover offer
After reading Dona Ferrentes summary of the Quarterly report I decided to check it out for "old times sake." Sad picture in terms of margins.
One very interesting point however in terms of reducing operating costs and thus improving margins was this report. Seems clear that the economics of solar/battery systems for mining operations are being widely recognised.
Solar & Battery System Completion
Construction of the 11.25 MWp solar photovoltaic array over 19 hectares combined with an 8.5 MW/MWh battery energy
storage system (“Solar & Battery System”) and its integration with the 15MW diesel power generation plant at Balama is
complete. The Solar & Battery System is being operationally tested to confirm continuous supply of power from the system
to site and commercial operation is expected to be achieved in August 2023.
Syrah partnered with Solar Century Africa Limited in engineering, procurement and construction, and commissioning of the
Solar & Battery System. The Solar & Battery System is under a build-own-operate-transfer (“BOOT”) arrangement,
comprising a 10-year operating lease and an operating and maintenance contract with a Mozambique incorporated project
company wholly-owned by CrossBoundary Energy (“CBE”)8, the project financer. Operations and ownership of the Solar &
Battery System will be transferred to Syrah at nil cost at the end of the 10-year BOOT term. The Solar & Battery System
will supply approximately 35% of Balama’s site power requirements, reducing diesel consumption for power generation and
providing associated cost savings. During peak daylight times and/or paused plant operations, the Solar & Battery System
will be able to supply a significantly higher proportion of Balama’s power requirements.
I made a few bucks but ultimately exited when it became clear they were not able to effectively turn their multi billion dollar graphite reserves into mined product and real dollars. At one stage I believe there was a $6B takeover offer
After reading Dona Ferrentes summary of the Quarterly report I decided to check it out for "old times sake." Sad picture in terms of margins.
One very interesting point however in terms of reducing operating costs and thus improving margins was this report. Seems clear that the economics of solar/battery systems for mining operations are being widely recognised.
Solar & Battery System Completion
Construction of the 11.25 MWp solar photovoltaic array over 19 hectares combined with an 8.5 MW/MWh battery energy
storage system (“Solar & Battery System”) and its integration with the 15MW diesel power generation plant at Balama is
complete. The Solar & Battery System is being operationally tested to confirm continuous supply of power from the system
to site and commercial operation is expected to be achieved in August 2023.
Syrah partnered with Solar Century Africa Limited in engineering, procurement and construction, and commissioning of the
Solar & Battery System. The Solar & Battery System is under a build-own-operate-transfer (“BOOT”) arrangement,
comprising a 10-year operating lease and an operating and maintenance contract with a Mozambique incorporated project
company wholly-owned by CrossBoundary Energy (“CBE”)8, the project financer. Operations and ownership of the Solar &
Battery System will be transferred to Syrah at nil cost at the end of the 10-year BOOT term. The Solar & Battery System
will supply approximately 35% of Balama’s site power requirements, reducing diesel consumption for power generation and
providing associated cost savings. During peak daylight times and/or paused plant operations, the Solar & Battery System
will be able to supply a significantly higher proportion of Balama’s power requirements.
Dona Ferentes
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Que? Syrah?
Syrah Resources has risen as high as 67c, now at 64c, or a 12 per cent lift, after securing a further US$150 million ($A234.6 million) for its Balama operation in Mozambique.
The conditional loan comes through the United States International Development Finance Corporation to Syrah’s wholly owned subsidiary, Twigg Exploration and Mining.
The loan will fund feasibility studies for the development of the vanadium resource at Balama and a potential expansion of the site’s tailings storage facility.
Syrah Resources has risen as high as 67c, now at 64c, or a 12 per cent lift, after securing a further US$150 million ($A234.6 million) for its Balama operation in Mozambique.
The conditional loan comes through the United States International Development Finance Corporation to Syrah’s wholly owned subsidiary, Twigg Exploration and Mining.
The loan will fund feasibility studies for the development of the vanadium resource at Balama and a potential expansion of the site’s tailings storage facility.
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It's interesting to see how the race with Graphite , EV anodes et is playing out. Syrah started with the biggest graphite reserves in the world. They were going basically undercut everyone else and dominate Graphite supply forever..
But they are basically just a miner of graphite. End of story.
Then there is Talga which has taken a different route. They have a very high quality mine and have decided to turn their graphite directly into EV anodes . So essentially they are pocketing all the value of the mining and manufacture. They also have the most energy efficent production system.
At this stage Talga are finally actually beginning to build their first commercial factory. This is after years of R and D with Anode designs, pilot projects and developing relationships with buyers and (hopefully) making the whole process as cost effective and value added as possible.
A longer and much more complex process but perhaps ultimately more fruitful.
But they are basically just a miner of graphite. End of story.
Then there is Talga which has taken a different route. They have a very high quality mine and have decided to turn their graphite directly into EV anodes . So essentially they are pocketing all the value of the mining and manufacture. They also have the most energy efficent production system.
At this stage Talga are finally actually beginning to build their first commercial factory. This is after years of R and D with Anode designs, pilot projects and developing relationships with buyers and (hopefully) making the whole process as cost effective and value added as possible.
A longer and much more complex process but perhaps ultimately more fruitful.
Sean K
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Hasn't been a very good year for Shiraz.
For those following / owning, what's the general issue?
Looking at the last financials they were getting $688 a ton at $565 costs, so not a huge margin.
Is it a price of flake graphite thing?
An oversupply in China?
Lower EV production?
Graphite not the flavour of the month?
Synthetic graphite covering need for natural?
Vidalia a problem?
Is there a new tech that's going to replace graphite as the anode?
Thoughts?
When's the turn around?
Shiraz's last statement on the market 18 Jul quarterly:
For those following / owning, what's the general issue?
Looking at the last financials they were getting $688 a ton at $565 costs, so not a huge margin.
Is it a price of flake graphite thing?
An oversupply in China?
Lower EV production?
Graphite not the flavour of the month?
Synthetic graphite covering need for natural?
Vidalia a problem?
Is there a new tech that's going to replace graphite as the anode?
Thoughts?
When's the turn around?
Shiraz's last statement on the market 18 Jul quarterly:
Dona Ferentes
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Dona Ferentes
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there's a puff piece in the AFR, with UBS outing Syrah and Talga as the best tipples out there:.
.
Syrah Resources, the ASX-listed graphite producer, is set for a moment in the sun with demand for the key battery material expected to send spot prices up by more than 50 per cent, according to brokers at UBS.
Stock in Syrah surged nearly 15 per cent following the publication of the investment bank’s analysis on Friday, which estimates electric vehicle automakers will adopt cheaper lithium iron phosphate batteries.
LFP batteries, which requires large amounts of graphite, are a form of lithium-ion battery. This type of battery is not as robust – it requires more frequent charging – but UBS expects automakers will look past this to embrace its cheaper cost and lower carbon profile. Syrah is the largest vertically integrated graphite producer outside China.
Lachlan Shaw, the lead author of the research, forecasts natural graphite prices will fetch $US850 per tonne by the end of the decade, due to a six-fold increase in demand to 6.3 million tonnes by 2030. That’s a 50 per cent recovery from the $US570 per tonne spot price on Friday.
“We think that the market is more focused on spot graphite prices which are down 30 per cent from 2022 highs versus the potential upside ahead from continued EV momentum and potentially increasing natural graphite share,” he wrote in a note to his clients.
UBS anticipates Syrah, which owns the Balama mine in Mozambique, is well-placed, alongside Talga Resources, a pre-revenue explorer hoping to build a graphite mine and battery processing facility in Sweden. “In natural graphite we marginally prefer ASX-listed Talga over Syrah. In a quickly growing market this isn’t a zero-sum game,” Mr Shaw said.
Graphite is one of 50 minerals listed by the United States as being critical to national security and economic growth. The US and its allies are seeking to break from China’s dominance over critical minerals, which are crucial for electronics and defence applications including weapons systems. China supplies about 85 per cent of the world’s battery-grade graphite.
“The extent of substitution with synthetic graphite, where China is dominant, remains the key debate and makes a scarcity pricing moment (like lithium in 2021/22) unlikely,” Mr Shaw observed. “But supply chain localisation makes our expectation of growing [supply] deficits by 2030 in both synthetic and natural graphite feasible.”
Syrah, AustralianSuper’s preferred battery minerals miner, offers one of the few options outside of China for those seeking the material. The strategic importance of the company to the US was revealed this year when the Biden Administration awarded it a loan of $US107 million ($145 million). Syrah plans to use it to more than double the size of its graphite processing plant at Vidalia, in the state of Louisiana.
Syrah has faced strong set-backs this year, halting production in April when graphite prices plummeted due to high inventory in China and weaker sales growth for electric vehicles. Syrah’s shares are down 74.63 per cent from $2.01 since the start of the year.
Syrah’s chief executive Shaun Verner told The Australian Financial Review that operating cost per tonne in “campaign mode” was approximately $600 per tonne. Campaign mode refers to the strategy Syrah has adopted in recent months, where the Balama mine has not resumed full-time production, but makes some opportunistic sales on the back of short bursts of production.
On Monday Syrah told the ASX that some graphite sales and shipments were completed in the three months to September 30, with details of the exact volumes to be announced on October 17.
"That cost decreas[es] to below $400 per tonne once Balama operates at full capacity... Reset shipping costs and increasing production costs in China are improving our competitiveness in supply,” he said. “A return to continuous operation at Balama will be dependent on consistent demand improvement.”
Talga’s share rose 1.27 per cent to $1.20 on Friday. The explorer is aiming to develop a vertically integrated battery facility in Sweden, which will process output from its proposed nearby mine in the country’s north.
“We like Talga due to its geographical proximity to Europe’s high growth, emerging battery and EV supply chain as well as the continent’s building support for the regionalisation of critical supply trains,” Mr Shaw said.
.
Graphite to surge, Syrah and Talga the best bet for investors: UBS
Syrah Resources, the ASX-listed graphite producer, is set for a moment in the sun with demand for the key battery material expected to send spot prices up by more than 50 per cent, according to brokers at UBS.
Stock in Syrah surged nearly 15 per cent following the publication of the investment bank’s analysis on Friday, which estimates electric vehicle automakers will adopt cheaper lithium iron phosphate batteries.
LFP batteries, which requires large amounts of graphite, are a form of lithium-ion battery. This type of battery is not as robust – it requires more frequent charging – but UBS expects automakers will look past this to embrace its cheaper cost and lower carbon profile. Syrah is the largest vertically integrated graphite producer outside China.
Lachlan Shaw, the lead author of the research, forecasts natural graphite prices will fetch $US850 per tonne by the end of the decade, due to a six-fold increase in demand to 6.3 million tonnes by 2030. That’s a 50 per cent recovery from the $US570 per tonne spot price on Friday.
“We think that the market is more focused on spot graphite prices which are down 30 per cent from 2022 highs versus the potential upside ahead from continued EV momentum and potentially increasing natural graphite share,” he wrote in a note to his clients.
UBS anticipates Syrah, which owns the Balama mine in Mozambique, is well-placed, alongside Talga Resources, a pre-revenue explorer hoping to build a graphite mine and battery processing facility in Sweden. “In natural graphite we marginally prefer ASX-listed Talga over Syrah. In a quickly growing market this isn’t a zero-sum game,” Mr Shaw said.
Graphite is one of 50 minerals listed by the United States as being critical to national security and economic growth. The US and its allies are seeking to break from China’s dominance over critical minerals, which are crucial for electronics and defence applications including weapons systems. China supplies about 85 per cent of the world’s battery-grade graphite.
“The extent of substitution with synthetic graphite, where China is dominant, remains the key debate and makes a scarcity pricing moment (like lithium in 2021/22) unlikely,” Mr Shaw observed. “But supply chain localisation makes our expectation of growing [supply] deficits by 2030 in both synthetic and natural graphite feasible.”
Syrah, AustralianSuper’s preferred battery minerals miner, offers one of the few options outside of China for those seeking the material. The strategic importance of the company to the US was revealed this year when the Biden Administration awarded it a loan of $US107 million ($145 million). Syrah plans to use it to more than double the size of its graphite processing plant at Vidalia, in the state of Louisiana.
Syrah has faced strong set-backs this year, halting production in April when graphite prices plummeted due to high inventory in China and weaker sales growth for electric vehicles. Syrah’s shares are down 74.63 per cent from $2.01 since the start of the year.
Syrah’s chief executive Shaun Verner told The Australian Financial Review that operating cost per tonne in “campaign mode” was approximately $600 per tonne. Campaign mode refers to the strategy Syrah has adopted in recent months, where the Balama mine has not resumed full-time production, but makes some opportunistic sales on the back of short bursts of production.
On Monday Syrah told the ASX that some graphite sales and shipments were completed in the three months to September 30, with details of the exact volumes to be announced on October 17.
"That cost decreas[es] to below $400 per tonne once Balama operates at full capacity... Reset shipping costs and increasing production costs in China are improving our competitiveness in supply,” he said. “A return to continuous operation at Balama will be dependent on consistent demand improvement.”
Talga’s share rose 1.27 per cent to $1.20 on Friday. The explorer is aiming to develop a vertically integrated battery facility in Sweden, which will process output from its proposed nearby mine in the country’s north.
“We like Talga due to its geographical proximity to Europe’s high growth, emerging battery and EV supply chain as well as the continent’s building support for the regionalisation of critical supply trains,” Mr Shaw said.
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Syrah has jumped 20% today. Almost certainly on the back of Chinas decision to place export controls on graphite .
From Talga forum
www.reuters.com
From Talga forum
China Restricts Graphite Exports
China announced export controls on natural and synthetic graphite last Friday, citing national and supply security. Here are the key takeaways from Benchmark Minerals Intelligence:- "China dominates graphite mining, processing, and anode production, and is set to produce 67% of global natural graphite this year."
- "In the short term the policy could make it more difficult for overseas companies to buy Chinese graphite feedstock products."
- "Longer term, however, the policy could accelerate a build-out of the battery anode supply chain in the West."
China, world's top graphite producer, tightens exports of key battery material
China said on Friday it will require export permits for some graphite products to protect national security, springing a surprise with another bid to control critical mineral supply in response to challenges over its global manufacturing dominance.
Dona Ferentes
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can't say we weren't tipped off ... haha
Sean K
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What actually happened on the 20th, and why aren't my graphite stocks running to the moon?
Surely not just the China news?
Surely not just the China news?
Sdajii
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What actually happened on the 20th, and why aren't my graphite stocks running to the moon?
Surely not just the China news?
View attachment 164462
It is just the China news, the timing wasn't coincidence. I bought a small amount in the 50s, wishing I'd bought more. SYR is in a brilliant position for this news. Sentiment was in the toilet, long, steady decline in price over the last 12 months leaving it very cheap, suddenly there's a complete reversal of sentiment with people who've never heard of SYR or been interested in graphite scrambling to invest in it, and SYR is quietly sitting there with a massive non Chinese graphite resource.
There's a gap in the high 80s which should get filled this week and another at $1.41 which probably has a good chance in the short to medium term.
I first held SYR over 10 years ago, traded it a couple of times breaking even, once more recently where I lost some, I think I'll do well this time (though on a small amount unfortunately).
Dona Ferentes
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A onde vais?
another 20 per cent up today following yesterday's rise. ...renewed interest seems to be sustained since the Chinese policy change.
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Dona Ferentes
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SYR got to 95c on sustained buying, then at midday turned tail and ran back down again. .. now around 71c
Sean K
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Dona Ferentes
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well, it did double since late last week, so I'd expect a few stale holders to be saying, thanks for the liquidity.
Sdajii
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Anything which doubles in a two session timeframe is going to have a pullback. Anyone who was wanting to sell will sell when it happens, and loose-handed traders will dump as soon as there's weakness, which means that anyone else watching closely is also going to dump because they know the pullback is inevitable and that exacerbates the pullback/makes it a self-fulfilling prophesy.
It's difficult to say where this will go in the next session, week and month, but a pullback at some stage was inevitable. I was watching closely until I went to lunch with some friends and while socialising it dropped from the 90s to 60s and I missed the opportunity. Oops. Oh well, we'll see what happens tomorrow, at least I'm still well in the green.
It's difficult to say where this will go in the next session, week and month, but a pullback at some stage was inevitable. I was watching closely until I went to lunch with some friends and while socialising it dropped from the 90s to 60s and I missed the opportunity. Oops. Oh well, we'll see what happens tomorrow, at least I'm still well in the green.
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October was highest volume month in stock's all time history. Still doesn't turn a profit though after 4 years of sales. James Cooper of 'fat taiis commodities' has been trying to make graphite makers and developers into a meme stock sector after lithium and can claim some predictive success after last few weeks or so. The only graphite stock I sort of follow is RNU and it also had a positive Oct candle although without pronounced volume.
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