SDL - Sundance Resources

[LRG]

I've done my dough on this one too.

Bought at around 46 cents.

It is 50% down - that is a lot.

Will leave share certificate in bottom draw and hope in a few years all the hype has been worth it.

It is real crystal ball stuff.

Seems like money should be in B&B NAB LEI etc now - blue chips that are down but still making excellent profits year in year out.

 

[Miner]

Condolence Message to whom it may concern
(Including me having bought at 40 cents SDL and at 23 cents )

SDL has plummetted at 21 cents just now. I thought it will never happen but now the lowest value has triggered when every one is making money.
That could be sure sign of trouble in Cameroon and hopefully not repeat of ABS saga.

 

[LRG]

This stock is either ridiculously cheap or it is heading for the scrap heap.

Given the involvement of the ex MCC owner I suspect he knows what he is doing and it is cheap.

Having said that I haven't any more funds to plough into it to reduce my average entry price.

It is going to take a long time to get back to 45 cents, never lone into the $'s.

No use dumping it - just wait to 2011/12 and hope!!!

 

[mayk]

I bought it at its high of 80c Now I have lost so much of my value that losing more by selling it does not make sense to me. Not to mention I have lost a lot on GBG as well. These are the two " Gems " in my collection of worse stocks ever.

Anyhoo I will start buying it when it will reachat 10-15 cents. It will be rock bottom for this stock. Then My average price will be around 30c .


I will personally go to cameroon and dig and sell my portion of iron ore if I have to .

 

[frotman]

Hello,
This is my 1st post on this Forum.
I have traded SDL all last year but got caught at the top.
So, you are not alone. Huge, massive loss for me too.
Still holding with very little hope.
The hurdles for SDL at present, in this environment do not give me much
to cling to except for 1 big thing. Someone may want what's in the ground.
The tendancy for shorting at present is one of the hurdles for sp.
Margin calls and automatic selling are probably playing there part.
Sovereign risk could be another.??
Infrastructure has been discussed above.

I don't know the afternoon trading range yet but
saw a possibility of a bounce from about 20.5c.
If I am wrong I suspect that SDL may be heading for 8 to 9c
and lurk around there until they can set themselves up.
This may take a couple of years unless, as I said above, another
company moves in eagerly wanting the stuff in the ground.
frotman

 

[mayk]

Thanks for letting me know I am not alone. Although now I am detached from this stock, if it gets down to 8-9 cents I will top up heaviley as will other people .

I was inclined to buy a lot of this stock when it showed strong recovery from 23.5 cents a few weeks back, but then better sense prevailed and I thought it will surely go down as it has nothing to report unlike other stocks ( like ADY , GBG) for the whole 1 year! And as you might know things quickly change in this business.


I am still a believer and hopeful, some day my investment in SDL will bear fruit.

On a side note it will be a good time for some other iron ore company to buy sdl for pennies. CFE has cashed up from its sale of its iron ore. Lets hope it looks in sdl direction . Well BHP should also consider this to be a good opportunity.

 

[nikki]

Hi all, have been out of SDL for a while as some of you might know so please take my comments as someone who does not hold! Having said that i have a number of friends who are still holding from 0.8.

ASX200 listing has allowed any man and his dog to short the stock. . . . . I trade ADY a bit and the CEO suggested that perhaps some overseas hedge funds were playing with that stock. I suspect that this is even more the case with SDL. I have never seen such volumes on the buy and sell side within such small margins. i guess if you are selling 2 million at 0.05 profit that would be huge. I also suspect the same traders are buying and selling to themselves using different accounts which give them trade-off for other stuff - e.g. make a loss on this account to offset tax but in that process i can re-buy the stock using another account, etc. etc. etc. I say this because no one has lodged statements re owning significant amounts and yet so many million shares have been traded!!!!

The best thing for this stock is to get kicked out of the ASX200 at which point it will shoot back up when the really big boys stop playing with it. In the meantime i would not be surprised if it breaks 0.22 support once again and perhaps test 0.2. I for one would buy every share below 0.2 so i am sure long term investors would also jump in

It is easy to see this price movement in SDL and assume it is an ABS/MFS etc etc but i suspect that the fundamentals have not changed a bit and has actually got better in the past six months.

Good luck to you all and I am sorry for anyone who has felt anxious holding this stock and has watched it do funny things. I have certainly lost a lot of sleep over the crappy trading behavior i have seen in SDL.

 

[BigJohnny]

Hi Nikki,

I believe number of shares outstanding approx. 1.723 billion is reason why there is so much liquidty on the offer side of the market. Having so much shares with long-term holders, always allow hedge funds to secure borrowed stock to short sell. Though i do not believe hedge funds objective in this stock is sell it to zero. Find that most big insto participation in this stock has been for index abritrage being ASX200 index. So if the ASX200 is moving lower compared to the previous day, then you can expect more sell side pressure from the active index tracking guys.

Compare against peers like UMC, TLM, SPH, GRR, GBG, AGO, CFE. Sundance is certainly the most expensive stock by market cap given its current position in the "explorer to producer" cycle and project dynamics (distance to port & markets, expected capital spending), though it has an agressive 2008 plan. I do currently own this stock, but would be interested when its market cap closer to GIR, GWR

Cheers
BJ

 

[Goldmann]

echo the comments made previously - and its good to know that I am not the only one who jumped aboard the SDL train at the wrong time... my tranche of shares were bought at 42 - and I think it if halves that (i.e. hits .21 again) - I will have no option but to try and lower my average price (even though I know this one wont bear fruit for a while)...

still - its less of a dog stock for me than VRE - at least my other little gold diggers are on the up and up (DIO, LGL and AND)....

good luck to all us still believing in the upside of SDL...

 

[Zodiac]

Virgin. Why all the doom and gloom fellow SDLs. There has to be a reason some "new entries" are predicting 8c. Maybe they know the short selling game and talking down the stock. Why not. SDL has a hugh share base, no announcements due in the short term and this is a chance for the fat boys to get fatter. Why does it seem historically that SDL's growth and demise as been quite staged over a number of years? Are large Hedge funds involved? Interesting to note that the ex-chairman of SDL heads up a large hedge fund "Fortitude Capital". Why has not the board tried to settle investor concerns? It may be that the share price is now at a nice entry point for more "appropriate investors" to come on board before any big announcements. I would love to know who is buying all this SDL stock. If any one has the time and means it would be interesting to see if there has been a major increase in African ( Cameroon ) French names on the share registry. With Cameroon's current secuirty problems I can only imagine that as in most 3rd world countries "prices are not always prices", and if SDL are at the stage of cementing government support prior to annoucements I am sure there will be many officials and the local cheifs that would love to be securing shares at a reasonable value. This project is to big for Cameroon to let go, their credibility is at stake and their govt needs jobs for its people. Don't believe all we hear and keep to the fundamentals. Spec company with a hugh upside based on excellent assumptions headed by a smart board who know what they "have" to do to get the job done.

Zodiac

 

[Vaughan]

I don't think its as dire as people are making out. Its just a rough patch, if you can afford to stick around a little longer I believe the rewards will be plentiful.

A great time to average down...

But this is just my opinion and obviously there are risks

 

[Goldmann]

I'm not so sure.. this one is really starting to annoy me...

Everything else in my portfolio is up today... everything... except SDL... if it cant make any ground today, then no wonder it drops 3% everytime the US market goes down... im thinking a real low period ahead... with no REAL upside for quite a while... Average down I reckon, and as many wise men have said - stick it in the bottom draw for a while.

 

[jman2007]

Quote:

By Hsu Chuang Khoo of Reuters

LONDON--Australian exploration firm Cape Lambert Iron plc plans to invest about $170 million (US$158M) in an African iron ore asset by June, chief executive Tony Sage told Reuters.

The London-listed firm also plans to return about $100 million to shareholders following the sale of its Western Australia-based Cape Lambert Iron ore project to Chinese government construction firm China Metallurgical Group Corp, a sale that will raise $400 million.

"We've signed the confidentiality documents and done the due diligence on the Africa Project", said Mr Sage, who was speaking by telephone from Australia.

End Quote.

This very "speculative" connection has been mentioned on the CFE thread recently, could there be a connection here? Tbh, I don't know, I'm certainly not trying to throw a cat amongst the pigeons here, or raise people's expectations but I'm merely trying to provoke some discussion and gauge SDL investors opinions.

Thanks
jman
Disclaimer: I hold CFE, dnh SDL

 

[Zodiac]

Well done JMAN. Great news to list as it helps us open our eyes to the bigger picture. Of interest is that prior to being chairman of Cape Lambert Iron Ore, Ian Burston was the MD of Portman Ltd under the Chairmanship of our own George Jones. Inetersting synergies.

Zodiac

 

[Justthinkin]

I remember the days when sex was something you had with an attractive partner. What happens? Someone discovered mining iron ore and the rest is history including my sex life!!! SDL has made its contribution to that issue.

I liked SDL because it seemed to be moving forward slowly but surely. I fortuneately don't own the stock now as quite frankly I can't see a clear direction... the market is truly hideous and unless you have cash flows, watch out!!!

For want of a discussion point, I can't help but notice:
(a) of it's total 3.2B capex, 1.4B is associated with rail infrastrucutre;
(b) it has a neigbour (I'd be guessing say 200km south west) in CMEC at it's Belinga Iron Ore Project to which it has publicly committed $3B;
(c) Of CMEC's expenditure is circa 500km of rail infrastructure;
(d) Of SDL's directors is a gent by the name of Dr John Saunders. I know nothing about him other than in his resume he's previously worked with CMEC;
(e) Talbot is not a complete goose but maybe at the moment a little distracted. He has invested heavily in SDL and I suspect he might have done some homework. No guarantees, just a positive hint.

Wouldn't it be nice if ploitically and economically CMEC and SDL could co-ordinate thier projects? Both could defray what is an overwhelming capex in the scheme of things. The trick is, who will blink first.

 

[Miner]

I remember the days when sex was something you had with an attractive partner. What happens? Someone discovered

For want of a discussion point, I can't help but notice:
(a) of it's total 3.2B capex, 1.4B is associated with rail infrastrucutre;
(b) it has a neigbour (I'd be guessing say 200km south west) in CMEC at it's Belinga Iron Ore Project to which it has publicly committed $3B;
(c) Of CMEC's expenditure is circa 500km of rail infrastructure;
(d) Of SDL's directors is a gent by the name of Dr John Saunders. I know nothing about him other than in his resume he's previously worked with CMEC;
(e) Talbot is not a complete goose but maybe at the moment a little distracted. He has invested heavily in SDL and I suspect he might have done some homework. No guarantees, just a positive hint..

I think Talbot went to the same school where Eddie (ABS) went.
So it is only a matter of facts he would follow the suit and make the shareholders in real dole drum. I do hold SDL but with 19 cents less than my purchase price do not have enough courage to build up or sale them.

Not all directors are smart and there are few like Michael K, Talbot, Eddie - who just God's own syndicated lotto to invest and ruin our money as well

 

[frotman]

Hi Zodiac & others,

You asked "Why all the doom and gloom ?"

Well for one I feel manipulated and for 2nds I have money in a stock that has fallen for too long. I share Goldman's sentiments.


Maybe someone can explain what is going on.
Yesterday there were buys @ $1,740 and $1,745.
I counted over 100 of them between 0.215 and 0.22.

Today over 5 million buy orders at 0.20.
The going price for the day seemed to be 0.205
then, just before 4pm, a massive bundle was bought at 0.21.
Some mystery buyer.

In my last post I mentioned the slim chance of a bounce around 0.205.
Today it hit 0.20. Closed 0.205.
It very nearly closed at the 'mystery buyer's' price of 21 c.

Justthinkin makes a valid point "unless you have cash flows, watch out.."
By the way, shorting stocks is NOT my thing. I don't do it.
Good luck to all.

 

[frotman]

The line:
Yesterday there were buys @ $1,740 and $1,745.
I counted over 100 of them between 0.215 and 0.22.

Should read:
There were buy parcels 1,740 & 1,745
I counted over 100 of them between $0.215 and $0.22.

 

[Justthinkin]

I must say that I watched the traffic today and to an extent was encouraged that 0.20 held firm. At times I was sure it was to be broken and $0.10 was the next stop.

My SDL buy order finger is twitchy but I cannot find a trigger for swing... SDL is just an unloved child...it's a child and somebody loves it.

Small parcels are infuriating...they are every where and I still can't understand the rationale although I'm suspicious there about un-settling markets or mis-directing technical analysts/chartists.

 

[mayk]

A technical chart. Nothing fancy, the stock is in a downward trend and technically it does not make sense to buy this stock ( fundamentally it is a different story). It has been in this downtrend since its merger talks with GBG failed. GBG has started its upward trend, but this stock is still haunted by shorting punters.

It is quite a famous stock. Many brokers have put a $.7-1 price range till the end of year, on this stock ( I think including JP Morgan or goldman sachas).