SFG - Seafarms Group

[iRod]

Re: COZ - CO2 Group

beatle

FYI

the legislation to allow a carbon price has already successfully gone through the Lower House, and is due to go through the Senate in the coming weeks (can someone tell me the exact date please).

senate-vote-carbon-price-next-tuesday

It's counterpart CCF made a modest rise (10%) on light volume today, maybe a rally on the way, & dragging COZ with it.


Regards

 

[beatle]

Re: COZ - CO2 Group

Most appreciative IRod for that. So the carbon pricing legislation will be formally accepted next week ..."The Labor government's controversial carbon tax is likely to pass the parliament early next week after Labor and the Greens agreed to truncate debate."

My view on this subject is that whether you agree with the carbon pricing legislation or not, it will be law and preparations for starting up of the scheme beginning on 1 July 2012 effectively start as soon as this legislation is passed. Thus all carbon emitters need to get their house in order now in readiness for that date.

I'm convinced this will result in many new contracts being written and announced by COZ covering new carbon credit agreements with major emitters. With COZ having at least $25 million and possibly as much $31 million cash in bank after the expiry of options on Nov 12 (next week) this provides the company with considerable capacity to undertake many initiatives related to the carbon credit scheme. By pure luck this is ideal timing for COZ when you consider that the next 8 months are crucial for emitters to expedite agreements prior to the legislation being applied next July.

Since COZ is the largest provider of carbon credit offsets in Australia, with a growing list of major corporates and Stage Government Departments already on its list of customers, has considerable cash at bank to undertake its activities, and has been busily building its business divisions for the forthcoming establishment of a carbon pricing scheme being approved, COZ should be a major player and benefactor of this new legislation.

 

[beatle]

Re: COZ - CO2 Group

COZ traded down 1.0 cent today, to 14.5 cents, on only slight volume, I suggest due to the expiring of the options which stopped trading today (and moved downwards to be 1.2 cents from 2.0 cents yesterday).

The next week or so could be a good time to accumulate COZ, as options are exercised and quoted over that period of time. Some may have to exercise but want to exit soon thereafter as they might not be able to afford to hold all the shares they have converted from options.

I will be picking at the opportunities, to build up a few more COZ, in readiness for the exciting times to come over the next months leading up to July 1, 2012.

 

[iRod]

Re: COZ - CO2 Group

COZ traded down 1.0 cent today, to 14.5 cents, on only slight volume, I suggest due to the expiring of the options which stopped trading today.

not quite - it seems Mon 7th is the last trading day of the options ... see today's ann

www.asx.com.au..Code=COZ

So keep those itchy fingers in check for a little longer!!

 

[beatle]

Re: COZ - CO2 Group

not quite - it seems Mon 7th is the last trading day of the options ... see today's ann

www.asx.com.au..Code=COZ

So keep those itchy fingers in check for a little longer!!

Once again IRod I'm most appreciative for your correcting my error in regard to the last trading day for COZO. As you state according to the announcement yesterday ..."CO2 Group Limited (the “Company”) reminds all option holders and potential option holders Monday 7 November 2011 is the last trading day in the Company’s listed options which expire on 12 November 2011."

In fact I spoke with the Company Secretary earlier on in the week (Tuesday) and he told me at that time that Friday was the last trading day. I imagine he was in error also as he must have been instructed by the exchange that since the company had agreed to extend cheques received on Monday 14 November (since 12 Nov is a Saturday) that the last trading day must be the Monday.

So I apologise for my incorrect post yesterday, and it proves to me that word of mouth is not always the final word - as it turns out I didn't even bother to read the last date of trading in that announcement, just relied on what I had been told. Quite an error!!!

Well I would suggest that once companies start entering contracts for carbon credits with COZ my slip up will be seen as negligible when the COZ share price gets traction. I can see a major move up at the announcement of even the next major deal, as it will signify the business is FINALLY open for business with the new legislation in place. Thereafter its likely that the floodgates will be open to accept considerable new business!

 

[beatle]

Re: COZ - CO2 Group

A great announcement for COZ regarding its other business focus, in New Zealand:

"CO2 Group’s partner CO2 New Zealand secures new $10 million carbon
sequestration project in New Zealand.

CO2 Group Limited (“CO2 Group” ASX:COZ) is pleased to announce that its partner CO2 New Zealand has secured a new $10 million carbon sequestration project in New Zealand for a significant Maori community (Iwi) on the North Island of New Zealand.
CO2 Group holds a 45 per cent interest in CO2 New Zealand LP which has secured the contract. The project, which will be undertaken in partnership with the Iwi and other local authorities, will bring additional benefits such as carbon based afforestation, erosion control and waterway management.

“This is a significant project for CO2 Group and further strengthens our New Zealand business,” said CO2 Group’s CEO Andrew Grant. “It also diversifies our revenue streams and client base, and it is in line with our strategy of partnering with leading blue chip organisations, municipalities and government bodies....."

This is not the main game for COZ, its main activity is within the Australian carbon credit area, a business that will only become more active once we have certainty of the legislation passing through the Upper House tomorrow, and as we move towards the starting date of 1 July 2012.

Now is the time to consider accumulating cautiously in COZ shares IMO, prior to the first big new contract deal is secured and announced to the market by COZ

 

[beatle]

Re: COZ - CO2 Group

Getting back to the expiry of the COZO options, I note COZ has just put out an announcement: "...CO2 Group Limited (the “Company”) has been advised by the ASX today that the last trading day in the Listed Options was Friday 4 November not Monday 7 November 2011.

This error is regrettable and we apologise to all option holders for any inconvenience.
As previously advised the options expire on a Saturday; as a consequence the Company will accept all applications to convert up to and including Monday 14 November 2011...."

Lol, so my advice by the company secretary earlier last week was correct after all, and now I'm not sure if I should conclude that its more important to believe what you hear or believe what you see, lol!

But as I said a couple of posts earlier, it really won't matter too much about whether it had another day of options trading or not, its now clear that COZ has got the past trading games of the options behind it and with a sound business plan, a clear strategy to build upon its business of providing carbon credits, strong funding position and a huge australian carbon market yet to be tapped, the timing is right for COZ!

This morning's announcement of the NZ deal is something completely out of the blue, but bears testament to COZ's strong position within this new sector for business. The NZ joint venture is a bonus, but we can expect a lot more of those deals being announced within the first few months of next year for its 100% owned Australian business - that will power COZ upwards in the coming months. The first new Australian deal will in my opinion prove my point, so watch it carefully from now on!

 

[beatle]

Re: COZ - CO2 Group

Trading wise COZ was quite good today, up 1.5 cents (ie +10%) on low volume (but relatively the volume was not so low!). The reason for its move up presumably was the positive announcement by the company of the $10 million deal its 45% owned joint venturer has completed in NZ.

With the options COZO ceasing to trade last Friday there is no impediment now for investors in COZ to slowly accumulate shares - in the recent days I felt that share/option holders were trading on the arbitrage between the share and options prices, so now that is not an issue other than realising about 1.5 million options were bought at the equivalent of 13.5 cent - these could come out in the coming week once share options are converted to shares, but who knows what price those converters are to come out, they might be hoarded for a longer term future too!

My view is that COZ will probably trade at its current price for the next couple of weeks, until the announcement of its financial year results, supposedly to be released on 28 Nov;- "...Mr. Grant says CO2 Group is in strong shape with no debt and a growing cash position and it expects to report its full year financial results on 28 November 2011."

I wouldn't mind forecasting that the financial result will be a good one, bearing in mind Carbon Banc has been trading since April with A$11 million in revenue in that past 6 month period - clearly the cost base for that trading is important but I can't see it being anything more than about $5 - 6 million, perhaps that me sticking my finger in the air rather than an educated guess, but there I have made a forecast!

I will continue a commentary on COZ on a regular basis, and would be happy to be accompanied by anyone who would like to put in a post on any matter related to COZ. I hate posting by myself, it means I always win an argument but its not as much fun! I should add that since posting on Saturday there has been around 240 viewers to my posts! Whilst I have checked it a few times in that period, there clearly are observers out there that are currently the silent majority and not me! I will record the viewers to this thread and that might give us all an idea of how many observers might have an interest to COZ. (I think the view count when I started this post was about 2,460).

 

[beatle]

Re: COZ - CO2 Group

This encapsulates the current status of the carbon tax legislation (compliments of Skynews):-

"The Senate votes on the government's carbon tax today.

The upper house continued a fiery debate on amendments to the government's clean energy future legislation last night, but the tax is expected to pass around midday (AEDT) when Labor forces a vote.

With the help of the Greens, the government will have in place, for the first time, a mechanism to price carbon.

It begins with a 23-dollars-per-tonne carbon tax on the 500 biggest polluters from July 1, 2012, ahead of a market-driven emissions trading scheme in 2015...".

Regardless of whether you believe in the science of it (I'm actually a doubter to be perfectly honest!), and whether you believe that it is a sensible tax particularly at this point in time of the economic cycle (again I'm a doubter!), my motto is not to hide my head in the sand. I prefer to learn from my past negative attitude, and in this instance say, well its now inevitable, no point to bash your head up against the wall, what is the most sensible way to make a buck out of it?

So, since COZ will be a major benefactor of the legislation, it is the first mover in the carbon credit market in an Australian business sense, it has set up the myriad of spinoff businesses to fully benefit from the tax and the scientific data to support its case to quantify carbon dioxide emissions, it has got the money and no debt (in fact has got no less than $25 million cash once all the options are exercised in the coming week) to support its business ventures. COZ is the ideal company to invest in. Therefore, my conclusion about how to make a buck from this tax is -Buy COZ shares!!!

 

[iRod]

Re: COZ - CO2 Group

.....

I note COZ has just put out an announcement: "...CO2 Group Limited (the “Company”) has been advised by the ASX today that the last trading day in the Listed Options was Friday 4 November not Monday 7 November 2011.

Anyway...

Regardless of whether you believe in the science of it (I'm actually a doubter to be perfectly honest!), and whether you believe that it is a sensible tax particularly at this point in time of the economic cycle (again I'm a doubter!),.. well its now inevitable, ... what is the most sensible way to make a buck out of it?

Ditto.... I also think Abbott has a difficult chance of reversing the tax...assuming he wins the next election & is even leader.

So I generally agree with your positive assessment of COZ.

However I also note that EU carbon credits are at half the price ie $8.70 and $12.60 a tonne .Government-sticking-to-23-carbon-price I wonder if that will be reconsidered. Do you know under what circumstances that Oz companies can buy foreign credits instead of Oz ones?

Here is a live daily(20min delay) COZ Chart, showing hopefully a bounce off it's low that might be interesting to compare in a few months. Needs to get in top half of BBs ie above the MA line(middle on) to see an upward trend develop.

www.marketwatch:COZ

Regards

 

[beatle]

Re: COZ - CO2 Group

I also note that EU carbon credits are at half the price ie $8.70 and $12.60 a tonne .Government-sticking-to-23-carbon-price I wonder if that will be reconsidered. Do you know under what circumstances that Oz companies can buy foreign credits instead of Oz ones?

Regards

Hi Irod, much appreciate your post and question, which I must admit I don't know the answer to, but I will direct it to the company next time I contact them. I understand that they are busy this week at the Carbon Expo so I will leave them be til next week, so I don't end up on their nuisance list!

Also, I am the first to say that I have no knowledge re interpretation of charts and so your charting comments are much appreciated. Its great to see COZ trading at 17 cents so far today (up 6%, 1 cent) and a Bid at 17.5 cents, even though the volume remains light. Shame though, as I had hoped to accumulate a lot more, seems like people are holding on at this low price for the moment!

I like COZ's statement today:
"...Passing of Clean Energy legislation delivers new growth opportunities for CO2
Group
Clean Energy legislation to create new market opportunities for CO2 Group:
• 500 new potential customers that have a direct liability under the carbon price;
• International funds can now invest in Australia and repatriate credits created to offshore
markets;
• Big fuel consumers can invest in carbon sinks to avoid reduction in fuel excise rebates...".

 

[beatle]

Re: COZ - CO2 Group

After such a momentus day for the passing of legislation of the Carbon Tax and associated bills, COZ moved higher albeit on relatively low volume of 248,000 shares. I believe its just the start for COZ, and its true potential will only become apparent when the next big contract for carbon credits is announced by COZ. Its likely to be the forerunner of a number of following deals by major CO2 emitters, in preparation for the commencement of the scheme on 1 July 2011.

COZ CEO Andrew Grant stated that ..."The Clean Energy legislation is a milestone occasion for the carbon offset industry, with CO2 Group well positioned to take full advantage of the opportunities that the legislation provides. The Clean Energy legislation essentially means that the country’s biggest greenhouse gas emitters will need to consider how they reduce their carbon liability, with CO2 Group a market leader in assisting such companies lower their cost of carbon.”

“Not only does the legislation open up the Company to more than 500 new potential customers looking to acquit their tax liability, but it also allows the business to expand into offshore markets through the repatriation of carbon credits. This is a truly exciting time for CO2 Group, with this legislation providing a framework that delivers us the prospect of rapid growth.”

On a separate matter, the views on the COZ thread here have begun to increase, with it going from 2,465 mid yesterday to 2,613 today. Shame we don't have anyone else posting other than my valued IRod, but hopefully over time it will get traction when the market starts to realise COZ has a good business model and is beginning to take off with increasing revenue.

Note that COZ has an existing customer base that "..include Woodside Petroleum, Newmont Mining, Inpex, Eraring Energy, Origin Energy, ACTEW, Kansai Electric Power, Macquarie Bank and Wannon Water...."

and that "....CO2 Group is the largest provider of dedicated forest carbon sink plantings in Australia with more than 22,000 hectares under management. The company has been operating since 2004."

 

[Wysiwyg]

Re: COZ - CO2 Group

I believe its just the start for COZ, and its true potential will only become apparent when the next big contract for carbon credits is announced by COZ. Its likely to be the forerunner of a number of following deals by major CO2 emitters, in preparation for the commencement of the scheme on 1 July 2011.

I think the legislation for taxing carbon dioxide emitters will begin in July 2012 while any emissions trading will begin in 2015 that is if the Coalition fails to rescind this toxic tax. You know pollies can't be trusted on their word though.

The new regulations will impose a carbon tax on 500 of the country’s biggest polluters starting in July, before becoming a market-based trading program in 2015. The size of the trading program would be second only to the European Union’s.

 

[beatle]

Re: COZ - CO2 Group

I think the legislation for taxing carbon dioxide emitters will begin in July 2012 while any emissions trading will begin in 2015 that is if the Coalition fails to rescind this toxic tax. You know pollies can't be trusted on their word though.

Great to read your post Wysiwyg, and I hope you remain looking at COZ. And what a controversial commentary! So much so that I would like to broaden that debate so that we can get more clarity on the future of the carbon tax. And I would again like to put in my own personal beliefs that probably don't necessarily jell with the science of carbon emissions and the broader impact on the environment. (I would imagine many geologists would probably have some doubts about the scientific arguments being used to authenticate it - and I'm a geologist by qualification).

Now a political statement that I believe goes to the heart of the debate about a carbon tax future.

I suggest that Tony Abbott can't back down on his stated policy of rescinding the tax, if he is elected. It would not meet his political objectives at all to back down. But whether he really would want to rescind another source of funds if he was to ever get into the lodge is problematical. Then will he be the leader anyway? We know another more popular liberal has got a stated preference for a carbon trading scheme - Malcolm Turnbull.

But regardless if Tony Abbott was elected at the next election, then its most unlikely the liberals will have a majority in the senate, this has been the trend in past governments, and the Greens tend now to have the balance of power. So unless Abbott would consider a double dissolution for removal of a tax that by that time would have been comfortably bedded down, with certain tax benefits provided in the current legislation for majority of the voting public its hard to fathom why the Liberals would want to even consider a double dissolution to rescind a piece of tax legislation that provides more funds to the government.

Thus I personally believe we will have the carbon tax from now on. Its a shame though that Tony Abbott's political argument would now hold some uncertainty on a tax that requires certainty for the major capital works decisions ahead by various operators such as power stations, major manufacturing works related to the steel industry etc. Its a shame that the political debate holds priority over the national interests of Australia! (AND I am a Liberal voter usually, but good old Tony has got me offside with his negative approach to our country's future!).

At the end of the day, if there is a need for more government means to tax us, what better way than to tax industry that emits an environmental pollution, even if it doesn't actually cause the climate changes that the so-called experts spout!

That's my political statement.

Now back to COZ...

I like the comment in COZ' latest announcement:

“Not only does the legislation open up the Company to more than 500 new potential customers looking to acquit their tax liability, but it also allows the business to expand into offshore markets through the repatriation of carbon credits. This is a truly exciting time for CO2 Group, with this legislation providing a framework that delivers us the prospect of rapid growth.”

 

[beatle]

Re: COZ - CO2 Group

Whilst I don't want to upset anyone buying COZ at the moment, can I suggest that you don't push the share price too hard. Today there was 2.1 million share options converted to shares, and at the current price there might be some temptation for some of those converting to sell if the price is too strong. This could become an issue for the next couple of weeks or so as the entire outstanding options expiring on 14 Nov 2011 that are converted into shares are quoted on the ASX.

Don't get me wrong, I believe that COZ is an excellent investment now, due to it being in the right business at this critical time when the Carbon Tax is legislated, and especially after my anticipation of a good financial year result announced towards the end of Nov. But the fact that there will be some more shares floating around after options converting means that if people are too aggressive pushing up the share price then it could cause a flood of shares being sold.

I am one who has recently converted options, but I certainly have no intention of selling for a quick gain, I am in COZ for a far longer period and expect the share price to move up much higher over time once the new contracts are completed between large emitters and COZ. And furthermore, I am still accumulating shares, so will buy more on any weakness. I believe there is still some time to accumulate, but it depends upon how the financial results go as to whether the share price goes through a re-rating or not. The Carbon Banc activity might contribute a reasonable amount to the bottom line, noting that Sept alone accounted for $4.6 million revenue.

 

[beatle]

Re: COZ - CO2 Group

In line with the general market COZ has come off a touch, almost into my targeted accumulate zone!

I note also that in the past day and a half the number of views on ASF for COZ has increased from 2,613 to now being 2,723 ie just over 100 times this thread has been accessed. I see that as a positive despite there being very few posters other than myself. If you have a view on COZ, either positive or negative I would be so happy to know I'm not having a chat just with myself, even though this way I get complete agreement - I'm so lonely in here at the moment, lol!

 

[beatle]

Re: COZ - CO2 Group

COZ trading remains quite low volume, and it has managed to keep a reasonable share price. The chancd to accumulate at this rate is harder than pulling a hen's teeth!

I note that viewers to this thread moved up from 2,723 to 2,770 over the past day. I guess thats ok with the way the market has suffered the past day, but it would certainly increase if there was another poster on here (I'm lonely ...).

 

[beatle]

Re: COZ - CO2 Group

Since the passing of the legislation on the carbon tax last week seems the general consensus of opinion is that within the next months and moving towards July 1 next year there will be less opposition to the legislation, and thus less likely to be any threat to rescinding the carbon tax as its drawn up. This is a significant and favourable for COZ and the likelihood of it making some good announcements re deals done with some of those top 500 emitters. Bring on those announcements (ASAP!).

From 2,770 views to 2,839 over the weekend, ie 69 times this thread was viewed over the weekend. Thats significant IMO, but it would be far better if there was another regular poster. COZ is operating in a space which is prone to controversy so it would be great to hear other people's views regarding the sector and/or COZ.

 

[beatle]

Re: COZ - CO2 Group

Very positive to see the directors convert lots of Nov 2011 options, not only adding to COZ cash coffers, but also confirming their joint vote of confidence by supporting the company to the tune of about another $15 million! AND further, its good to see that the top 20 shareholders have a tight 72 odd % of the share capital in COZ!!!

Now to see the first and many ASX releases to follow, confirming contracts being set in place with COZ and lots of the top 500 carbon dioxide emitters....

 

[beatle]

Re: COZ - CO2 Group

COZ' announcement yesterday was a small step in terms of its financial bottom line, but in terms of implications for COZ credibility it reinforces how significant the company is with regards to its "whole of carbon dioxide business expertise". And I would imagine that its likely that COZ will get more direct spin-off business with more significant impact on financial benefits for the company in regard to the Tasmanian carbon scene once the company's consultancy work takes hold.

The first part of the announcement follows:

"CO2 Group secures Forest Carbon Study contract with Tasmanian Government CO2 Australia Limited (a subsidiary of CO2 Group Limited, ASX:COZ), has been appointed by the Tasmanian Government, to undertake a Forest Carbon Study aimed at estimating the volume of carbon currently stored in Tasmania’s forest estates.

The study is seen as a critical project for Tasmania, particularly given the recent passage of the Commonwealth Government’s national carbon pricing legislation. It is also evidence of CO2 Group’s continued diversification of revenue streams, the strength of its advisory services team and the significant carbon project expertise that it has developed. The Company’s CEO, Andrew Grant, said “As part of our corporate strategy, we continue to broaden the range of services our company offers. We are very pleased to have the opportunity to be involved in this project, which leverages off our strengths in the carbon advisory area. We have some unique experience in forest carbon accounting and assessing the commercial potential for forest carbon projects, all of which align very well with the objectives of this study.”

CO2 Group is well placed to deliver the project, with over seven years’ experience operating within domestic and international carbon markets. CO2 Group is the country’s largest developer of reforestation-based carbon projects, having developed over 22,000 hectares of dedicated carbon plantings in Australia. Carbon markets, including the recently passed carbon pricing legislation, may offer significant economic opportunities for Tasmania.

The government’s Forest Carbon Study will provide an independent, expert assessment of the volume of carbon currently stored in Tasmania’s forest estate, and our most significant opportunities to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and increase carbon sequestration in our forest sector.

Importantly, the study will also look at opportunities for Tasmania to monetise emission reductions in the forest sector."