SEN - Senetas Corporation

[Warren]

There has been no news that warranted the initial fall to $0.30. I am assuming that when the market started its tumble, people panicked and sold out of positions perceived to be risky - eg tech stocks. Price movements on no news mean nothing, other than that the stock may have been oversold relative to its intrinsic value.

 

[123enen]

They didn't admit the weakness directly. I gathered that as NPAT forecasts were unchanged from a recent meeting, asset sales were likely making up for a shortfall in product sales. It will be a cold day in hell when management actually admit low quality earnings.

Yes, quite right. They are not the most informative of companies.

Have you actually seen the SEN forecast 2006 NPAT figures printed anywhere? How do you know they are unchanged from 2005?
I have not seen them and I have questioned SEN directly on 2006 NPAT and EPS but they will not reply.

I imagine that one of the NPAT challenges they will have in 2006 is that the tax break benefit of $2.6M they received in 2005 will not be duplicated in 2006. They wil not get a tax break this year and will in fact pay tax this year.
Additionally their 2006 EPS will be challenged due to the increase in weighted shares outstanding.


Sangshim,
The recent price increase is partly a reflection of an oversold position, although there was no justification for the price to get as high as it did earlier this year.
The price increase is also going to be bosted by another round of takeover rumours, once again.

 

[Warren]

I am going on their 28 April 2006 statement to the ASX citing confirmation of NPBT of $11 million.

 

[123enen]

I am going on their 28 April 2006 statement to the ASX citing confirmation of NPBT of $11 million.

That's not NPAT - that's NPBT = before tax, not after tax.

2005 NPBT was $7.3M. 2006 NPBT forecast at $11M

 

[Fab]

Good day + 10% today and going

 

[sangshim]

I'm lost here... What's going on?
There was an ann yesterday and the sp dropped from 2.5c gain to 0.5c gain.
And today.. all of sudden sp rises 15%.
What's going on?

 

[Warren]

I am aware that NPBT is before tax. This is the metric that SEN provide guidance on. My point was not that this figure was unchanged from the previous year but that it was unchanged following lost sales in 1H06. As NPBT is post abnormals I assumed that the sale of cybertrust (?) must make up the difference.

 

[123enen]

As NPBT is post abnormals I assumed that the sale of cybertrust (?) must make up the difference.

Yes there will be a larger that normal contribution from that sale and other licence fees.

 

[sangshim]

---------------------------------------------
ASX:SEN Hope to see upside
Post #35562 by: ausgeo Reads: 49 Position: Unknown Report Abuse 23-06-2006 15:33
IP 139.168.xxx.xxx

Market happy with anns.
Hope to see uptrend.
Fund are interested to jump in.If takeover news is to be true, sp will usually go up.

Not bad for short to mid term.IMO

-----------------------------------

Found this interesting post in topstock.
Is there takeover rumour going on?

 

[sangshim]

up 10%+ again today...
I don't think the last announcement is good enough to push sp more than 20%. There must be something else going on...

 

[Warren]

More buyers than sellers

 

[Fab]

Yep. GOing up again after a long long downtrend. I am starting to feel happy that I top up at 0.30. The problem is I also top up ENG at 0.30 at the same time and ENG is following the same downtrend that SEN

 

[sangshim]

It surely was an exciting day.
went upto 0.490 and ended at 0.465 (3.5c up) with over 14m trading volume.
Should I take some of the profits now? or waits?

 

[stiger]

Patience will be rewarded.

 

[123enen]

I would not sell my shares yet

 

[sangshim]

: me neither.. but since I've been accumulating my shares since it was 55c... I feel a bit nervous.. (Even though I've recovered all the loss)

 

[sangshim]

Down 4c (9%) today...
Should have taken some profit yesterday and bought it back today or later..

 

[Fab]

Yep. Unfortunately what goes up goes down almost as fast with SEN

 

[stiger]

Parting is such sweet sorrow See what tuesday brings.

 

[sangshim]

+ve ann released today... but seems like the market's not responding just yet.
Would it take a day or two for the traders to move in as it did with the ann released last week?