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Agree....... Enter not exit!Fab said:
SEN - Senetas Corporation
- Thread starter Lachlan6
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Wow what a day. Each and everyone of my watchlist was in the red today in a big way. How much of this was the market? How much of this was the Fear with whats happening to SFNT? I wonder if the announcement had come before open if the sell off would have been as big because the buyers certainly came marching back just after the ann.? How Much of this was Lemming behaviour? Who Knows?
I sold My parcel I baught recently at 40c just to take some back off the tax man and I baught straight back in.
So far my Senetas experience is not the best but I spoke to my sources again today, they did not foresee this panic today but see it as a bonus and are still suggesting accumulate, big news coming soon I am being told which is very much to do with what was talked about in the ann. today. Heres hoping.
HC went off today with abuse back and forward it was amusing but not informative in anyway. Must be some seriously burnt people out there.
I sold My parcel I baught recently at 40c just to take some back off the tax man and I baught straight back in.
So far my Senetas experience is not the best but I spoke to my sources again today, they did not foresee this panic today but see it as a bonus and are still suggesting accumulate, big news coming soon I am being told which is very much to do with what was talked about in the ann. today. Heres hoping.
HC went off today with abuse back and forward it was amusing but not informative in anyway. Must be some seriously burnt people out there.
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Lol Is that Betty Boo?.
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Interesting perspective posted on SS
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from My earlier posts
"But price and trend are strong anchors many will not buy ( esp the traders ) till it starts going up again... So where IT does start to go up again will indicate the technical strength
And it will be the investors who maybe start buying first and absorb all the eager sellers.
And there are sellers and they are having to reach to find buyers ATM.. "
Buyers turned up today.. absorbed all offerings and wanted more
"watch for a volume surge.. "
And it came ( because the buyers turned up )today's action was equal to many recent days action .. intrinsic time ( market time ) sped up significantly....Today was a selling Climax... with demand being seen to overcome supply +
significant transfer of ownership..
"Look left and notice it is back were the last action sprung from look further left and there is the large horizontal Zone around .32"
good context with the volume here significant..
"But you still want to buy at favourable prices...If the stock is in a red column ..and trending down it is not a time to buy.... " "I would wait for some buy signals "
OK with time speeding up We have to go with the flow.. and not be caught in a clock based rhythm
dropping down to a hand drawn 1 box reversal intraday tic chart ( point and figure )
very clear fulcrum base formed... with the catapult point at .32
Very clear buy signals.. No need to wait anymore.. Indications are that here is bang for buck.. high probabilty ..lower risk..
So took position at .32 today...intraday fulcrum gives upside target to .44 cents
( fulcrum and target negated and fail with a close below .295 )
Nothing certain ...But good close was good confirmation..
See tomorrow...hopefully We get multiple buy signals.. and a profitable campaign..
hopefully charts will confirm in the coming days.. No point posting one atm
I hold SEN
motorway
"But price and trend are strong anchors many will not buy ( esp the traders ) till it starts going up again... So where IT does start to go up again will indicate the technical strength
And it will be the investors who maybe start buying first and absorb all the eager sellers.
And there are sellers and they are having to reach to find buyers ATM.. "
Buyers turned up today.. absorbed all offerings and wanted more
"watch for a volume surge.. "
And it came ( because the buyers turned up )today's action was equal to many recent days action .. intrinsic time ( market time ) sped up significantly....Today was a selling Climax... with demand being seen to overcome supply +
significant transfer of ownership..
"Look left and notice it is back were the last action sprung from look further left and there is the large horizontal Zone around .32"
good context with the volume here significant..
"But you still want to buy at favourable prices...If the stock is in a red column ..and trending down it is not a time to buy.... " "I would wait for some buy signals "
OK with time speeding up We have to go with the flow.. and not be caught in a clock based rhythm
dropping down to a hand drawn 1 box reversal intraday tic chart ( point and figure )
very clear fulcrum base formed... with the catapult point at .32
Very clear buy signals.. No need to wait anymore.. Indications are that here is bang for buck.. high probabilty ..lower risk..
So took position at .32 today...intraday fulcrum gives upside target to .44 cents
( fulcrum and target negated and fail with a close below .295 )
Nothing certain ...But good close was good confirmation..
See tomorrow...hopefully We get multiple buy signals.. and a profitable campaign..
hopefully charts will confirm in the coming days.. No point posting one atm
I hold SEN
motorway
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Equity
Another follow up from y'day's post on SS
let's have a look here....
first
"The low pole reversal pattern begins with a long column of Os down, which is considered the low pole. A low pole is defined as a column of Os that drops more than three boxes below the previous column of Os. In the chart below, you will see that the last column of Os falls below the previous column of Os by seven boxes. The Os represent supply and eventually the selling will subside and demand will resurface causing the chart to reverse up in to a column of Xs. If the initial amount of demand in this reversal is substantial, often times it indicates a low is in place for the stock. The initial demand is considered substantial if the column of Xs that follows the low pole retraces the low pole by more than 50%. To determine the 50% level one would add up the number of Os in the low pole column. In the chart below there are twelve Os in the low pole. Therefore, the next column of Xs needs to retrace it by more than 50%, or by at least six Xs. That happened at .34 (intraday). "
Ok in a down trend reversal against the trend should be insignificant as long as the bearish
consensus is in train....And look at the chart there is not one double top buy signal in the chart since the breakdown from the top..( that is a column of X's has not been able to make a new high against a previous column of X,s ) There are all double bottom sell signals.
However there have been two previous pole reversal signals
the first... early in the trend...( P&F orthodoxy says ignore early signals against the trend wait for confirmation ).. The second was still above support and failed also...
The failure point is a 3 box reversal occurring before a double top buy.. ( a double top buy would be at .375 )
Ok unambiguous and clear signals for confirmation or failure..
This time ?....A point and figure chart... is a chart of activity.. it is imo price and volume woven together...And confirmation builds with each posting..
But We can step back and look at price and Volume on there own as well if it helps us see things in a particular moment..On an bar chart..look at yesterdays volume... look at the price bar and look at the close........ The pole signal , given the participation ( volume and activity ) gains credence... If I poll 2 people
on an issue...the significance is much less than if I poll 20 million.....
A selling climax is where trend changes ( even if it is not confirmed till later )
it is where weak hands who bought at higher prices finally sell out to stronger hands
weak hands are holders under water with high cost base.. ( how long can they hold their breath ? ) who wish they had not bought ( So not the real long term investors )
Strong hands finally acquire those shares maybe at .295...Their cost base puts them in a totally different psychological outlook... they are looking ahead to future profits not looking back with regret...
If you look left on the chart.. SEN is also back to long term support...either it is a bull**** stock .. or it is very very over sold one...
over sold is Not any indicator.. it is where the price causes a surge in Volume to occur.. because the buyers can not hold back.. Without the volume surge it is only a possible oversold situation...
The large volume is reflected in the reversal off the bottom with the formation of the pole .
And with subsequent postings the real story will emerge..
I have bought one position... until the stock ''By it's own action " confirms. I will not add another ..
We should soon see.....
The chart below is a high low chart...it does not display the intraday reversal..This chart will eventually display that if it is confirmed.. hence why it is said H/L charts are 80% accurate with the 20% being corrected in the next day ( or two )...
With such speeding up of time ( look at the activity.. the number of trades the volume )
yesterday might well be equal to 20 previous days... So when looking for the base.. it is in the pole ( hence why poles are significant ) and is only displayed in detail on an intraday chart and why I used it... ( the tick chart has a base of ~ 20 columns )
I feel here We have a logical unambiguous entry point.. the chart as they say is "urging Us to buy " ... But step by step and let the urging build from a whisper to a roar...
The pole was formed when the intraday reversal closed yesterday at .34
The intraday one box tic chart gave the signal at .32
If on the way back to the high there are as many buy signals as there were sell signals on the way down... We will need a lot of money to take them all and the results will be as they say "more than satisfactory"
Atm looks ok a bit of backing and filling is fine...
Nothing certain...Just My views
If it falls below .295 there will be other things to buy
and Sen maybe next time
On this chart next buy signal at .375
( though it is wise to look at the 1 box chart as well for other signals )
motorway
Attached Image (Click thumbnail to expand)
Another follow up from y'day's post on SS
let's have a look here....
first
"The low pole reversal pattern begins with a long column of Os down, which is considered the low pole. A low pole is defined as a column of Os that drops more than three boxes below the previous column of Os. In the chart below, you will see that the last column of Os falls below the previous column of Os by seven boxes. The Os represent supply and eventually the selling will subside and demand will resurface causing the chart to reverse up in to a column of Xs. If the initial amount of demand in this reversal is substantial, often times it indicates a low is in place for the stock. The initial demand is considered substantial if the column of Xs that follows the low pole retraces the low pole by more than 50%. To determine the 50% level one would add up the number of Os in the low pole column. In the chart below there are twelve Os in the low pole. Therefore, the next column of Xs needs to retrace it by more than 50%, or by at least six Xs. That happened at .34 (intraday). "
Ok in a down trend reversal against the trend should be insignificant as long as the bearish
consensus is in train....And look at the chart there is not one double top buy signal in the chart since the breakdown from the top..( that is a column of X's has not been able to make a new high against a previous column of X,s ) There are all double bottom sell signals.
However there have been two previous pole reversal signals
the first... early in the trend...( P&F orthodoxy says ignore early signals against the trend wait for confirmation ).. The second was still above support and failed also...
The failure point is a 3 box reversal occurring before a double top buy.. ( a double top buy would be at .375 )
Ok unambiguous and clear signals for confirmation or failure..
This time ?....A point and figure chart... is a chart of activity.. it is imo price and volume woven together...And confirmation builds with each posting..
But We can step back and look at price and Volume on there own as well if it helps us see things in a particular moment..On an bar chart..look at yesterdays volume... look at the price bar and look at the close........ The pole signal , given the participation ( volume and activity ) gains credence... If I poll 2 people
on an issue...the significance is much less than if I poll 20 million.....
A selling climax is where trend changes ( even if it is not confirmed till later )
it is where weak hands who bought at higher prices finally sell out to stronger hands
weak hands are holders under water with high cost base.. ( how long can they hold their breath ? ) who wish they had not bought ( So not the real long term investors )
Strong hands finally acquire those shares maybe at .295...Their cost base puts them in a totally different psychological outlook... they are looking ahead to future profits not looking back with regret...
If you look left on the chart.. SEN is also back to long term support...either it is a bull**** stock .. or it is very very over sold one...
over sold is Not any indicator.. it is where the price causes a surge in Volume to occur.. because the buyers can not hold back.. Without the volume surge it is only a possible oversold situation...
The large volume is reflected in the reversal off the bottom with the formation of the pole .
And with subsequent postings the real story will emerge..
I have bought one position... until the stock ''By it's own action " confirms. I will not add another ..
We should soon see.....
The chart below is a high low chart...it does not display the intraday reversal..This chart will eventually display that if it is confirmed.. hence why it is said H/L charts are 80% accurate with the 20% being corrected in the next day ( or two )...
With such speeding up of time ( look at the activity.. the number of trades the volume )
yesterday might well be equal to 20 previous days... So when looking for the base.. it is in the pole ( hence why poles are significant ) and is only displayed in detail on an intraday chart and why I used it... ( the tick chart has a base of ~ 20 columns )
I feel here We have a logical unambiguous entry point.. the chart as they say is "urging Us to buy " ... But step by step and let the urging build from a whisper to a roar...
The pole was formed when the intraday reversal closed yesterday at .34
The intraday one box tic chart gave the signal at .32
If on the way back to the high there are as many buy signals as there were sell signals on the way down... We will need a lot of money to take them all and the results will be as they say "more than satisfactory"
Atm looks ok a bit of backing and filling is fine...
Nothing certain...Just My views
If it falls below .295 there will be other things to buy
and Sen maybe next time
On this chart next buy signal at .375
( though it is wise to look at the 1 box chart as well for other signals )
motorway
Attached Image (Click thumbnail to expand)
Julia
In Memoriam
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stiger said:I doubled up on my investment cos it makes good sense at this moment in time.The only way out is up.
Why do you think the only way out is up?
Julia
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My last post I meant for you 123enen I wrote equity as I was reading his post on H/C lol
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Yes, Equity sure is a character on H/C isn't he!
This motorway guy seems to know his technicals doesnt he.
If we are smart we can combine his tech knowledge with the fundamentals as we know them and with the expectations of the upcoming SEN announcements and have a fair bit of confidence now.
But the longer SEN leave it the harder it will become. There will continue to be downward pressure on the price until the market sees a good solid announcement. Until this announcement, the weak hands, as Motorway puts it will continue to be underwater and will eventually sell.
The weak hands of two months ago probably sold out to the buyers then who may have become the next generation of weak hands now , ready to sell.
You can see how quickly people are willing to sell from the fact that the price dropped to 29.5 cents in one morning on panic of bad safenet news.
We could probably get that low again if we go for a month with no news -and then more weak hands wil sell.
This motorway guy seems to know his technicals doesnt he.
If we are smart we can combine his tech knowledge with the fundamentals as we know them and with the expectations of the upcoming SEN announcements and have a fair bit of confidence now.
But the longer SEN leave it the harder it will become. There will continue to be downward pressure on the price until the market sees a good solid announcement. Until this announcement, the weak hands, as Motorway puts it will continue to be underwater and will eventually sell.
The weak hands of two months ago probably sold out to the buyers then who may have become the next generation of weak hands now , ready to sell.
You can see how quickly people are willing to sell from the fact that the price dropped to 29.5 cents in one morning on panic of bad safenet news.
We could probably get that low again if we go for a month with no news -and then more weak hands wil sell.
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Good tech analysis gekko......from what i see and have predicted the best entry so far has now appeared for sen......safenet...well.....that put the spanner in the works a little on the weekend...and those who were privy to its actual affects would have accumulated as for the rest of the market they were living in a blind spot.
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Good positive start to the day. That definate buy signal at .375 is close.
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I agree although the buying never seems to last long after any announcements by sen that are there just to reassure their shareholders.
This latest one is similar but has a bit more to it and creates anticipation and expectation with whats coming and we are too close to end of FY for them to get the forecast wrong or they would be in deep ****.
Sentiment is no doubt coming back and the charts finally providing a positive signal.
Lets hope there is some market surprise well over the 11m and then the word will be out..I do believe there was recent meetings with those that we need to take notice..now why would they try unless they could sell the future of sen, particularly at a time they are telling us they are in advanced stages of talks with two telcos and a cypherblade deal.
We do need a damn good announcement. A $$$ one...a big order...a huge sale....I can smell one coming...
Have we got another trading year ahead similar to the last?? and just a matter of picking which 1/2 any lumpiness may effect and getting out before the panic sets in again lol??
This latest one is similar but has a bit more to it and creates anticipation and expectation with whats coming and we are too close to end of FY for them to get the forecast wrong or they would be in deep ****.
Sentiment is no doubt coming back and the charts finally providing a positive signal.
Lets hope there is some market surprise well over the 11m and then the word will be out..I do believe there was recent meetings with those that we need to take notice..now why would they try unless they could sell the future of sen, particularly at a time they are telling us they are in advanced stages of talks with two telcos and a cypherblade deal.
We do need a damn good announcement. A $$$ one...a big order...a huge sale....I can smell one coming...
Have we got another trading year ahead similar to the last?? and just a matter of picking which 1/2 any lumpiness may effect and getting out before the panic sets in again lol??
Senetas (SEN) 34c
CRITERION
Tim Boreham
May 24, 2006
NEW Senetas chief John DuBois is baffled about the dearth of market confidence in the purveyor of high-speed encryption devices. "I don't think the market understands us, to be honest," he laments.
But as DuBois knows, the market is all-knowing and never, ever wrong - especially day-traders, who account for about one third of the Senetas register and often punt big volumes on any given day.
Investors have sent Senetas shares 27 per cent lower since April 28, despite the company affirming its profit expectation on that date.
Earlier in April, chairman Francis Galbally offloaded 2 million of his Senetas shares at 60c, which didn't exactly go unnoticed.
In the latest setback, Senetas has been tainted by some bad odours emanating from its US distributor, SafeNet. Regulators are probing SafeNet over options granted to executives, as well as "accounting irregularities".
SafeNet has been a vital conduit for Senetas to win sensitive military and government contracts, but failed to deliver targeted sales in the first half.
DuBois says Senetas no longer relies on SafeNet, as it increasingly wins sales through direct channels. Senetas will continue to work with SafeNet, but is having talks with other US-based entities.
According to one Senetas watcher, chopping and changing US distribution isn't as easy, given the sensitive nature of the contracts. He also questions whether the Senetas product suite is as unique as the company claims it is.
To be fair, Senetas has been winning a number of contracts elsewhere and expects to sign a distribution deal with two telcos.
SafeNet expects an $11 million pre-tax profit in the year to June 30. Given that it posted only $917,000 in the first half, it needs a monster second half.
Galbally says management realised last November that SafeNet wasn't going to be the revenue generator it had assumed. Senetas argued that the loss of contracts was a timing issue only, and that the cash would flow in the second (current) half.
Senetas was Criterion's glamour stock last year, hitting a peak of 91c in early December.
DuBois says the "real value" of Senetas stock is around 55c, but Criterion remains cautious.
We last rated Senetas as a HOLD at 63.5c in early March, and will continue to do so, at least until DuBois holds a strategy briefing within the next three weeks.
CRITERION
Tim Boreham
May 24, 2006
NEW Senetas chief John DuBois is baffled about the dearth of market confidence in the purveyor of high-speed encryption devices. "I don't think the market understands us, to be honest," he laments.
But as DuBois knows, the market is all-knowing and never, ever wrong - especially day-traders, who account for about one third of the Senetas register and often punt big volumes on any given day.
Investors have sent Senetas shares 27 per cent lower since April 28, despite the company affirming its profit expectation on that date.
Earlier in April, chairman Francis Galbally offloaded 2 million of his Senetas shares at 60c, which didn't exactly go unnoticed.
In the latest setback, Senetas has been tainted by some bad odours emanating from its US distributor, SafeNet. Regulators are probing SafeNet over options granted to executives, as well as "accounting irregularities".
SafeNet has been a vital conduit for Senetas to win sensitive military and government contracts, but failed to deliver targeted sales in the first half.
DuBois says Senetas no longer relies on SafeNet, as it increasingly wins sales through direct channels. Senetas will continue to work with SafeNet, but is having talks with other US-based entities.
According to one Senetas watcher, chopping and changing US distribution isn't as easy, given the sensitive nature of the contracts. He also questions whether the Senetas product suite is as unique as the company claims it is.
To be fair, Senetas has been winning a number of contracts elsewhere and expects to sign a distribution deal with two telcos.
SafeNet expects an $11 million pre-tax profit in the year to June 30. Given that it posted only $917,000 in the first half, it needs a monster second half.
Galbally says management realised last November that SafeNet wasn't going to be the revenue generator it had assumed. Senetas argued that the loss of contracts was a timing issue only, and that the cash would flow in the second (current) half.
Senetas was Criterion's glamour stock last year, hitting a peak of 91c in early December.
DuBois says the "real value" of Senetas stock is around 55c, but Criterion remains cautious.
We last rated Senetas as a HOLD at 63.5c in early March, and will continue to do so, at least until DuBois holds a strategy briefing within the next three weeks.
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Nice post on the point and figure ghekko.....still trying to get my head around the poles though.....would enjoy a bit more explanation...
cheers
cheers
