SDL - Sundance Resources

[spottygoose]

All good kid. Very good announcement it is just a shame the market is still a bit spooked with the specs. Still a way to go on this one but based on yesterday's announcement it should soon start to move back to fairer value. HOpefully, a few broker updates are around the corner and as drilling has proceeded there should be no reason for them not to still be targeting their calls of 70c and $1.

 

[spottygoose]

Thanks to Gasman9 for this:

Goldman Sachs gave Sundance Resc a BIG tick this morning, reiterated BUY recommendation following yesterday's 2Q Production Report.

"No change to positive view."

12 month price target $0.70

 

[Goldmann]

I hate this stock... every day i look to it with a slight hope of a rebound... but nothing... thinking of putting a bullet in it...

 

[tronic72]

Thanks to Gasman9 for this:

Goldman Sachs gave Sundance Resc a BIG tick this morning, reiterated BUY recommendation following yesterday's 2Q Production Report.

"No change to positive view."

12 month price target $0.70

I think it's important to remember that no matter what the recommendation, it's still speculative and it's share price pretty much rides on the back of the big guys such as BHP, RIO etc. Being spec means there's even less rhyme or reason for it's current price.

If you are long term on SDL just buy it and turn off your PC otherwise you'll get an Ulcer.

 

[LRG]

It seemed to have a lot better day today with volume of 31 Mill and up 3.5 cents to 29 cents. Lets hope it will not need to test the lows again of the last 2 weeks.

We need to wait for more news as it will take years for this coy to go into production. I agree just hold and check the price every 6 months or so.

I suspect it will be volatile as it is highly speculative even given the high market cap and the key players who are share holders.

 

[Shane]

Hi guys, First time to site. Thought you'd all be interested in this
For all of you in Australia tonight on sky business news, FOXTEL Ch 602 between 7-8PM AEDT they will be answering a question I asked them last week by email on SDL.

Hi,
I would like to know the thoughts of analysts on Sundance Resources SDL. They have recently reported 2Q and drilling results of December.
Could someone please shed some light on potential.
Many Regards, Shane
If an answer will be posted on T.V could you please let me know what time it will be on.

 

[winsol]

An interesting article that suggests that things will move along

http://www.crtv.cm/cont/nouvelles/n...owSection=economie&idField=242&table=noticias

 

[spottygoose]

Hi guys, First time to site. Thought you'd all be interested in this
For all of you in Australia tonight on sky business news, FOXTEL Ch 602 between 7-8PM AEDT they will be answering a question I asked them last week by email on SDL.

Hi,
I would like to know the thoughts of analysts on Sundance Resources SDL. They have recently reported 2Q and drilling results of December.
Could someone please shed some light on potential.
Many Regards, Shane
If an answer will be posted on T.V could you please let me know what time it will be on.

Thanks for that Shane. I was out and missed the show but if you could let us know the response it would be very much appreciated.

 

[Shane]

Hi spot,

Basically all that we all ready know, they said its consolidating..... mmmmm really!! , very insightful
They didnt really say all that much about prospects, he was a chart analyst and didnt go into any fundamentals. Went on to say that the problem with these types of stocks is that they have yet to get an E in the P/E ratio which makes it impossible to price.

My thougts are very simple if its feasable to take out of the ground we have a mine on our hands. Simple, but true!!!
Reading the drilling report, the fact that they are getting another 5 rigs on site as quickly as possible means only one thing, theres iron ore in them hills.
And with the new deposit potential which was not factored in previously. The report is as good if not better than I personally expected
Im sitting tight chucking them in the draw and getting on with living. This project will take care of itself. The management team on board is fully capable of making this mine work (if its possible), the boys there have proven themselves to be able to take dirt and turn it into a succesful mine.

As investors go If Ralf Sarich is on this..... he's no goose, there is certain potential. ( He bought in at 38c )

And hey this mine is a gamble, but with the cards they are holding, I like the odds. Short to Medium term (1 year) Im looking at $1.10... longer term well we'll work that out when we get there.

Ha! no one asked for my thoughts but hey, there they are.

Happy Investing

 

[prawn_86]

Shane,

Can you please provide detailed evidence as to why you think that price target is feasible? As it is nearly 4x the current amount

Simply saying they have IO is not enough, especially in current market conditions.

thanks

Prawn

 

[Shane]

Hi Prawn,
I have come to that figure based on my own tech analysis, based on numerous teqhniqes i have picked up over the past 3 years of Full Time trading. Remember Im not saying it will turn on a dime if it is to get to that price. But i would seriously consider taking some profits off the table around that area ....profit objective.

But if you look at the report they just released today and do a few basic figures...

Potential Project operating margin $30 US/tonne ( Before 08 Iron Ore negs)
35 MPTA = 1 billion /year

If you worked on a PE of as low as 5 your looking at $2.50 a share. (2 Billion outstanding shares)

10X what the price is now and that is being conservative, not taking into account the current price negotiations in iron ore, where they are talking of a 25-75% increase. This would be between 10-$30 extra on PPO margin.
If it takes me to 2011 to get 10x, i'll be a happy chap.
I know this has been said a million times but there are so many similarities between SDL and FMG
Ive been watching this share for the past 12 months and have found this to be the best oppurtunity to get back on board.

I know this is a very simpistic view, but if it was technical I'd be running the project. I fully believe in a KISS approach in trading (Keep it simple stoopid).

Happy Trading....

 

[doctorj]

The prospect looks pretty good and I've got to say, that excluding the three factors I'm about to mention, I think your valuation is reasonable as a rough start.

My concerns with SDL are:

(i) Sovereign risk. British markets understand African sovereign risk much better than down under, perhaps a dual listing is the way to go? That said when you're based in Africa you deserve some kind of discount.

(ii) The prospect is in a border area near 3 different countries. Now, I have to admit to not being up with politics in that part of the world, but given the number of armed conflicts at any one time in Africa, what is top stop neighbouring countries deciding they want the spoils? Also, the proposed rail lines predominately follow the Southern border of the country...

(ii) The HUGE amount of capital required to get this underway. It'd be alright for the likes of BHP/RIO who can fund internally, but they need to raise something like A$3.8b to build a port and rail line. Sure, Twiggy got that kind of money, but the difference is he has mining rights to half the Pilbara (an established mining area that contributes a significant portion of BHP/RIOs market cap) which also happens to be in a very stable western country.

 

[hotmail222]

I know this has been said a million times but there are so many similarities between SDL and FMG

If only SDL could leech off existing rail infrastructure built and paid for by third parties.


Irrelevant side note:
I like to dream of potential for large infrastructure savings that could have been gained if the walloping Belinga deposit in Gabon (just over 100km away) was in the same municipality as the Mbalam deposit.

 

[Shane]

Good points DocJ

And hotmail You maybe onto something there. Wow if it was possible to direct the train line there Imagine the savings. I havent looked into there mine and facilities to much.

Give that company a slice of Mbalam and watch this puppy grow into its full speculative potential... Hey there is a 100 million shares available to round out to 2 billion...
Thinking outside the box is usually how most big things happen.
Unlikely but great thinking. Surely the management team would have thought of that, but if for whatever reason they havent it might be worth putting a note in there suggestion box.
I'll send them an email and see what they reply with. Nothing to lose, riches to be gained



Oppurtunities of a lifetime comes but twice a week, youve just got to be looking for them... unknown

 

[mick2006]

Looks like the 65% increase in iron ore contract prices might have started to wake the sleeping giant that is SDL, we are now due for the latest set of iron ore assays out of Cameroon, what most people are keeping an eye on is the scout drill hole at the Mbarga South Prospect because if they have success here SDL are looking at an extra several hundred million tonnes of high grade DSO ore.

Given the increased interest in the iron ore sector today due to the massive contract price increase any positive news from Cameroon will give a massive boost to SDL's shareprice, maybe we are seeing a bit of speculation today in anticipation of some good news.

 

[Piggy Bank]

Doesn't encourage short term confidence in SDL, especially given general market sentiment, when Dr John Saunders (Non-Executive Director) announces that a company that he holds a beneficial interest in has recently disposed of 100000 shares at 25 cents per share.

 

[Lucky_Country]

Still holds millions in options !
$25,000 is peanuts too these rich guys maybe trying too keep the price down and morale low

 

[Shane]

Great news for the prospects of SDL if RIO's 154% increase takes a hold.
Rio have gone in wanting freight cost difference to brazil. $35 extra for Brazil to send a tonne to china....
Very very good news, theoretically we only have to have half of the iron ore in the ground to get the same type of return.
Fingers crossed

Happy Trading

 

[Shane]

Piggy... granted

But when your holding over 10 million options, 100000 seems a little insignificant. Maybe his kid wanted a new ipod and all the accesories.
If he dumped 50% then I'd sit up and take notice

 

[winsol]

Interesting article on Reuters - some movement??

http://www.reuters.com/article/rbssIndustryMaterialsUtilitiesNews/idUSL2170341420080221

"YAOUNDE, Feb 21 (Reuters) - The Cameroon Iron Ore Company (CamIron), controlled by Australia's Sundance Resources (SDL.AX: Quote, Profile, Research) will begin exporting iron ore from its $2.46 billion Mbalam iron ore project by 2011, its general manager said on Thursday.

Roger Bogne said feasibility studies and an environmental assessments will be submitted before the end of February, and the company would sign a memorandum of understanding (MOU) with the government by March, paving the way for Cameroon to issue an official exploitation licence. (Reporting by Tansa Musa; writing by Daniel Flynn, Editing by Peter Blackburn)"