Silver price discussion and analysis

[peter2]

Silver has fallen to an important level ($22/oz). If it doesn't get support here then it's going down to $20/oz. I'd be very tempted to buy at $20/oz. I'm even a little tempted by $22.


I might have a nibble at the silver ETF (SLV). The ASX silver stock that I'm watching is IVR.

 

[Sean K]

Silver has fallen to an important level ($22/oz). If it doesn't get support here then it's going down to $20/oz. I'd be very tempted to buy at $20/oz. I'm even a little tempted by $22.

View attachment 134083
I might have a nibble at the silver ETF (SLV). The ASX silver stock that I'm watching is IVR.

Agree. $18 would be a screaming buy. It almost doesn't matter where you get in at this stage if you have a 5 year horizon, IMO.

 

[qldfrog]

Silver has fallen to an important level ($22/oz). If it doesn't get support here then it's going down to $20/oz. I'd be very tempted to buy at $20/oz. I'm even a little tempted by $22.

View attachment 134083
I might have a nibble at the silver ETF (SLV). The ASX silver stock that I'm watching is IVR.

Have to say that for the last month, silver has ensure a daily overall loss: rain or shine: I am heavily exposed

 

[Sean K]

Have to say that for the last month, silver has ensure a daily overall loss: rain or shine: I am heavily exposed

There's no hedge?

 

[qldfrog]

There's no hedge?

no, balanced with more long positions etc but no put or call play so yes it hurts.I usually do not hedge nor add Stop loss etc for what I see as long term positions aka 6m or more, years position.silver hurts, and AGL did too until I exit with major loss when they posted their woke announcement

 

[Joules MM1]

CRB hangs onto (back into) its channel

TVC:TRJEFFCRB Chart Image by JoulesMM1

www.tradingview.com

...for now

 

[DaveTrade]

Agree. $18 would be a screaming buy. It almost doesn't matter where you get in at this stage if you have a 5 year horizon, IMO.

Sean if you want to buy at a discount for the long term then you could sell puts at your price.

 

[qldfrog]

Sean if you want to buy at a discount for the long term then you could sell puts at your price.

true

 

[Sean K]

what I see as long term positions aka 6m or more, years

6m years is definitely a long term position.

 

[qldfrog]

6m years is definitely a long term position.

Ok rephrase 6 months or years....

 

[wayneL]

As we know, or should know by now, silver and gold are the most manipulated markets on the planet... Espeeeecially silver.

Our old friends JPMorgan keep getting caught, keep (happily) paying the fines, and keep making a motzah.

But.... this makes Silver the most undervalued commodity Evah! It just makes it a waiting game.

 

[qldfrog]

As we know, or should know by now, silver and gold are the most manipulated markets on the planet... Espeeeecially silver.

Our old friends JPMorgan keep getting caught, keep (happily) paying the fines, and keep making a motzah.

But.... this makes Silver the most undervalued commodity Evah! It just makes it a waiting game.

My view as well, just hurting now

 

[greggles]

Like copper, silver is heading inexorably towards a supply crunch but the market doesn't seem to be paying attention. Demand is soaring, especially in areas such as solar panel production, while supply is stagnating. The silver market was undersupplied by 237.7 million ounces in 2022 and there will be further undersupply this year and there is no reason to think that undersupply won't continue until mine production increases substantially. This imbalance will inevitably lead to higher silver prices.

However, I think silver will fall to around US$20/oz as it continues to track gold's current bearish turn. But sooner or later reality will take control of the silver market and I believe that we will see a bullish silver price that will eventually take us to all-time highs.

 

[frugal.rock]

Bowden's SVL coming in 4th

https://www.mining.com/web/mapped-the-10-largest-undeveloped-silver-deposits-in-the-world/

 

[Sean K]

(Kitco News) - A perfect storm is brewing in the silver market as the expected easing from the Chinese government to support its faltering economy is squeezing shorts in the marketplace and driving prices significantly higher.

September Silver last traded at $24.355 an ounce, up nearly 4% on the day. The precious metal is seeing its best day since mid-July as it regains critical technical levels.

Ole Hansen, head of commodity trading at Saxo Bank, said silver’s current short squeeze started building last week when the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) intervened in currency markets to support the yuan after it hit a 16-year low against the U.S. dollar.

“The stronger yuan forced a focus change in copper, and with that also silver,” Hansen said.

Analysts said that the central bank’s easing measure at the start of the week could provide further industrial support to the precious metal.
The renewed focus on industrial demand came as sentiment in silver was at extremely bearish levels. Three weeks ago, speculative interest turned net-short by nearly 4,000, according to data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Updated data published last week saw bearish sentiment hit its highest level since early March.

“So, short-covering and tailwind from a recovering industrial metal sector are [in my opinion] the key drivers, spiced up with added momentum following the technical break above the 21-, 50- and 200-day moving averages, all three located between 23.31 and 23.51,” said Hansen.

Analysts also noted that both silver and gold are benefiting from some safe-haven flows as disappointing economic data pushes U.S. bond yields off their recent highs. Although the Federal Reserve could maintain higher interest rates for longer, the hope that they are done raising rates is generating some bullish interest in gold and silver, according to some analysts.

Although short squeezes by nature aren’t sustainable, some analysts said that silver has room to move higher in the near term. Julia Cordova, founder of Cordovatrades.com, said she is watching a bid resistance zone between $24.495 and $24.58 an ounce.

 

[mullokintyre]

On a slightly different not, I see that two blokes have been jailed for Precious metal manipulation.
from AFR

New York | The former head of the JPMorgan precious-metals business and his top gold trader were convicted in Chicago on charges they manipulated markets for years, handing the US government a win in its long crackdown on bogus “spoofing” orders.

Michael Nowak and Gregg Smith were found guilty on Wednesday (Thursday AEST) by a federal jury after a three-week trial and more than eight days of deliberations.

Prosecutors presented evidence that included detailed trading records, chat logs and testimony by former co-workers who “pulled back the curtain” on how Nowak and Smith moved precious-metals prices up and down for profit from 2008 to 2016.
Spoofing, which was outlawed in the US in 2010 by the Dodd-Frank Act, is the practice of quickly placing and withdrawing buy and sell orders to create a false impression of demand.
A salesman on the bank’s precious-metals desk, Jeffrey Ruffo, was acquitted of charges he took part in the conspiracy.

"The former head of JPMorgan Chase & Co.'s precious-metals desk and his top trader today were sentenced to prison for spoofing, fraud, and attempted market manipulation.

Michael Nowak, who ran gold and silver trading at the bank, and trader Gregg Smith were sentenced in Chicago by U.S. District Judge Edmond Chang. Nowak received a term of one year and one day while Smith was given two years, the stiffest sentence yet in a recent government crackdown on questionable trading practices."

It comes as absolutely no surprise that execs from Jp Morgan were involved.
When an org has the ethics of mafia mobster and morals of a Russian mercenary, they are but collateral damage , and will be very well rewarded when they get out.
It will not stop the likes of JPM and the other big commercials from manipulating the PM market, but maybe there is someone in the SEC with the cajones to go after the big boys.
Mick

 

[greggles]

I had a feeling it was going to make a move soon but I didn't think it was going to be that soon. I thought that precious metals had a little further to fall yet.

One other factor I forgot to mention that will help silver along is this push towards dedollarisation. I'm expecting a weaker US dollar in the coming years following the huge amounts of money printing and government spending in recent times which will both no doubt continue. US debt levels are ballooning. The real move away from fiat currencies, when it comes, will be to precious metals, not crypto.

 

[greggles]

I noticed today that an AUD weekly silver chart shows that it has been trading in a channel for the last 18 months. It looks to be in the midst of another bullish charge similar to its March price action.

 

[greggles]

Silver has been bouncing off support at around $22.90 for the last few days. Buyers are seeing value at this level. Watch for tonight's US inflation figures to determine silver's direction in the near term.

 

[greggles]

After bottoming out around a week ago, silver has started to charge back in the last 24 hours. The bulls have taken control and I think we will see a serious push tonight to test the US$24 level.