The following is a screenshot of the three buys i have made since subscribing to Skaffold. I will likely sell these in the near future as forecasts of international financial gloom and doom seem to be rife at the moment. Regardless of the real impact of these forecasts i think it will have a flow on effect to Australia so may have the opportunity to buy these shares back at a discounted rate;
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This is not proof of a track record but is not bad for a less than 1 month old portfolio and i understand there are people who would take the time to research and invest in these same stocks without using a program to help them. I don't have the free time to spare.
if you're buying a black box off someone with a mediocre record as an investor how can you expect to do better than mediocre.
Wait a second. Are you trying to say RM was a mediocre fund manager?
If so, do you have proof to back up the claim (and don't just link to one poor stock performance)?
Michael
Wait a second. Are you trying to say RM was a mediocre fund manager?
If so, do you have proof to back up the claim (and don't just link to one poor stock performance)?
Michael
The history is all there in CAM for you to investigate yourself. Most of his followers already have their mind made up and don't want to be confused by the facts.
What about you? Do you want something to believe in or do you want the facts? Research will give you the facts if you want them.
And It’s not just the historical record that raises concerns.
Despite all the value investing rhetoric he is much more speculating on earnings momentum then value investing.
I mean really how can an intrinsic values change daily? An intrinsic value should take into account everything that is likely to occur in the future – you only change it when you are wrong about an assumption that you have made.
My point of view is that the chart will provide much more timely information then analysing the accounts if you want to play earnings momentum.
Being late at the turns will kill an analysis based earnings momentum approach and as we are most likely in a big sideways market you can expect lots of turns.
Look at his biggest calls for the last year. MCE which was his number 1 pick for 2011 and he ramped endlessly with valuations up to $11 odd dollars and QR National where he was the media’s go to man to mock the QR float as woefully overvalued. The market a year later says he was dead wrong on both – but the most disturbing thing is his integrity around MCE when after the price collapsed he claimed never being heavily invested.
Montgomery might like to promote himself the next Buffett, but the record, the strategy, the integrity, the secrecy, maybe he’s the next .....
I thought the names looked familiar. The now chairman of CAM is/was an associate of Geoffrey Wilson of WAM, who is also a Director of CAM. Same with Julian J Gosse and all three are on Australian Leaders Fund (ALF) along with Mr Justin Braitling whose company externally manages ALF. Hmm, now there is value for you without the need to subscribe to any software. Simply get on a board.
In essence your paying for stock tips in conservative stocks, no entry or exit strategy, no trade management, no position sizing, no broad strategy at all....seems a lot to pay for reasonably obvious tips.
Obvious because A1 company's (high ROE) seem to share some quality's.
- very low or no debt
- No hard assets (don't own anything)
- Not capital intense (service providers)
- History of paying dividends
The above list narrows the all Ords down to less than 50 company's, and that cost you nothing.
Lots of Ta delusional talking about stuff on this thread they never bothered to learn.
The method to arrive at the valuation is in his book...
However the time required to put it into practice...
Got a link to how he arrives at an "MQR" for a given company or can you explain it? Maybe you can explain how WOW was of inferior "quality" to MCE. I'm pretty sure Monty has said he won't disclose his black box of magic.
Most (all?) of the criticism in this thread has been from FAs not TAs.
no link mate sorry, i assume your referring to his blog & past posts regarding wow & mce, without pulling up the program i can later if you want, discount to intrinsic value would be the key to that argument, i do not get excited by wow
as for what you refer to black box, valuations are company property be it lincoln or skaffold, even huntleys is sketchy all programs are only useful if you know how to use them
let me know how i can scan the market for FA for free without paying money would love to know
He rated MCE as an "A1" and WOW as a "B2". It had nothing to do with IV. The question is, if you understand the methodology he uses to arrive at his MQR how can a large consumer staple retailer operating in what is effectively a duopoly be considered inferior to a mining services contractor?"
gees I have to state the obvious, capital gain, again you are referring to an old case, if you buy & hold get an etf, mce was superior to wow for that period
Most people who do research themselves would have exited mce once it reached its peak & strangely enough its IV, at the time that call was made i agree with RM... I had an exit strategy.
"Right, so if you don't know how the rating that gets spat out at the end is arrived at what else would you call it?"
i do understand do you obviously not, read up, i'm not here for private lessons
Commsec? How detailed is Skaffold's FA data? I'm assuming it's just the standard Morningstar data redone to look pretty. That is all available on Commsec (and several other websites).
as far as i know morningstar is the benchmark for data, providers are licensed to provide aspects of it & not allow duplication, ie capability for users to take to spreadsheets.
Dude commsec does provide some data, just not the amount of data i require nor does it have the search functionality i require, hence i pay for stock doctor & skaffold
nor is commsecs TA package enough for me, its rubbish
What does Skaffold have over Commsec? I'm being serious, because the SQL query tool on Commsec seems to get most of the data that retail platforms will offer to compare companies and it's copy/pasteable into Excel.
Capital IQ's database is superior to Morningstar's. The data on Capital IQ is far cleaner.
basis for that statement is?Capital IQ's database is superior to Morningstar's. The data on Capital IQ is far cleaner.
basis for that statement is?
first off most of my previous response was inserted in the quote sorry about that i'm new here
gees I have to state the obvious, capital gain, again you are referring to an old case, if you buy & hold get an etf, mce was superior to wow for that period
Most people who do research themselves would have exited mce once it reached its peak & strangely enough its IV, at the time that call was made i agree with RM... I had an exit strategy.
There are no hard and fast rules around this. And don’t believe you can come up with a winning approach with a simple ‘sell when 20% above intrinsic value’ approach either.
What you MUST do is look at the future prospects. In particular, is the intrinsic value rising? I believe it is for Matrix (and I am not the only fund manager who does – you could ask my mate Chris too).
...
Personally I believe one of my most important contributions to the principles of value investing is the idea of future valuations. Nobody was talking about them at the time I started mentioning 2011 and 2012 Value.able valuations and rates of growth. They are important because we want to buy businesses with bright prospects. And a company whose intrinsic value is rising “at a good clip” demonstrates those bright prospects.
If you have more faith and conviction that the business will be more valuable in one, two and three years time, you may be willing to hold on. I am currently not rushing to sell Matrix, however I do hope for much lower prices (buy shares like you buy groceries…)
Anecdotal. And not necessarily my own. As I've mentioned before I haven't used the premium Morningstar/FA only Capital IQ.
In my limited use of Capital IQ I never noticed errors. I regularly spot them in the free Morningstar data.
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