Swine flu pandemic fears

[Timmy]

Australia reports 11th swine flu-related death

23 hours ago

11 deaths as of 23 hours ago.

So at 1 in 200 that means there are 2200 in Australia with the pig flu?

I reckon there's more than that with pig flu in my suburb.

 

[Julia]

No, it is not mild, and your attitude is very worrying. The swine flu has a mortality rate of 0.5%; i.e. 1 in 200 people with the virus will die. While that's "mild" compared to the Spanish Flu (2.5%, 1 in 40) it's much worse than the common flu (0.1%, 1 in 1000).

As Timmy has suggested, you need to back up your claims with some evidence. So far there is no basis for suggesting one in 200 people who contract Swine Flu in Australia will die. We are well into the winter and so far 11 people have died, all of whom have been reported as having underlying pathology. The last report I read advised that around 3500 people nationwide have contracted the virus.

And the reason it's so serious is because it is now a pandemic. That means the virus is widespread with confirmed cases for over 100,000 people, and realistically will affect millions of people.

So what? The common cold could probably also be considered a pandemic in that it affects millions of people globally. Until I see confirmed evidence that swine flu is going to be a whole lot more serious than the ordinary influenza which afflicts thousands every year, I decline to panic.

And that is simply not true. I've seen many people repeat that myth, maybe for comfort, but it's not supported by the facts. Young healthy adults are spending weeks on breathing machines... they are the ones who *don't* die.

Again, you need to post some quantitative and qualitative evidence of this.

Google for swine-flu-hits-young-healthy-adults-hard. I can't post links or I'd link directly.

Why can't you post links? It's not difficult.
I'm sure any moderator would be happy to help if you lack the capacity to do this for some reason, although I can't think why you couldn't.

Really? Because if anything I'd say the opposite is true. People are entirely laxidasical about the swine flu. I see very few people taking precautions. I see far more people saying "it's not that serious" or "it only affects old and sick people" or "I know somebody who got it and they're fine".

And if they are, that's because that is the experience of most of us so far, and further it's what is being advised by the Federal Health Minister.

Your attitude is the real danger. Especially so when someone catches swine flu and plays the "soldier-on" card by going to work, sniffling and sneezing, and making everyone else sick. Imagine you are in an office block and 1 in 200 people died. There are 3000 people in my office block; now imagine 15 of them dead. I'm not sure that would be viewed as just "hysteria".

Now on this, I completely agree with you. But then I think anyone with a nasty cold should refrain from mixing it up in public. But such an opinion would be widely regarded as unreasonably cautious.
I was buying fruit a couple of days ago, didn't bag the grapefruit.
The girl at the checkout sneezed mightily over everything, wiped her nose with her hand and proceeded to handle the grapefruit and then the computer screen! I considered protesting, but didn't think it would be effective.
Next time I'm there I might have a word to her boss.

The death rate from the 1918 pandemic was actually 20%; far higher than the mortality rate from the virus itself.

And this has already been addressed. In those days the secondary bacterial infection could not be treated as penicillin had not been invented.
Hence people died from pneumonia, something which happens much less these days.

You should treat the swine flu with appropriate seriousness. Pretending it's simply a windup, or hysteria, is how you can make the problem worse. At the moment it's entirely treatable if people take caution (e.g. stay home if you're sick, cover your mouth when you sneeze, wash your hands). But it people start believing it's not serious, that's when people start dying.

Thank you for your advice. However, I shall continue to treat swine flu as I see appropriate, and so far that is that it's a strain of influenza which is no worse than the ordinary Influenza which afflicts thousands every year.
No publicity or hysteria has in recent years been attached to that.

 

[Smurf1976]

Well I have flu. Not sure if it's Swine or some other type but I've been through all the usual flu symptoms over the past few days. Certainly seems to be flu and not just a cold judging by everything being sore etc.

I've stayed home to avoid spreading it around but didn't go to a doctor. Probably should have, but everything I've read says swine is really just another strain of flu so should only be a problem if you've got some other issues already. So I'll never know if it was swine flu or not but it was damn horrible whatever it was.

Thankfully it's now getting better.

 

[Julia]

Well I have flu. Not sure if it's Swine or some other type but I've been through all the usual flu symptoms over the past few days.

I've stayed home to avoid spreading it around but didn't go to a doctor (probably should have...) so I'll never know if it was swine flu or not. Damn horrible whatever it was though.

Thankfully it's now getting better.

Hope you're completely recovered soon, Smurf.

The fact that you were sensible enough to stay home and are recovering means you won't be contributing to statistics, either of swine flu or ordinary flu.
Most people will be the same, now that the initial hysteria has died down.
So I guess we have to regard the stats about who has whatever strain of virus as guesswork at best.

 

[nhand42]

As Timmy has suggested, you need to back up your claims with some evidence.

As I said, I can't post links, because my account is not enabled to do so. The deprecating remarks weren't necessary.

The CDC has info regarding the mortality rate. The Google search I provided has information about young healthy adults dying from H1N1. Healthy young adults have contracted and died from swine flu within 24 hours.

The CDC information is even more revealing, because although normal flu is mostly dangerous to over 65s (90% of deaths), H1N1 is mostly dangerous to under-65s. It's completely unlike normal influenza.

The WHO has additional information. Once again, I can't link directly, if I try the forums reject my post. However if you go to the WHO website (who dot int) and click on the latest update, they have the confirmed deaths. The sum total at the end of the table:

Confirmed cases: 94512 Confirmed deaths: 429

That's a mortality rate of 0.45%. That's *with* penicillin to treat secondary symptoms. And although it's tempting to think "but what about unreported cases" don't think too hard, because the WHO and CDC have used more complex analysis that produces the same rate.

Thank you for your advice. However, I shall continue to treat swine flu as I see appropriate, and so far that is that it's a strain of influenza which is no worse than the ordinary Influenza which afflicts thousands every year.

And that's what's worrying.

 

[Prospector]

As I said, I can't post links, because my account is not enabled to do so.

That's weird, I didnt know there were different levels of membership. I havent read of any 'healthy young adults' dying of swine flu. That would be worrying but I dont think it is the case. That was always the fear, the reality has proven different.

Why is it worrying for people to treat swine flu as the normal seasonal flu? For people that means staying home in bed and isolation if possible. Are you saying that is wrong? Of course, some people treat the common cold like flu, but for those who have had the seasonal flu, there is no way you can get out of bed in under a week. But swine flu isnt even as nasty as that.

 

[Timmy]

The WHO has additional information. Once again, I can't link directly, if I try the forums reject my post. However if you go to the WHO website (who dot int) and click on the latest update,

Unfortunately this shows you really have no idea.

The latest update on this site, at
http://www.who.int/csr/don/2009_07_06/en/index.html
shows Australia has 5298 cases.

What a ridiculous figure.

Has the news that Victoria has now completely stopped testing escaped you? Stopped testing about a month ago. For someone who purports to be knowledgeable about this you either aren't, or for some reason are being deceptive or obtuse.

Have a look at the cases in the USA; 34,000 (actually 33,902). Again, rubbish figures. The CDC puts the number of cases in the US at 1,000,000. Go and look it up.

The only basis you could possibly have for saying the WHO figures are even remotely in the ball park is that the virus is not very contagious at all ... right?

Stop parroting garbage figures and think. Its the best defence against unwarranted panic.

 

[nhand42]

The only basis you could possibly have for saying the WHO figures are even remotely in the ball park is that the virus is not very contagious at all ... right?

The actual basis is that the WHO figures are Confirmed Cases, which is why I mentioned that explicitly, whereas the CDC uses projections.

What a ridiculous figure... Again, rubbish figures... Stop parroting garbage figures and think.

Those are figures from the WHO. If they're garbage then you should contact them immediately and let them know.

PS: are you the local ITG?

 

[Timmy]

The actual basis is that the WHO figures are Confirmed Cases, which is why I mentioned that explicitly, whereas the CDC uses projections.

You are shopping around a 0.5% mortality rate.
This is patently absurd.

Again, I say to you, stop parroting rubbish and think.

Those are figures from the WHO. If they're garbage then you should contact them immediately and let them know.

PS: are you the local ITG?

The WHO is big and ugly enough to find out the facts for themselves.
What's ITG?

 

[nhand42]

What's ITG?

Internet Tough Guy. All bluster, no substance.

 

[nhand42]

The WHO is big and ugly enough to find out the facts for themselves.

That's right. They have. You said their facts are rubbish.

All bluster, no substance.

 

[nunthewiser]

lol funny stuff

thankyou

 

[Timmy]

Internet Tough Guy. All bluster, no substance.

I think you will find in psychological terms this is referred to as projection.
Look that up too.

As is so often the case those who make claims that are absurd very quickly go from rational to rationalising. This is the case here.

 

[Prospector]

So calling someone on facts means you are an ITG? And I reckon if your user name is Timmy then bullying is not one of your Modus operandi. And I dont think he is the one doing the bluster.

The swine flu is widespread now, way more than the stated 5000 cases in Oz yet the death rate is extremely low and only in compromised people; sad for their families but not unexpected; hell I am more worried about the road toll than dying from swine flu.

I am sure you can post your links. Would be good to see them.

 

[Happy]

What I don't understand is why they add the tally continuously?

Surely those who finished quarantine are not threat any longer to spread the disease.
Numbers look impressive, but aren't they bit misleading?

But being impressive they probably give better credibility to devoting so many resources and attention.

 

[spooly74]

National case update 10/7/09

At noon today Australia has 7933 confirmed cases of Pandemic (H1N1) 2009 virus, an increase of 643 cases since noon yesterday. The total number of Australian deaths associated with Pandemic (H1N1) 2009 is currently eighteen, with eleven reported in Victoria, one in Western Australia, one in South Australia, one in Northern Territory, one in Tasmania and three in New South Wales.

The national breakdown of cases is: ACT 309, NSW 1858, NT 484, Qld 1776, SA 860, Tas 137, Vic 2067, WA 442.

Hospitalisations

There are currently 111 people in hospital around Australia with Pandemic (H1N1) 2009 and 30 of these are in Intensive Care Units.

ICU admissions: Of the 30 people currently in Intensive Care Units, 6 of these are in NSW, 16 in Victoria, 6 in Queensland, 1 in South Australia and 1 in Western Australia.

The total number of hospitalisations in Australia since Pandemic (H1N1) 2009 was identified is 853.
http://www.healthemergency.gov.au/in...s-12july09.htm

Globally, the targeted age groups are mostly children and relatively young adults.
The majority of fatalties are under 65 and most are relatively healthy (Over 50% in the US), again, certainly not associated with seasonal flu.

The Swine has lasted long after the end of seasonal flu season in the northern hemisphere, and is crowding out seasonal flu in the southern hemisphere.

Fatalities are on the rise worldwide.

This still has significant hazard potential globally. Nothing has changed my opinion.

 

[Aussiejeff]

NSW update...

HEALTH experts fear the state's swine flu death toll could soar with six young, healthy people in Sydney fighting for their lives on last-resort cardiac bypass machines because their lungs are too damaged or diseased for regular mechanical ventilation.

The surge in the number of people with swine flu needing life-saving treatment has forced NSW Health to consider closing elective surgery at some big hospitals to allow staff to redirect resources.

http://www.smh.com.au/national/swine-flu-warning-as-deaths-increase-20090713-diti.html

Just a thought on the back of that news... I guess when we talk about comparisons with the massive death toll from the Spanish flu back in the 20's and smugly consider ourselves not in any danger at all with this one, we need to remember that back then...

- there were no flu vaccines or alternative drug treatments (Tamiflu, Relenza et all).

- there was no widespread availability of hi-tech ventilation units to save lives until the crisis passed (eg - see todays story).

- there was no widespread availability of portable oxygenation units etc.

- the general medical care available back then was paltry compared to today.

So, I wonder how many fatalities back then would have been saved if they were living in today's medical hi-tech world? Most of those millions that perished?

Or, to put it another way, if you went back in a time machine and dropped today's version of swine flu onto the unsuspecting '20's population instead of the "Spanish flu" would today's swine flu variant end up causing as many fatalities as what the "Spanish" version actually ended up causing?

Hmmm.



aj

 

[Prospector]

Just a thought on the back of that news... I guess when we talk about comparisons with the massive death toll from the Spanish flu back in the 20's and smugly consider ourselves not in any danger at all with this one......

Or, to put it another way, if you went back in a time machine and dropped today's version of swine flu onto the unsuspecting '20's population instead of the "Spanish flu" would today's swine flu variant end up causing as many fatalities as what the "Spanish" version actually ended up causing?

aj

But that is exactly the point that Julia and I have tried to make all along. We are simply not living in the 1900's; we have not just come off fighting an intolerable war, we do have penicillin etc etc. I dont think our comments came from smugness that we are better than the times of the Spanish flu, but we certainly are 'better placed' to fight the complications.

 

[Calliope]

http://www.smh.com.au/world/swine-flu-healthy-chloe-6--dies-20090714-djng.html

Swine flu: 'healthy' Chloe, 6, dies

Parents in Britain have been urged not to panic after swine flu apparently claimed the life of a fit six-year-old girl.

Chloe Buckley, from west London - who would have been seven on Friday - was described as "perfectly healthy" in the days before she started feeling ill.

She saw her doctor last Wednesday, complained of flu-like symptoms and died the following day.

Speaking after news of Chloe's death, Simon Tanner, regional director of public health for London, said: "The Health Protection Agency is now seeing large numbers of people with the virus. This will probably not be the last death."

Nearly 10,000 Britons have been confirmed as suffering from swine flu but hundreds of thousands more are feared to have the virus.

The British Government has given warning that the number of cases could rise to 100,000 a day by the end of next month and eventually affect one in two people.

A 64 year old doctor also died. It's spreading across all ages, apparently.

 

[Surfer35]

Let's just hope this thing mutates faster than medicine can keep it in check. It's just what the planet needs. A nice pandemic to cut some of our numbers back since we appear too stupid to do it ourselves.

It's not going to be nice for those personally affected by it, but it's about time nature gave us the bitchslap we need.