SDL - Sundance Resources

[mayk]

Well, in next rally I will sell SDL because it is obviously heading for .1. I can double my shares if I sell now ($.2) and rebuy them at ($.1).

I don't know why I didn't think of that earlier . I guess it must be one of the secrets, which some wise guy must have written in some good book of investing. Oh well live and learn. Worst part is I have seen its decline from glorious .8 to what it is today from the sideline.


Today will be a blood bath for this stock.

I vote this stock to be DOG of the YEAR ( quarter?).

 

[Vaughan]

I would be careful doing that

Personally I would not, just be aware of the risk, i.e. you sell, and price jumps back to 25-30.

All the best with your plan though if you decide to go for it

 

[tucks]

This stock continues to cause pain to all and though we can only really speculate as to the reasons why it would be nice to have some information from the company. This lack of news/announcements on the recent s/p plummet is a massive concern and begs the question of management to fulfill its duty to the shareholder....

I only like being taken for a ride on the back of a Harley........

 

[rogue_investor]

As pointed out earlier in this thread the stock is a victim of being part of the ASX200. Quite cleary, there's a highly liquid broker out there running an algo on the stock that trades at volumes of around 1700 shares a throw. If you can figure out the calculation (be it Index or Stock futures or Options) you might have a show to beat it. Liquidity has gathered too much interest in the market now so as a result the average punter is stuffed.

 

[LRG]

This stock is a basket case at the moment. It just keeps heading south. There has been absolutely no announcement from SDL saying what is going on.

Talbott held 20% when it was 50c + so he has lost 10's of millions - why isn't he saying anything?

Is this a total disaster heading to zero???

 

[Vaughan]

You haven't lost anything until you sell.

When the resource if finally proven up does anyone really think it wont skyrocket??? Talbott wont be looking to sell any time soon

Do they have Fe, almost certainly, going to a hell of a lot of trouble with infastructure plans etc if they don't. More of a question as to how much...

Even with a their pessimistic estimates the price will not stay around such low prices

Biggest risk in my opinion is politics and the price of iron in 5 years time

For all those people who bought in at around 50 cents, including me, the likelihood of not at least getting you money back in 12 months is slim. So unless you need that money for something else today I wouldn't get too stressed.

DYOR though of course

 

[Vaughan]

Oh yeah, Warren Buffets golden rule "Don't loose capital"

Selling now would be blatantly breaking that rule, I don't know about anyone else but I don't want to get Warren mad...

 

[speculator101]

Hi fellow investors.
Bit of bad news, last night JBwere changed thier rec for SDL. to hold, and from thier initial price target of .70 a few months ago, (.50 1 month ago) its down to .25 mmm....
Oh, also, they believe that it is going to be 'quite' hard for a single non producing company to get the money (in this market of fear and ZERO liquidity) needed to really get this project off the ground.
IMHO.... sadly

 

[Lucky_Country]

The chinese may help out !
They hate RIO and BHP more players the better in their eyes.
But yeh maybe hard but its a good project that many want to succeed.

 

[oldblue]

I've been having a look at SDL.

Am I correct in assuming that they need to build the infrastructure, ie a rail line and a port, if they are to exploit this hematite resource in Africa?

 

[Vaughan]

That is correct

But my understanding is that the infrastructure is not going to be fully funded by them, there are some other project in the region which may share this cost.

 

[oldblue]

That is correct

But my understanding is that the infrastructure is not going to be fully funded by them, there are some other project in the region which may share this cost.

Thanks, Vaughan, that's interesting.
Does anyone have any more information on this? Particularly, who the other party is and whether there is any contractual arrangement.

 

[Vaughan]

There is plenty of information on their website, I'm sure if you sift through that you can find what you are looking for

 

[Goldmann]

I've had enough of this one... will sell out today hopefully around peak, and when the US releases so more bad news - will buy into SDL when its down around .12 or .13...

 

[tezz]

Up 20% today, getting plenty of support now, about 3 mil buys went through at 4.10pm. We might see .25 next week. I don't believe what brokers say, Ive been following SDL for over a year now, got in at 8.8 cents, looking much more positive now with the railway and port plans. Heavily backed in Europe.

 

[frotman]

Mayk, Vaughan & others,

I had to sell out for the same reasons as others.
Vaughan, sometimes you gotta do what you gotta do,
even if Warren Buf sends a please explain note.
The waiting and paying interest can get to breaking point.
Since selling, I have still been watching SDL.

Form 603-Notice of Initial substantial holder today from Concord Capital Ltd.

94.6 million shares purchased. They are a Pitt St. outfit from Sydney.
Director Garry Duncan.
Could this be the entity that has been purchasing in parcels
of about 1,700 for others???
They state, on the form, that they nor any affiliates own these
shares for any of their own accounts, rather the shares (declared on the form) are owned by accounts under management
by Concord Capital.

On the notice are the following registered holders of securities:
National Custodian Services (Melbourne)
Cogent Nominees (Royal Exchange NSW)
Bond Street Custodian Ltd (Bond St. Sydney)
JP Morgan Chase Ltd. (George St. Sydney)

Together they have bought 94,605,817 shares between
16th Jan 2008 until 18th March 2008.

What do you think will be the time lag between purchasing and
some kind of action?
Are the deals already in place or do the deals start now?
Methinks something will happen but it will need lots of financial backing
in an iffy environment so timing is a hard one to figure out.

Perhaps someone on this forum can throw some light on this?
My intention was to buy back in at around 8 to 10 cents.
I think Tezz bought in at the right price.

 

[Goldmann]

Anyway - all I said was I am glad I sold out yesterday at .205 and that I will get back aboard the ___________ in a while when they are closer to finalising the details to get the stuff out of the ground...

Good luck to all holders - might still get back on the SDL horse if it gets closer to the .10....

 

[Trader52]

I had a chat to my broker on this one. He is still positive due to the people involved and those that hold stock. He thinks it will go, but it might take awhile to get rolling. A lot more activity lately, but I don't know if that means something is going to break soon or not. I was going to top up at .17, but the SP has now crept over .2! Given all the interest with Iron Ore it may still fly.

 

[mayk]

I am attaching a link to SDL chart,
http://finance.google.com/finance?q=ASX:SDL

It shows promise, a higher high and lower low ( I know it is too early to say but hey!) is been established. I will now wait for this uptrend to be varified over a period of time. I guess the previous low values of .17 were because of accumulation. Recently a new main share holder has also been announced, which clarifies some aspect of the share price movements.

Remember, this project will start delivering iron ore from 2011, two more years to go...

Rough stats for this project:

Assumed: 750 Mt, 60+ iron ore grade.
Total capex estimate $US: 3.7B (including building a port and a rail network)
Total rough value of the underground Iron ore: 750M * $100= $75B.
Operating cost ( from their report, per ton) : $25 * 750M = $18.75B.

Net worth = $56.25B.
Total shares = 1.87B,
Net worth per share = $30 per share (over a period of 20 years...)

Now , here I have assumed 100 price of iron ore per ton , which is realistic , given the current prices are negotiated at around $140. So give and take in two years time, a stable price of 100 is a fair value. Even half of that price ( as used in SDL report) values the share at $15.


Also important to note:
The project will produce 25Mt per annum, so it will take around 20 years to take out all this iron from ground. The price of iron ore and operating cost might change in future and this might alter the outcome.

Correct me if I have stated anything wrong. The facts are taken from this report
http://www.sundanceresources.com.au... pfs update mbalam iron ore project final.pdf

 

[sidswingerhead]

Possible breakout today on good volume...............................................................................................................