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Speculative Stock Portfolio

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Added the lighting specialist that is in an expansion growth spurt at the moment, namely Beacon Lighting Group Ltd (BLX). This is not the average lighting isle in the local hardware store, they specialise in all types of lighting from ultra-modern latest designs to the Classique vintage designs that are coming back in vouge as well as ceiling fans with advanced designs that retract the fan blades (when not in use) within a light fitting amongst other innovations:



Retail environment is tough in Australia, but these guys are battling it head on in two fronts: (1) with the use of social media platforms:


(2) international expansion spree:

Impressed with management's execution as well of late: jumping on opportunities and cutting losses early and promptly by exiting unprofitable ventures. Here is a case study where they have renovated and re-purposed for a profit. It's like renovating and re-structuring your rental property on a much bigger commercial scale, doubling the asset value. But in this case done radically quick, all within this year:


Stock offers a decent 3.7% steady dividend yield:


Open Portfolio:
 
Have been researching on some of the likely global themes of the year ahead and I came across several sources that point to the likelihood of a supply crunch in Rare Earths (RE's) this year. On our local share market I think there is a some hidden evidence for this by the fact that the US military secured a supply agreement with the larger Rare Earth play Lynas Corporation Ltd (LYC) just a few days ago.

But I am interested in the smaller plays that could present larger % gains if it goes your way. So a couple of stocks has come to my attention that are well advanced in their projects in terms of getting them to production. First is a Rare Earth play that has already been in this portfolio Northern Minerals Ltd (NTU). Second play offers a bit more protection in my opinion as it is already producing cash flow with a Gold mining operation as well as currently Pilot testing it's Rare Earth project. So that was the company that was bought for this portfolio, namely Alkane Resources Limited (ALK).

Alkane's Tomingley Gold operation is already producing cash for the company. It also looks like Alkane has recently hit a big deposit with the drilling carried out recently:



The Dubbo Rare Earth project that is owned by Alkane is currently undergoing Pilot testing:



… and it's economics on a commercial scale are being worked out using the results:



Projects such as this would likely to be in high demand if there is supply disruptions due to US/China trade tensions as China is the world's largest and majority supplier of Rare Earths. Could the US military move be a defensive tactic for US to establish RE supplies outside of China ? Also if the prices rise in Rare Earth elements as a result of demand from ever advancing technology such as Electric Vehicles, the market could start re-rating these type of advanced RE projects.

Open Portfolio:
 
Last edited:
fergee said:
aus_trader very interesting thanks for that. Im punting GGG for the 2020 stock comp but will add ALK to my RE watch list as well.
Click to expand...

I have also considered GGG in my research. Yes definitely a Rare Earth play with good numbers, perhaps not as confident in the go-ahead for me as it is in a location that is outside of Australia. Especially in Greenland, to my mind that will be harder to get approval in such a location with such lush greenery and such remoteness.

But I'll be watching Greenland Minerals Limited (GGG) progress as well, as I often underestimate what is capable and end up missing big opportunities.
 
With the weak retail environment and stock share price decreasing it was decided to let go of Beacon Lighting Group Ltd (BLX).

Closed:


A good thread worth reading about the current state of the retail environment is:
Retail Wreckage

I think I also based my decision to sell based on information on that thread
 
Could be selling at the bottom of the Oil cycle, but decided to let go of the two Oil/Gas stocks due to relentless slide in the price of crude:



Both Woodside Petroleum Limited (WPL) and Beach Energy Ltd (BPT) has been sold and closed in this portfolio.

Closed Oil/Gas Positions:
 
barney said:
At least there is a bit of 'green' in there Aus ... more than I can say for my current situation
Click to expand...

Thanks barney. It was a 'sea of red' when I looked at the screen today, both current few holdings and watchlist stocks. So another stock in the holdings got washed off from the spec portfolio due to the deluge:


Closed:


Yes it's green, but a lot of (nearly half of) open profits have evaporated. The ALK position was up +60% just a few days ago.
 
And wake up to a situation where a lot of stocks are back near on their price of a year ago... de ja Vue.
For what it's worth... I noticed stocks that don't generally get actively traded, instos algos etc, didn't get hit as hard.
There's lots of bargains out there ATM, but I suspect that may be on and off for a while.
Nasdaq finished last night at 0.888 points up... volatile markets...

F.Rock
 
Out of the two stocks kept in the portfolio, one has succumbed to the huge selloff today. Mincor Resources NL (MCR) was sold this afternoon for a small loss having given back a lot of open profits.



Only stock remaining is Bingo Industries Ltd (BIN) in this portfolio. I would think it's the type of stock that could weather a recession as garbage still needs to be collected and Australia's recycling problem is far from solved. But that's just my opinion, if the market has other ideas, I may have to pull the trigger to empty the last clinger in the portfolio.

Testing times, apart from the market sell down, did anyone notice the horrendous volatility in the Aussie Dollar today ?

 
I have only 3 stocks in the portfolio.
Nearly half in cash.
Drum roll please,
BBUS
BBOZ
FAU
FAU... the long term speculative gold play that seems to be slowly behaving... I won't be selling until it pops, if it pops and hasn't had a full recovery from recent market dump.

BBOZ and BBUS are bear ETF's so expecting/ looking for downtrend.

The look on Trump's face says it all.
It looks like, "I can't save the economy from the depths, and might lose the election. Time to feather my own interests."

Further, have suspected that some of the US stimulus is reaching or at least influencing our markets. That may dry up... or increase ? as the US braces for earnings impacts over the next months.
Am keenly watching BNPL & diversified financial stocks as several climbed 200 ~300% up after recent lows. I missed that boat mostly but managed a partial 95% profit from PGL.

F.Rock
 
I have also missed the BNPL rally that came way too fast to my liking. When something is going up so fast I am usually on the fence as I don't like chasing rocketing stock prices.

Have been doing some stock research in the background and I may tip toe back into the market or play defensive if it looks like dropping back from the current counter rally.

I may even initiate BBUS and/or BEAR trades if it looks like another sell down gets underway. I prefer less leveraged ETFs if available because it's less painful to hold on to your position if the market has a bit of a volatility tantrum before it goes your way. By the way these ETFs are not for long term holding as they lose value over time, so they are good for getting in and out quickly if you want to bet that the market is going to fall in the short to mid term.

I hold QAU and MNRS to play the Gold upside. They are held and further added to as long term positions in my rarely updated Medium/Longer Term Stock Portfolio. Don't have the nerve to play a spec explorer like FAU. I used to jump all over these type of plays in the past as they can pop if there is any new discoveries or resource upgrades. But now tend to go with the mid-tier and proven smaller caps.
 
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