Scalping the Index - Pointers Please

[CanOz]

At least you came clean in the end Druss.

I hope you can learn something, re-capitalize and trade again one day.

By the way, Great Blog TH. I plan on visiting frequently now with my new found freedom.

Cheers,


CanOz

 

[Broadway]

Short or Long Covering.... Closing of positions. In my experiences 11.30am is a good pivot point and so is 9.30am.

I noticed the changes in mood at these times as well.

For 930 am I put it down to the bidding for the sgxnk opens up. (for trading 15 mins later)

And for 1130 I thought it was the bidding for the HSI opens.(to prepare for trading 15 mins later at 1145am)

But im just guessing.

You can also notice changes in the SPI at 1145 when the HSI opens, and at 12 midday, when the Hang seng stocks start trading. I thought the spi died at lunch because most went to trade the HSI.

4pm is when Dax, estx50 and cac opens, the spi then mirrors these on some days.
410pm is when the avo aussie stock auction closes, and it gets confusing to me at that point. I imagine the pros get some info about the closing ticks up verse the closing ticks down. It gets busy, and seems like people are unloading, and some are loading up to hold for the night. Large numbers in the dom pushing people around. Im yet to figure this out.

Maybe one day.

 

[MRC & Co]

LOL, I hope that was sarcasm by druss. Otherwise, what a waste of time!

I gather THs 'unconventional' methods are simply large volume fade plays, or at least fade plays at that. Generally they provide a very tight stop.

That chart discussed shows a nice bearish flag followed by a double bottom, followed by a double top. I think volume is needed on those charts though, which can ultimately make all the difference.

I like your favourite play TH, ha ha.

he he, a few placements around those levels and we will start calling you "the flipper"! Will watch for you in the order book on the SPI tomorrow!

BTW, are all your 100-300 round trips generally on more than one index? I still don't get how somebody could do that many on one index in one day, I just don't find nearly the set-ups. I am extremelly interested to learn these things a lot more in-depth soon. Guess if you are scalping a few ticks here and there it is possible, but you really must be going mainly by the order book for that quantity of round trips on one index I would gather.

 

[skyQuake]

Also lol@ the 100 contract AUD/USD. Druss, if you're still around, look up 'Risk of Ruin'. Its basically the concept of how raw bad luck can blow ur account.
Safe trading mate.

 

[druss]

I didn't really blow my account.....

 

[The_Snowman]

Sometimes, by the time you figure out you're wrong you've lost your money...ever watched the Hang Seng Move???

No also, but this is not the Hang Seng we are talking about - it is the AUS 200 - on a day the DOW was down triple digits, more bad financial news, every top 30 stock was in the red, and it was already going down - which way do you think is best to take trades?
Of course, there are days the All Ords goes opposite, maybe today will be one of those?

 

[mazzatelli1000]

Of course, there are days the All Ords goes opposite, maybe today will be one of those?

Which only reiterates the point that many posters were making that stops should be used, while a significant other suggested only exits matter.

Cheers

 

[tech/a]

Which only reiterates the point that many posters were making that stops should be used, while a significant other suggested only exits matter.

Cheers

Stops minimise risk
Exits maximise profit.

Both are important.

 

[Trembling Hand]

on a day the DOW was down triple digits, more bad financial news, every top 30 stock was in the red, and it was already going down - which way do you think is best to take trades?
Of course, there are days the All Ords goes opposite, maybe today will be one of those?

There is little to no significant correlation between the opening gap and the "trend" for the day on the SPI.

I didn't really blow my account.....

Because you never had one.

Guys this "expert" is trading a Demo account. And cannot even do that with a correct approach. He is taking trades that would never be executed in the real market and certainly not one carried by a bucket shop. And size that Blows wildly away proper position sizing.

How deluded would you have to be to post demo account balances and still think you are a gun. :screwy:

 

[The_Snowman]

who says you can't pick the bottom? even though it is probably temporary....

 

[mazzatelli1000]

who says you can't pick the bottom? even though it is probably temporary....

Maybe im paranoid

But Snowman, are you and druss related??

 

[druss]

Hey TH,

Let's see your 100+ Trades per day on the index. I really doubt it....

By the way you are right. Those screen shots are a demo account.

I don't want to mislead anyone mate.

Just wanted to prove something to myself that it was possible to trade 100K into 200K on a demo account in a week.

Now TH can you please explain something to me.

How do you possibly calculate a position size based on a Tight Stop when trading on the Index? What is your amount that you "RISK PER TRADE" because that is what position sizing is all about. "RISK PER TRADE"

Number of shares/contracts to buy = Risk per Trade / Stop loss size.

For Example say your Maximum Risk per Trade is $100 and you set a "Tight Stop" of say what is a good example in your case mate? 4pts plus spread? so 6 points? So you are trading on average 3, $5 mini Contracts on the Australia 200 Cash Markets?


Now please tell me what is your Risk Per Trade when Trading the Index. Do you calculate it based on a percentage of your float? If you are making 100 plus trades per day on the index I'm curious to know how you calculate your Risk Per Trade?

If you have an average of 3 Trades 1 winner, 1 loser and 1 Break Even, then you must be a millionaire by now?

Come now do you expect us to believe that you trade 100 trades per day on the index??

 

[Sean K]

By the way you are right. Those screen shots are a demo account.

Ouch.

Nice to admit it but geeesh!!

 

[prawn_86]

If you have an average of 3 Trades 1 winner, 1 loser and 1 Break Even, then you must be a millionaire by now?

Come now do you expect us to believe that you trade 100 trades per day on the index??

Druss its obvious that you are new here and have not done your research. I would suggest a bit of background reading might help you save face in the future

To save TH the time, why dont you check out this thread:
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=10405&page=3

 

[skyQuake]

Its all about expectancy, I have no doubt that TH can do 100 round trips a day scalping. Thats what scalpers do. They make their edge work for them

Expectancy is the expected value of your next trade
E = (Win%)*(AvgWin) + (Loss%)*(AvgLoss)

Say you have a 30% win ratio as a positional trend trader, catching big moves. Your wins are big (say $100) when you catch the moves and your losses small thanks to good risk management (say $10)

E = 30%*100 + 70%*(-10) = $23

Google up position sizing to find out whats best for you. Theres percentage risk, fixed, and more dynamic methods like R multiples (using targets) and Risk of Ruin models.

Finally, I see its good that you can double your acct in a month. Put in $10k to trade and in 2years you'll have over a hundred billion (or a fair bit less when you pay CGT).
You've been 'lucky' so far, but without solid risk management you'll blow your acct. I doubt there are any here on ASR that have not blown their acct at some point in their early years cause they traded like a maniac and didnt know what risk was.

 

[Trembling Hand]

thanks Prawan.

druss as the saying goes... You don't even know what you don't know!!!

It just so happens that I am having a little tickle today with CFDs as well as the real market. Here is a screen shot of the first hours trades.

1 hour --96 trades. just in that one REAL account. thats not including the 40 odd round trips on the SPI. and the day has just started. Wait till the HSI opens.

gotta go ...lots more trading to do today with real money... not pretend stuff that by the way is useless if you are ignoring position sizing... You kidding yourself if you think these results you have posted mean anything!!

 

[prawn_86]

LOL, you are an absolute gun TH

Keep it up and then you can take over the world!

 

[druss]

I'm a skeptic at heart, can't help it

What's you Trading Platform TH?

 

[Trembling Hand]

I'm a skeptic at heart,

Shame you cannot apply your skepticism to your own crap.

You would look less foolish. :bricks1:

 

[korrupt_1]

From my experience... and many would agree... messing around with demo accounts NO WAY COMPARES TO TRADING WITH YOUR OWN REAL MONEY.... hands down... full stop... end of argument...

Its a completely different game...

Any jack or jill can take a $100K demo a/c and do ludicrously large trades and not feel the slightest worry... cos it's only monopoly money if you lose it...

Try doing large trades with YOUR OWN REAL $100k... then we'll see if you are an action or talk kind of person...