SDL - Sundance Resources

[LRG]

When does your $4.55 SP prediction fall on the time line of now 2010 to 2014?

approx year and QTR please.

I am in the same sphere from 15 cents to $10 sometime in the future - like FMG.

i thought it would be up to $1 upon funding annonc. which is still TBA april??

But i like most have been waiting for this milestone for 18+ mnths now.

Anyway I keep buying in the belief it will be a success in the future when ??? one day.

 

[CarbonSteel]

When does your $4.55 SP prediction fall on the time line of now 2010 to 2014?

approx year and QTR please.

I am in the same sphere from 15 cents to $10 sometime in the future - like FMG.

i thought it would be up to $1 upon funding annonc. which is still TBA april??

But i like most have been waiting for this milestone for 18+ mnths now.

Anyway I keep buying in the belief it will be a success in the future when ??? one day.

I am obviously not zmalecki but I would like to offer my opinion. It is an opinion only and is not based on any published (by SDL) facts.

We will be waiting beyond June 2010 for financing and offtake parnerships to be announced. The reasons?

First, it is a lot of money, and the timeline to build a port and 450 km of railroad (to export product just 3 years from now) seems to me to be too optimistic.
Second, there are probably a lot of options for SDL to choose from. DB will find and offer these prospects, but ultimately, SDL must look into their crystal ball and agonise over which is the best long term deal.
Third, in spite of target prices which have been offered, reality remains ruler.
What I mean by this is that we are invested in a potentially politically unstable country. It is not exactly Australia and does not have any guarantees. We are blessed with topline management and I hope they can overcome these difficulties, but the facts remain.
Fourth, the Chinese will play it very coyly, as they always do, thinking (or hoping) that they can make lowball offers because SDL is currently in a hard place. They do not hold all the cards and I'm sure gamesmanship will be foremost in the minds of the Chinese. However, against this arguement is the amount of egg they have on their faces after trying to dictate to the Big Three. Maybe they will eventually remember the outcome of that fruitless exercise.

 

[Happy]

Facts are:
...

Facts also are that chart is locked in a band since October 2009, and now if price doesn't break up with $0.165 as good trigger price to buy, might also come back to the bottom of the band to trip buy trigger around $0.12 - $0.11


(Almost win - win situation )

 

[bleach8]

Facts also are that chart is locked in a band since October 2009, and now if price doesn't break up with $0.165 as good trigger price to buy, might also come back to the bottom of the band to trip buy trigger around $0.12 - $0.11


(Almost win - win situation )

dude..i know you are good at technical analys, but SDL is not widely trade as BHP, it is news driven ....what if they announce the finance deal ...or upgrade their resourse?

btw, UBS and DB have been buying SDL for the last 4-5 months. .... they are controling the price so they can get the shares at the price they wanted ...

so my point is ur chart reading technic just doesnt suit shares like SDL ...

 

[jonojpsg]

Agree that SDL will move more on news rather than technicals.

Also agreed that SP tends to move before news which we may be seeing today? Although maybe not too - volume is relatively high and moved up a cent or so, we'll see how it trades tomorrow hey.

Worth noting too that the buy/sell balance has shifted markedly from about 3:4 to 5:3

 

[bleach8]

Agree that SDL will move more on news rather than technicals.

Also agreed that SP tends to move before news which we may be seeing today? Although maybe not too - volume is relatively high and moved up a cent or so, we'll see how it trades tomorrow hey.

Worth noting too that the buy/sell balance has shifted markedly from about 3:4 to 5:3

hope so...i had a order at 15.5c for the entire day and didnt get them....so i decided to by them at 16c ...looking at the volume today , i dont want to miss something good

 

[Pythagerous]

Drilling Results and Investor Presentation released this morning. Explains the high volume traded last week.

 

[bleach8]

Drilling Results and Investor Presentation released this morning. Explains the high volume traded last week.

Cant they just get the Chinese on board? so everyone will be happy ..with Chinese $$ and influences ..SDL can really become a regional producer...and it will be win-win situation....

although you can argue that ...the management wants more value for long term...but seriously...with Chinese supports , SDL can become much bigger and much faster...maybe its not a bad thing to give them some good incentives and wishing the Chinese will bring SDL more opportunities.

 

[bleach8]

Also, the reason I see that SDL goes on a road show to Europe and NA, is that the management wants to debt finance the whole (or majority) of the project. Otherwise, they would already in the negotiation table with the Chinese.

Another point to support this argument is that SDL took the BLY broker report in 2009 off their website. In that report, BLY argued that SDL cannot get the project going without a significant partner by selling big part of the project. (like GBG 50% to Ansteel).

By taking that off, seems to suggest that the management don’t want to give the impression to the potential investors that the project needs significant dilution.

 

[Pythagerous]

Now I am going to embarass myself here, by taking an unorthodox approach to estimating the amount of tonnage that may be at the Nabeba deposit.

Now before I start you probably should heavily discount the fact that I failed my HSC and once lost a red peg from battleship up my nose.


Ok, Firstly, lets make some assumptions.

The surface area of Nabeba's main deposit of high grade resouce appears to be about 1000m x 750m

Looking at drilling results, the average depth could range anywhere from 50m to 100m+

Dr Google informs me that Iron Ore weighs aproximately 4MT - 5MT per cubic metre.

So recapping on our assumptions:

Surface Area = 1000m x 750m
Depth = 50m to 100m+
Weight = 4MT per Cubic Meter

Now, using a depth of 50m, would mean that area has a volume of 37,500,000 Cubic Meters (1000 x 750 x 50). If we then times this by 4 (4MT per Cubic Meter) it gives us a total of 150MT.

If we use the same formula based on a depth of 100m it gives us a figure of 300MT.

In regards to the grade of the iron ore, if you look at the results from the surface area I used, it ranges between 61.4%FE and 65.3%FE.

Now although I haven't allowed for things such as faults throughout the resource, I have been conservative in my estimation of the surface area, so hopefully the two cancel each other out.

 

[jonojpsg]

Agreed Pyth, with the results they're getting it looks like the target of 100-250MT is very achievable

Another thing I was thinking about the benefits of spending more prior to stitching up partners/financing etc. is that the deal they have with the Cam govt is that the govt can take up their 15% stake by covering all the spend (exploration and development) up to that point. So the more they spend, the more the govt will cough up for their stake, which in reality is almost a given that they will take up their stake.

 

[lioness]

Good volume again today, closed on its high. 16 cents now support, another announcement will push it to 20.

Looks like breakout to me on the chart. Anyone else care to comment.

 

[talktome]

Good volume again today, closed on its high. 16 cents now support, another announcement will push it to 20.

Looks like breakout to me on the chart. Anyone else care to comment.

Make that a close of $0.17!

It's good to see some strength back in SDL. I'd say 15.5c or so is the new low.

Great day,

talktome

 

[jonojpsg]

Definitely looking up, today was pretty steady, average price of 16.5 and a solid line built at 16c, although I have seen a line like that taken out in one trade with SDL so I won't take anything for granted

Another thought I had last night was about Nabeba - if they find 100MT which they pretty much have, with the margins they are talking, ie around $50/t, that makes Nabeba alone worth an extra $5bn to SDL. Surely when you're talking these sorts of numbers the MC of $480m looks pretty undervalued?

Sure they still have to finance the thing, but regardless of whether they manage to debt fund it or sell off half to the Chinese for $1.5bn like Rio did, the next two-three years is going to make this a real bonus for my trip to Europe in 2013

 

[CarbonSteel]

I notice that QR's are released on Thursdays at the end of the month recently.
I wonder if this month will be the same and if so, will there be any new announcements?

What is the protocol with this issue? Is SDL obliged to release news (for example, announcement of a financier/off-take partner) as it comes to hand, or are they allowed to keep this revelation from the market until the QR is released?

Quite possibly the SP movement today will indicate if there is to be a price sensitive release tomorrow (or when the QR is actually released). But I don't think I'll hold my breath for anything which will forever change the destiny of SDL. or ?

 

[Miner]

I notice that QR's are released on Thursdays at the end of the month recently.
I wonder if this month will be the same and if so, will there be any new announcements?

What is the protocol with this issue? Is SDL obliged to release news (for example, announcement of a financier/off-take partner) as it comes to hand, or are they allowed to keep this revelation from the market until the QR is released?

Quite possibly the SP movement today will indicate if there is to be a price sensitive release tomorrow (or when the QR is actually released). But I don't think I'll hold my breath for anything which will forever change the destiny of SDL. or ?

Considering DOW movement last night the market including SDL is to be driven by US market unless there is something very positive on SDL to show uptrend.

Let us hope some thing for the better

 

[lioness]

Miner, SDL has gone nowhere but the Dow has gone up 3K points. Other iron ore stocks have doubled, so SDL is news driven more than the markets IMO.

A few strong announcements will see this breakout soon.

 

[bleach8]

Miner, SDL has gone nowhere but the Dow has gone up 3K points. Other iron ore stocks have doubled, so SDL is news driven more than the markets IMO.

A few strong announcements will see this breakout soon.

I don’t think there will be any major ground breaking news from the QR due. Look at the price is going to drop back to 15c again. I am a bit frustrated. As their timeline is to finalized everything before end of the year, now it is only 8 months to go, and we shareholders have not received any clear indication of what is actually going on with the D bank discussion with potential partners, or is there actually any powerful partners who are interested.

Getting a bit annoying by the CEO’s never changed comment of ‘ the project attract huge interests and big potential ….’. update the shareholders, pls !!!
P.S. I am holding a large amount (relatively) of SDL

 

[CarbonSteel]

Wow! Wasn't that an absolutely incredible QR! More of the same excremement that we have been hearing for the last 18 months. No wonder the price hit 15.5. The avoidance of project financing and offtake progress reports is not exactly ..... heartening. No surprise tho' folks, just wait till the end of 2010. Then build a 450 km railroad and Chinamax deep water port and begin exporting by 2013. I somehow do not think this is credible, nor tempting for prospective investors.
I think now that if this project does happen at all, we are now looking at 2015 for first production. Lets all hang in there and believe the hype, it will be much better for the bank accounts of these directors. They can be offered many more billions of options from which to profit at our expense.

Long term holder seriously thinking about quitting for more profitable (and more honest) pastures.

 

[bleach8]

We were told d bank would recommend sdl the partners in march/april... And now we r told the project just received more interests after the congo driling result 2 weeks ago!

Sure we r all bit disappointed...