Silver price discussion and analysis

[greggles]

Outperformed gold which was interesting. Perhaps the industrial use of silver is giving it an edge.

Could be. The fundamentals for silver have been strong for some time now with soaring demand and supply deficits. I think silver has been held back for a long time and over the next few years will move higher as mining production and refining costs increase due to higher inflation.

I'm firmly in the silver supply squeeze camp with supply being unable to keep up with demand and that imbalance driving the price higher.

 

[Sean K]

Could be. The fundamentals for silver have been strong for some time now with soaring demand and supply deficits. I think silver has been held back for a long time and over the next few years will move higher as mining production and refining costs increase due to higher inflation.

I'm firmly in the silver supply squeeze camp with supply being unable to keep up with demand and that imbalance driving the price higher.

How do we best trade it?

We have hardly any silver stocks on the ASX, silver is mostly a bi-product from multi metallic deposits, even overseas. I've got a stash of silver coins from the Mint but it's easier to just drive a computer. ETPMAG?

 

[greggles]

How do we best trade it?

We have hardly any silver stocks on the ASX, silver is mostly a bi-product from multi metallic deposits, even overseas. I've got a stash of silver coins from the Mint but it's easier to just drive a computer. ETPMAG?

View attachment 171071

When I see the silver price approaching support, I'll go long on PSLV with a reasonably tight stop. I'm not sure if PSLV is the best way to trade the silver spot price but I like the security of it and it does the job.

 

[Sean K]

When I see the silver price approaching support, I'll go long on PSLV with a reasonably tight stop. I'm not sure if PSLV is the best way to trade the silver spot price but I like the security of it and it does the job.

Added to the watch list, thanks.

 

[DaveTrade]

SLV is converging and has no trend so an alternative way of trading it would be to wait for it to break out of the pattern and trade that move.

 

[greggles]

Silver has always been more volatile than gold, but I sense an increase in silver price volatility recently and we may well be heading into a mighty battle between silver bulls and bears.

Managed money is now over $1 Billion net short in notional value. A short covering rally would create fireworks. All silver needs is a catalyst. I'm not predicting anything specific, just pointing out that all the ingredients are there for a more volatile silver price.

 

[ducati916]

Oh, oh!

Is the magazine cover curse about to bite? Given the date (2 Feb.) possibly been and gone?

jog on
duc

 

[qldfrog]

View attachment 171215

Oh, oh!

Is the magazine cover curse about to bite? Given the date (2 Feb.) possibly been and gone?

jog on
duc

Could anyone whose barber mentioned silver post it, we might need to sell quick

 

[greggles]

Silver starting to rock and roll alongside gold amid a softening US dollar and desperate short covering. It will be interesting to see how this plays out in the coming days but silver could easily go much higher if the bullish sentiment remains strong and short trades continue to be unwound.

 

[Sean K]

Silver still overall lagging gold.

Would be interested in an updated long term correlation if there is one. Only have up to 2017 ish. Silver underperformed overall.

Looks like important levels on the ETPMAG and Spot are 36 and 26.

 

[noirua]

https://x.com/realTimHack/status/1765153365187494135?s=20

 

[greggles]

Five year view.

Silver has been range trading between US$22 and US$25.50 for most of the last four years. It spent some time above that range in 2020 and 2021 and below it in 2022 but each time it has drifted back into the range.

US$24.50 looks like an important level and silver it flirting with it this evening. If it gets through there with conviction a lot of resistance will be behind it and we may see traders taking long positions and shorts unwinding.

Above US$25.50 it's anyone's guess where it could end up but if it gets above and stays above that level it could end up being for silver what US$2,000/oz was for gold.

 

[ducati916]

CBs and the East have been buying gold. Soon the POG will exclude large swathes of the peasants. They will buy silver.



Patience:



jog on
duc

 

[greggles]

Silver is holding up well but is struggling to break through US$24.50 with any conviction. Sentiment appears to be turning as traders turn bearish on the $US and gold starts to shine.

Central banks have been doing most of the gold buying in recent times and silver is making gains on the back of gold's bullishness. This could be the beginning of a longer term change in sentiment as investors turn away from US bonds and reserve currencies and look to alternative currencies such as precious metals and Bitcoin to further mitigate risk.

I read the following paragraph on another website that kind of sums things up well:

Analysts at ANZ Bank recently said they expect central bank gold buying to remain hot for at least the next six years. According to these analysts, "Depleted trust in the U.S. fixed-income assets and the rise of non-reserve currencies are other themes that could support central bank gold buying."

 

[greggles]

Silver is holding up well but is struggling to break through US$24.50 with any conviction.

I spoke too soon. Last night silver broke through US$24.50 with conviction this time and is holding around the US$25 level in today's trading. Last night's move is a bullish one for silver and could be signalling a change in sentiment towards the much maligned metal. Precious metals generally are looking very strong at the moment and It's a good place to be in today's market with so much uncertainty and risk.

The next couple of weeks are going to be a critical time for silver. If it holds above US$24.50 (or even better US$25) it could indicate that the precious metals bull market that many analysts predicted for 2024 could now be well underway. But silver has a way of surging quickly and then retreating back to old support levels, but when the pull back happens it usually happens just as quickly as the price rise.

So we should know by the end of March what silver has in store for traders and investors in the short term.

 

[mullokintyre]

Another bagging of the LBMA, with some interesting accusations re the rigging on the silver market.
There seems to be a perennial pending shortage of silver.
Maybe like some of my stock calls, it might end up being right.




Mick

 

[mullokintyre]

Another bagging of the LBMA, with some interesting accusations re the rigging on the silver market.
There seems to be a perennial pending shortage of silver.
Maybe like some of my stock calls, it might end up being right.




Mick

 

[greggles]

Silver price up around 12% since 28 February. Unlike the spike in November, this move feels like there is some substance behind it. No retraces of any note so far with the buying pressure remaining constant. Some resistance up ahead but if silver gets through US$26.50 it will be just blue sky ahead.

 

[mullokintyre]

Silver price up around 12% since 28 February. Unlike the spike in November, this move feels like there is some substance behind it. No retraces of any note so far with the buying pressure remaining constant. Some resistance up ahead but if silver gets through US$26.50 it will be just blue sky ahead.

Yep, starting to get a small inkling that this is sustainable.
In the US markets overnight when gold fell a little, Silver kept going up and finished up 1.8% on the day.
Closing above $25 is significant.
Mick

 

[greggles]

Indian silver imports surged in February.