SLA - Solagran Limited

[pacer]

Salty, you silly, boy, I still hold all my NWR shares, don't blame me if it all falls over for you......hope you're still holding some nwr, news is supposed to be due for that one soon too, and wouldn't surprise me if it was tomorrow....lol

Either way I hope you do well, just wish I had bought more SLA earlier, when I found them while flicking through the etrade news ticker, 4 months ago....now that's a great way to find good stocks! especialy if you have a CFD account because news is not 20 mins delayed, and are free to view, unlike some providers. The cost of my cfd account has been covered easily, in profits from Small caps just doing this, but is free if I trade 10 times on cfd's per month anyway....happy?....you bet.

A retrace is certainly on the cards, but I don't realy care because I bought to hold, and have done alot of reading on this and been in contact with management aswell.....even if it retraces a bit it will be a star performer in years to come, IMO.

retrace to 30c so I can get some more please...lol

 

[davepan]

pacer,

I've been thinking that it is due for a retrace all week now however it hasn't looked like turning around yet!

Its continued to make higher highs every single day for nearly 3 weeks now!!

When will this all end?

What are your views on a potential share price for SLA in a year or two if all goes well for them?

 

[pacer]

$5-10 in a year or two,....But in the short term...$1 after Swinborne, and $2 after Ropren is approved certainly isn't out of the question, which both should be out by the end of march....only my opinion, as we just have to wait for all the trials they have lined up (and ones they will obviously think of in the future) to be completed.
15 bioeffectives, and all can be used in various ways to treat/prevent so may problems, could mean a weathy few who get in early.

How long is a pice of string?.......the market decides the value of shares, not me.

The Directors shares are now out of escrow as the price stayed above 50c, and are those guys millionares now!!!!!.....this means they can now sell shares as they wish, but they have said they wont be selling any time soon, which is good because the price stays up and there is less chance of big pharma making an early hostile takeover bid, when I'd rather be holding this one for years to come.

I don't trade shares anymore I buy them for best future value, but I do trade CFD's and use the profits to buy shares.

DYOR.......

 

[pacer]

As expected a speeding ticket has been issued, BUT the way in which the reply has been worded just brings more attention to our beloved Solagran, and just reaffirms it's great potential.

Just one respose was this.....


The primary purpose in conducting the Swinburne trials was to provide
confirmation in Australia of the results of trials conducted previously in St
Petersburg. However, in Professor Stough’s preliminary report, in addition to
pointing out the 15%+ improvement in memory achieved by healthy
volunteers after three months treatment with Ropren, he drew attention to the
fact that trial participants also experienced improvement in liver function as
well as normalisation of cholesterol levels.
Since the release of these preliminary results, there has been world wide
publicity in relation to both the failure of Torcetrapib, a new cholesterol drug
designed to raise HDL levels, and the fact that existing drugs from the statin
family like Lipitor (that reduce LDL levels by blocking a liver enzyme required
to produce cholesterol) exhibit material liver side effects with long term use.
Lipitor and other statins are used widely. Lipitor alone has annual sales in
excess of $US12 billion.
The preliminary results of the Swinburne trials suggested that Ropren could
have the potential to not only normalise cholesterol levels, but also deal with
the long term side effects of statin use. It is possible that this realisation has
led to increased interest in the Company. Confirmation of this potential should
be contained in the full trials report expected within days.

-------------------------------------------

Knocking off lipitor's sales of $12 billion would be nice and would increase the SP to an unimagineable level, and don't forget the rest of the things this company is toying with....It is of course speculation as to what the final results will be exactly, but as they have already conducted the same trials in Russia, I see this one still being good value at these prices IMO.

Good luck to all holders....and usualy you would see a pull back after a speeding ticket, not here guys.

Dave pan.....you may have made the right decision after all.

 

[HOMER J]

great response by SLA! reminding the market that plenty of news is very close......

 

[saltyjones]

pacer..........certainly got plenty of NWR. and SLA is a long term hold for me too. i can see so much upside in the coming years.

 

[davepan]

I expect a price of around $1 when Ropren is approved in March.

From there, IMO the price won't move much until we see $$$$$$.

The crucial thing for SLA is to get revenue flowing ASAP, that's what will push the price up towards $2.

I've done some rough calculations and SLA could easily be worth $5 based on initial demand for Ropren at 100,000 courses with SLA receiving $1,000US per course.

The Gross Profit margin will be high for Ropren, around 80% as per what Denis said at the AGM.

If SLA can achieve revenue of US$100m in 2-3 years with GP margin 80%, we will be in for a very exciting ride.

 

[pacer]

DAVEPAN-The Sauna produts are already on the shelves I'd say, that was the idea to generate instant sales to keep the company afloat without diluting shares.....there's the revenue till Ropren is up, up, and away.
FY07 results will be rather interesting I think, then we'll see the $$$$$. But Iguess a bit of sales info may be published sooner to give the market an idea of how things are going....ie yet another announcement when they run out of other great announcements....lol

As they say in this game..."It's never to late to get in on a bull run".....

 

[tugga]

looks like another good day

http://www.brr.com.au/

i have no audio on my pc, is someone able to give me a rundown on what was said here.

 

[pacer]

Same old stuff tugga but Ill let you onto this, since no one else realy cares about a breakout alert here...lol....

I want some myself.....!!!!!!!!

And that's the truth and where we have a market!

 

[moses]

I hate to spoil the party, but perhaps its time to convert to cash.

Why?

Selling & buying pressure has now equalised, and heading in the direction of selling pressure. Worse, the smart money is selling.

OTOH...this stock has has a habit of defying the indicator, so DYOR.

For example, there is a big single seller sitting at 0.745, just below yesterday's high, and another at 0.710 (lowest offer) dragging the indicator down. If they are cleared then the depth would go positive again.

Either way, its pretty obvious there are some serious profit takers in the queue, so watch out.

 

[pacer]

Todays announcement is significant, but I think the market has already factored it in to most peoples expectations before it was released, and SLA is being held as an investment for the future rather than a share to be traded just yet, which may account for Moses's interpretation, and as he says it may even defy the indicators.

I expect there to be plenty of volume as traders versus investors scramble for positions in the lead up to Ropren being available in March, and some reasonable trading opportunities till then.

Dennis Kilroy (Director) has stated that they do not intend to sell any of thier 'out of escrow' shares as stated on 'Boardroom Radio, and this was also communicated personaly to me by him, which gives me even more confidence here.

So from what I have read, my understang is that, they have a product that has the potential to knock multi-billion dollar sales (eg. Lipitor-US $12 billion) of other drugs off the shelves and replace them with ours....which is mind boggling considering the current market cap, and how close ropren is to making big revenues to cover expansion costs and more testing for all 15 Bioeffectives.

If you look at it that way it is still very cheap at this price, IMO, and any pull back will just make buying opportunities for investors, and I may have to take up another paper route, so I can get a few more.....lol

As always DYOR, and it's worth doing here to see it's potential.

 

[dhukka]

Todays announcement is significant, but I think the market has already factored it in to most peoples expectations before it was released, and SLA is being held as an investment for the future rather than a share to be traded just yet, which may account for Moses's interpretation, and as he says it may even defy the indicators.

I expect there to be plenty of volume as traders versus investors scramble for positions in the lead up to Ropren being available in March, and some reasonable trading opportunities till then.

Dennis Kilroy (Director) has stated that they do not intend to sell any of thier 'out of escrow' shares as stated on 'Boardroom Radio, and this was also communicated personaly to me by him, which gives me even more confidence here.

So from what I have read, my understang is that, they have a product that has the potential to knock multi-billion dollar sales (eg. Lipitor-US $12 billion) of other drugs off the shelves and replace them with ours....which is mind boggling considering the current market cap, and how close ropren is to making big revenues to cover expansion costs and more testing for all 15 Bioeffectives.

If you look at it that way it is still very cheap at this price, IMO, and any pull back will just make buying opportunities for investors, and I may have to take up another paper route, so I can get a few more.....lol

As always DYOR, and it's worth doing here to see it's potential.

More unsubstantiated claims of 'potential' sales and undervalued shares. The stuff in bold is indistinguishable from ramping. Give me the name of one biotech company that doesn't have the 'potential' to crack a multi-billion dollar market. I've not seen any firm guidance from the company on likely revenues or profits and fair enough since it is just too early to tell.

Some back of the envelope calculations no. of shares 200m S'holders equity FY06 $9.8m, equity per share = 4.9 cents. Assume 2007 NPAT of $10m ROE of 50% going forward discounted back at an appropriate discount rate gives about 30 cents per share. Pretty rough assumptions for FY07 but then all the other assumptions on this thread have been likewise.

 

[davepan]

dhukka,

While I think that pacer has got a little carried away quoting billion dollar sales figures (sorry pacer ), IMO SLA has enormous to make substantial profits in the future.

If you take a look at the AGM presentation, they estimated initial demand for Ropren in Russia alone by 2009 to be at least 100,000 courses per year.

There has been much speculation on the proposed selling price of around $1,000USD per course as the Russian Government offers subsidies of up to $1,000USD for hospital based treatments.

At the AGM SLA also indicated that they expect Gross Profit on the sale of their products to be 75% which is reasonable for pharmaceutical products.

Now - put $100mUSD revenue per year into your NPV calculator with a GP of 75%.

Does that give you a number with a 4 or 5 in front of it?

Remember that this is only ONE of their products in ONE country.

They have other products - Bioeffective A & B along with other target markets.

Now I agree that SLA is extremely risky and does not generate any substantial revenue at the moment, but you have to see the potential.

 

[pacer]

What?...me Ramp dhukka....never.......I used the word POTENTIAL.

Lipitor has been proven to dammage the liver, where Ropren has been proven not to, along with having other benefits beyond cholesterol normalisation, which is all lipitor is designed to do. Ropren is a natural substance derived from Conifer tree needles carefuly put together by mother nature in lush siderian forests, lipitor is a bunch of chemicals slapped together in a lab....I know what I'd prefer.

IMO when Ropren is approved, can be made at a competitive price and in sufficient volume (dont forget the injectable Ropren, to reduce the ammount necessay; trials to come), then it could be one of the worlds premier pharmacuticals, and $12 billion in sales will be peanuts (RAMP...hehe).

Still to come....

Bio-A use with Ropren
Sibex aquisition- New sports/heatlh drink sales
Animal husbandry/Agriculture agreement/licencing deal
childrens cold/flu treatment
Toothpaste (havent heard much on this lately)
Drug and alcohol results, and patents associated with that.
Topical creams (great results so far, but no news/deals mentioned yet)

I could go on and on.....no need....dyor....

I actualy hope it does return to 30c dhukka....I'd buy alot more.....not a ramp...the truth......

 

[chops_a_must]

Lipitor has been proven to dammage the liver, where Ropren has been proven not to, along with having other benefits beyond cholesterol normalisation, which is all lipitor is designed to do. Ropren is a natural substance derived from Conifer tree needles carefuly put together by mother nature in lush siderian forests, lipitor is a bunch of chemicals slapped together in a lab....I know what I'd prefer.

Believe it or not Pacer, the fact that it is a natural substance, I believe is it's biggest draw back. It's unfortunate but it will likely be sold next to Blackmores, rather than from a GP's prescription pad (where the real money is made). Logicol a case in point...

I could be wrong though...

 

[dhukka]

dhukka,

While I think that pacer has got a little carried away quoting billion dollar sales figures (sorry pacer ), IMO SLA has enormous to make substantial profits in the future.

If you take a look at the AGM presentation, they estimated initial demand for Ropren in Russia alone by 2009 to be at least 100,000 courses per year.

There has been much speculation on the proposed selling price of around $1,000USD per course as the Russian Government offers subsidies of up to $1,000USD for hospital based treatments.

At the AGM SLA also indicated that they expect Gross Profit on the sale of their products to be 75% which is reasonable for pharmaceutical products.

Now - put $100mUSD revenue per year into your NPV calculator with a GP of 75%.

Does that give you a number with a 4 or 5 in front of it?

Remember that this is only ONE of their products in ONE country.

They have other products - Bioeffective A & B along with other target markets.

Now I agree that SLA is extremely risky and does not generate any substantial revenue at the moment, but you have to see the potential.

Yes Davespan I see the 'potential' but the numbers being bandied about are meaningless at this stage. If you are on-board with Pacer then all the best. Just remember it's easy to get carried away with the potential upside and lose all persepctive on real value.

 

[pacer]

Yes Davespan I see the 'potential' but the numbers being bandied about are meaningless at this stage. If you are on-board with Pacer then all the best. Just remember it's easy to get carried away with the potential upside and lose all persepctive on real value.

Just like the director got rather excited/carried away, in the interview on
http//www.brr.com.au/SLA

Even he sound's extremely upbeat on the POTENTIAL the upcoming results will have on the value of the company.

That put a hold on any real retracement.....I think it will go sideways or even rise a little on expectation of the Alcohloics trials.

It's true there iis no way of knowing what value to put on SLA ATM, but it's worth more than 70c IMHO.

 

[pacer]

Believe it or not Pacer, the fact that it is a natural substance, I believe is it's biggest draw back. It's unfortunate but it will likely be sold next to Blackmores, rather than from a GP's prescription pad (where the real money is made). Logicol a case in point...

I could be wrong though...

In Company news, Blackmores Ltd has announced that it expects sales and profit to rise by 10 per cent this year, after posting a record first half result. The Company's net profit was at $10.19 million, up by 37 per cent, as sales rose 16.2 per cent to $84.4 million. Its Australian sales climbed by 14.5 per cent led by a strong performance in its pharmacy channel.

That is from australian investor.com and it shows that natural products are a big thing, and once people realise that you don't need chemicals, and that these bioeffectives are actualy better, we will see companies like SLA go ballistic, then we'll be saying that being a 'natural product' is it's biggest benefit......

Current affairs programmes have already been contacted, but we wont see SLA on the TV for a little while, as they want protections/patents in place, the alcoholics trials results released, SIBEX deal concluded, and Ropren rigistered as a new pharmacutical in RUSSIA.


IMO blackmores are tiny and may be pushed off the shelves for bioeffectives, or you may even see a solagran patch on thier label, as they may just use existing companies like blackmores, but add bioeffectives to thier products in a licencing deal along with many other companies that make toothpaste,losengers,.....you name it.

Ropren will be a registered pharmacutiacal (in Russia at least), and probably come as an injection, once that trial is completed, so you will probably have to go to your doctor for it.

There may be two sides to any logical conclusion.....

DYOR

 

[chops_a_must]

In Company news, Blackmores Ltd has announced that it expects sales and profit to rise by 10 per cent this year, after posting a record first half result. The Company's net profit was at $10.19 million, up by 37 per cent, as sales rose 16.2 per cent to $84.4 million. Its Australian sales climbed by 14.5 per cent led by a strong performance in its pharmacy channel.

That is from australian investor.com and it shows that natural products are a big thing, and once people realise that you don't need chemicals, and that these bioeffectives are actualy better, we will see companies like SLA go ballistic, then we'll be saying that being a 'natural product' is it's biggest benefit......

IMO blackmores are tiny and may be pushed off the shelves for bioeffectives, or you may even see a solagran patch on thier label, as they may just use existing companies like blackmores, but add bioeffectives to thier products in a licencing deal along with many other companies that make toothpaste,losengers,.....you name it.

Ropren will be a registered pharmacutiacal (in Russia at least), and probably come as an injection, once that trial is completed, so you will probably have to go to your doctor for it.

There may be two sides to any logical conclusion.....

DYOR

Yeah, I'm not doubting its potential to make money, I'm doubting how much. If it is a blackmores type, the revenue will be limited, but if it is a prescription based medicine, I dare say the revenue base will be significantly larger. And if it is marketed as a natural product, you will have every man and his dog coming out with studies showing why it doesn't work etc. etc.

Because it is made from plant based substances, it will be in direct competition with products such as Logicol. This will also make it harder to make huge amounts from the product.