Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

SEN - Senetas Corporation

Yeah but looks like we're hitting that magic (?) .375 figure now :D

Are we looking at renewed interest?

edit: make that .385 now
 
Was a solid day. Held strongly at .38 for a while then finished weaker. Sellers seem to be coming back in especially towards the end of the day. I believe some traders will play with this now for a bit until a good $ announcement comes out. I will hold through this till then and accumulate if in the low 30's. If buyers are strong enough now and absorb the sellers coming back in then we will be in for a ride again. If the institutions they spoke to take notice then this will happen. Big question is will they?
This could end up similar to the last few ann.'s and just a temporary bounce although this time with what seems to be a definite bottom. I think those that hold medium to long term will be rewarded well. All IMHO of course.
 
Another update for you from ss

OK From a technical perspective... A road map for the way ahead...
So We can tell if SEN is on or off course.........

A selling climax is the final panicky unloading of shares, which are snapped up by more savvy operators... On a bar chart , a selling climax is indicated by a sudden abnormally large surge in volume , sellers frantically unloading their losing positions..The price range drops and widens , at the lows professionals rush in and the selling climaxes with the closing price occurring near the high of the bar.. The volume and price action alone indicate an oversold condition.....

OK clear and unambiguously seen on the SEN chart below ..(marked SC )

A technical rally follows , volume dips and the price jumps higher on a rally.... (marked TR )

The market seems to have turned suddenly bullish... BUT...In actuality It is the ensuing secondary reaction which will show where the market is most likely headed...because it will reveal the conviction and intent of the buyers who bought in the selling climax..

IF the buyers during the selling climax do not intend to hold onto their purchases.. Then those stocks will be thrown back onto the market... Often in the technical rally...

If this new supply is too large for buyers to absorb , the market reacts with prices dropping lower than the extreme low of the selling climax.. and a new decline is most likely going to follow...

How ever if the market reacts to the initial rally with shrinking volume and prices hold above the selling climax low..It indicates that the selling spree has stabilized and with buying power again coming into the market an upturn most likely, is on the way...

(The buyers ARE savvy and will use any lower prices to buy more...)

If the reaction low holds above the climax low.. It indicates the decline has bottomed and final confirmation of the reversal would be prices rising above the technical rally's high..

The technical rally's high point is a critical point of resistance .. it is at .385
The climax low is a critical point of support.. it is at .295

breaching either of these points with rising volume is an especially significant indication..

If the current reaction low holds... then the support is broadening into a zone..

OK ( orthodox Wyckoff ) Purchase points ?

Within the climax itself....that was I judged confirmed at .32

As this secondary reaction low forms and volume and price expand upwards....

And last ( but coming third ) A breakout above the technically rally high which would be at .39

If the reaction low holds and volume dries up.. Then the signs are that the selling pressure has exhausted...and that it will be the buyers that have to start to reach

The stock then is said to be on the springboard or at the hinge..
Or to have arrived at dead centre...



OK where are We ? Right at this moment, on track..

Volume and price are following the script

We saw a large volume climax..The close was at the highs... Then followed a small rally with falling volume ( fewer sellers ? )
Now a small reaction ( yes so far ) and even lower volume (today's action would confirm that trend if the chart was updated )

OK so We see

important points .295...and ...385....in the context of accompanying volume...


Point and figure chart shows the same dynamics...the pole reversal at .34 was confirmed with the intraday price of .385 ( remember it is a High low chart )

The current reversal ( red column ) At the moment is healthy...
A double top buy signal if formed at .39 will confirm a trend change and activate a Vertical count projection of .53

But a step at a time... and ... we need to see confirmation...

Thought I would get this on the forum...ahead of time So has to give the market plenty of
opportunity to prove me wrong in calling SEN a buy...
In any case people are not going to hold off buying and let this fall below .295 ...if they really want the stock ( and 20+ million shares traded is saying that they do )
Just to thwart Me...

The above dynamics are from the methodology of Richard D. Wyckoff

Circa 1873 ~ 1933

matches with much modern thinking eg..

"when our results here are combined ......... they suggest two basic conclusions about the dominant influences on price formation. First, the balance between liquidity taking and liquidity provision is key. As a result of this imbalance shifting,( shares from the panicky to the savvy ? )
( Then ) for a given transaction size prices can change more or less easily, and the size of the ( subsequent ) changes can vary. ( same volume same transactions but it goes up now )................ Second, the market displays interesting dynamics on long time scales that cause this imbalance to vary in a highly correlated manner. ( There is a pattern ... Accumulation.. leading to Markup..then on to distribution leading to markdown )....

taken from ( brackets My comment ) Gillemot, L., J. D. Farmer, and F. Lillo. -Circa 2005

(Hmmm... A tape reader from the turn of the 20th century in agreement with a 21st century academic ...)

Of course there is No certainty...And SEN has been in a confirmed downtrend.. That makes it a little different to something like AMP in a confirmed uptrend and which has displayed the same dynamics in a mini cycle....

So We have the hurdles ...let's see if SEN is up to the task...


""any lower than this and it confirms the downtrend. ""

At this stage I would say not So... and at .295 We would have to examine the context.
The action ATM is in that Selling Climax... The whole tone of the technical position hinges there...until that is negated the downtrend is not confirmed..

We can be 100% ceretain only after the event...


motorway
 

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Senetas suggested it was prematurely announced by boardroom radio and are not sure when it is going to be rescheduled for. Another blemish from senetas in their investor relations imo.
 
sangshim said:
what's imho?

IMHO means in my humble opinion.

I wouldn't be too quick to jump in with SEN.I've traded it a few times but due to the past volatility it is too easy to get stopped out.

My theory is when the trend does change there will be plenty upside available, so trying to pick the bottom is futile imho.:)
 
I bought 14000 at 0.30 last week actually by mistake as I did not realize that I had an order left hanging. Luckily it looks like 0.30 might be the bottom as it is bouncing back strongly today in good volume +11%.
I guess SEN has fallen enough in recent month and this must be a buying opportunity. Any comments on this are welcome . ;)
 
Fab said:
I bought 14000 at 0.30 last week actually by mistake as I did not realize that I had an order left hanging. Luckily it looks like 0.30 might be the bottom as it is bouncing back strongly today in good volume +11%.
I guess SEN has fallen enough in recent month and this must be a buying opportunity. Any comments on this are welcome . ;)

0.30 looks like a good price to buy.. and I'm happy with SEN gaining over 15% in last one week... but... I think sp will go down to 0.285~0.315 again unless there's announcement on the sales from the alternative channels they have been building.
 
I have been following this stock for a while, and really like it. I have done a small summary piece on it if anyone is interested. The key to this stock is achieveing distribution success, and I am confident it will. Food for thought on this stock below. Note these are only my opinions.

SEN

Background

• Leading global supplier of high speed hardware encryption technology.
• Products have the highest international levels of accreditation – US EAL and US FIPS standard.
• High speed military grade encryption provided over copper wire and fibre optic networks
• Clients include: US Govt, US Military, Australian Govt, Australian Military, Saudi Military, large financial institutions, commercial and govt clients in Middle East.
• Key products: 1Gbs Ethernet encryptors, Cypherblade, SONET encryptors

Competitive Advantages

• Key competitive advantage is accreditation at US EAL and US FIPS standards. As it takes approximately two years for competitors to achieve similar levels of accreditation, SEN has at least two years to maintain its dominant market position once a competitor announces its intention to obtain accreditation. To date, SEN are not aware of any competitors that have applied to begin the accreditation process.
• Established relationships with partners in key markets – Safenet in US and now Cybernet ($US 1bn revenue p.a.). Potential for distribution agreement with IBM still in negotiation stage.
• Established credibility in U.S and are leveraging that in negotiations throughout Australia, New Zealand, Middle East, Asia.
• Commitment to R&D has ensured regular release of new products or upgrades to existing products: ATM to SONET to ETHERNET within 18 months. Puts competition a long way behind given the two year proving period.

Strengths

• Strong cash flow
• Debt free
• Significant operating leverage – only 16 full-time programmers/engineers. Negligible capex required per additional client/contract.
• Customer stickiness – significant investment in deploying SEN “boxes” throughout client network. The technology is proven, and given mission critical nature of data protected makes it difficult and unlikely that client would put the contract out to tender unless there was a major failure by SEN.
• Daily share buy-back/capital management
• Payment of all profits as dividends.

Weaknesses

• Sales “lumpiness” – SEN to take more direct control of sales and marketing of product in Asia and Middle East.
• To get access to US markets and gain credibility during SEN’s early corporate life, particularly US military, SEN needed to form a strategic partnership with Safenet. Safenet was given exclusive distribution rights for SEN products in the US and Asia/Middle East. Safenet have not proved to be particularly effective in expanding the sales base beyond the US military. As having exclusivity over SEN products is clearly very valuable to Safenet, they are unlikely to be willing to renegotiate the deal (ie exclusivity) without something in return – most likely a lower royalty payment to SEN. However, sales made through other avenues generate almost double the revenue relative to sales through safenet.

Opportunities

• A recent discussion with the investor relations manager indicated an emerging opportunity exists in mobile phone encryption. No detail on potential market size etc, but given mobile phone penetration as well as rapidly progressing technology, the potential is obvious.
• Distribution – this is a key to the success of the company. New deals with Cybertrust, possibly IBM and reduced reliance on Safenet for sales in US a step in the right direction. In addition, recent agreement with Crescent Technologies that provides a $3 million upfront payment plus ongoing royalties of 15% of all sales that incorporate SEN technology. They have the product, they just have to get it out to the market. Revenue from non-Safenet sales is roughly double – obvious opportunities to expand revenue base if effective distribution network is built.
• Recent agreement with Crescent technologies not only provides additional royalty payments but has also opened up new high level security and defence contracts.

Risks

• After speaking with contacts at the company, it was indicated that while the company should achieve its stated earnings this year, the quality of the result may be a little weaker than usual. He explained that given the poor performance of Safenet, sales that were expected to materialise have been lost. The shortfall (approximately $2 million) is expected to be made up predominantly of asset sales rather than additional product sales. Hence, some weakness following the coming result could be possible.
• Key risk is that distribution network does not develop as hoped. Reliance on one partner has so far proved ineffective. Effective distribution network is critical. At the moment they are rapidly developing this. They have stated on numerous occasions that achieving “multiple routes to market” is now a priority.
• The revenue model currently does not have a significant annuity component, so steady revenue is reliant on continued and regular sales. Risk is very lumpy sales (currently being experienced).
• Technology obsolescence. Competitive advantages in relation to accreditation generally ensure that this is less of an issue than for other companies, but when a competitor does emerge, this should be monitored closely.

Selected Financials

• PE: 23 x ’06, 17 x 08 vs sector average of approximately 18-19 times ’06.
• ROE: 25% in FY06 growing to 50% in FY08 and 60% in FY11. Makes sense given high operating leverage, strong forecast profit growth and daily share buy-back program.
• ROA: approximately 30-40% for FY06 – FY11 (forecast horizon).
• NPAT margin: generally around 30%
• Dividend yield: approximately 5% on FY07 numbers.
• Valuation (DCF): $0.58
• Market Cap: $187m



Conclusion

• Very strong competitive position
• Very positive financial characteristics: no debt, strong cash flow, dividend paying, high operating leverage, daily capital management.
• Significant “flagship” clients – eg Pentagon
• Key risk is distribution failure. Significant inroads being made into achieving more diverse “routes to market” to mitigate this risk – new partnerships with Cybernet, Crescent Technologies, potentially IBM, Safenet.
• 2 year accreditation period provides protection against technical obsolescence
• Possibly some weakness going into full year ’06 result given potential earnings quality issues, but longer term (6-12 months) there is significant upside. Price target of $0.60 not unreasonable.
 
You have written an excellent summary of Senetas.
I feel that you are a little too generous on your assesment of SEN's leadership position. I suspect there are several competitors closing in on SEN's first mover advantage.

Thales, AT Media and perhaps even Safenet themselves will be working on development of high speed Ethernet encryptors, and don't wait for SEN to tell you so. All of a sudden a competitive product will be available and the advantage will be gone.

Recently the US NSC agency requested that Safenet develop a classified Type 1 version 10Gbs SONET encryptor. Safenet will use its subsidiary company, Mykotronx to develop the item.
The encryptor product range is a little difficult to comprehend but why wasn't SEN involved? Does the SEN SONET encryptor lack CCEP approval, or are NSA so paranoid that they will not have a non USA company develop their security product?


IN FY 2005 total worldwide sales of SEN security product was $28M, Safenet was responsible for $22M, nearly 80%,for which Senetas received royalties of $7.6M.
I am not sure that sales made through other avenues generate almost double the revenue relative to sales through safenet but I do agree that SEN must reduce their dependance on Safenet and develop their distribution channels.

You mentioned possible weakness in the 2006 FY results. When did you speak with the company to discuss the FY results? They actually admitted this weakness to you?
If it was some time ago I wonder if the sales have improved since?
I also presume the assett sales they refer to is the sale of the eCrypt business to CTV.
 
They didn't admit the weakness directly. I gathered that as NPAT forecasts were unchanged from a recent meeting, asset sales were likely making up for a shortfall in product sales. It will be a cold day in hell when management actually admit low quality earnings.

I gave gathered that new distribution agreements are not likely to be as lucrative for the distributors as that which was signed with Safenet. Given SEN needed Safenet to gain credibility and access to high level clients in the US, this is understandable.

The advantage in the leadership position mostly pertains to government and military clients that require the EAL and FIPS accreditation. Granted, defense of its competitive position in markets that don't require such accreditation is essential and is always under threat.
 
BTW, Don't you guys think recent sp movement is rather promising?

In last 6 months, sp never been rising for more than 2~3 days. But in last 10 days, sp has been going up up up up~ from 30c to 39c..

I wish this means the change of the trend...
 
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