Silver price discussion and analysis

[sreeve]

Some nice sideways price action for silver in the last 2 years or so. anything under $28 has been a good buying point.



~ Scott

 

[young-gun]

So in all the gold excitement poor old silver, which has actually been flogged even harder I believe, has gone un-noticed? Is anyone stocking up on this low, from what I can see it hasn't been at these prices since late 2010.

 

[CanOz]

Gold Losses Pale Beside Silver’s Two-Year Drop: Chart of the Day
2013-04-16 04:00:01.2 GMT

By David Wilson
April 16 (Bloomberg) -- Gold’s plunge in the past two
trading days came nowhere near delivering the kind of losses
that investors in another precious metal, silver, endured the
past two years.
As the CHART OF THE DAY illustrates, silver for immediate
delivery tumbled 53 percent from its April 2011 closing high of
$48.44 an ounce through yesterday. Gold was higher throughout
most of this period. The chart compares spot prices for the
metals in the top panel.
One ounce of gold was equivalent to 59.22 ounces of silver
as of yesterday, as the bottom panel shows. The ratio rose from
31.7 ounces at silver’s peak two years ago and surpassed its
2012 high of 58.9 ounces, set in June.
“Silver needs more of a push from investment demand and
industrial demand than gold,” George Gero, a vice president and
precious-metals strategist in New York for RBC Capital Markets,
said yesterday in an interview. “Nobody’s really adding silver
to their inventory.”
Jewelry, silverware, coins and other investments accounted
for 47 percent of demand in 2011, according to figures compiled
by the Washington-based Silver Institute. The rest was used for
consumer electronics, solar cells, batteries, photographic film
and additional products.
Silver tumbled 18 percent in the past two days, exceeding a
14 percent loss for gold. Yet the decline in silver was only the
biggest since September 2011, according to data compiled by
Bloomberg. Gold had its steepest slide since February 1983.

For Related News and Information:
World silver statistics: WSII <GO>
Precious metals prices and rates: MTL <GO>
Commodity market top stories: TOP CMD <GO>
Charts, graphs home page: CHART <GO>

--Editors: Jeff Sutherland, Michael P. Regan

To contact the reporter on this story:
David Wilson in New York at +1-212-617-2248 or
dwilson@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story:
Chris Nagi at +1-212-617-2179 or
chrisnagi@bloomberg.net

 

[Trembling Hand]

This chart actually looks very sick. Gold as nasty as the last few days have been doesn't look anywhere as damaged technically as Silver. Early 2011 is now looking like a blow-off top with the fast declines then slow retraces up not ever reaching old recent highs.

 

[Mr Z]

Silver does that, focus on gold, that will give you a better idea of where silver actually is. IMO there is no way they separate in any meaningful way, 2011 was a real anomaly.

 

[Trembling Hand]

Silver does that, focus on gold, that will give you a better idea of where silver actually is. IMO there is no way they separate in any meaningful way, 2011 was a real anomaly.

Well seems like an easy tech call. Given the large amount of volume swapping hands here you would expect a good bounce but its been clearly making lower highs. Until such I time it makes a higher high of some sort I think thats called a down trend.

If you follow squiggly lines that is.

 

[pavilion103]

In the last week I've had two people who don't know anything about the markets tell me to invest in silver. One of them said that all his friends were getting on board and all excited.

Either they have all become investing geniuses over night or they are looking to gamble a few dollars lol.

I don't follow silver closely but the chart doesn't look too flash. I told them IF they wanted to buy wait for a base to establish, a breakout and a retest. At least wait until it isn't trending down.

I'm no expert but just found it amusing how everyone is so confident about something they know nothing about.

 

[explod]

Silver has been a bit of a problem as there is less silver than gold. It gets used industrially in growing directions too. That is why the paper contracts for it are now 200ounces to 1ounce physical. Anyone in silver ETF's will lose their shirts when the music stops.

So silver is speacial and has to be squashed as its break out when it comes in my view will be enourmous. Gold as the canary in the cage on weakening paper money cannot have a huge jump in silver leading it up and away till all is set.

In one day late last week a whole years production was traded.

Roughly an ounce of physical silver to buy is reaching Aus$45 (If lining up in the growing ques u can get it) whilst the official paper Kirtco chart price is $28.00 So those who think it may be a bit of a joke ought to have another think in my humble view.

Rambling plod,........................yeh maybe.

 

[zac]

Anyone in silver ETF's will lose their shirts when the music stops.

.

What do you mean by that?

 

[Trembling Hand]

Silver has been a bit of a problem as there is less silver than gold. It gets used industrially in growing directions too. That is why the paper contracts for it are now 200ounces to 1ounce physical. Anyone in silver ETF's will lose their shirts when the music stops.

So silver is speacial and has to be squashed as its break out when it comes in my view will be enourmous. Gold as the canary in the cage on weakening paper money cannot have a huge jump in silver leading it up and away till all is set.

In one day late last week a whole years production was traded.

Roughly an ounce of physical silver to buy is reaching Aus$45 (If lining up in the growing ques u can get it) whilst the official paper Kirtco chart price is $28.00 So those who think it may be a bit of a joke ought to have another think in my humble view.

Rambling plod,........................yeh maybe.

Explod you have gone on with this rubbish for years. Every time I ask you to explain what the hell you mean when the open interest for the contract just about exactly equals one years production. Where is the problem? Or is it that you really have no idea what you are talking about?

WHAT DO YOU MEAN by quoting 1 days turnover of a contract? What has that got to do with anything?

 

[skc]

When you go to a physical silver / gold bullion dealer, what price do you pay?

1. The prevailing spot gold / silver price?

or

2. Some other price as determined by the dealer?

I've never been to one of these joints so geniune question.

 

[prawn_86]

When you go to a physical silver / gold bullion dealer, what price do you pay?

1. The prevailing spot gold / silver price?

or

2. Some other price as determined by the dealer?

I've never been to one of these joints so geniune question.

A bit of both. In theory their prices should be based on a spread off the spot rate, although that spread has probably widened a lot with the recent volatility

 

[pavilion103]

Look at this one. Some heavy volume there, particularly today. Will be interesting to see if price consolidates now and forms a base or if it continues lower. It looks like there is some sort of support here.

 

[Trembling Hand]

Look at this one. Some heavy volume there, particularly today.

That data is wrong. Also Pav if you are going to use Vol analysis on futs you are going to have to learn how to deal with rollovers. On a daily chart I'm not sure how you will be able to do that.

 

[Mr Z]

A bit of both. In theory their prices should be based on a spread off the spot rate, although that spread has probably widened a lot with the recent volatility

It has widened with availability, the shelves are low on stock and premiums are up to buy and sell and waits are up on much of the product that is out of stock. Been heading that way with dip buying for two months, now it is off the Richter scale by all reports.

Spot plus whatever the market will stand is the general answer. e.g. ASE's can carry a big premium when 90% is almost at spot, you have to know about what you want. Bullion is best, the bigger the cheaper per oz with 1000oz bars being the cheapest.

 

[Trembling Hand]

Oh thats an ETF.....

Disregard last post....


Though considering it seems to be way off as far as vol goes to the far far more liquid contract maybe it is useless.

 

[Trembling Hand]

Spot plus whatever the market will stand is the general answer. e.g. ASE's can carry a big premium when 90% is almost at spot, you have to know about what you want. Bullion is best, the bigger the cheaper per oz with 1000oz bars being the cheapest.

Does it really matter how much is available in coins and small lots? All this talk about dudes lining up in corridors to buy a few coins to me means nothing. Thats not where the real $$ comes from. Its like a **** stock as it falls, PEN for example, the lower it gets the more the punters like it. Though it keeps going lower. I'd be interested if the Perth mint comes out as says they cannot supply LARGE orders.

Its all just part of the Gold Bugs spiel. You still need the price to be rising. Which it seems not to be.









Not sure why I bother making this comment...................... I already know the answer....

 

[Mr Z]

Does it really matter how much is available in coins and small lots? All this talk about dudes lining up in corridors to buy a few coins to me means nothing. Thats not where the real $$ comes from. Its like a **** stock as it falls, PEN for example, the lower it gets the more the punters like it. Though it keeps going lower. I'd be interested if the Perth mint comes out as says they cannot supply LARGE orders.

Its all just part of the Gold Bugs spiel. You still need the price to be rising. Which it seems not to be.:

In aggregate the small buyers do count for quite a bit and it is mainly the product that they buy that is short. It also depends what you call small, I'm hearing from dealers that routinely sell in the 1m to 10m range, yes that is small when you look at most other markets, but its not bad in PM's for private client physical buyers. In previous episodes like this the larger bars slowly go then you get down to the 1000oz bars in silver being the only product readily available. Perth Mint has run dry/low before, but really all it means is that demand has out stripped the rate of supply not that they can't get the metal. It is just the wait that make people nervous, silver has been out to 3 months before.... it is not a big supply chain in the scheme of things. Larger clients of the Perth Mint use Depositary Services, typically they don't take delivery so the off the shelf requirement is not there. These are the guys I deal with.

 

[Mr Z]

Oh thats an ETF.....

Disregard last post....


Though considering it seems to be way off as far as vol goes to the far far more liquid contract maybe it is useless.

What about the continuous contract aggregations you see. Are they reliable volume numbers in your experience?

 

[Mr Z]

Its all just part of the Gold Bugs spiel. You still need the price to be rising. Which it seems not to be.

Not sure why I bother making this comment...................... I already know the answer....

Oh yeah.... and in the real world, beyond your screen, this type of buyer reaction has been a very reliable indicator of an approaching high or low. Now it ain't a high is it?

With respect TH, you seem to have taken the worst of what you can find with the PM crowd and applied it to the whole group. Take it easy mate, it is not all rubbish, just as much as it is not all true.

I know you didn't get the answer you expected.