Skaffold - Who's using it and what do you think?

[So_Cynical]

The following is a screenshot of the three buys i have made since subscribing to Skaffold. I will likely sell these in the near future as forecasts of international financial gloom and doom seem to be rife at the moment. Regardless of the real impact of these forecasts i think it will have a flow on effect to Australia so may have the opportunity to buy these shares back at a discounted rate;

View attachment 45472

This is not proof of a track record but is not bad for a less than 1 month old portfolio and i understand there are people who would take the time to research and invest in these same stocks without using a program to help them. I don't have the free time to spare.

Trooper...post in real time or it didn't happen.

Your last post in the JBH thread was 15th-July-2011 before the big dip....if your gona spruk something, credibility is an issue...interesting that you posted in the JBH thread that you were buying at around the $15 level, well before Skaffold.

 

[MichaelSy]

if you're buying a black box off someone with a mediocre record as an investor how can you expect to do better than mediocre.

Wait a second. Are you trying to say RM was a mediocre fund manager?

If so, do you have proof to back up the claim (and don't just link to one poor stock performance)?

Michael

 

[skc]

Wait a second. Are you trying to say RM was a mediocre fund manager?

If so, do you have proof to back up the claim (and don't just link to one poor stock performance)?

Michael

Scroll up to post #9 on this thread...

 

[craft]

Wait a second. Are you trying to say RM was a mediocre fund manager?

If so, do you have proof to back up the claim (and don't just link to one poor stock performance)?

Michael

The history is all there in CAM for you to investigate yourself. Most of his followers already have their mind made up and don't want to be confused by the facts.

What about you? Do you want something to believe in or do you want the facts? Research will give you the facts if you want them.

And It’s not just the historical record that raises concerns.

Despite all the value investing rhetoric he is much more speculating on earnings momentum then value investing.

I mean really how can an intrinsic values change daily? An intrinsic value should take into account everything that is likely to occur in the future – you only change it when you are wrong about an assumption that you have made.

My point of view is that the chart will provide much more timely information then analysing the accounts if you want to play earnings momentum.

Being late at the turns will kill an analysis based earnings momentum approach and as we are most likely in a big sideways market you can expect lots of turns.

Look at his biggest calls for the last year. MCE which was his number 1 pick for 2011 and he ramped endlessly with valuations up to $11 odd dollars and QR National where he was the media’s go to man to mock the QR float as woefully overvalued. The market a year later says he was dead wrong on both – but the most disturbing thing is his integrity around MCE when after the price collapsed he claimed never being heavily invested.

Montgomery might like to promote himself the next Buffett, but the record, the strategy, the integrity, the secrecy, maybe he’s the next .....

 

[Judd]

The history is all there in CAM for you to investigate yourself. Most of his followers already have their mind made up and don't want to be confused by the facts.

What about you? Do you want something to believe in or do you want the facts? Research will give you the facts if you want them.

And It’s not just the historical record that raises concerns.

Despite all the value investing rhetoric he is much more speculating on earnings momentum then value investing.

I mean really how can an intrinsic values change daily? An intrinsic value should take into account everything that is likely to occur in the future – you only change it when you are wrong about an assumption that you have made.

My point of view is that the chart will provide much more timely information then analysing the accounts if you want to play earnings momentum.

Being late at the turns will kill an analysis based earnings momentum approach and as we are most likely in a big sideways market you can expect lots of turns.

Look at his biggest calls for the last year. MCE which was his number 1 pick for 2011 and he ramped endlessly with valuations up to $11 odd dollars and QR National where he was the media’s go to man to mock the QR float as woefully overvalued. The market a year later says he was dead wrong on both – but the most disturbing thing is his integrity around MCE when after the price collapsed he claimed never being heavily invested.

Montgomery might like to promote himself the next Buffett, but the record, the strategy, the integrity, the secrecy, maybe he’s the next .....

I thought the names looked familiar. The now chairman of CAM is/was an associate of Geoffrey Wilson of WAM, who is also a Director of CAM. Same with Julian J Gosse and all three are on Australian Leaders Fund (ALF) along with Mr Justin Braitling whose company externally manages ALF. Hmm, now there is value for you without the need to subscribe to any software. Simply get on a board.

 

[craft]

I thought the names looked familiar. The now chairman of CAM is/was an associate of Geoffrey Wilson of WAM, who is also a Director of CAM. Same with Julian J Gosse and all three are on Australian Leaders Fund (ALF) along with Mr Justin Braitling whose company externally manages ALF. Hmm, now there is value for you without the need to subscribe to any software. Simply get on a board.

And it’s interesting to note that since John Abernethy took over the investment mandate from RM on 16/2/09 CAM has actually slightly outperformed the XAO accumulation index.

It would be really interesting to know what Geoff Wilson thinks or RM and under what circumstances RM left – Looking at the performance I reckon they threw his sorry **** out of there.

 

[quadfin]

In essence your paying for stock tips in conservative stocks, no entry or exit strategy, no trade management, no position sizing, no broad strategy at all....seems a lot to pay for reasonably obvious tips.

Obvious because A1 company's (high ROE) seem to share some quality's.

• very low or no debt
• No hard assets (don't own anything)
• Not capital intense (service providers)
• History of paying dividends

The above list narrows the all Ords down to less than 50 company's, and that cost you nothing.

you are so wrong so cynical on every point except low debt
trooper you opened a can of worms the ta lovers hate FA, they are like vegetarians at a BBQ
I currently pay for stock doctor & skaffold, both are completely different & intend to keep both



Skaffold is not a black box, its a valuation system & a supplier of FA Data for every stock on the market the choice of what you do with that info is yours, for me personally it just narrows down the further research i do. would i just create a portfolio based on the A1's No.
After reading his book the method appealed to me, however the time required to put it into practice was restrictive & also i could not use it to narrow down stocks through other FA based scanners, so $1300 is cheap to me. The method to arrive at the valuation is in his book, how he arrives at an a1 of c5 status is also available in the program & also on his blog.

My investing is based on FA first than TA, so since the launch of his book i have applied the methodology & am pleased with the results, now i can search the market quickly & efficiently based on my criteria.

Lots of Ta delusional talking about stuff on this thread they never bothered to learn.

Trooper i'm liking the program, it allows me to broaden perimeters to my liking, the only issue i have with it is lack of ability to export to a spreadsheet & it is still not a total package, no charting or user defined searches, still playing with it will report more in the future

 

[McLovin]

Lots of Ta delusional talking about stuff on this thread they never bothered to learn.

Most (all?) of the criticism in this thread has been from FAs not TAs.

 

[waimate01]

The method to arrive at the valuation is in his book...

Ahh, sort of.

He obfuscates in order to create mystique, but there's plenty of info around on the underlying formulas, none of which are rocket science (despite him adding 0.5 here and subtracting 0.5 there).

But when you apply it, it doesn't match what he spruiks via his other mouthpieces.

However the time required to put it into practice...

The 'moat' for Roger is that it's too hard to apply his methods broadly. Unless you happen to have the necessary background. And if you do, his methods dissolve into nothingness.

But never fear, he has another magic formula (that you get to see for substantially more than $50).

"Never mind that man behind the curtain."

 

[quadfin]

Got a link to how he arrives at an "MQR" for a given company or can you explain it? Maybe you can explain how WOW was of inferior "quality" to MCE. I'm pretty sure Monty has said he won't disclose his black box of magic.



Most (all?) of the criticism in this thread has been from FAs not TAs.

no link mate sorry, i assume your referring to his blog & past posts regarding wow & mce, without pulling up the program i can later if you want, discount to intrinsic value would be the key to that argument, i do not get excited by wow

as for what you refer to black box, valuations are company property be it lincoln or skaffold, even huntleys is sketchy all programs are only useful if you know how to use them

let me know how i can scan the market for FA for free without paying money would love to know

 

[McLovin]

no link mate sorry, i assume your referring to his blog & past posts regarding wow & mce, without pulling up the program i can later if you want, discount to intrinsic value would be the key to that argument, i do not get excited by wow

He rated MCE as an "A1" and WOW as a "B2". It had nothing to do with IV. The question is, if you understand the methodology he uses to arrive at his MQR how can a large consumer staple retailer operating in what is effectively a duopoly be considered inferior to a mining services contractor?

as for what you refer to black box, valuations are company property be it lincoln or skaffold, even huntleys is sketchy all programs are only useful if you know how to use them

Right, so if you don't know how the rating that gets spat out at the end is arrived at what else would you call it?

let me know how i can scan the market for FA for free without paying money would love to know

Commsec? How detailed is Skaffold's FA data? I'm assuming it's just the standard Morningstar data redone to look pretty. That is all available on Commsec (and several other websites).

 

[quadfin]

He rated MCE as an "A1" and WOW as a "B2". It had nothing to do with IV. The question is, if you understand the methodology he uses to arrive at his MQR how can a large consumer staple retailer operating in what is effectively a duopoly be considered inferior to a mining services contractor?"

gees I have to state the obvious, capital gain, again you are referring to an old case, if you buy & hold get an etf, mce was superior to wow for that period

Most people who do research themselves would have exited mce once it reached its peak & strangely enough its IV, at the time that call was made i agree with RM... I had an exit strategy.



"Right, so if you don't know how the rating that gets spat out at the end is arrived at what else would you call it?"

i do understand do you obviously not, read up, i'm not here for private lessons


Commsec? How detailed is Skaffold's FA data? I'm assuming it's just the standard Morningstar data redone to look pretty. That is all available on Commsec (and several other websites).

as far as i know morningstar is the benchmark for data, providers are licensed to provide aspects of it & not allow duplication, ie capability for users to take to spreadsheets.

Dude commsec does provide some data, just not the amount of data i require nor does it have the search functionality i require, hence i pay for stock doctor & skaffold
nor is commsecs TA package enough for me, its rubbish

plus my time is money i want info at a press of a button not an afternoon wading through figures

 

[McLovin]

as far as i know morningstar is the benchmark for data, providers are licensed to provide aspects of it & not allow duplication, ie capability for users to take to spreadsheets.

Dude commsec does provide some data, just not the amount of data i require nor does it have the search functionality i require, hence i pay for stock doctor & skaffold
nor is commsecs TA package enough for me, its rubbish

What does Skaffold have over Commsec? I'm being serious, because the SQL query tool on Commsec seems to get most of the data that retail platforms will offer to compare companies and it's copy/pasteable into Excel.

Capital IQ's database is superior to Morningstar's. The data on Capital IQ is far cleaner.

 

[quadfin]

What does Skaffold have over Commsec? I'm being serious, because the SQL query tool on Commsec seems to get most of the data that retail platforms will offer to compare companies and it's copy/pasteable into Excel.

Capital IQ's database is superior to Morningstar's. The data on Capital IQ is far cleaner.

first off most of my previous response was inserted in the quote sorry about that i'm new here
Yeah i agree there is debate on the cleanliness of data from morningstar, i have no opinion.

I could not rely on commsec for my scans from memory its very basic, my own created FA filter could not be entered as it did not have the perimeters required.

the fa scans available from hubb stockdoctor & skaffold make commsec look like kindergarten

Hence i pay

 

[craft]

Capital IQ's database is superior to Morningstar's. The data on Capital IQ is far cleaner.

basis for that statement is?

 

[McLovin]

basis for that statement is?

Anecdotal . And not necessarily my own. As I've mentioned before I haven't used the premium Morningstar/FA only Capital IQ.

In my limited use of Capital IQ I never noticed errors. I regularly spot them in the free Morningstar data.

 

[McLovin]

first off most of my previous response was inserted in the quote sorry about that i'm new here

I assume this is your response below?

gees I have to state the obvious, capital gain, again you are referring to an old case, if you buy & hold get an etf, mce was superior to wow for that period

No, the MQR has nothing to do with capital gain or SP performance. It's about measuring/predicting/guessing the likelihood of a "capital event"; ie a need to raise money.

Most people who do research themselves would have exited mce once it reached its peak & strangely enough its IV, at the time that call was made i agree with RM... I had an exit strategy.

Here's what Monty said about MCE as its SP was hitting $9...

There are no hard and fast rules around this. And don’t believe you can come up with a winning approach with a simple ‘sell when 20% above intrinsic value’ approach either.

What you MUST do is look at the future prospects. In particular, is the intrinsic value rising? I believe it is for Matrix (and I am not the only fund manager who does – you could ask my mate Chris too).

...

Personally I believe one of my most important contributions to the principles of value investing is the idea of future valuations. Nobody was talking about them at the time I started mentioning 2011 and 2012 Value.able valuations and rates of growth. They are important because we want to buy businesses with bright prospects. And a company whose intrinsic value is rising “at a good clip” demonstrates those bright prospects.

If you have more faith and conviction that the business will be more valuable in one, two and three years time, you may be willing to hold on. I am currently not rushing to sell Matrix, however I do hope for much lower prices (buy shares like you buy groceries…)

{bolding mine}

http://blog.rogermontgomery.com/when-to-sell-matrix-and-other-adventures-in-value-able-investing/

Hardly sounds like a guy who thought MCE was well over its IV...I assume his black box would have said it wasn't overpriced as well.

 

[craft]

Anecdotal . And not necessarily my own. As I've mentioned before I haven't used the premium Morningstar/FA only Capital IQ.

In my limited use of Capital IQ I never noticed errors. I regularly spot them in the free Morningstar data.

Hi McL
I’ve had a chance to look at both now and my conclusion was that the differences in accuracy are marginal.

As far as verifying the data CIQ has a very useful feature in being able to drill to the source document when something looks abnormal.

Either database is adequate for prelim analysis but neither is perfect. – best to check your own chute before jumping.

As for the free data which seems to be generally sourced from Morningstar – I wonder how much is lost in the transfer process. Like when earnings are quoted is it as reported, adjusted for abnormal, normalized, weighted, diluted etc – all are available on the main Morningstar database and it would depend on which line is linked too. Perhaps the errors occur with the links.

Have you got any examples of errors on a free site – It would be interesting to compare it to Finanlysis.

The consensus estimates on Comsec seem to be very limited in the numbers of analyst contributing compared to the paid versions and very slow in updating.

If you open up the comparison between CIQ and Morningstar to include interface, Screening, exporting data etc then CIQ wins hands down (CIQ is quite awsome actually) but the core databases are very similar IMO.

Cheers

 

[Miner]

A late entry in this thread and I am not yet a member of Skaffold system though have been getting lot of emails from them asking to become founder member.

Now the emails have stopped.

I have some observation about Skaffold valuation:

They are look alike of Stock Vale and stock doctor. I am not saying same.

Clime used to boast a lot but could not prove to be a succesful venture. Look at Clime own performance table.

Lastly, to be fair for skaffold - they offer 30 days money back guarantee. So in reality you can make or lose money and still get out after 30 days. I believe that offer is fair and reasonable even for the worst critic of Skaffold.

 

[asxiq]

1) from a 30000 ft level the valuation formula used by roger seems to a variant of 'Gordon Growth Model' & or dividend discount model what prof A.Damodaran describes in his book "Damodaran on valuation"

2) he seems to follower a ben graham from the tv talks that i glanced ,

" In the 1970s, an investor named James Rea was convinced enough of the value of these screens that he founded a fund called the Rea-Graham Fund, which would invest in stocks based upon the Graham screens. While it had some initial successes, the fund floundered during the 1980s and early 1990s and was ranked in the bottom quartile for performance " from the book investment fables page no.67

in short a favourable investment theme offlate is to mix with value with momentum .. something in the lines of Josef Lakonishok
http://articles.businessinsider.com...-stocks-price-to-book-value-earnings-surprise

ps:i don't have access to skaffold