Silver price discussion and analysis

[explod]

Based on a calculation of kilo bars on ebay the average bid for pysical silver per ounce is Aus$34.50

The paper spot price is Aus$22.60

As it is of interest to me personally, and for the benefit of my ASF friends, I intend to conduct this service each Sunday,,, free of charge.

Sorry, a day late, busy moving back to the city, with the price drop not so worried anymore.

Larger sample this week of 7 kilos in total. Average ebay AU$35.25oz

AU spot $23.47

Todays prices. So spread about the same but chart is bullish so far.

This assesment only relates to pure silver bars, not coins.

 

[explod]

http://inteligenciafinancieraglobal.blogspot.mx/2013/04/explota-demanda-de-onzas-de-plata-en.html

The Mexicans are getting the idea too.

Increasing demand for a finite product tells me the only way is up.

In my readings (many sources, google can confirm) that because silver is being used industrially (no longer in photography) for mobile phones, solar panels, hospitals etc, there is less of it on surface than physical gold. The amounts used in each item are miniscule so a large price hike will not effect the industrial costs to any great extent.

 

[Ann]

$19.xx ???

Looking at the monthly charts it appears to have support around the $19.50 level. Looking at the quarterly charts the support level doesn't cut in 'till $18. So as I read it, it suggests a range of support from $18 to $19.50.

 

[Mr Z]

It is silver, it will be where it is when gold bottoms.... at the end of the day it is not often she goes it alone.

This is assuming that I am right and gold has not already bottom as most of the bug camp seem to have it!

Still plumbing for mid to late May, maybe sooner but ?!

 

[explod]

To me on the monthly (depending on close tonight) we will have breached support at about the US$28 level.

The quarterly we will not know till the end of June and support could well hold by that time, which by then would be about US$32.

 

[Ann]

To me on the monthly (depending on close tonight) we will have breached support at about the US$28 level.

The quarterly we will not know till the end of June and support could well hold by that time, which by then would be about US$32.

G'day Explod

What Z and I are talking about is should Silver fail, which my charts are clearly indicating at the moment, the quoted prices are potential support levels after a fall.

The quarterly charts have well and truly breached the $32 level, $32 is now part of a resistance level. For the quarterlies we are waiting to see if the $28 support remains breached and becomes a resistance line or if it can clamber back above and remain a support line. I think highly unlikely by the current enormously bearish chart pattern I am seeing on the daily chart. If you missed it...here is a link. https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=2088&p=768921&viewfull=1#post768921

I have included a quarterly chart showing the quoted support and resistance and Explod's $32 level.

 

[Ann]

Close of April on the monthly chart shows silver failing to hold above the $28 support line and that level will now become a resistance line for future upward movement. The next major level of support is $20.

 

[explod]

n

Close of April on the monthly chart shows silver failing to hold above the $28 support line and that level will now become a resistance line for future upward movement. The next major level of support is $20.

In this business I do have a problem with the word will.

I notice that your support and resistance levels are measured on the horizontal plane. Since I became interested in charting in 1968 it did take some time to realise that there are many other lines to an overall guide to support and resistance levels, and to strength. And as tech/a loves to remind us, volume/=sentiment at those junctures is paramount.

With your last candle the tail down is most often a sign of a reversal.

However we shall see.

 

[Ann]

In this business I do have a problem with the word will.

Not sure why you have a problem with the word 'will' Explod...once a price falls under an accepted support line, that line by its very nature becomes a resistance line, fact. This is not saying it will be impossible for a price to regain its position above the resistance and then return the level to support, simply saying it will become a resistance for as long as the price remains below a certain figure, in this instance $28.

I notice that your support and resistance levels are measured on the horizontal plane. Since I became interested in charting in 1968 it did take some time to realise that there are many other lines to an overall guide to support and resistance levels, and to strength. And as tech/a loves to remind us, volume/=sentiment at those junctures is paramount.

I have taken some time to realize there are more than horizontal support and resistance, in fact many many years of constant practice and refining my art of charting. Here is a link to a few of my charts featuring a range of support and resistance levels....even a couple of curvy lines of support! https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=2366&p=715544&viewfull=1#post715544

The recent daily chart I am watching for silver has support and resistance lines for the chart shape of the very bearish upward tilting megaphone, neither line is horizontal and yes I do take volume into account as well. Link https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=2088&p=768921&viewfull=1#post768921

With your last candle the tail down is most often a sign of a reversal.

However we shall see.

Many years ago I took a lot of time to study 'kangaroo tails' but eventually decided they were relatively unrealiable as a directional indicator.

 

[CanOz]

GOLD/Oil everything got hammered this arvo...we've broken balance to the downside in a big way this evening....

 

[Ann]

This chart for silver appears to have a very bearish Ascending Broadening Wedge (magaphone tilted upward). A very dangerous pattern which can have quite a nasty fall when and if it falls down out of the megaphone shape.

Over several months I watched the quarterly gold chart also forming this shape. The result was carnage for the gold price when it fell out of the megaphone shape. Here is a link to the gold chart just before it fell spectacularly. #9801 https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=2366&page=491

Will this megaphone herald the same with silver's price as it did with gold? Let's see!

I am using a different chart as my normal chart does not show volume and volume plays a roll in the shape's definition which I have included on the chart.

Silver is still holding within the bearish Megaphone shape but moving closer to the lower level support. This needs to be watched. Here is a link to the chart I posted for anyone interested. https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=2088&p=768921&viewfull=1#post768921

 

[explod]

Not sure why you have a problem with the word 'will' Explod...once a price falls under an accepted support line, that line by its very nature becomes a resistance line, fact. This is not saying it will be impossible for a price to regain its position above the resistance and then return the level to support, simply saying it will become a resistance for as long as the price remains below a certain figure, in this instance $28.



I have taken some time to realize there are more than horizontal support and resistance, in fact many many years of constant practice and refining my art of charting. Here is a link to a few of my charts featuring a range of support and resistance levels....even a couple of curvy lines of support! https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=2366&p=715544&viewfull=1#post715544

The recent daily chart I am watching for silver has support and resistance lines for the chart shape of the very bearish upward tilting megaphone, neither line is horizontal and yes I do take volume into account as well. Link https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=2088&p=768921&viewfull=1#post768921




Many years ago I took a lot of time to study 'kangaroo tails' but eventually decided they were relatively unrealiable as a directional indicator.

My own experience is that one can not take any particular indicator too seriously. Kangaroo tails, as you describe are fairly reliable if looked at more as groups. The following SLV weekly for the last 2 years when looked at overall does indicate changes of direction with some reliability in my eyes.

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/ad...alse&chartStyleToggle=false&state=9&x=38&y=12

And as you say, the more minimal a chart the clearer the message.

Though we have a spinning top (slightly longer down though) between the outyer two for last three weeks, they indicate sufficient tails down for a possible change of direction to the upside.

The other indicator for me at this juncture is that the Commercials have never been so long p/m's since 2008. The dominant shorts this time are the small speculators who in my view are very much effected by the news and negative sentiment.

There is also a good old addage that says, "sell in boom and buy in gloom".

We shall see.

 

[Mr Z]

ANY technical formation, oscillator or indicator only offers some probability of success. In the end you cannot use T/A without supporting risk management and expect any degree of success. The back office rules this game!

 

[Ann]

My own experience is that one can not take any particular indicator too seriously. Kangaroo tails, as you describe are fairly reliable if looked at more as groups. The following SLV weekly for the last 2 years when looked at overall does indicate changes of direction with some reliability in my eyes.

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/ad...alse&chartStyleToggle=false&state=9&x=38&y=12

And as you say, the more minimal a chart the clearer the message.

Though we have a spinning top (slightly longer down though) between the outyer two for last three weeks, they indicate sufficient tails down for a possible change of direction to the upside.

There is also a good old addage that says, "sell in boom and buy in gloom".

The problem I have with candlesticks is one needs to wait for confirmation which is after the fact. I prefer to know what is happening before it actually happens. However if you have success with your choice of chart styles that is all that matters.

Your BigChart weekly doesn't seem to agree with the shape on my chart or on the Stockcharts.com chart for the weekly. Stockcharts.com have good free charts. Unfortunately they don't have Australian stocks. The code for silver on the 'sharpchart' is $silver. http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui

In fact we are not in gloom. The US markets are hitting all time highs, and the US jobless rate unexpectedly fell to a four-year low of 7.5 percent. There is a massive surplus of oil which should put downward pressure on the POO which will benefit industry.....hardly gloomy news IMO!

ANY technical formation, oscillator or indicator only offers some probability of success. In the end you cannot use T/A without supporting risk management and expect any degree of success.

Dead right Z, keep your stops up to date!

The back office rules this game!

...that works for me!

 

[explod]

I look at many charts and styles, for trend lines funnelling long term action I look at point and figure.

Agree that confirmation moves with candlesticks are the rules but I find rules do not adhere as much as we are promised.

And current surveys are finding doom in spite of the Dow etc.

 

[CanOz]

Silver is wound up like a top....

 

[pavilion103]

Silver is wound up like a top....

Interesting. Consolidating triangle on declining volume.

 

[CanOz]

Another day of balance within balance....

I'm long 1 silver mini. I can add on a volume break higher, or i'll get stopped out for a small loss on a break lower and immediately short 1 contract if we break on volume.

CanOz

 

[Mr Z]

I think I would tend to lean short silver here... given that pattern in the USDX.

 

[CanOz]

I think I would tend to lean short silver here... given that pattern in the USDX.

Yeah, there's been a bid on on the USD all day...I reckon we might fail high first though around 24.050...

We'll see...

CanOz