Skaffold - Who's using it and what do you think?

[Ves]

There is a lot of talk in here about "financial data" (I hope at the very least that this includes a review of the Financial Statements).

However, to me, this discounts the most important part of my analysis; which is looking at the qualitative aspects that are not necessarily directly measurable by numbers such as the business model, competitive advantages and other intangible factors (such as industry expertise, management).

Since the user has no direct input into the Skaffold valuation calculations; they will never be able to incorportate their research and assumptions gained from this important analysis into the final product. It serves no real use to me as a scanning tool as I generally find businesses by reading forums such as this one, seeing company announcements or news articles and hearing details of their business model which often prompts further research. Outside of that, the major ratios such as Return on Equity can be scanned via Commsec.

 

[quadfin]

Ves "(I hope at the very least that this includes a review of the Financial Statements)."

Dude by paying for programs my review is done by an analyst if i want to question it they are a phone call away, i cannot review the whole market as an individual hence i pay and not stuck on spending hours reviewing multiple companies

vespuria "However, to me, this discounts the most important part of my analysis; which is looking at the qualitative aspects that are not necessarily directly measurable by numbers such as the business model, competitive advantages and other intangible factors (such as industry expertise, management)."

yes vesupria that is some what valid what i termed FA includes business model, competitive advantages not intangible factors (such as industry expertise, management).

vespuria "Since the user has no direct input into the Skaffold valuation calculations; they will never be able to incorportate their research and assumptions gained from this important analysis into the final product."

i disagree as i have stated previously my trading plan is stated whats yours??? skaffold is only another input not a final decision to a buy ,



vespuria "It serves no real use to me as a scanning tool as I generally find businesses by reading forums such as this one, seeing company announcements or news articles"

for a tool you have never used its rich saying its no real use to you, personally i rate tips from forums & news Articles as the lowest value in my research, actually they are not even part of my research or analysis

vespuria " Outside of that, the major ratios such as Return on Equity can be scanned via Commsec."

solid gold if your happy with a commsec scan stick with it, personally i need more, and commsec does not have the perimeters i need

 

[Ves]

for a tool you have never used its rich saying its no real use to you, personally i rate tips from forums & news Articles as the lowest value in my research, actually they are not even part of my research or analysis

Just to clarify, I do not take tips from forums and other sources. But I do use ideas from knowledgable sources as a basis for the start of my research.

For instance, Forge gets mentioned a lot on this forum as a quality company by other value investors. I would go and do my own independent analysis on this company and see if it is worth consideration. If you are curious I made a post or two in Robusta's thread about this company.

I don't trust experts to read Financial Statements for themselves, let alone on my behalf. If I wanted to cut down time I would put my money in a managed fund or even an index fund. I personally enjoy all of the hard work that goes into analysing companies with my own set of eyes and coming to my own conclusions.

 

[quadfin]

Just to clarify, I do not take tips from forums and other sources. But I do use ideas from knowledgable sources as a basis for the start of my research.

For instance, Forge gets mentioned a lot on this forum as a quality company by other value investors. I would go and do my own independent analysis on this company and see if it is worth consideration. If you are curious I made a post or two in Robusta's thread about this company.

I don't trust experts to read Financial Statements for themselves, let alone on my behalf. If I wanted to cut down time I would put my money in a managed fund or even an index fund. I personally enjoy all of the hard work that goes into analysing companies with my own set of eyes and coming to my own conclusions.

So you take info from knowledgeable sources on forums & newspapers whose opinion is based on data analysts. Never put you money in a managed fund maybe an lic if your lazy as for index funds, do your research before hand they are not as simple as they appear, I'm glad you enjoy all the hard work that goes into analysing companies, personally i find it easier to get the info chopped & ready for the pan

 

[Tightwad]

It's like the cheese that you can buy already grated but you pay more and get less.

 

[So_Cynical]

It's like the cheese that you can buy already grated but you pay more and get less.

Its true

At Harris farm this arvo

Aust Shaved Parmesan cheese $39 a Kg
Aust Parmesan cheese in a wedge $29 a Kg

I passed on both...i don't pay more than $20 a kilo for any cheese.

 

[nulla nulla]

Its true

At Harris farm this arvo

Aust Shaved Parmesan cheese $39 a Kg
Aust Parmesan cheese in a wedge $29 a Kg

I passed on both...i don't pay more than $20 a kilo for any cheese.

You should have grabbed the "Millel Pecorino" then. It was only $19.99 in a wedge. Goes well with the pasta.

They were also running a weekly special on "Jindi" cheeses at our local Harris Farm, $4.99 for a 200 gram Brie or Camembert. About $3.00 better than the supermarket chains.

 

[skc]

The following is a screenshot of the three buys i have made since subscribing to Skaffold. I will likely sell these in the near future as forecasts of international financial gloom and doom seem to be rife at the moment. Regardless of the real impact of these forecasts i think it will have a flow on effect to Australia so may have the opportunity to buy these shares back at a discounted rate;

View attachment 45472

This is not proof of a track record but is not bad for a less than 1 month old portfolio and i understand there are people who would take the time to research and invest in these same stocks without using a program to help them. I don't have the free time to spare.

I'd imagine the update from JBH would change it's Skaffold valuation by a fair bit.

How regularly is that updated? And how quickly does it issue a sell signal (if there's ever such a thing)?

 

[The Trooper]

I'd imagine the update from JBH would change it's Skaffold valuation by a fair bit.

How regularly is that updated? And how quickly does it issue a sell signal (if there's ever such a thing)?

Current Skaffold valuation for JBH is around $15.80 increasing to $18.99 over the next two years.

Skaffold is not updated in real time but overnight based on close of business the previous day. Priority of update and frequency i am unsure of as prominent stocks like JBH seem to be updated overnight however there is another small cap stock i am watching currently subject of a takeover bid that doesn't look like it's been updated for a while or perhaps the valuation is independent of the takeover bid which is speculative as these always have the chance of failing.

 

[skc]

Current Skaffold valuation for JBH is around $15.80 increasing to $18.99 over the next two years.

Skaffold is not updated in real time but overnight based on close of business the previous day. Priority of update and frequency i am unsure of as prominent stocks like JBH seem to be updated overnight however there is another small cap stock i am watching currently subject of a takeover bid that doesn't look like it's been updated for a while or perhaps the valuation is independent of the takeover bid which is speculative as these always have the chance of failing.

So you are still holding based on Skaffold's valuation in 2 years?

Does Skaffold ever issue a sell signal or equivalent for a loss?

 

[McLovin]

Does Skaffold ever issue a sell signal or equivalent for a loss?

I don't think Skaffold issues buy or sell signals. It just gives you a valuation and you have to decide. It's part of the charm/illusion of thinking you are actually doing any work.

 

[skc]

I don't think Skaffold issues buy or sell signals. It just gives you a valuation and you have to decide. It's part of the charm/illusion of thinking you are actually doing any work.

Well as long as people know what they are signing up for, and they know when to sell on their own accord, then that seems OK.

But if the assumption is that it will pick such awesome stocks which one would never need to sell... then it's probably the usual buy and hold forever pitfall.

With this kind of valuation I think a >20% fall in the valuation should trigger a sell, regardless of how much the share price is trading below the reduced valuation.... otherwise you can trail the valuation all the way to ground zero.

 

[McLovin]

Well as long as people know what they are signing up for, and they know when to sell on their own accord, then that seems OK.

But if the assumption is that it will pick such awesome stocks which one would never need to sell... then it's probably the usual buy and hold forever pitfall.

I agree. However, there is a lot of emphasis in the comments section of Roger's blog about "coming up with a valuation". Which leads me to believe many are just plugging some numbers in, making sure the MQR is decent and then assuming your second paragraph holds true.

 

[bargainbenno]

So what are people's thoughts on Skaffold now? Better than Stock Doctor? Anyone finding it proving worth the money?

 

[tech/a]

So what are people's thoughts on Skaffold now? Better than Stock Doctor? Anyone finding it proving worth the money?

All your getting is a valuation OPINION
nothing more.
Unless a larger majority agree with the potential of a stock
To reach that valuation ---you wont profit.

Personally I can see all I need in a chart.

I've seen countless charts rise AND fall in the face
Of Fundamenral --- valuation--- err opinion!

I have seen trader after trader sacrifice opportunity cost in the face of
Stagnation and un certainty.
I've seen fanatical support of losses due to an un wavering
Valuation "opinion". Right from profit to spectacular loss!

Technically I have far more control.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

could anybody lend me a username and password to let me try it out.

username is oneborneveryminute
password is whoneeds$1330

all in lower case

gg

 

[Nutmeg]

As I've mentioned before I try and find businesses with high recurring revenues because it makes estimating earnings easier and gives those estimates a margin of safety.

The key to value investing above all else is the margin of safety.

Well said. After all, the essential question is: how much is this company worth? If you can't work that out, how can you work out how much a piece of it - a share - is worth? In my view, strong established streams of recurring revenue provide the best basis for forming a valuation that stands the mostly likely chance of remaining accurate a year or two years hence. It's the method Buffett uses. Buying with a margin of safety then ensures greater upside and much reduced downside, i.e. permanent capital loss.

On the issue of Skaffold, I heard Roger is pitching this to big financial institutions now. If Skaffold comes to be used by large segments of the investing market, I suspect that the result will be that it will create its own valuation anomalies that those not using Skaffold will be able to profit from. As I personally depend on valuation anomalies to make my investing decisions, I say that the more people that use Skaffold, the better. If those people turn out to be institutions, I'll be very happy.

 

[McLovin]

Current Skaffold valuation for JBH is around $15.80 increasing to $18.99 over the next two years.

What's JBH's current Skaffold valuation?

 

[skc]

What's JBH's current Skaffold valuation?

Current year $8.53, FY13 $13.43.

http://blog.rogermontgomery.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/Skaffold-JBH-Value-chart-2012-04-27.png

Skaffold is nothing more than a fancy, graphically rich calculator. It says nothing about a company's competitive advantage, reliability of earnings, risks of changing external environment etc.

Indeed, RM said it himself quite well.

Skaffold’s conservative valuation estimate for JBH is $13.43 for 2013 as can be seen by the thin orange line in the above chart. Whether the share price now approaches that valuation or that valuation instead is revised lower and approaches the price will be determined by whether the company can harness its opportunity and when the irrational pricing associated with collapsing competitors ends. Of course after that, its success will be dependent on the depth of the impact of the structural change represented by the retail shift global and online.

http://blog.rogermontgomery.com/

Those who invest based on Skaffold alone are ignoring that sort of stuff. I just don't know how much of Skaffold's marketing emphasise this.

 

[Ves]

Current year $8.53, FY13 $13.43.

Love it, 50% fluctuation in the space of 12 months. I love earnings momentum investors and their constantly moving goal posts.