Skaffold - Who's using it and what do you think?

[McLovin]

Hi McL
I’ve had a chance to look at both now and my conclusion was that the differences in accuracy are marginal.

As far as verifying the data CIQ has a very useful feature in being able to drill to the source document when something looks abnormal.

Either database is adequate for prelim analysis but neither is perfect. – best to check your own chute before jumping.

As for the free data which seems to be generally sourced from Morningstar – I wonder how much is lost in the transfer process. Like when earnings are quoted is it as reported, adjusted for abnormal, normalized, weighted, diluted etc – all are available on the main Morningstar database and it would depend on which line is linked too. Perhaps the errors occur with the links.

Have you got any examples of errors on a free site – It would be interesting to compare it to Finanlysis.

The consensus estimates on Comsec seem to be very limited in the numbers of analyst contributing compared to the paid versions and very slow in updating.

If you open up the comparison between CIQ and Morningstar to include interface, Screening, exporting data etc then CIQ wins hands down (CIQ is quite awsome actually) but the core databases are very similar IMO.

Cheers

Thanks craft

I don't use the free data that often, I go straight to the source, but if I do find an error I'll post it to see what FA says. It would be interesting if FA is different to the free data. Interesting that the difference is only marginal.

I've not really used the interface for CIQ (although I have used the data) but I'll be subscribing in the new year.

Cheers

 

[MichaelSy]

The history is all there in CAM for you to investigate yourself.

What about you?

Despite all the value investing rhetoric.

Craft,

Thanks for posting back in regards to my comment.

Excuse my ignorance but he was the fund manager at CAM, which clearly was underperforming the index - as depicted by your graph?

I am most of the way through his book and the resounding message to me is, you can make money by value investing (buy good companies at bargain prices).

Value investing: Let's say, hypothetically, you want to invest in steel manufacturers. You find someone who has been in management for 20 years in the steel industry and you find out which companies are performing well and likely to perform well into the future. You ask him/her which steel producers are competitive and well managed. While you are at, you get them to teach you how the steel industry works. You buy this stock, and speculate that it will increase into the future, or until the circumstances change.

Rinse and repeat for all the other industries listed on the exchange.

I don't see any other way how you can truly "Understand the business". Regardless of how many financial statements you read about a company.

I mean, essentially the message is that you should buy a company because it is a valuable company. Except I wouldn't have a single clue whether I should buy the corner store up the road becuase I don't know whether it is valuable or not - and from learning accounting at university, the message is: that it is not good to rely on the financial statements (which RM relies on in his book, and probably Skafold). So how else am I to work out if it is valuable?

 

[McLovin]

Value investing: Let's say, hypothetically, you want to invest in steel manufacturers. You find someone who has been in management for 20 years in the steel industry and you find out which companies are performing well and likely to perform well into the future. You ask him/her which steel producers are competitive and well managed. While you are at, you get them to teach you how the steel industry works. You buy this stock, and speculate that it will increase into the future, or until the circumstances change.

Rinse and repeat for all the other industries listed on the exchange.

I don't see any other way how you can truly "Understand the business". Regardless of how many financial statements you read about a company.

You've described fundamental investing, not value investing specifically.

Certain types of businesses are easier to understand than others. Find a circle of competence and stick with it. As I've mentioned before I try and find businesses with high recurring revenues because it makes estimating earnings easier and gives those estimates a margin of safety.

The key to value investing above all else is the margin of safety.

 

[MichaelSy]

You've described fundamental investing, not value investing specifically.

The key to value investing above all else is the margin of safety.

My mistake.

Good point, I will certainly remember that one - margin of safety.

Do you think Skaffold better assists in working out the margin of safety?

 

[McLovin]

Do you think Skaffold better assists in working out the margin of safety?

It depends how you approach it. Skaffold markets itself as a "valuation service" (I believe Monty has used this term when hyping it on his blog). As a "valuation service" it doesn't work because, as has been discussed ad nauseum on the RM thread the formula has some serious flaws.

If however you use Skaffold to obtain fundamental data (and I have no idea how good/bad the data is) then I guess it could help you to understand and determine margin of safety.

I wouldn't trust the MQRs or the valuation formula to make an investment decision though.

 

[The Trooper]

Trooper...post in real time or it didn't happen.

Your last post in the JBH thread was 15th-July-2011 before the big dip....if your gona spruk something, credibility is an issue...interesting that you posted in the JBH thread that you were buying at around the $15 level, well before Skaffold.

Very observant So Cynical. The stocks i posted were all bought post-skaffold subscription. Yes, have bought jbh before. Panicked and sold after the price drop when the shares returned to break even purchase point then rebought after i subscribed to Skaffold. I still stand by my first buy.

 

[The Trooper]

If however you use Skaffold to obtain fundamental data (and I have no idea how good/bad the data is) then I guess it could help you to understand and determine margin of safety.

The following is an example of some of the data for cash converters. The summary is:



For each company there is an evaluation function where you can select the history of data from the following drop down menu;



An example of the cash flow chart and history are as follows, the notation on the cash flow chart is the year summary from where the mouse hovered when i selected it;

 

[prawn_86]

The following is an example of some of the data for cash converters. The summary is:

For each company there is an evaluation function where you can select the history of data from the following drop down menu;

Looks the same as what Netwealth (and other brokers i'm assuming) provides for free just in a bit better format....

 

[quadfin]

I assume this is your response below?



No, the MQR has nothing to do with capital gain or SP performance. It's about measuring/predicting/guessing the likelihood of a "capital event"; ie a need to raise money.



Here's what Monty said about MCE as its SP was hitting $9...



{bolding mine}

http://blog.rogermontgomery.com/when-to-sell-matrix-and-other-adventures-in-value-able-investing/

Hardly sounds like a guy who thought MCE was well over its IV...I assume his black box would have said it wasn't overpriced as well.

I agree they are damning statements if it doubled everyone would be a fan,,,, the key is do not follow either way
Skaffold its not a black box (if you think it is your deluded) FA changes be on the ball

i will say like Roger, morningstar huntleys & the scourge of the newsletters port phillip publishing trading halts after every picks, people follow who cares i do not, i tend to get out when they are in.

 

[quadfin]

You've described fundamental investing, not value investing specifically.

Certain types of businesses are easier to understand than others. Find a circle of competence and stick with it. As I've mentioned before I try and find businesses with high recurring revenues because it makes estimating earnings easier and gives those estimates a margin of safety.

The key to value investing above all else is the margin of safety.

Mclovin you put the pox on the thread than come back with a roger quote "The key to value investing above all else is the margin of safety"

Thanks

 

[quadfin]

He rated MCE as an "A1" and WOW as a "B2". It had nothing to do with IV. The question is, if you understand the methodology he uses to arrive at his MQR how can a large consumer staple retailer operating in what is effectively a duopoly be considered inferior to a mining services contractor?

.

Capital gain profit we are not all buy & holders

 

[quadfin]

Looks the same as what Netwealth (and other brokers i'm assuming) provides for free just in a bit better format....

prawn can you scan that data?????????????? For free on your own peremeters????????

Is it free

 

[quadfin]

It depends how you approach it. Skaffold markets itself as a "valuation service" (I believe Monty has used this term when hyping it on his blog). As a "valuation service" it doesn't work because, as has been discussed ad nauseum on the RM thread the formula has some serious flaws.

If however you use Skaffold to obtain fundamental data (and I have no idea how good/bad the data is) then I guess it could help you to understand and determine margin of safety.

I wouldn't trust the MQRs or the valuation formula to make an investment decision though.

Mclovin or mcpox easy to sit afar and throw monkey poo,,, lots of people follow brokers consensus, lincoln valuations & now montgomery valuations.

Each to their own, (i follow none) everyone is not an expert (funny the experts just lose other peoples money whilst getting extremely overpaid), if huntleys montgomery & stockdoctor provide a education for some people and its a tax deductible expense who cares
personally everything that gets spat out of a scan is only a mark for further investigation

Mclovin where do you find your picks without these programs.?????

 

[McLovin]

Mclovin or mcpox easy to sit afar and throw monkey poo,,, lots of people follow brokers consensus, lincoln valuations & now montgomery valuations.

Good for them, each to his or her own, as you say. I wouldn't and I, along with other posters, have given an opinion as to why Skaffold isn't worth the money (the formula has some issues and the rating methodology is opaque) . If you believe it is worth it then use it, no skin off my back.

Each to their own, (i follow none) everyone is not an expert (funny the experts just lose other peoples money whilst getting extremely overpaid), if huntleys montgomery & stockdoctor provide a education for some people and its a tax deductible expense who cares

I don't understand, the "experts just lose other people's money" but you subscibe to their services? I would never consider a subsciption based service on whether it is or isn't tax deductible.

Mclovin where do you find your picks without these programs.?????

Scans, reading on here, talking to people.

 

[Ves]

Mclovin you put the pox on the thread than come back with a roger quote "The key to value investing above all else is the margin of safety"

Thanks

Surely you mean to say that Roger Montgomery paraphrased this from the musings of those generations before him? It's certainly not an original or unique idea that he came up with...

 

[McLovin]

Surely you mean to say that Roger Montgomery paraphrased this from the musings of those generations before him? It's certainly not an original or unique idea that he came up with...

What does this remind you of...?

 

[McLovin]

Looks the same as what Netwealth (and other brokers i'm assuming) provides for free just in a bit better format....

Yes, it confirmed what I thought it was. The same data just with lipstick on it. You really are paying for the MQR and valuation service.

 

[quadfin]

Yes, it confirmed what I thought it was. The same data just with lipstick on it. You really are paying for the MQR and valuation service.

Yeah of course you are, whilst I am no follower, at the end of the day its another tool & i hope their are more white robed followers than in the picture you posted, another tool to front run like the ASCI fluff of years ago, maybe they still do it who knows my circumstances have changes i dont follow the market daily anymore.

More info more ops more certainty

Still do not see the comparison to netwealth, from a previous poster still i reckon a lot of financial advisors have bought skaffold just to confuse the clients of their superior understanding or lack of understanding, skaffold will never give you a buy, if you use it like that you will fail, same with lincoln, same with morningstar etc etc

As i have said before mclovin "i am an individual you cant fool me" Jacko 1985, its not a black box but used in conjunction with other analysis, it works for me. good luck with your system.

 

[Ves]

When you say "other analysis", what do you mean, quadfin?

Tough day to the guy who bought JB Hifi on Roger's program's recommendation, by the way. A small profit to a bigger loss will be a hard pill to swallow, I imagine. But the signs were all there (not that the program can tell you this information).

 

[quadfin]

When you say "other analysis", what do you mean, quadfin?

Tough day to the guy who bought JB Hifi on Roger's program's recommendation, by the way. A small profit to a bigger loss will be a hard pill to swallow, I imagine. But the signs were all there (not that the program can tell you this information).

exactly vesupria, its not a black box, its info, people take the easy path than complain, same happens on the stockdoctor forum when stocks are downgraded, as you said the signs were all there & no program can replace your own brain., hopefully the guy learned a valuable lesson, that you always should have stop losses & a trading plan, if he did their would be no bitter pill to swallow

Other analysis, here is my process people may think its rubbish but its mine i do not follow newsletters or market gurus or follow other peoples trading plans nor should anyone follow mine
1) scan the market for FA, via my criteria
2)scan the market for FA with stockdoctor on their criteria
3)set parameters in skaffold scan
4)Collate results move to spreadsheet
5)review & research via stockdoctor & skaffold
6) choose the best candidates, set entry & exit via FA
7) Run Technical analysis
8) set entry & exit via TA & FA
9)Set alerts
10) review before entry once alerts triggered
11)enter position set stop losses & stop profits
12) monitor & review winning trades & losing trades
13) continually monitor & alter system & stops if needed.
14) drink beer