SDL - Sundance Resources

[lioness]

If there was unexpected negative news to come the sp would have fallen further than it has imo.

The decrease in sp is probably people being risk adverse with all the uncertainty atm (greece, henry, dow, china).

Also alot of people in the mining sector would have had margin calls today some people probs just needed the coin.

Looking bad LRG and friends. Not even bouncing today. I suspect this will be sitting at 13 cents for a few months until the next drilling results. We need a partner announcement and quick!!

 

[5haretrader]

Of course I am nowhere near as knowledgeable as other members that discuss on this thread so correct me if I am out of place but I can't help but feel shortchanged with investing in these guys.

It seems to be commonly accepted for SDL that news follows volume however in the past few days we have seen a 2cent drop on the back of nothing to do with the company itself. As the current project is in Africa, the Australian resource tax should have had no affect on the mindset of investors, if anything, it should have made SDL more attractive!

Yes the world's markets have taken a recent dive, but it is hard to contemplate what would have driven down the SP by 12% in just a few days.

From a realistic perspective, how long are we looking at for a partner to finally give SDL some backing?

 

[bleach8]

Of course I am nowhere near as knowledgeable as other members that discuss on this thread so correct me if I am out of place but I can't help but feel shortchanged with investing in these guys.

It seems to be commonly accepted for SDL that news follows volume however in the past few days we have seen a 2cent drop on the back of nothing to do with the company itself. As the current project is in Africa, the Australian resource tax should have had no affect on the mindset of investors, if anything, it should have made SDL more attractive!

Yes the world's markets have taken a recent dive, but it is hard to contemplate what would have driven down the SP by 12% in just a few days.

From a realistic perspective, how long are we looking at for a partner to finally give SDL some backing?

This is why i was so frustrated after their QR last Friday. SDL needs working on its marketing. It has hardly mentioned by any major newspapers often.
It has potential for sure. But again, my impression is the management is not in rush at all, and nothing will likely be announced after the Congo drilling in its advanced stage. But it might be a good thing which will lead a better deal. Again, the management is still very firm on the financial deal before end of 2010.
Pls don’t criticize me…all I want is the management to do a bit of marketing or little update announcements to support the share price.
Overall, the super tax is a good thing in the long term….it will increase the cost of all aus based iron ore producers which will support the iron ore spot price as their costs of production is higher.

 

[lioness]

This is why i was so frustrated after their QR last Friday. SDL needs working on its marketing. It has hardly mentioned by any major newspapers often.
It has potential for sure. But again, my impression is the management is not in rush at all, and nothing will likely be announced after the Congo drilling in its advanced stage. But it might be a good thing which will lead a better deal. Again, the management is still very firm on the financial deal before end of 2010.
Pls don’t criticize me…all I want is the management to do a bit of marketing or little update announcements to support the share price.
Overall, the super tax is a good thing in the long term….it will increase the cost of all aus based iron ore producers which will support the iron ore spot price as their costs of production is higher.

They have previously promised a partner by end of June and given nbeba deposit will definitely been proven in the next 2 months with JORC, it may well happen. What I can see is UBS and DB playing with it every day. This will stop once the partner is announced. Likely target 40 cents on this news. Just be patient now.

 

[5haretrader]

What I can see is UBS and DB playing with it every day. This will stop once the partner is announced. Likely target 40 cents on this news. Just be patient now.

Provided the partnership deal comes through I really do hope your figures for the future are in the ballpark of realism. I read your very detailed analysis on the previous page of posts and I must say you know a lot about this company. Kudos to you for a great analysis for where us as shareholders stand.

 

[bleach8]

They have previously promised a partner by end of June and given nbeba deposit will definitely been proven in the next 2 months with JORC, it may well happen. What I can see is UBS and DB playing with it every day. This will stop once the partner is announced. Likely target 40 cents on this news. Just be patient now.

JORC been proven in 2 months? I m sure it will take longer, their new rig wont reach Congo in June, I am hoping for Auguest - October. the securing of stategic partners will dependent on SDL proving up its resources through drilling.
20% of my holding in SDL is under CFD, i just hope it doesnt drop down to 11c which will triger my margin call. i am considering buy another 10k USD of SDL, but even at current low price,m it wont do too much on my overall cost base.

 

[LRG]

14.0 c close today with new low of 13.5 c and a whopping 21.2M traded again.

IMO US markets will bounce a bit tonite??

RIO, BHP etc bounced today.

Hopefully, SDL will claw back to a 15.0 c close tmw.

I agree, marketing and news in national newspapers in non-existet - pretty poor selling on SDL's part.

They need to stick by what they say and get a funding partner announced ASAP!!

Not just let it drag out to late in the year.

 

[springhill]

14.0 c close today with new low of 13.5 c and a whopping 21.2M traded again.

Hi LRG no offence or disrespect intended but with 2.709 billion shares on issue in SDL, 21.2 mill traded is hardly 'whopping' if my maths is right its only 0.777 of a percent.
Being a former holder of SDL i never paid any attention to the volume unless it hit 50 mill + and even then it never meant alot, only that an announcement would be due the next day.
Don't place too much emphasis on volume alone.

My only.
Best of luck

 

[The Muffin Man]

Quite a bit of negativity here. I wonder, is it only SDL shares that everyone here holds? It must be the only share that people here hold, judging by the complete lack of understanding as to why SDL is currently heading slightly south in share price. Check out the performance of the ASX since Monday, and check out the performance of the mining sector since Monday. Therein lies your answer. Check the performance of SDL against the ASX since October 2009, they have been a mirror image. When panic sets in and people sell is when the patient and astute really make their money.

 

[5haretrader]

Muffin Man - The confusion herein lies that Sundance have a highly promising project just sitting and waiting in Africa for a partner to scoop it up. Factors that affect Australian resource companies working in Australia recently like the Super Tax really should have no affect at all for SDL in the coming years. If anything, this should be drawing more interest from Australian investors looking elsewhere for their fix on resource stocks. Ofcourse there will be some correlation to the market but the SP has fallen 12.5% in just a few days and overseas market movement alone would not induce such a drop.

 

[The Muffin Man]

Muffin Man - The confusion herein lies that Sundance have a highly promising project just sitting and waiting in Africa for a partner to scoop it up. Factors that affect Australian resource companies working in Australia recently like the Super Tax really should have no affect at all for SDL in the coming years. If anything, this should be drawing more interest from Australian investors looking elsewhere for their fix on resource stocks. Ofcourse there will be some correlation to the market but the SP has fallen 12.5% in just a few days and overseas market movement alone would not induce such a drop.

SDL is a speculative stock, it will often move large percentages in short period of time. It's also the nature of being worth 15c and then moving 0.5c or 1c, it shows as a big percentage move.

The super tax won't effect SDL, but it's going to effect much of the market. Again, jump onto SDL's page on the ASX website, and look at the graph that tracks SDL's price movement and includes the ASX's movement also. It's an identical pattern since October 2009. SDL will move with the market until news comes from the company, and if you don't expect 5-10% movements in one or two days, maybe investing in a spec stock at 15c wasn't the greatest of moves. If the ASX was to turn around and hit 5000 again, SDL would be back sitting at or above 15c and we would all be sitting here speculating about when it will break 17c support.

Like I said, all this shows is how quickly some people gett worried and/or panic. Nothing about the company has changed since 2 weeks ago, it's just that the ASX and DOW have taken a beat down, and SDL has followed suit. This isn't rocket science and it happens continually with this stock, but some just fail to see the picture.

 

[LRG]

i have been buying this stock since 2007. My average price is 16 cents. I have paid between 44c and 7c for the stock over this period.
lately, one a month when i get some spare cash i have had the unfortunate experience of buying the highs (e.g. 16.5 c last week).
When i have bills to pay I sell a small parcel - this due to my recent bad lack tends to happen on a low.
Why do i keep buying - because the news from SDL is always "we are soon to advise a partner". And, if when this does happen it spikes to 40c I want to be holding as many as I can.
I believe in this stock long term - ALL of my Super chips, my personal chips and my company chips (spare cash) is on SDL - it is just a lot longer wait then i ever expected (based on the SDL news/announcements over the last 18 months).
I currently hold somewher betwwen 1 - 3 M of these babies (not going to disclose eact #) nothing like some but in my world - if this goes I am SET FOR LIFE! If this fizzles I am absolutely STUFFED.
Do the sums on my holding - it hurts when it goes from 16.5c to 14 c in a few days!!!
Long term I hope TALBOT has his 20% in the right place. I know what he achieved with MCCarthur coal. This is another fortesque IMO.
One day I hope this will break through 40c soon, then $1, then $2 then $5 then $10 - and I will sell down as it goes. This is just my HOPE. I am not ramping - could be completely DREAMING.

 

[5haretrader]

I appreciate your explanation and I'm sure many, including myself, would be hoping that SDL is simply following market trends. There's not much that can be done about it from a personal perspective so we just got to toughen up and weather the storm ey

 

[bleach8]

i have been buying this stock since 2007. My average price is 16 cents. I have paid between 44c and 7c for the stock over this period.
lately, one a month when i get some spare cash i have had the unfortunate experience of buying the highs (e.g. 16.5 c last week).
When i have bills to pay I sell a small parcel - this due to my recent bad lack tends to happen on a low.
Why do i keep buying - because the news from SDL is always "we are soon to advise a partner". And, if when this does happen it spikes to 40c I want to be holding as many as I can.
I believe in this stock long term - ALL of my Super chips, my personal chips and my company chips (spare cash) is on SDL - it is just a lot longer wait then i ever expected (based on the SDL news/announcements over the last 18 months).
I currently hold somewher betwwen 1 - 3 M of these babies (not going to disclose eact #) nothing like some but in my world - if this goes I am SET FOR LIFE! If this fizzles I am absolutely STUFFED.
Do the sums on my holding - it hurts when it goes from 16.5c to 14 c in a few days!!!
Long term I hope TALBOT has his 20% in the right place. I know what he achieved with MCCarthur coal. This is another fortesque IMO.
One day I hope this will break through 40c soon, then $1, then $2 then $5 then $10 - and I will sell down as it goes. This is just my HOPE. I am not ramping - could be completely DREAMING.

Hi, I deeply understand how you feel…I believe long-term holders generally have this kind of feeling when we hold it for more than a year…right?

I don't have 1-3m SDL, but I have about 500k-1m. I m in my mid-20s, so it's a lot of money for me as well …(all I have)..

Something good has to happen this year, so just be positive … i never think it will worth 5 or 10 $$...my target is $1. maybe 40c by the end of 2010....

 

[lioness]

i have been buying this stock since 2007. My average price is 16 cents. I have paid between 44c and 7c for the stock over this period.
lately, one a month when i get some spare cash i have had the unfortunate experience of buying the highs (e.g. 16.5 c last week).
When i have bills to pay I sell a small parcel - this due to my recent bad lack tends to happen on a low.
Why do i keep buying - because the news from SDL is always "we are soon to advise a partner". And, if when this does happen it spikes to 40c I want to be holding as many as I can.
I believe in this stock long term - ALL of my Super chips, my personal chips and my company chips (spare cash) is on SDL - it is just a lot longer wait then i ever expected (based on the SDL news/announcements over the last 18 months).
I currently hold somewher betwwen 1 - 3 M of these babies (not going to disclose eact #) nothing like some but in my world - if this goes I am SET FOR LIFE! If this fizzles I am absolutely STUFFED.
Do the sums on my holding - it hurts when it goes from 16.5c to 14 c in a few days!!!
Long term I hope TALBOT has his 20% in the right place. I know what he achieved with MCCarthur coal. This is another fortesque IMO.
One day I hope this will break through 40c soon, then $1, then $2 then $5 then $10 - and I will sell down as it goes. This is just my HOPE. I am not ramping - could be completely DREAMING.

LRG,

I thank you for being honest here as I have also gone the same way you have. I have put everything into this stock(over 1.5 million shares). Pretty much for the same reasons you have. What is really a let down is the amount of time between promises of a partner and the same line being used every qrtly report. Why did they promise it back in October without having a hope of delivering until 1 year later? What a let down.

My only hope left in this stock is the fact DB and UBS have bought in 5% substantial recently. That is a vote of confidence and means things are happening behind the scenes as we speak.

By the way, Muffin man is correct, you cannot hold a speccie like SDL without it expecting to go up and down 15% every month. Day traders are have a party with this stock. All i can say is hang in there LRG. My guess is by June we will see some real SP appreciation.

PS Talbot's holding is an average of 40 cents, so I expect $1 minimum from this otherwise Talbot wouldn't have tied up so much money for a piddly profit in my view.

 

[The Muffin Man]

LRG,

I thank you for being honest here as I have also gone the same way you have. I have put everything into this stock(over 1.5 million shares). Pretty much for the same reasons you have. What is really a let down is the amount of time between promises of a partner and the same line being used every qrtly report. Why did they promise it back in October without having a hope of delivering until 1 year later? What a let down.

My only hope left in this stock is the fact DB and UBS have bought in 5% substantial recently. That is a vote of confidence and means things are happening behind the scenes as we speak.

By the way, Muffin man is correct, you cannot hold a speccie like SDL without it expecting to go up and down 15% every month. Day traders are have a party with this stock. All i can say is hang in there LRG. My guess is by June we will see some real SP appreciation.

PS Talbot's holding is an average of 40 cents, so I expect $1 minimum from this otherwise Talbot wouldn't have tied up so much money for a piddly profit in my view.

Apart from being some of the riskiest investment strategies I've seen in a very long time (lioness and LRG), let me have a go at explaining for you why I think there have been hold ups with project financing;

In the middle of 2009, the company thought they would be able to secure the strategic partners with the level of DSO resources they had JORC defined at the time. I think they gambled, and it didn’t pay off. If you go through all of the recent CAPEX and price modelling, you will see they use a figure off 300mt+ DSO in their calculations. They don’t currently show that amount of DSO in their resource definitions. Before a company signs up to the project, they are going to want to know for almost certain, that 300mt+ of DSO is actually present in the SDL tenements. This level of DSO is crucial to the project’s success, as it’s the DSO that’s going to pay back the CAPEX quickly. This is why, in the middle of 2009 and later on that year, the company decided to enter into the next capital raising, the funds of which would be used to develop Nabeba, with the shallow drilling searching specifically for more DSO. Nabeba was never initially in the development plan for Mbalam, SDL thought they had enough DSO there to get the project up and running, and they were probably right in this assessment pre-GFC. Post-GFC, this changed, and a possible partner would want to see a quicker CAPEX payback period as it becomes a much less risky investment.

In short - SDL thought the resources at Mbalam would be enough to get the operation off the ground, and in mid 2009 they went to look for partners. After the GFC crisis, the possible partners would have wanted to see more DSO and a quicker CAPEX payback period than what SDL currently had JORC defined. SDL then went through another capital raising so they could shallow drill Nabeba and bring to account further DSO resources, and bring what they have JORC defined in line with their financial modelling.

That's my interpretations reading between the lines.

 

[lioness]

Apart from being some of the riskiest investment strategies I've seen in a very long time (lioness and LRG), let me have a go at explaining for you why I think there have been hold ups with project financing;

In the middle of 2009, the company thought they would be able to secure the strategic partners with the level of DSO resources they had JORC defined at the time. I think they gambled, and it didn’t pay off. If you go through all of the recent CAPEX and price modelling, you will see they use a figure off 300mt+ DSO in their calculations. They don’t currently show that amount of DSO in their resource definitions. Before a company signs up to the project, they are going to want to know for almost certain, that 300mt+ of DSO is actually present in the SDL tenements. This level of DSO is crucial to the project’s success, as it’s the DSO that’s going to pay back the CAPEX quickly. This is why, in the middle of 2009 and later on that year, the company decided to enter into the next capital raising, the funds of which would be used to develop Nabeba, with the shallow drilling searching specifically for more DSO. Nabeba was never initially in the development plan for Mbalam, SDL thought they had enough DSO there to get the project up and running, and they were probably right in this assessment pre-GFC. Post-GFC, this changed, and a possible partner would want to see a quicker CAPEX payback period as it becomes a much less risky investment.

In short - SDL thought the resources at Mbalam would be enough to get the operation off the ground, and in mid 2009 they went to look for partners. After the GFC crisis, the possible partners would have wanted to see more DSO and a quicker CAPEX payback period than what SDL currently had JORC defined. SDL then went through another capital raising so they could shallow drill Nabeba and bring to account further DSO resources, and bring what they have JORC defined in line with their financial modelling.

That's my interpretations reading between the lines.

That is very true muffin man and reckon you are spot on here. Nbeba is only 2 months away now from defining JORC is it not?? So really a partner is waiting for August at the latest. Trouble is if the market collapses now, I can see SDL going back to 8 cents.

 

[The Muffin Man]

I don't think a maiden JORC resource from Nabeba will be too far away. SDL is mainly only drilling shallow holes, because all they are wanting to find at this point is DSO. The company just needs to get the DSO figures up to the amounts spoken of in the investor presentations then they should be in a greatly enhanced position to negotiate with potential partners. The Nabeba deposit is much like the Mbalam deposit in composition, so SDL will have a lot of knowledge up their sleeve regarding the best way to attack the drilling and get the DSO results quickly. If SDL posts a maiden resource of say 150mt+ of DSO at Nabeba, and is then still unable to close out partner negotiations by early 2011 at the latest, then I would start to become concerned.

 

[lioness]

I don't think a maiden JORC resource from Nabeba will be too far away. SDL is mainly only drilling shallow holes, because all they are wanting to find at this point is DSO. The company just needs to get the DSO figures up to the amounts spoken of in the investor presentations then they should be in a greatly enhanced position to negotiate with potential partners. The Nabeba deposit is much like the Mbalam deposit in composition, so SDL will have a lot of knowledge up their sleeve regarding the best way to attack the drilling and get the DSO results quickly. If SDL posts a maiden resource of say 150mt+ of DSO at Nabeba, and is then still unable to close out partner negotiations by early 2011 at the latest, then I would start to become concerned.

Muffin man, if SDL cannot secure a partner by 2010 end, I will be selling for sure. They have had over 1.5 years and with DB and UBS in now as substant. holders, I reckon that was the tick to say things are actually happening behind the scenes and not just bulldust from the CEO. This will be above 20 cents by end of June. Just watch.

 

[Zodiac]

Gabon is reviewing its Chinese connection to develop Belinga? Why? Because of the lack of desire by the Chinese, after three years, to go further and develop it. Chinese may want to take it off the market for now but do not seem like going to the next step.

In jumps VALE who are negotiating with Gabon to take it off the Chinese. Now we have one less significant player interested in SDL. The future partnership list may be getting less and less and so the stagnant share price.

ZODIAC