Silver price discussion and analysis

[Joules MM1]

....our particular interest is in the silver space, and that is where we see an elephant in the room that hasn’t made headlines yet.

Silver Sector Shrinking
Sean Rakhimov
|
Thursday, August 23rd

Bolivia, of course, was the latest in the news with nationalization of.....

Argentina...a direct quote from a news release dated July 2, 2012 by Geoff Burns, President & CEO of Pan American Silver commenting on the legislation proposed by the government of Chubut province of Argentina:

"This is an incredibly unfortunate development for the mining industry in the province of Chubut and in Argentina. Having made significant investments over the last two and a half years in work to prepare the world-class Navidad silver project for development, it is extremely disappointing that the government of Chubut would introduce this legislation without meaningful consultation with the mining industry. Since acquiring Navidad, we established a policy of open and honest communication with all levels of government as to our progress and plans and were surprised that we were not consulted on the economic effects that the proposed legislation would have on Navidad's development. I am convinced that it was the provincial government's intent with the new draft legislation, to define a path for the development of Navidad, not to render the project uneconomic. However, if the draft law is passed as submitted there can be no other choice currently than to stop investing further in the project".

....the silver sector is so small and the above mentioned countries collectively make up a big of chunk of it. According to CPM Group’s 2012 Silver Yearbook, the aforementioned countries are projected to produce some 170 Moz silver this year versus the anticipated total global silver production of 788 Moz. While at first glance that only makes up 21.6% of total annual mine supply, which in itself is significant, we submit that it represents an even greater percentage of “investible” silver production.

http://www.silverseek.com/article/silver-sector-shrinking-5826

 

[young-gun]

Silver seems to be on it's way down, any predictions on where its headed? I'm personally hoping back below 30 or lower if possible to stock up.

 

[Mr Z]

~ 30 mebe ~ 28 but I don't think so at this stage.

 

[young-gun]

Silver still heading lower, hopefully get under 30 in the next couple of weeks, or maybe sooner?

 

[Joules MM1]

twitteristercated:

willem middelkoop ‏@wmiddelkoop

25% of silver demand because of new technologies since 2000. Each iPhone needs 0.25 gr of silver. #SilverSummit

willem middelkoop ‏@wmiddelkoop

.. nearly 5 mln oz of silver withdrawn from a single COMEX depository in 3 days! 12% of the entire COMEX REGISERED SILVER INVENTORY 2-end
Expand
4h willem middelkoop willem middelkoop ‏@wmiddelkoop

Sprott: 3.6mln oz silver withdrawal from COMEX. The physical silver drain continued Tuesday, as a massive 1.2 mln additional oz withdrawn 1

studious, eh.....

 

[Joules MM1]

Silver-price-to-increase-400pc-in-three-years

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/...r-price-to-increase-400pc-in-three-years.html

and from my own pov

that article caught my eye especially given iTraders recent comments on the sever lack of physical supply or exchanges inablity to give a concise date of supply

interestingly the COT shows swaps dealers have moved from a 2 to 1 (flat) ratio of short positions on silver to a 1.5 to 1 ratio.....this is a big swing
my guess is that after all the energy of the central banks was withdrawn the swaps dealers saw that the money managers were 95% nett long and decided the MM's would be wrong
now, with the latest holding while equities have been on a sharp downswing in the US the swaps dealers are seeing a different ball game

I quipped about a technical Cup and Handle pattern a couple of weeks ago, but, all joking aside, with gold holding steady in the 1725
zone while the SPX is declining at speed, the ball game is different and that C&H pattern looks valid and will only fall apart if both gold and silver go back below recent hourlyy lows (31.70 silver)

in which case we are more likely to head below the triangle lows for gold, silver will follow, thus, the picture is very clear on a course of action on a daily pov:
short silver on break-out below 31.70 (not a retest, an actual impulsive break-down) and buy any break-out above 33.30 congestion zone

yearly uptrend looks very robust....even if the economies hit the skids (sic) silver should ascend and any strength will make for positive industrial background demand

 

[Joules MM1]

looks like the major moves for the next few weeks is complete in silver (and it's cousin, almost, 1629/30 looks a better base) should get a reprieve from the 3 bears .....not so much warm porridge tho.....



still plenty of points in the bag for close-up traders....punters and investors are more likely to find the long side tricky and nail biting....it's a pick-yer-spots game for the next few weeks

edit: both metals failed what should have been standard Cup/Handle patterns too.....orthodox shapes imply major break-down technicals

 

[young-gun]

looks like the major moves for the next few weeks is complete in silver (and it's cousin, almost, 1629/30 looks a better base) should get a reprieve from the 3 bears .....not so much warm porridge tho.....

View attachment 50054

still plenty of points in the bag for close-up traders....punters and investors are more likely to find the long side tricky and nail biting....it's a pick-yer-spots game for the next few weeks

edit: both metals failed what should have been standard Cup/Handle patterns too.....orthodox shapes imply major break-down technicals

I hope they both head lower so I can stock up, been waiting for silver to head lower for a while.

 

[explod]

On ebay notice that 1 kilo bars are now up to 25% above spot.

This is what will gradually brake the paper trade, supply .

The only safe place is in holding physical.

 

[young-gun]

This is what will gradually brake the paper trade .

Looking forward to that day.

 

[young-gun]

Looking pretty quiet in here, is there any silver bugs still getting round? I hope the lack of interesting price action isn't deterring people.

 

[CanOz]

SLV, flag on the weekly...trading opp?

 

[explod]

Looking pretty quiet in here, is there any silver bugs still getting round? I hope the lack of interesting price action isn't deterring people.

Not on your life, in my view it is still the only game in town.

The supply side is critically short, world production is decreasing, the need increasing,

just a matter of time.

 

[young-gun]

Not on your life, in my view it is still the only game in town.

The supply side is critically short, world production is decreasing, the need increasing,

just a matter of time.

The thing that gets me is why it hasn't already taken off. Everything I have read/watched indicates that there is currently less above ground silver than gold. Investor demand in the US is on its way up. I recently read china has just become a net importer of silver. As you say consumption of silver is increasing, and will only continue to do so as we dive further into the tech revolution.

Hope you're right and it is simply going to be a waiting game. Surely it won't go on for more than another year or two though.

Wish I had more cash for more bars.

 

[FlyingFox]

The thing that gets me is why it hasn't already taken off. Everything I have read/watched indicates that there is currently less above ground silver than gold. Investor demand in the US is on its way up. I recently read china has just become a net importer of silver. As you say consumption of silver is increasing, and will only continue to do so as we dive further into the tech revolution.

Hope you're right and it is simply going to be a waiting game. Surely it won't go on for more than another year or two though.

Wish I had more cash for more bars.

Probably because it is thought of primarily as an industrial metal rather than an investment one. Since silver coinage/currency stopped, it's perception as a store of wealth has waned. At least in India, silver was (is?) not converted as much as gold.When (If) this changes, the price will shoot up at the expense of industrial demand.

Would be interested in what amount of "paper" silver is out there compared to the real thing? By some estimates it is ~100X for gold.

 

[young-gun]

Probably because it is thought of primarily as an industrial metal rather than an investment one. Since silver coinage/currency stopped, it's perception as a store of wealth has waned. At least in India, silver was (is?) not converted as much as gold.When (If) this changes, the price will shoot up at the expense of industrial demand.

Would be interested in what amount of "paper" silver is out there compared to the real thing? By some estimates it is ~100X for gold.

I don't know that anyone can say for sure. I think a lot of people that trade the paper market are aware that their trades are likely not back by physical, it's just another trade for them.

Any industry using silver will simply have to pay the price, and pass the cost on to consumers. I read somewhere that extracting and then re-using silver from electronic devices etc would run at a cost of over $1000 per ounce. Which is good news also(if true). There will be a run for silver(and gold). There will be a stage of solid gains, followed by the huge bubble hopefully.

 

[FlyingFox]

I don't know that anyone can say for sure. I think a lot of people that trade the paper market are aware that their trades are likely not back by physical, it's just another trade for them.

True. Except if your holding very long term...

Any industry using silver will simply have to pay the price, and pass the cost on to consumers.

True unless there is an alternative available.

I read somewhere that extracting and then re-using silver from electronic devices etc would run at a cost of over $1000 per ounce. Which is good news also(if true). There will be a run for silver(and gold). There will be a stage of solid gains, followed by the huge bubble hopefully.

Not surprised at the elec costs. Sounds about right if you're doing this in a safe manner. Lol. Holding many bars are we : ?

 

[explod]

The thing that gets me is why it hasn't already taken off. Everything I have read/watched indicates that there is currently less above ground silver than gold. Investor demand in the US is on its way up. I recently read china has just become a net importer of silver. As you say consumption of silver is increasing, and will only continue to do so as we dive further into the tech revolution.

Hope you're right and it is simply going to be a waiting game. Surely it won't go on for more than another year or two though.

Wish I had more cash for more bars.

It is the very smart big money keeping the lid in silver whilst they accumulate the physical. With a Chairperson of US regulator resigning this week, Nadler getting the boot from kitko, and the US mint holding back sales of silver coins because they cannot keep up with supply due to lack of physical your patience may soon be rewarded.

 

[FlyingFox]

It is the very smart big money keeping the lid in silver whilst they accumulate the physical. With a Chairperson of US regulator resigning this week, Nadler getting the boot from kitko, and the US mint holding back sales of silver coins because they cannot keep up with supply due to lack of physical your patience may soon be rewarded.

Interesting. Might be time to get into silver and pick up a 5 kg bar or two.

 

[young-gun]

It is the very smart big money keeping the lid in silver whilst they accumulate the physical. With a Chairperson of US regulator resigning this week, Nadler getting the boot from kitko, and the US mint holding back sales of silver coins because they cannot keep up with supply due to lack of physical your patience may soon be rewarded.

Explod, I read everywhere about the whole 'keeping a lid on it' idea, yet it still seems 'unproven', but still widely assumed. The CFTC launched their investigation and apparently came up with nothing. Although then everyone just said the CFTC is is corrupt and were either bribed or forced into dropping it. Do you think there is an element of wishful thinking from silver bugs and bulls?

True. Except if your holding very long term...

True unless there is an alternative available.

Not surprised at the elec costs. Sounds about right if you're doing this in a safe manner. Lol. Holding many bars are we : ?

I hope no one is holding gold ETF's for the long term thinking they are sitting on a right to bullion. I'm sure there are some though.

Silver is very unique, and irreplaceable in most instances. No other substance has the same conductivity, and low resistance is essential for a lot of it's current applications - if not all?

I'm sure that as silver climbs high enough some entrepreneur will find a cheaper way to extract silver from devices and panels etc, I'm not sure that silver would ever climb to that level in my life-time but here's hoping.

As for the bars I'm holding, I won't be content until I'm sitting on 50kg's of silver