SDL - Sundance Resources

[lioness]

We were told d bank would recommend sdl the partners in march/april... And now we r told the project just received more interests after the congo driling result 2 weeks ago!

Sure we r all bit disappointed...

Whats so disappointing, she is in an uptrend and closed at 16 on the weekly. Once we go up a wee bit more, we are in breakout territory. If we get partners in may/june like I suspect, then we will see 40 cents. Patience, they have to announce something soon or it will be sold down again and whoever DB are buying doesn't want that.

Capital partners also are happy with this stock as it is their number one holding. Once the accumulators are finished, she will go up. Reckon by June this will be 40 cents. Come back and spank me if it isn't.

 

[LRG]

i hope so. i have bought so manly SDL - all my chips are in this due to the talbot connection. in a recent courier mail report he said it is part of his 10 yeaar plan. But i cant wait 10 years - I need a significant exponential return in 2 years! Why i bloody hate my job working for tossers for a middle management salary,
Captain, she cant take it much longer, scotty go warp factor 5 now...

 

[lioness]

i hope so. i have bought so manly SDL - all my chips are in this due to the talbot connection. in a recent courier mail report he said it is part of his 10 yeaar plan. But i cant wait 10 years - I need a significant exponential return in 2 years! Why i bloody hate my job working for tossers for a middle management salary,
Captain, she cant take it much longer, scotty go warp factor 5 now...

When the strategic partner is announced soon, warp 5 will look slow. DB and UBS are not buying for play time, they are buying for the one partner in my view.

 

[bleach8]

Whats so disappointing, she is in an uptrend and closed at 16 on the weekly. Once we go up a wee bit more, we are in breakout territory. If we get partners in may/june like I suspect, then we will see 40 cents. Patience, they have to announce something soon or it will be sold down again and whoever DB are buying doesn't want that.

Capital partners also are happy with this stock as it is their number one holding. Once the accumulators are finished, she will go up. Reckon by June this will be 40 cents. Come back and spank me if it isn't.

Hi! I really hope ur guess can come true ....i just have far too many shares of SDL. My 40-50 c is my end of 2010 target ....it looks unlikely now!

Seriously man !!! we have been told that SDL has always had strong interests from " who knows where".... and we are expecting some big announcements soon!! but why do they have to go on a roadshow to sell this project now? we should at least at a stage of negotiation with few partners !! or ...interested parties should have already approached the management ...isn't it D bank had anything under control !?!?!? isn’t too late to sell this project to new partners at this stage ...


if it can reach 40c in June.... pls man ...come to Melbourne ..celebrate with me ...i will pay all your travel expenses ...lol

 

[lioness]

Hi! I really hope ur guess can come true ....i just have far too many shares of SDL. My 40-50 c is my end of 2010 target ....it looks unlikely now!

Seriously man !!! we have been told that SDL has always had strong interests from " who knows where".... and we are expecting some big announcements soon!! but why do they have to go on a roadshow to sell this project now? we should at least at a stage of negotiation with few partners !! or ...interested parties should have already approached the management ...isn't it D bank had anything under control !?!?!? isn’t too late to sell this project to new partners at this stage ...


if it can reach 40c in June.... pls man ...come to Melbourne ..celebrate with me ...i will pay all your travel expenses ...lol

What is your average price here Bleach? Just interested, it wont be too hard for this to breakout within the next month with great drilling results.

 

[bleach8]

What is your average price here Bleach? Just interested, it wont be too hard for this to breakout within the next month with great drilling results.

my average is around 15c similar to the last captial riase...

We all know there will be encouraging drilling result of 100-250mt …but the production rate is still at 35mt a year… I guess it is at a stage that investors want progress on project funding and off-takes ….

Obviously, the project is not possible without the Congo part(and we haven’t been told the reason for it, all we have been told is that Cameroon alone would be sufficient and received strong interests for last 18 mths). But the Congo is only at its initial stage …who knows how long it will take to finalise all the studies and the terms with the government …

“ we are very pleased with the d bank’s progress with the negotiation…!!!” why are they pleased? What progress? I think there will be no progress at all before the Congo thing.

Again, drilling result will increase the value of SDL, but not to a great extend. I just hope they can announce something solid by the end of 2010. By the look of it, other than these monthly drilling update, there will not be anything significant until well into the second half …if lucky maybe November.

 

[lioness]

my average is around 15c similar to the last captial riase...

We all know there will be encouraging drilling result of 100-250mt …but the production rate is still at 35mt a year… I guess it is at a stage that investors want progress on project funding and off-takes ….

Obviously, the project is not possible without the Congo part(and we haven’t been told the reason for it, all we have been told is that Cameroon alone would be sufficient and received strong interests for last 18 mths). But the Congo is only at its initial stage …who knows how long it will take to finalise all the studies and the terms with the government …

“ we are very pleased with the d bank’s progress with the negotiation…!!!” why are they pleased? What progress? I think there will be no progress at all before the Congo thing.

Again, drilling result will increase the value of SDL, but not to a great extend. I just hope they can announce something solid by the end of 2010. By the look of it, other than these monthly drilling update, there will not be anything significant until well into the second half …if lucky maybe November.

If you are bored here, dump then and move on. Dont know what you are expecting here. Will move only when partner is announced and that will happen in the next few months. Probably your last chance to get out for a decent profit. Wont be hard getting a partner after this news:

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE63T46M20100430

The move is significant for Vale (VALE5.SA) (VALE.N), the world's largest iron ore miner that is aggressively seeking opportunities in Africa, and for Guinea, where a political crisis has largely discouraged major foreign investment.

"Guinea will be a player on the world iron market within four years and could be the No. 3 producer in six years," Mines Minister Mahmoud Thiam said. "This decision will also kick-start other mining projects in Guinea."

The acquisition will give Vale access to properties with high-quality iron reserves that include the Simandou South property known as Zogota as well as exploration blocks Simandou North 1 and 2, the company said.

Output will begin in 2012 with 10 million tons of iron ore and reach 50 million tons by 2015, Vale said.

It will pay $500 million up front for a 51 percent stake in BSG Resources (Guinea) Ltd. and the remaining $2 billion in subsequent payments over an unspecified period.

"This project is yet another indication of Vale's bullish views on the longevity of the iron ore pricing cycle, and the structural iron ore story," Barclay's capital analysts said in a research note, adding "Given the massive infrastructure requirements...we are skeptical on the time-to-market of these projects..."

AFRICA STRATEGY

The joint venture will renovate 660 kilometers (410 miles) of railway on which Vale plans to export the ore via Liberia.

BSG Resources, with oil and gas projects in Russia and Nigeria, copper, diamonds and iron ore mines in Africa, and an engineering arm, is controlled by Israeli billionaire diamond trader Beny Steinmetz.

Vale is making a big push into African iron ore.

In addition to the Guinea deal, Vale is in talks with Liberia, Guinea's southern neighbor, about a possible concession there, and may seek a stake in the Belinga iron ore project in Gabon.

The Belinga concession was awarded to a Chinese firm ahead of Vale in 2006, but Gabon is reviewing the deal. Analysts believe a Chinese company will lead the project and they expect Vale to take a technical or environmental role.

In March, Chinese metals group Chinalco signed a joint venture agreement with Rio Tinto (RIO.L) (RIO.AX) to develop another iron ore project in Guinea.

The West African country is due to hold elections in late June as part of its transition from military rule to democratic government. Soldiers took power in Guinea in December 2008.

 

[bleach8]

dont get me wrong please! i have started to accumulating SDL for almost a year. And I have seen a lot positive news like this before. I m just frustrated with the timing …the timeline… last year this time …ppl in this forum were expecting the finance deal would be announced “in the next few months” ….

I wont get out , as I still believe in the potential of the company like you…but to be honest, long time retail holder of SDL would be frustrated after reading the QR….

All I want is a more realistic and specific time line from the management …

 

[lioness]

Bleach, UBS and DB are now 5% plus holders, what does that tell you? It tells you a deal is very close now as part of the deal would be the partner buying a % stake into the company. That gives me heaps of confidence a deal is close. My estimate is by June we will have it completed and a share price a lot higher than now. A few cents up or down is meaningless really. Ask FMG holders when they sold for $2 and the price went to $70 before the split. Look at the bigger prize.

This is from a poster off HC on values of SDL:

Hi all,

Following presents two parts of my analyses: The first part deals with SDL re-valuation, a review of the previous model (model1) using different assumptions as described here-in. The second part is about Project funding strategies, a hot topic that most of us want to know but fear to deal with them (lol). The two parts are obviously related together as it's all about the impact of SDL share price.

PART I - SDL Valuation based on Project CashFlow (AGM Nov 2009)

SDL valuation : Price target AUD$0.98

Following are the review of my calculation of SDL Share price based on SDL Project Cashflow and returns from AGM Nov 2009 (P23). For practical reason, I tend to do my valuation using real project cashflow (report in Nov 2009).

Note that the figures of nominal project cashflow in "Investor Presentation March 2010", present values without adjusting for inflation.

My intention in this valuation are to check two important things. With the assumption of "10 years High Grade (DSO) production", verify whether SDL is able to:
1. Pay back initial capital over a period of 3 years. This has been stated through cf "Investor Presentation March 2010" (P2)
2. Fully funded Phase 2 Itabirite CAPEX from project (Page 23)

Without successfully achieving Point 1 (as above), it would be hard to see SDL introducing a second CAPEX, where a cumulation of debt could potentially cripple its growth.

The approach I used is Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) valuation, similar to previous models.
Again I try to keep the modeling as realistic as possible, based on estimates data provided in SDL AGM Nov 2009 Report, mainly from SDL's Project Cashflow section (Page 23)

At this stage, as I don't know the terms of funding, I have assumed that the project is fully debt funded
(refer to "Project funding strategies" further in this document)

Following are the assumptions for my valuation:
Model3 : Mining 25 Years, 325Mt DSO and remaining Pellet Feed Concentrate (or Concentrate Product)
- 35Mtpa High Grade production target for first 10 years
starting with 325Mt DSO and remaining years, Pellet Feed Concentrate)
- Production mining = 25 Years
- CAPEX1 for initial startup with DSO = US$ 3,350 Millions
- CAPEX2 for phase 2 Itabirite (to be funded from cashflow) = US$2,800 Millions
- Fully debt funded project with US$3,350 million, Interest rate on debt = 10%

Based on SDL Project Cashflow and Returns (P23):
- Avg annual revenues = US$2,136 Millions
- Avg annual capital costs & working capital = US$1,048 Millions
- Avg annual EBITDA = US$921 Millions

- Net Present Value (NPV) using WACC at 11.3% (similar to Goldman Sachs Valuation report (Nov 2007))
- Corporate TAX = Tax free holiday for first 10 years (0%), and 15% thereafter
- Royalty = 2.5% on revenues
- Corporate Structure:
- Gov stake = 25% (10% + 15%)
- SDL = 67.5%

Note:
1) I disregard the calculation of company's depreciation:
- The introduction of company's depreciation will lower TAX and increase cash flow.
2) Royalties have been taken into account in this model
3) Parity US$ vs AUD$ has been reviewed from previous model: change from 0.8 to 0.9
("Like most Australian resource companies, SDL deals in US$ with its customers so any appreciation of the A$ against the US$ has a negative impact when translated for financial reporting purposes - Goldman Sachs, Valuation report Nov 2007")

 

[lioness]

And the rest bleach:


Results of my valuation:
- Number shares on issues = 2,800 Millions
- Extra Revenue cash = US$ 50 Millions (as we assume Gov. stake is 25%)
- PV at 11.3% = US$3,602 Millions
- SDL stake = 67.5%
- NPV at 11.3% = US$2,465 Millions
- Parity US$ vs AUD$ = 0.9
- Value per share in US$ = $0.88
- Value per share in AUD$ = $0.98

Points to note:
Debts
1. With strong net cashflows over the first 4 years in production (2014-2017), the modeling indicated a possible payback period of less than 4 years, with first payment starting from Y2014. In 2017, SDL presents with a net positive cash flows of US$2,856 Million, after a complete repayment of its debt (CAPEX1). This should be enough for SDL to launch a second CAPEX (US$2,800 Million) in 2018, for phase 2 Itabirite: CAPEX 2 is fully funded.

Note a remaining net cash flow of US$56 Million after CAPEX 2 spending.
(re. Graph for Net CashFlow projection in 2017).

2. The model shows SDL having NO DEBT since the full repayment of CAPEX1 in Y2017 (re. Graph "Total CAPEX outstanding" = 0 from that period).

3. With an assumtion of Interest rate = 10%, the total interest costs against CAPEX1 = US$1,417 Million. These costs are much higher in my previous model as debt re-payments were calculated over a period of 15 years.

Net Cash Flows
4. The annual Net cash flow looks very robust after the total debt repayment of CAPEX1, with high annual cashflow reaching around US$1,500 Million mark from Y2018 to Y2022 (re Graph "Net Cash Flow projection" line).
From Y2023 ownwards, the annual net cashflow drop dramatically (nearly half of its highest values) for two main reasons:
- High Annual Operatings costs (Itabirite concentrate), nearly double from US$700 Million to US1,300 Million
- Introduction of 15% TAX from Y2023

Note that we need to factor in with the higher cost of producing Itabirite the fact that also it will bring in a higher selling price. By that stage I guess SDL would also be looking at getting revenues from others using the rail system and port system. I would imagine SDL would have built the Pellet feed and DR concentrate plants and could be treating other companies iron ore and getting revenues from doing that.
Of course the above would involve extra cash spending by SDL or others to produce the plants.

TAX & Royalties
5. Total Royalties = US$656 Million, avg p.a. = US$26 Million.
Total TAX = US$2,010 Million, avg p.a. = US$134 Million
Total TAX + Royalties = US$2,666 Million

Royalties have been taken into account in this model.
TAX could be less if I take into account company's depreciation.

NPV Profile (Net Present Value)
6. Net Present Values (NPV) are negative during the first three years due to the introduction of CAPEX1. NPV remains flat (US$0) from period 2013 till 2016 as Net Cash Flows are being used to repay debt of CAPEX 1 and to funding CAPEX 2.

NPV starts growing substantially from Y2018 ownwards after total refund of CAPEX1, and drop significantly from Y2023 due to high operating costs of Itabirite phase 2 and also the introduction of TAX.

 

[lioness]

And the rest bleach:

Graph "NPV" line shows a very nice trend, which decreases slowly over time (it's normal).

A high NPV in this model can be explained by a combination of several factors:
Having a strong annual revenue, it is possible for SDL to:
1. Repay its initial debt/CAPEX1 quicker, in less than 4 years after starting production. The project has actually a 6-7 year payback period (same findings as Goldman Sachs Valuation in 2007)
2. Fully funded its second CAPEX for phase 2 Itabirite
3. Taking advantage to free all its debts before the introduction of TAX (starting Y2023, while SDL is debt free from 2017)

As a result, the annual Net Cash flows looks robust from 2018 ownwards.

7. Estimates SP = AUD$0.98 , which is much better in this model thanks to the quick debt re-payment.

Note: this estimates propel SP to AUD$1.10 if I change parity US$ vs AUD$ from 0.9 to 0.8 (from my previous model).

PART II - Project Funding Strategies
Project funding now takes another dimension and more paticularly for Junior Mining companies, with the recent GFC.
Funding selection criterias sit on both sides, not only from lenders but also from good mining company. To explain why project funding could be lenghtly for SDL, one needs to understand the choice for a potential JV/Partner is not an easy task.
Adopting a wrong strategy and they could go bust during worst situation (GFC): even with all the different options below, some of the juniors could be extinct by the time the bottom in equity and commodity markets is over.

Recall on what happened during the last GFC (Great Financial crisis):
Impacts during GFC:
As a consequence of liquidity crisis and credit freeze :
- pessimistic companies report difficulty borrowing money
- no ability to pay off high debts
- Different toll on different Securities
1. Companies filed for bankruptcy as resources equity financing become nearly impossible (bank not willing to lend)
2. Very Dilutive Equity Financing
3. Re-negociation Debt Covenants with risk re-pricing and re-rating companies
(bank likely to re-negociate debts with very higher interest and more dilution)
4. Funds drying up, target prices dropping, not healthy balance sheets

Surviving Downturn:
1. Layoffs, slash spending, and weather the storm
2. Seek creative, or non-traditional financing strategies in the secondary market to continue advancing the ccompany, and prepare for the next upturn
3. Off-take Agreements with strategic Investors/Partners
4. Raising capital to cover on-going projects, but with high yield debt financing
5. Merge or acquisitions
6. Sell assets

Funding the project - who does what?
From the above, lets examine different options of SDL funding, what are the risks (on both sides) and selection
criterias, and how will be likely the deal(s):

What the market (lenders) wants to see, and how to position for that:
1. Find a partner with a healthy balance sheet, robust operations and a track record.
2. Limited debt on balance sheet: beware of leverage, unless its manageable.
- size of loan, ability and duration to refund debt. longer is the debt, the risks are higher (on both sides)
3. Project with a stable cashflow.
4. Growth opportunities: find assets that have upside and find qualities exploration properties.
5. strong management: find management team with proven success.

Option 1 : fully debt funds (unlikely for SDL):
Who will likely be involved in funding: Bank/Financial Institution

What will be the likely deal(s):
Interest rate is important as this is the lender main resources, but they also want a guaranty in case the company cannot payback their debt. In my view, the bank will look for D/E in high range 30~50 (between 30:70 or 50:50) at an appropriate price at the time of issuance. This could represent a big dilution for SDL even at 30:70.

What SDL wants to see:
- Not a good deal as risks are very high
- Get a funding for project, but has a high dilution at the start, and that could cripple its future development.
- Cannot plan for growth (projects expansion) in medium term until debt refund at certain level
- Worst scenario (ex: GFC):
- Drop in sales: less demand, FOB price drop below
operating costs
- Loss in revenues if cannot guarantes sales
- SDL could no longer afford to payback debt
- Bank could Re-negociate Debt Covenants with risk re-pricing
- Anticipate for high dilution if need to raise capital to survive (high borrowing costs)
- Could go bust if not enough cash and over-geared

Option 2 : Funding with Debt/Equity (stake in company) : not a best deal
Who will likely be involved in funding: Bank/Financial Institution,JV Partners

What will be the likely deal(s):
- Similar to option 1 but with Debt/Equity as a guarantee for Banks or as a participation/investment in company for JV/Partners
- JV/Partners could propose a low or free interest rate, and in my view with a stake in company in the 20~30 range
(between 20:80 or 30:70)

What SDL wants to see:
- not a best deal as risks are still high, however debt could be limited with quick refund as low or free interest rate
- High dilution at the start, SP will slowly recover
- Worst scenario (ex: GFC):
- Similar to option 1 but have a better chance to survive if debt could be limited

Option 3 : Funding with Debt/Equity and off-take agreements: (good option)
Who will likely be involved in funding: Chinese/Japanese Steel Mills help arrange finance for security over offtake.

What will be the likely deal(s):
Conditions for an Off-take and strategic Investors/Parners
- Explorer with good projects. The company must have a mining project with measurable producion expected
- Want to secure resources with a better prices in LT
- Usually companies get an up-front cash paymeent, plus as a sweat condition (for example fixed price on the metals/minerals)
- Interest rate could be low or free, and in my view with D/E ratio around 5~10 (between 5:95 and 10:90)

What SDL wants to see:
- A good option for SDL as they can secure a partner (finance and sales)
- Less dilution and with low or free interest rate, payback debt will be quicker.
- Overseas strong financial partner to provide both Equity/Debt financing, combined with an off-take contract, representing pure relationship business (essentially important in bear markets):
- Worst scenario (ex: GFC):
- Slash spending and weather the storm
- Minimum sales guaranted through Off-take agreements
- Proceed with acquisition if get enough cash: buy AVIMA (lol)

Option 4 : Funding with offtake agreement: JV Partners (excellent option)
similar to option 3, but with no Debt/Equity

Who will be likely involved in funding: Chinese/Japanese Steel Mills wanting to diversify their iron supplies and to break the monopoly of the big three miners.

What will be the likely deal(s):
- JV/Partner will fund for the capital costs of the project
- Interest rate could be low or free
- They look for explorer with good projects. The company must have a mining project with measurable producion expected
- They want to secure resources with a better prices over LT.
- Usually companies get an up-front cash paymeent, plus as a sweat condition (for example fixed price on the metals/minerals)

What SDL wants to see:
- An excellent option for SDL as they can secure a partner (finance and sales)
- No dilution and with low or free interest rate, payback debt will be quicker.
- Worst scenario (ex: GFC):
- Slowdown spending
- Minimum sales guaranted through Off-take agreements
- Proceed with acquisition and prepare for the next upturn

Option 5 : Take over target (best option)
Could happen anytime as long as SDL has proven resources. Not to forget a high quantity of DSO (if SDL can get above 500Mt) is the main attraction for Steel mills and the big boys.

How SDL could target good options (option 3 or 4). What SDL needs to do?
- Prove its reserves and bring more DSO (at least 350Mt)
We have to consider that if Mt Nabeba ends up producing 300 to 500 million tonnes of DSO plus Itabirite,the DSO from Mbarga and Nabeba could then extend the DSO resource from 500 to 700 million tonnes. This would then extend the time line for producing DSO to twice the years already factored in.They would then be looking to be selling DSO and Itabirite at the same time.
Meridional could be brought into the equation as well as it seems to have high grade iron ore.
Metzimevin has not got large quantities of DSO, but it is higher grade than Mbarga and has a lot of Itabirite around it.

 

[lioness]

Conclusion
Option 1 or 2 is unlikely to happen, and I would imagine those 2 options were the one proposed by Banks or JV/partners last year. SDL is in bargaining power, and I can't see them taking further risks after all their hard works: SDL has certainly learned lessons during GFC and those things could happen again. At the worst there would be no deal, and delay could go for an extra 6 to 12 months, but during this time they could certainly afford drilling for more DSO as they got now 3 purchased drill rigs and has cheap labor at hand. Their position will keep strengthening over time and will lock into a better deal once the opportunity will present.

Also consider that the result from the above modeling rather conservative, using SDL avg FOB price of US$62.20/t, under the normal DSO at a price of around US$90 per tonne. That could be a reason for SDL not being in too much of a hurry to sign up to any deal until the price negotiations gave some indication as to the direction it was going. SDL have always been very conservative with the DSO price they use in their calculations, always been well below selling prices at the time of calculations. Around 20 to 25% below I believe.

In my view, option 3 or 4 will be likely the one we'll see on the table for this year:
- With EximBank building relations with The Cameroon Government through loans and free cash for projects. I think they are looking for more involvement in Cameroon and to not be known as the Chinese Government Bank that was involved in dirty dealings in Gabon through CEMEC and Belinga.

References
Breaking monopoly of the big three miners
"China's top steelmaker Baoshan Iron & Steel Co Ltd (Baosteel) on Thursday said the existing term pricing system for iron ore does not benefit steel and iron ore companies as ore supplies have become tight.
Xu Lejiang, chairman of Baosteel, said the steelmaker is now diversifying its iron ore sources in Africa, Canada and South America to tide over the tight supply situation.
Xu said it is important for steel companies to diversify their iron supplies as it will help them to have a bigger
say in the pricing talks and also help break the monopoly of the big three miners."
((Baosteel - (China Daily) 2010-03-26)

Example of deals
- Mitsubishi Materials Corp. purchased 25% equity interest in Copper Mountain Project (CUM: TSX) for $28.75m, arranged a $250m project loan, and contract to purchase all the copper con from the mine for 10 yrs.

- Korea Resource Corp (KORES) 30% acq. of Baja Mining Corp. (BAJ: TSX) for US$435m of project funding and 30% Off-Take Rights on Commercial Terms & 30% Completion Guarantee on Project Debt

- Atlas Iron Ltd has entered into a joint-venture agreement with Fortescue Metals Group Ltd (FMG) for Atlass Abydos project.
Atlas was able to seal a port access deal with Fortescue for its new Port Hedland iron ore export terminal. FMG
may earn a 60% joint-venture interest in the iron ore rights.

- BC Iron Limited (BCI) said that Nullagine Joint Venture, its 50% joint venture with Fortescue Metals Group
Limited (FMG), had secured its first off-take agreements with a Hong Kong-based industrial and trading company. The off-take agreement includes US$50 million in pre-payments to fund the development of the mine.

- Example of Shougang Finance/Steel Manufacturing
click here to see Shougang report
http://www.shougang-intl.com.hk/Doc/investor/epr090415.pdf

Why SDL is a different kind of animal
"While we recognise there are risks associated with an investment in SDL, we feel much of these are captured in the current share price. We feel the upside if SDL gets it right and develops Mbalam at a 35mtpa rate together with our favourable iron ore view outweigh the risk profile.

The key attraction of the Mbalam Project is its shear (potential) size and potential of high grade hematite deposit rather than a magnetite.

We believe the M&A theme in the iron ore market will continue. Given SDL's potential size we consider it a takeover candidate.

As SDL is still an explorer / developer, we believe exploration news flow could be a continuing positive catalyst for the stock."
(Goldman Sachs Valuation report - Nov 2007)

 

[indigotiling]

I was just wondering,Tis new miners tax MR RUDD is talking about,will this make investors look elsewere for iron ore?As prices in australia may increase due to new tax?
Also lioness your calculations are saying that sundance will be 89 cents,Is this the value once offtake/partners are announced and construction of mine has began?
I actually thought they would be around the $2 area.
Also thats a pretty impressive explanation you have written loiness.
Keep up the good work.

Iv been holding sdl for quite a while,still believe this is a volcano ready to erupt!!!! J ust gotta be patient.
Projects of this size dont happen over night.

 

[The Muffin Man]

dont get me wrong please! i have started to accumulating SDL for almost a year. And I have seen a lot positive news like this before. I m just frustrated with the timing …the timeline… last year this time …ppl in this forum were expecting the finance deal would be announced “in the next few months” ….

I wont get out , as I still believe in the potential of the company like you…but to be honest, long time retail holder of SDL would be frustrated after reading the QR….

All I want is a more realistic and specific time line from the management …

That's your problem isn't it? People in this forum know absolutely nothing about what is going on behind closed doors, so why would you base your opinions on what people here "think" or "expect?"

We have been told that confidentiality agreements are in place with all prospective partners, so why would you expect a running commentary from SDL about how things are progressing? Simply put, they can't tell you because they are bound by the same agreements.

Go back through the timelines and re-read them. There was no mention of PUBLICALLY announcing any strategic partners in March-April.

Why has DB and UBS bought over 5% of this stock, and why does Talbot, a director, still hold a massive percentage of the company?

If you can't be patient, sell your shares to me so we don't have to hear the incessant complaining from you.

 

[indigotiling]

Probably good news for sundance,seeing the latest news,this big tax for mining companys in australia is making shareholders and investors scared and look maybe for oversea companys for a better investment (sundance?)
I think this is an advantage for sundance being in sth africa.

 

[LRG]

Hello all,

What has happened to SDL today! appoint a new senior manger announcement. 19.1M shares traded today closed on the low of 14.5 c down nearly 10% from the previous close of 16.0 c.


not good when i recently topped up at 16.5 c!

 

[Pythagerous]

Just following the market LRG. The market has been largely affected by Greece and the Henry Review. If you take a look at a lot of miners based in Australia, they have taken an absolute hammering, which is what has driven the overall market down.

 

[lioness]

Taken a hammering today, let's hope it can bounce. Needs some sensitive news out of the blue unexpected.

I wouldn't worry LRG as it has always bounced back. Should be no different as the RRT doesn't affect SDL.

Reckon DB or UBS bought heaps today as they manipulated down in my view, triggering stop losses.

 

[bleach8]

Taken a hammering today, let's hope it can bounce. Needs some sensitive news out of the blue unexpected.

I wouldn't worry LRG as it has always bounced back. Should be no different as the RRT doesn't affect SDL.

Reckon DB or UBS bought heaps today as they manipulated down in my view, triggering stop losses.

generally, price movement comes after volume for SDL ..so there wont be any positive sensitive news out of the blue ...just wish there will be unexpected high volume push price up...and then follows with news

Also, the net volume is selling down, isnt it? and 20m shares traded, 10% down ...how do you know that UBS and DB didn't sell heaps? what concerns me is the super profit tax doesnt affect SDL, and it is still going down 10% with hight volume. lets hope there wont be any unexpected -ve news tomorrow.

 

[Speculator]

generally, price movement comes after volume for SDL ..so there wont be any positive sensitive news out of the blue ...just wish there will be unexpected high volume push price up...and then follows with news

Also, the net volume is selling down, isnt it? and 20m shares traded, 10% down ...how do you know that UBS and DB didn't sell heaps? what concerns me is the super profit tax doesnt affect SDL, and it is still going down 10% with hight volume. lets hope there wont be any unexpected -ve news tomorrow.

If there was unexpected negative news to come the sp would have fallen further than it has imo.

The decrease in sp is probably people being risk adverse with all the uncertainty atm (greece, henry, dow, china).

Also alot of people in the mining sector would have had margin calls today some people probs just needed the coin.