Silver price discussion and analysis

[Sean K]

You saw it first here folks.

 

[greggles]

$48?! Pffffft! I prefer $1528 like the video on the last page predicted.

I've been watching the price action this morning and it does seem like someone (plural) with deep pockets is trying to keep a lid on the price. It can't just be profit taking because the periodic sell offs are too steep, too sudden and too calculated. There is definitely a massive war going on in the silver market between bulls and bears and the bulls are winning, which is a rare thing for silver. Traders and investors are finally hungry for it, and there is also the added bonus of it being dragged up by gold.

I think we will see $30 this year, just based on the huge change in sentiment we have seen sine late February. Precious metals are hot and I can't see any reason for a change in sentiment any time soon.

 

[mullokintyre]

$48?! Pffffft! I prefer $1528 like the video on the last page predicted.

I've been watching the price action this morning and it does seem like someone (plural) with deep pockets is trying to keep a lid on the price. It can't just be profit taking because the periodic sell offs are too steep, too sudden and too calculated. There is definitely a massive war going on in the silver market between bulls and bears and the bulls are winning, which is a rare thing for silver. Traders and investors are finally hungry for it, and there is also the added bonus of it being dragged up by gold.

I think we will see $30 this year, just based on the huge change in sentiment we have seen sine late February. Precious metals are hot and I can't see any reason for a change in sentiment any time soon.

I would suggest is part of s short squeeze.
The buyers are demanding delivery, the shorters are offering pixie dust.
Was always going to come to this at some point, it has always suprised mr this did not happen years ago.
Mick

 

[qldfrog]

$48?! Pffffft! I prefer $1528 like the video on the last page predicted.

I've been watching the price action this morning and it does seem like someone (plural) with deep pockets is trying to keep a lid on the price. It can't just be profit taking because the periodic sell offs are too steep, too sudden and too calculated. There is definitely a massive war going on in the silver market between bulls and bears and the bulls are winning, which is a rare thing for silver. Traders and investors are finally hungry for it, and there is also the added bonus of it being dragged up by gold.

I think we will see $30 this year, just based on the huge change in sentiment we have seen sine late February. Precious metals are hot and I can't see any reason for a change in sentiment any time soon.

30$? You mean falling?

 

[greggles]

30$? You mean falling?

Sorry, US$30. I forgot to add the US$ in my post above.

 

[qldfrog]

Sorry, US$30. I forgot to add the US$ in my post above.

I thought so , then multiplied by 1.5 and was still puzzled so my post...and then I realised I forgot how low the AUD is lately.my mistake

 

[greggles]

India's getting serious about silver. 2,295 metric tons is a huge amount for one month. Will be interesting how their imports stack up for the rest of the year. With gold becoming out of reach for most in the developing world, people will turn to silver. After all, silver is a poor man's gold.

MUMBAI (Reuters) - India's silver imports surged by 260% in February to a record high, as lower duties encouraged large purchases from the United Arab Emirates (UAE), government and industry officials told Reuters, adding they were on track to increase by 66% this year.

Higher demand in India, the world's biggest silver consumer, could support global prices trading near their highest in three years.

India imported a record 2,295 metric tons of silver in February, up from 637 tons in January, said a government official, who declined to be named as he was not authorised to talk to the media.

India's February silver imports hit record and set to rise 66% this year

India's silver imports surged by 260% in February to a record high, as lower duties encouraged large purchases from the United Arab Emirates (UAE), government and industry officials told Reuters, adding they were on track to increase by 66% this year. Higher demand in India, the world's biggest...

au.finance.yahoo.com

 

[finicky]

20 year chart Silver in Indian Rupee

 

[Sean K]

20 year chart Silver in Indian Rupee

View attachment 174445

Similar long term C&H to gold.

 

[greggles]

Silver now at 11 year highs. There were a couple of days in 2020 and 2021 where it saw higher, but these were just intraday price spikes and it closed much lower each time. This bull run looks like it has legs. Silver is just about to break through US$29 and looks like it could easily hit US$30 next week if the run continues.

In AUD terms, silver is up almost 32% in less than 3 months. Crazy.

 

[mullokintyre]

Silver now at 11 year highs. There were a couple of days in 2020 and 2021 where it saw higher, but these were just intraday price spikes and it closed much lower each time. This bull run looks like it has legs. Silver is just about to break through US$29 and looks like it could easily hit US$30 next week if the run continues.

In AUD terms, silver is up almost 32% in less than 3 months. Crazy.

The all time high for silver in USD was around 48.50 back in mid April of 2011.
At the time, the AUD/USD pair were close to parity, so the all time high for silver in AUD is around the same, maybe a bit less.
I keep waiting for a correction.
May it not come for some time, at least till I have taken all the profits on offer.

Mick

 

[greggles]

The all time high for silver in USD was around 48.50 back in mid April of 2011.
At the time, the AUD/USD pair were close to parity, so the all time high for silver in AUD is around the same, maybe a bit less.
I keep waiting for a correction.
May it not come for some time, at least till I have taken all the profits on offer.

Mick

Silver is now at A$45.64 and is at an all time high in AUD. The bullish move in April has been incredible. I'm not sure I've ever seen such relentless buying pressure as I've seen with silver in the last few days. It seems to be a combination of short covering, BRICS buying, and God knows who else at this stage. Those who need it for industrial purposes must also be buying to lock in the lowest price they can.

Silver breached US$29.50 not long ago so I'm guessing it will take a crack at US$30 very soon but I don't think it will get through there. It's moved too far too quickly and US$30 represents a powerful psychological level so it will probably take a breather fairly soon.

However, if Iran attacks Israel all bets are off when it comes to precious metals.

 

[Sean K]

Silver paused to consolidate a bit, perhaps. Been a great run since the break up from the downward trend. Would be nice to hover around these 4 year highs for a launch to the next multi year highs.

 

[Sean K]

Does anyone know what happened in 2010? Are we about to see it again?

Around 20 bucks was a top and now we have 30 bucks holding us up. Once it breaches does it go to 50 in short time?

 

[greggles]

Does anyone know what happened in 2010? Are we about to see it again?

I was curious about this too so I took a look at the news of the time and was shocked by what I found. The reasons for silver's skyrocketing price was actually nothing out of the ordinary but a mix of economic and geopolitical conditions that caused investors and traders to pile into it.

Take a look at this BBC article from April 2011. Weaker US dollar, Middle East and North African tensions, hedge against inflation etc. But this is the core of it:

Much of the rise in both metals is seen as the flipside of a decline in the US dollar.

"It's the dollar play," said a Singapore-based dealer, referring to the gold rally. "There is more room for prices to go even higher."

The greenback has been steadily declining against most other currencies since the end of the financial crisis.

With the US central bank, the Federal Reserve, pumping unprecedented amounts into the financial markets, there are fears the dollar may lose its status as the favourite reserve currency of the world's central banks, with precious metals being an obvious alternative.

On Wednesday, the Fed chairman, Ben Bernanke, is expected to affirm its commitment to quantitative easing, a programme to flood money markets with liquidity.

The scary thing is that everything that sent it north so quickly back then is much worse now, especially US debt, increases in the money supply and geopolitical tensions. Throw in higher interest rates, higher inflation, a war on the US dollar and a cost of living crisis and who knows where we could end up.

 

[noirua]

Nov 15, 2023

 

[greggles]

Uptrend that commenced at the end of February is still intact despite pullbacks. Silver looking very bullish in the last week and we could see another crack at US$30 either this week or next.

 

[UMike]

KCN is certainly banking on it.

 

[greggles]

Good overview of the case for silver in this video.

 

[Dona Ferentes]

Silver Futures COMEX​

And silver gest the gold!​

Given that today I published Part 1 of my two-parter on silver and ASX silver stocks, I thought it would be a good time to catch up on this chart, after all I haven’t run it here since the ChartWatch on 30 April.

Silver was at an interesting juncture then, and I suggested “white candles and or downward pointing shadows into 26.26-26.85 would be telltale signals of incoming demand.”

I kinda nailed it, because that’s exactly what occurred. Then, after silver logged that big white candle on 6 May closing back above the short term uptrend ribbon, there really has been zero looking back.

The very shallow pullback to 27.24, followed by the big white candle on 9 May confirmed the resumption of the short and long term uptrends. The price has since continued to probe overhead supply above 29.29, logging almost exclusively demand-side candles.

Note that the last candle in the chart above is today’s fledgling 16 May candle. Discount it. The second from last candle for 15 May is the key one to note – again it’s big and it’s white. There’s plenty of excess demand around.

Silver is going to require every bit of this demand, however, if the supply lurking at the 30.19 high is to be soaked up and dispensed with.

Above there, you’ll have to zoom out to the weekly chart to find the next major points of supply at 31.21 and 32.76.

There’s nothing in the current technicals to suggest that silver can’t dislodge 30.19, and therefore probe those two higher supply points.

Still, one should never assume. There’s still work to be done.

Continued white bodied candles and or downward pointing shadows between here and demand between 28.18-29.00 will confirm the demand side is just biding its time – and the breakout is pending.

On the other hand, big black bodies and or upward pointing shadows would signal the supply side is resolute at 30.19, and enough of these candles could set silver up for a double top pattern.
.
.. the Livewire Markets guy