SFG - Seafarms Group
- Thread starter Love Zn
- Start date
Re: COZ - CO2 Group
Found this regarding CCF sheds some light into the opposition's business model.
The analyst reports are interesting
http://carbonconscious.com.au/site/files/57583/(2009-11 Alto) CCF.pdf
and
http://www.carbonconscious.com.au/files/19/files/Alto CCF research report.pdf
They changed the figures for the value of carbon credits without changing the value they create. Previously 20-30 now 20-25 but still 200-450 per year.
Per hectare basis
$800 gross profit per hectare planted in the first year (design and plantation fees, excludes
land cost)
$15 gross profit per hectare per year for 15 years (management fee, includes land cost)
So they aren't expensing land acquistion costs on purchase but amortising it over the useful life. Not sure what percentage they amortise a year.
Business models seems to be geared towards an upfront fee with a small ongoing profit until year 15 which is highly sensitive to increases in the price of agricultural land. THis previously went up when plantation land was picked up for MIS projects and I imagine this would be the case for CCF although would take longer as they are using marginal farm land.
So kicker comes from carbon credits generated year 15+ as these would accrue to CCF.
Given gross profit per hectare is supposed to be around $800 (excluding land costs) vs average land purchase costs of $875, cashflow would be marginal (there is 2m of management expenses not yet accounted for increasing with the size of plantings), it may be positive as some land purchase costs would be included in the continuing op-ex.
Found this regarding CCF sheds some light into the opposition's business model.
The analyst reports are interesting
http://carbonconscious.com.au/site/files/57583/(2009-11 Alto) CCF.pdf
and
http://www.carbonconscious.com.au/files/19/files/Alto CCF research report.pdf
They changed the figures for the value of carbon credits without changing the value they create. Previously 20-30 now 20-25 but still 200-450 per year.
Per hectare basis
$800 gross profit per hectare planted in the first year (design and plantation fees, excludes
land cost)
$15 gross profit per hectare per year for 15 years (management fee, includes land cost)
So they aren't expensing land acquistion costs on purchase but amortising it over the useful life. Not sure what percentage they amortise a year.
Business models seems to be geared towards an upfront fee with a small ongoing profit until year 15 which is highly sensitive to increases in the price of agricultural land. THis previously went up when plantation land was picked up for MIS projects and I imagine this would be the case for CCF although would take longer as they are using marginal farm land.
So kicker comes from carbon credits generated year 15+ as these would accrue to CCF.
Given gross profit per hectare is supposed to be around $800 (excluding land costs) vs average land purchase costs of $875, cashflow would be marginal (there is 2m of management expenses not yet accounted for increasing with the size of plantings), it may be positive as some land purchase costs would be included in the continuing op-ex.
Re: COZ - CO2 Group
You make some interesting observations Suhm re CCF, and i understand that COZ originally proposed to develop a similar business model to CCF in its early days but changed that model to remove the high upfront costs associated with purchasing land for the carbon credits. Thus COZ business model and cash flow modeling doesn't follow the same basis.
COZ has had a rough old time the past week or so, with some sellers desperately trying to get out at any price (and one big seller sitting on the offer at 17 cents). I can see a time soon enough when COZ at even 17 cents will be considered a bargain! (Not sure when though, lol!).
You make some interesting observations Suhm re CCF, and i understand that COZ originally proposed to develop a similar business model to CCF in its early days but changed that model to remove the high upfront costs associated with purchasing land for the carbon credits. Thus COZ business model and cash flow modeling doesn't follow the same basis.
COZ has had a rough old time the past week or so, with some sellers desperately trying to get out at any price (and one big seller sitting on the offer at 17 cents). I can see a time soon enough when COZ at even 17 cents will be considered a bargain! (Not sure when though, lol!).
Re: COZ - CO2 Group
Since my last commentary COZ has continued its range trading, and enabled me to build up a fairly reasonable position at what I consider to be a good price. I'm just about set and ready to wait for those announcements of new deals that I anticipate coming in the next months - and with the AGM about on us its possible we might be pleasantly surprised as it seems the share price tends to move up on little news each annual meeting.
I note that the volumes in COZ, which tend to be very low most of the time (lots of zero days!) has been slightly more active the past few days, and today seemed as though it was out to break a record. I note that 700,000 lot seller remains and probably is keeping a tight hold in the trading range, maybe some positive news will take that seller out and unleash the fury I'm anticipating in coming months!
I'm set now, so COZ its about time you perform . . .
Since my last commentary COZ has continued its range trading, and enabled me to build up a fairly reasonable position at what I consider to be a good price. I'm just about set and ready to wait for those announcements of new deals that I anticipate coming in the next months - and with the AGM about on us its possible we might be pleasantly surprised as it seems the share price tends to move up on little news each annual meeting.
I note that the volumes in COZ, which tend to be very low most of the time (lots of zero days!) has been slightly more active the past few days, and today seemed as though it was out to break a record. I note that 700,000 lot seller remains and probably is keeping a tight hold in the trading range, maybe some positive news will take that seller out and unleash the fury I'm anticipating in coming months!
I'm set now, so COZ its about time you perform . . .
Re: COZ - CO2 Group
Another (relatively speaking) high volume trading day for COZ, accompanied by improved share price. I'm still expecting some more action, both increasing volume and price up, as we approach the AGM which is late next week.
If someone who is interested in COZ is due to attend the AGM could you please consider summarising the discussions of the meeting in a post on here. I can't make the trip to Melbourne due to other commitments otherwise I would be there as well.
Another (relatively speaking) high volume trading day for COZ, accompanied by improved share price. I'm still expecting some more action, both increasing volume and price up, as we approach the AGM which is late next week.
If someone who is interested in COZ is due to attend the AGM could you please consider summarising the discussions of the meeting in a post on here. I can't make the trip to Melbourne due to other commitments otherwise I would be there as well.
Re: COZ - CO2 Group
Anyone planning to attend the AGM for COZ who cares to post a summary of the discussion would be most appreciated. Its on in Melb late this week. Of course any significant news by the company would have to come out in an ASX release but sometimes the discussion opens up interesting facts.
I note that the volume of shares traded in COZ has slowly increased and price is up slightly too, but still within its current range of trading over the past few months.
Anyone planning to attend the AGM for COZ who cares to post a summary of the discussion would be most appreciated. Its on in Melb late this week. Of course any significant news by the company would have to come out in an ASX release but sometimes the discussion opens up interesting facts.
I note that the volume of shares traded in COZ has slowly increased and price is up slightly too, but still within its current range of trading over the past few months.
Re: COZ - CO2 Group
Although its on reasonable (relatively speaking) but still low volume COZ has finally broken out of its trading range, and maybe the last few days of trading increasing volumes has been a subtle hint to something going on.
But as I have noted previously seems to me each AGM the share price movement up precedes the meeting date! (That's the cynical side of me coming out of course).
ON THE OTHER HAND it could also be that COZ is getting near to closing on one of its deals with the likes of the 500 largest CO2 emitters. Time will tell, but if you are not on yet there's time to get set but I suggest time is running out . . . .
Although its on reasonable (relatively speaking) but still low volume COZ has finally broken out of its trading range, and maybe the last few days of trading increasing volumes has been a subtle hint to something going on.
But as I have noted previously seems to me each AGM the share price movement up precedes the meeting date! (That's the cynical side of me coming out of course).
ON THE OTHER HAND it could also be that COZ is getting near to closing on one of its deals with the likes of the 500 largest CO2 emitters. Time will tell, but if you are not on yet there's time to get set but I suggest time is running out . . . .
Re: COZ - CO2 Group
A fantastic days trading for COZ, up 18.2% (3 cents), on reasonable volume and still 4 days to go before the AGM!
COZ has had a long time trading within a fairly tight range between 14 and 17 odd cents, many months, with rare occasions below that price range, and I'm confident that this move today is not the last of it, perhaps the forerunner of a much broader run as we move closer to July1 2012 - D day for Australia's 500 largest CO2 emitters!
A fantastic days trading for COZ, up 18.2% (3 cents), on reasonable volume and still 4 days to go before the AGM!
COZ has had a long time trading within a fairly tight range between 14 and 17 odd cents, many months, with rare occasions below that price range, and I'm confident that this move today is not the last of it, perhaps the forerunner of a much broader run as we move closer to July1 2012 - D day for Australia's 500 largest CO2 emitters!
Re: COZ - CO2 Group
COZ down a cent (-5.3%) on lower volume today, but for me the biggy is that Bid volumes have steadily increased! This is the best sign that there is increased interest in COZ after a long drought!
Assumedly we will get an announcement from COZ prior to Friday's AGM and that might provide some insight into current state of play with all those CO2 hungry emitters!
COZ down a cent (-5.3%) on lower volume today, but for me the biggy is that Bid volumes have steadily increased! This is the best sign that there is increased interest in COZ after a long drought!
Assumedly we will get an announcement from COZ prior to Friday's AGM and that might provide some insight into current state of play with all those CO2 hungry emitters!
Re: COZ - CO2 Group
For those that would like to know more about CO2 group and its activities in the carbon space I suggest you listen to the following presentation by the company's MD at the recent AGM, its quite enlightening and does give one the feeling that CO2 is a broad-based company that is likely to slowly but surely build its business, both in Australia and New Zealand.
http://www.brrmedia.com/event/94463
I'm still waiting for that next big deal that could force CO2's share price way beyond its recent trading range, that is likely to happen in the coming months as we move towards D-Day of 1 July 2012 when the largest 500 carbon dioxide emitters will be required to pay its carbon tax based on tonnes of carbon emitted, initially at $23/tonne of CO2 emitted.
For those that would like to know more about CO2 group and its activities in the carbon space I suggest you listen to the following presentation by the company's MD at the recent AGM, its quite enlightening and does give one the feeling that CO2 is a broad-based company that is likely to slowly but surely build its business, both in Australia and New Zealand.
http://www.brrmedia.com/event/94463
I'm still waiting for that next big deal that could force CO2's share price way beyond its recent trading range, that is likely to happen in the coming months as we move towards D-Day of 1 July 2012 when the largest 500 carbon dioxide emitters will be required to pay its carbon tax based on tonnes of carbon emitted, initially at $23/tonne of CO2 emitted.
Re: COZ - CO2 Group
Out of the blue a great end to the day for COZ, up 9% on just over 0.5 million shares to 18 cents. There doesn't seem to much on-screen support but maybe this trading late today is an indication of some moves towards a new CO2 deal being made. (Where there is smoke there is fire, most of the time!).
Out of the blue a great end to the day for COZ, up 9% on just over 0.5 million shares to 18 cents. There doesn't seem to much on-screen support but maybe this trading late today is an indication of some moves towards a new CO2 deal being made. (Where there is smoke there is fire, most of the time!).
Re: COZ - CO2 Group
COZ rocketed up another 5% (1 cent) to 19.0 cents today! Shame it was on 6,631 shares!
But overall its moved from 16.0 --> 19.0 cents in recent days and seems it could be an indication of something happening in the quiet depths - all we need to stir this share price up is another deal for its carbon sequestration with a big CO2 emitter, mind you Clive Palmer is now trying to stir the water too!
COZ rocketed up another 5% (1 cent) to 19.0 cents today! Shame it was on 6,631 shares!
But overall its moved from 16.0 --> 19.0 cents in recent days and seems it could be an indication of something happening in the quiet depths - all we need to stir this share price up is another deal for its carbon sequestration with a big CO2 emitter, mind you Clive Palmer is now trying to stir the water too!
Re: COZ - CO2 Group
COZ has now got a variation to the theme "Two steps forward and one step back", its "one cent forward and 2 cents backwards", lol!
For the time being I remain confident and with patience, of course the talk about rescinding this tax, which is most unlikely, is probably keeping companies from taking the plunge to invest in such carbon storage products to offset their carbon dioxide emission tax liabilities, even though the day of reality is looming ever closer!
COZ has now got a variation to the theme "Two steps forward and one step back", its "one cent forward and 2 cents backwards", lol!
For the time being I remain confident and with patience, of course the talk about rescinding this tax, which is most unlikely, is probably keeping companies from taking the plunge to invest in such carbon storage products to offset their carbon dioxide emission tax liabilities, even though the day of reality is looming ever closer!
- Joined
- 27 June 2010
- Posts
- 4,147
- Reactions
- 309
Re: COZ - Commodities Group
On March 18th, 2014, CO2 Group Limited changed its name to Commodities Group Limited.
On March 18th, 2014, CO2 Group Limited changed its name to Commodities Group Limited.
- Joined
- 27 June 2010
- Posts
- 4,147
- Reactions
- 309
On March 24th, 2015, Commodities Group Limited (COZ) changed its name and ASX code to Seafarms Group Limited (SFG).
Hey System
Doesn't look like SFG has done else since your post. I might say though that they have become a retirement home for poorly functioning ex-trade ministers at an undisclosed salary. The distinction here that the production will be renewable and sustainable... As opposed to ex-minstrel appointments the the Mineral Council
The isolation of SFG chosen location for the billion dollar plus expansion doesn't make for easy first hand appraisel. Anyone being lost in the bush up there and stumbling across what's going on feel free to spead the word.
I have tried to look into this company after a recommendation, but have found it extremely difficult to find any good way to value it. In theory, if they get a tonne of funding, it'll be a huge project... Couldn't get much further than that. Will they get funding? On what terms? Will a scale-up of that size essentially dilute me to zero?
Hey Herzy... I watch these guy's from the side in that I have money in Ridley corp who control the franchise on the prawn food SFG will be using(if they've got any brains).
I went over them in some detail 12months to two years ago.
A new set of eyes now would be appreciated.
See how you go working backward from 'Crystal Bay Prawns'
Back when I was looking, the development suggested a three stages of production scale up 1st stage $140 million.
About six months ago or so there were some trial ponds on the WA coast somewhere, thats from memory don't quote me...
Andrew Robb as an 'employee', sounds like a passanger to me.
I went over them in some detail 12months to two years ago.
A new set of eyes now would be appreciated.
See how you go working backward from 'Crystal Bay Prawns'
Back when I was looking, the development suggested a three stages of production scale up 1st stage $140 million.
About six months ago or so there were some trial ponds on the WA coast somewhere, thats from memory don't quote me...
Andrew Robb as an 'employee', sounds like a passanger to me.
So_Cynical
The Contrarian Averager
- Joined
- 31 August 2007
- Posts
- 7,464
- Reactions
- 1,463
Its a massive project requiring massive amounts of money, its a case of can they get it all together...chances are well less than 50/50.
After a very long break I'm now watching Seafarms again more closely (didn't stop looking altogether but got bored to follow too closely!). Seems the company has got to a major decision point, today Wed 30 August 2017 - there is an authorized meeting of Elders who hold native title rights over Legune Station on the Northern Territory border. This site has been proposed for SFG's major prawn project - a land based aquaculture project of 10,000 Ha, with ultimately annual production of around 150,000 tonnes of black tiger prawn, primarily destined for international export. Its a mammoth project if it gets the go ahead - bundles of money required to build it (US$1.5 billion) and large annual revenue estimated at US$2.3 billion. The numbers are astronomical.
BUT will it get the ILUA grant from the Elders - the outcome of the meeting today holds the answer to that today.
If it gets the ILUA then will it get the funding - that's the next hurdle.
If it gets the ILUA, and the funding, then this 6.5 cents share should start to move higher, and transition to a far higher market cap (around $91 million now) and share price. Its an important time for the company, and watching it from here could be a rewarding experience.
Oh, just to add, SFG already produces around 1,700 tonnes of prawns annually from 2 prawn farms in northern Queensland, so it does have a good understanding of what can make this new project highly profitable.
